Newbie 2107 | Random Music | Postgame

[biancospino]

D3 was over in what, 24 hours? Nobody really contributed anything of value that day, other than you've both come out D4 with different opinions/vote choices the end of D3 than you stated, which is weird.

Can you clarify what you mean? I already had stated end D3 that I would have to vote Brick if they were intent on voting me. I don't see how I was incoherent between days 3 and 4 by casing Brick this morning

[Brickwalll]

To counter HH though, it doesn’t make sense that I would openly declare Bianco as my scum at the end of D3. Then at D4 start she accuses me so my natural reaction is to shift my vote to HH? Why is that logical?

That's an interesting point. If Brick!scum voted me, then they would have a 50% EV unless we assume some bias in hh. On the other hand, by voting hh, then their EV lowers, since hh!town needs to vote back regardless of his alignment and then I have signaled a bias against Brick (so presumably I would vote Brick with a chance greater than 50%). This would imply that voting thusly was against win condition for a scum.
@Hellhound, thoughts on this? Do you think it may be WIFOM?

What’s EV?

Sorry missed this post and also dont really understand?

[biancospino]

Expected Value. I mean the probability of winning

[biancospino]

If you!scum vote me, you win if hh votes me too, which is a coin toss.
If you!scum vote hh, you have in your pow a probability of less than 50%, since I signaled willingness to vote you (that willingness is not as solid now, btw) and then hh would hammer.

[Brickwalll]

Yup, got it. That makes sense. I went and looked on the wiki and that’s what it said so thanks for confirming.

And yes, you are 100% right. And although I only just learnt this, scum me statistically would have better odds voting you D4 and not hellhound. Even the maths is saying it.

Bianco I feel like you have your doubts on hellhound! It just doesn’t feel right!

[Brickwalll]

But could you not do the inverse argument and say from a town perspective. My EV would be 50% to vote you, but by changing to hh it now becomes less than 50%. Thus by changing votes it is actually to my detriment as town statistically

Same logic, correct perspective.

[biancospino]

VOTE: CCGeek

E-1

NOBODY SHOULD HAMMER WITHOUT STATING THEIR INTENTION TO DO SO FIRST

In case they are a PR. Give them an opportunity to claim.

That said, I would be happy to hammer in 24 hours should nothing change.

Did HH not do a lot of similar things then? Because, as you said, that is a lot of theory fluff from Bianco.

My read on bianco is based on their reactions to the fluff and the questions they asked. Nothing else they've done is scummy and, having moved on for some time from the fluff, I consider their posts to be town.

See, this post is one thing it's tripping me up, why would hh feel the need to state that? Surely a scum would want the wagon to end in a hammer, if it's a pr then better. Unless they tried to shop around for a pr claim to kill overnight, or to accrue town cred.
The justification to my tr is indeed flimsy, but...

You are right, I have doubts.

P-Edit: not if you are both town and convinced hh is scum. Then in your pow, voting me would yield a 0% EV

[biancospino]

(Do note that if I had actually voted you, you ought to vote me back as town regardless of your convictions, since if I was not scum town would have lost to a quickhammer.)

[biancospino]

What I need to understand now is if you were intentionally trying to gambit by doing something nonoptimal in an effort to make me conclude you could not possibly be scum. That would be somewhat subtle a gambit and not clearly worth it, and it would require you feigning ignorance when I pointed it out, so probably not? I feel like I'm losing some lucidity here

[biancospino]

Could you please tell me exactly why you did revoke your vote for hh the first time around?

[Brickwalll]

Let’s talk EV and post 1157 after the game, I’m interested in delving into that train of thought more but out of curiosity so will park that to the side.

hh was building town cred in my opinion, potentially PR fishing, but mostly town cred. I do agree it seems a strange thing to say, almost superfluous.

I think post 1158 you are giving me way too much credit. Sometimes the right answer is right in front of you, don’t go talking yourself out of it.

Which vote revoke are you speaking of specifically, my one on D4? (I.e. today irl?)

[biancospino]

Yes, the d4 vote.

[Hellhound1]

Your argument on me not being on BBT wagon was answered before you said it. preempting you now that’s how predictable your scum game is.

Essentially though if I am scum it means in the first 2 days of play I:

Limmed my own teammate and then missed the D2 wagon to vote out a townie. Literally the worst scum ever. Yes, it can be argued it was an elaborate ruse to set you all up for the end game. I admit, I think I am good at mafia, but honestly not that good.

You knew your scum play was scummy and moved to put a narrative to it, doesnt mean i can't still call it out as what it actually is - scum play.
I'm not saying its an elaborate ruse, because after D2 (i.e N2 and N3 kills) as scum you had no other options on NKs. What I am saying is you're now setting me up. Also, notice the cocky language? The "im so great" - look at CCGs posts again Bianco, and see where CCG went wrong. Scum get cocky and over confident.

How was I trying to rush through the hammer? I told you I am so convinced you are scum I put my vote out there. If I was wrong, Bianco would have rushed the hammer and won. She hasn’t rushed either hammer.

Me declaring my intent early and putting my vote out there was showing trust in Bianco that I didn’t think she was scum. Ultimately it is up to her if she wants to rush the hammer. That argument makes 0 sense.

