Newbie 2129 - Postgame

[SmileyDude1]

its doubt but doubt in a very different way than leek's doubt was presenting

are you thinking it's feigned doubt?

Not a fan of this post, it comes off as being more meant to stoke flames than anything else.

[SmileyDude1]

Cook, who would you say you're leaning towards right now in terms of other scum?

[Cook]

its doubt but doubt in a very different way than leek's doubt was presenting

are you thinking it's feigned doubt?

Not a fan of this post, it comes off as being more meant to stoke flames than anything else.

just trying to get a read on THS's opinions

[Cook]

Cook, who would you say you're leaning towards right now in terms of other scum?

other scum is honestly you atp

[SmileyDude1]

Cook, who would you say you're leaning towards right now in terms of other scum?

other scum is honestly you atp

Alright, so why do you think i'm scum then, would be interested in hearing your case.

this is pretty much a coinflip solve. we can take our time with it i think. it’s my job to make that coin as weighted as possible in favor of a scum lim

ten more days to figure out if the flame of the newbies is snuffed out or gets to burn down in peace

Also, you made this post at the beginning of the day, what changed from then to now for you to reach the point you're at

[TheHoldSteady]

I need cases

[TheHoldSteady]

Cook why do you think its Smiley and Smiley are there any individual tells you think Cook would be scum or is it just interactions with HEM

[SmileyDude1]

Cook why do you think its Smiley and Smiley are there any individual tells you think Cook would be scum or is it just interactions with HEM

I don't buy the scumread on me in Cook's 1153 from a progression standpoint. I don't see how they went from this take here

i TR leek
i null to scumread SD1
i scumread HEM but sd1 and HEM i don't think are partners
i TR THS unless something changed significantly betweeen d2 and d3
my slot is town and i haven't gotten a chance to see flowrbucket really play yet

To positing a fairly strong scumread (it's not like they said they lean towards me, they said they thought it was me in a manner that sounded pretty confident in my view) towards me given the interactions we've had since then. It comes off to me as less "genuine push towards someone they find scummy" and more "i'm pushing here due to being the path of least resistance".

I also don't like their progression in regards to you. This is one of their last posts from day 3

frankly i'm seeing THS/HEM as the pair? i need to read about 11 pages of content before i lock that in

the common theme seems to be hem across the four of us. i think it is helpful to try to draw out an associative on hem, up to your personal preference if you want to go for hem or want to try to kill a partner so that we 100% win d4

Despite holding this view entering day 4, they don't do anything with it. They don't really make any progression on this viewpoint (say recanting or expanding it for example). They don't posit any interrogative questions towards your slot, heck most of their interactions with you were them nudging your suspicion of me along, they haven't really asked any questions of your slot nor have they done any analysis towards you despite saying at the beginning of the day that it was a "coinflip" solve which on it's own is pretty weird.

[TheHoldSteady]

I agree with you that today hasn't been a good showing for her

[TheHoldSteady]

I don't like that she's waited so long to commit to a side after warning us against doing the same thing

[TheHoldSteady]

"i scumread HEM but sd1 and HEM i don't think are partners" to now is also a weird progression

[Cook]

Cook why do you think its Smiley and Smiley are there any individual tells you think Cook would be scum or is it just interactions with HEM

sd1 has not impressed me as far as helping to solve the game. his wishy-washiness on who scum could be feels very much so like trying to appeal to both sides, so that he can appear to be friendly to both (makes him less able to be voted) until one of the townies "slips". once they slip, he can reasonably convince the other one to vote the other one, hammer, and end the game right there.

and i think that's what's happening here

[Cook]

"i scumread HEM but sd1 and HEM i don't think are partners" to now is also a weird progression

yeah, my progression is weird, i know. i don't really care about what i've been thinking in the past, i'm caring about what i'm thinking right

now

, in 3p ELo, and also keep in mind i hadn't read d3 up to that point

[Cook]

I agree with you that today hasn't been a good showing for her

yeah... irl shit, getting home late every day... trying my best guys

[Cook]

I need cases

lemme see what i can do tomorrow

i want to solve as much as you do, ths. i really do

[SmileyDude1]

Cook why do you think its Smiley and Smiley are there any individual tells you think Cook would be scum or is it just interactions with HEM

sd1 has not impressed me as far as helping to solve the game. his wishy-washiness on who scum could be feels very much so like trying to appeal to both sides, so that he can appear to be friendly to both (makes him less able to be voted) until one of the townies "slips". once they slip, he can reasonably convince the other one to vote the other one, hammer, and end the game right there.

and i think that's what's happening here

Except that I was arguably the first person to state my stance on who I thought scum was today in my 1115 (granted Hold posited 1079 during the end of day 3, but they stated doubt on that read in 1105 and 1106, reestablishing it in their 1120). It's funny that you accuse me of fence-sitting when that more so matches the track you took here. You only started pushing my slot after it became clear where both myself and Hold stand in regards to who we think is scum, and it's rather convenient that you fell on pushing me given the stances on the board at the time (With Hold thinking it's me, and myself thinking it's you), especially when you came into the day holding opinions that suggested the opposite.

