Open 913 - ketchup777's Notes PT

[ketchup777]

If enchant and I make it to ElO it will be spooky but I imagine I vote for notEnchant

If I’m with Black/HA I have to pool a lot of thoughts. Enchant/Black/HA is also tricky, but not my problem fortunately

[ketchup777]

shame you can’t quote posts from a locked thread eh

[ketchup777]

who goes for what ElO?

Black: ketchup/Enchant/Black sounds like a mess for who Enchant would vote, but probably doesn't risk this. Black/HA/Enchant sounds promising, ketchup/Black/HA scary. So probably goes for

Black/HA/Enchant

Enchant: Knows I townread him heavily so likely places me there, but then might worry I get spooked. Probably goes for the neutral Black/HA/Enchant as a likely win though.

Black/HA/Enchant

HA: k/E/HA is too scary. ketchup/Black/HA is certainly plausible, as is Black/HA/Enchant, but that's a likely loss minus wifom, so Black/HA/Ketchup likeliest ElO.

Ketchup/Black/HA

ketchup: any ElO with me and Enchant in is likely to end up in a loss for the other person, tho Enchant scumreads HA a lot more than Black. yet a HA/Enchant/ketchup ELO might spook Enchant awake. I probably go for Black/HA/me.

Ketchup/Black/HA

[ketchup777]

hmm so yeah, enchant or I die tonight

[ketchup777]

however we then have to reverse wifom those

[ketchup777]

do we?

[ketchup777]

Would black kill Enchant?

[ketchup777]

if she realises the connotations of which ElO HA would go for, it's certainly possible. and i'm not 100% sure who HA expressed a preference for beyond Daisy, tho it seemed to be Enchant followed by me?

[ketchup777]

I die --> Implicates Black. Partially implicates Enchant. HA has mega balls to go for this ElO.
Enchant dies--> Implicates Black slightly more than HA I think, but implicates both of them for sure. could be my ElO as well.
HA dies--> A bonkers kill. who would make it? Probably not Black. Probably not Enchant. Probably not I because why risk it? HA will be alive tomorrow.
Black dies--> Another fairly crazy kill. Maybe HA makes it hoping I pivot, I might make it but probably have easier outs in me/Black/HA, does Enchant make it and just try instapush me to a win? Maybe, but he probably kills me.

[ketchup777]

wait... after OD dies we are not immediately in ElO... oh boy

[ketchup777]

everyone better ask for a fast night ):

[ketchup777]

I’m going to try break ElO

[ketchup777]

time to think of strategies and shoot them down until I find one that helps town

[ketchup777]

what if A and B declared to, and follows through on, voting C or D in a A/B/X ElO 80% of the time (one at a time). Chance C/D wins is 1/5+1/5(4/5)=0.36. So they probably play for a different ElO. What if A/B always went first, though, and went C over D. So in an

A/C/D or B/C/D ElO, there is 80% chance C gets 1v1ed. assuming the chance D votes C is 1/2, C wins this ElO 1/5+1/2(4/5)=0.6 of the time. mafia!C has to play for this ElO, but emerges with a winrate of 60%. hm. ideally we are looking for something >50% for town. idk what I’m doing

[ketchup777]

How winnable is it if there is a conftown/someone everyone is willing to assume is town, yet people declare their intents of who to vote beforehand.

no this isn’t going to work


ahhh

[ketchup777]

wait this isnt even a normal ElO

[ketchup777]

omg this is so messed up

[ketchup777]

we don't know who's going to die

[ketchup777]

omg

[ketchup777]

this is SO messed up

[ketchup777]

LOL

[ketchup777]

AAAAHHHH

[ketchup777]

ok i actually need to think this through crap

[ketchup777]

or do we just do the we vote here and if they die vote here thing

[ketchup777]

hmmm