This whole quote is just buddying Bianco, you have no way of knowing (as town) that Bianco is town - but you're suddenly hedging all your bets on it almost as if you DO know this. Also, you unvoted so quickly Bianco may not have time to have hammered. I think it was entirely reckless move that town wouldnt make, you hadnt even given me chance to come into the thread before throwing your vote out. I do think Bianco is most likely town, and so my post was directed to them to ask them not to hammer, but you decided to unvote anyway. Guilty conscience? Knew that the vote made you look scummy?

Bianco, you're being buddied and I dont have the spare time to respond to each of Brick's posts as they make them. Brick is going down the same path as CCG, with the language and change in behaviour, which is always a scum tell. My play has not, at any point, been indicitive of scum. I have played only to catch scum, and along the way have fought to protect who I have believed to be town. Brick, as i've evidenced, has not done this. Suddenly they're making up claims which do not fit what they have said in the game itself.

[Hellhound1]

See, this post is one thing it's tripping me up, why would hh feel the need to state that? Surely a scum would want the wagon to end in a hammer, if it's a pr then better. Unless they tried to shop around for a pr claim to kill overnight, or to accrue town cred.

I already had suspicions on Chazary being a PR, getting CCG to claim PR would've been a nail in their coffin if there was a CC, or we could've avoided an elim on a PR. But getting them to claim is due process and, as town, I want to avoid a mis-lim and stand back to see if i'm tunnelling.

Bianco I can only implore you to go HH. Good luck, I don’t envy your position and certainly won’t hold it against you if you get it wrong.

Geez, talk about emotive/manipuliative language. You didn't actually respond to many of my points, and instead moved over to the pleading & buddying scum tells. Nice.

I only just realised in post 526 I asked everyone to drop CCG and get on Hellhound! LOL!

Had figured them both out D1. If people had followed through with that we would have hit scum either way.

Well thats obviously more nonsense, how on earth did you have us both figured out D1? More manipulation of the facts. Firstly, you pushed hard away from CCG, secondly you've called me town throughout the game. Now you're bending everything to fit your narrative.

[Brickwalll]

Yes, the d4 vote.

Whilst certain enough to lay the vote, hh immediately requested time to post. I think it’s fair in this game to allow them that at least, and also any more info for me can only be beneficial so it was to my benefit too.

Nothing groundbreaking or unexpected in his post though.

[biancospino]

Uh. But since he asked me to not hammer, surely his argument would have been that you were the scum. So whatever he would have said should not have had any relevance whatsoever on your read of him, and so surely the impending post was no reason for an unvote

[Brickwalll]

The difference between you and me now hh is that I am building my case off your D1 gameplay.

Your case in me now is based on my emotive language and cockiness. Whilst to some degree I don’t think you are wrong, my demeanour has changed today. That is just because I am excited in knowing we are on the cusp of winning. I think Bianco knows deep down I am town because based on my gameplay over the three days, I have done enough to prove that.

Ultimately though, it could go either way. Bianco might read it differently.

hh saying he already had suspicions on Chazary being PR is pure conjecture. We have to take his word for it.

It’s not buddying, it’s fact. I voted on an educated opinion that you were scum. It was a risk boldly going out there and placing my vote, even before you had posted. But like I said, I was so sure in my case and opinion I trusted Bianco wouldn’t quick hammer. This is all WIFOM of course. But it is the truth.

[Brickwalll]

Uh. But since he asked me to not hammer, surely his argument would have been that you were the scum. So whatever he would have said should not have had any relevance whatsoever on your read of him, and so surely the impending post was no reason for an unvote

Again, I did it and can’t change it. I thought he should post and any more info was to my benefit. I put a case against him, it’s only right he comment. I put my vote straight back on him and my opinion was unwavered. I wouldn’t read too much into the unvote.

[biancospino]

If you were so sure, why would it matter if I did quickhammer? If you were sure you voted scum, then surely you would be happy of me ending the charade prematurely?

P-E: you put your vote back when I prompted you to, though.

[Brickwalll]

Again, no other explanation than above. You can dig into it as deep as you like, my answer isn’t changing. I thought it was the right thing to do in the moment, unvote giving him a chance to post. It was unnecessary and I did know that, but the gesture of all of us waiting for each to post I thought carried. Again mistaken.

again Bianco, please be guided by 3 days of play and not one mistaken unvote.

[biancospino]

Anyway, I believe I have made up my mind. I'll let any of you time until tomorrow, midday UTC+1 to say whatever you think may sway my judgement; it's possible I may interject with some questions, but may not. (My decision is not based just on today's play, to reassure Brick)

I will post a naked hammer on the end of this grace period. Since I like suspense, and I'm feeling a little mean, I'm not telling who I'm going to vote till then.

[Brickwalll]

You are mean.

[Brickwalll]

Nothing more from me. I will wait for the fall of the hammer.

Gg all.

[RH]

Thank You for the Music by ABBA

Day 4 Count I

Brickwalll (1) - Hellhound1
Hellhound1 (1) - Brickwalll

Not Voting

- biancospino

Notes

• The combined mod ISO is here.
  
• With 3 alive, it takes 2 to form a majority.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2023-01-12 22:03:37).

[biancospino]

Time to put the black cap on.

VOTE: Hellhound1

One last request, please don't reveal your alignment before the official flip comes. It's more suspenseful this way.