It's also a misrep to say i'm not trying to solve the game given my 1107 and 1108 to begin the day as well as my 1116, and 1117 (which I never got an answer to) asking questions to both of you.

[SmileyDude1]

"i scumread HEM but sd1 and HEM i don't think are partners" to now is also a weird progression

yeah, my progression is weird, i know. i don't really care about what i've been thinking in the past, i'm caring about what i'm thinking right

now

, in 3p ELo, and also keep in mind i hadn't read d3 up to that point

The problem is what you're thinking right now is being influenced by your agenda. I don't think you naturally came to the conclusion that i'm scum given the interactions we had this day phase and your stances on me last day phase (You're reaching if you say my day 3 made that big of an difference btw. especially given your 1140). The sudden shift away from analyzing Hold (despite positing them as pair with HEM day 3) and towards pushing my slot feels ingenuine and reeks of opportunism.

I'm leaving for work now, will be back later

'

[Alianna]

4.00

Votecount 4.00

Not Voting (3): Cook, TheHoldSteady, SmileyDude1

With 3 players alive, it takes 2 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2023-09-15 19:35:28).

Mod-prodge, this is still accurate.

[SmileyDude1]

Ok, so we're approaching 2 days until deadline here. I've been thinking about the gamestate while I was at work today, and I think I'm ready to commit to a decision.

VOTE: Cook

I was mainly waiting to hear their case on me, in the off-chance they managed to assuage my concern about their read on me being fabricated upon doing so. After some thought, I've come to the conclusion that even if they managed to do so, I don't think it'd change the outcome of my vote here. It wouldn't change the lack of questioning or analysis from Cook towards Hold, and it wouldn't change the issue that Cook's stance in 1153 is overtly convenient for them to take given the positions stated in my 1115, and Hold's 1120.

Cook's play today matches up with how I'd expect scum in their position to play given the stances mentioned above. Note their posting after 1115 and 1120 are stated.
It's mostly turns away from legitimately solving the game and towards nudging my slot. Take these for example

here's my dilemma:

if i go off of partner interactions, it seems like it'd be cook

if i go off of individual tells, i lean smiley

has there been any sort of consistency with my slot being solveworthy? or is it more a "ehh this feels like some of the interactions are scummy and the consensus against everyone who's played it seems to indicate it's scum"

i'm hung up on 729 and 730 and hem and smiley pushing on each other yesterday because those are the things that seem to indicate they wouldn't be a team. and if they're not a team then it would have to be you by default

smiley's vote there

might

be an opportunistic bus? it's

really

weird how that wagon pivoted right at that moment, that doesn't look good on flowrbucket at

all

and yet look at the end of day 2. who's conspicuously missing from the end of this day?

it's flowrbucket and SD1

its doubt but doubt in a very different way than leek's doubt was presenting

are you thinking it's feigned doubt?

These are posts made with intent to manipulate instead of solving the game. Their 1128 suggests that my vote was a bus, which is followed up a post later with a VCA that doesn't really suggest that conclusion, yet, a post later in their 1130 they shoehorn in a reason to suspect that my vote was a bus. They also don't respond to my 1137 afterwards, almost as if they didn't care to take that in consideration when looking at whether it was a bus or not. Their 1147 is much more straightforward, that's just a blatant nudging question that they don't even try to hide behind any analysis. In ELO situations like these scum don't really care which of the other two players wind up being the mislim, they're just looking for the path of least resistance. Given my 1115 and Hold's 1120, a Scum!Cook's easiest path would be to abet Hold's stated suspicion of me, all you'd need to do is keep nudging along until Hold reaches critical mass and just commits a vote my way, and wouldn't you know it, that seems to be exactly what Cook has done this day phase. All of a sudden them completely dropping any facade towards sorting Hold despite their 1026 and 1102 make a lot of sense.

I feel Hold's approach today comparatively feels much more honest. Given my stated position in 1115, I might expect scum in Hold's position to attempt to hedge more towards both myself and Cook as it leaves the most avenues open for them. Instead their play this day phase has more so been spent looking at me, which is giving me that same energy I got from Leek towards Seven/HEM. I don't sense an alternative agenda in their posting today, and their play today matches the stances they've taken earlier in the game, they're more inquiring towards me because of their belief that my 675 was weird, and their general like of CCGeek (Cook slot originator). There's clear progression there and I don't get the sense that they're making stuff up in order to reach their conclusions. Combine this with what i've felt has been generally towny play throughout, and the non-partnery interactions with Seven/HEM (there'd be multiple points where Hold would be undercutting their partner if this was the team) and I don't think I can see myself voting Hold here at this point.



Hold, if you have any questions for me, shoot them my way and i'll get to it as soon as I can.

[TheHoldSteady]

VOTE: Cook

[Cook]

NOOOOOOOOO

[Cook]

VOTE: TheHoldSteady

[Cook]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[SmileyDude1]

Ah, I see .

[Cook]

gg