Newbie 2036 - Game Over

[Cabd]

donkihott has been eliminated...
They were a...

Vanilla Townie

[Cabd]

Night Phase will last 48 hours starting now:


(expired on 2020-11-07 20:08:04)


Please PM any actions to both myself and Micc. Thank You!

[Cabd]

switching to this color for my text as people are having issues seeing the other one on mafia black skin.
Sepia is just better but alas.


Day will start within the hour. I'm currently finishing up dinner prep.

[Cabd]

Satisfaction has been killed Night 3. He was a

Town Mason

.

It is now Day 4.

Votecount 4.0

Not Voting (3) -

Tayl0r Swift, hessian, Fredrick A Campbell

With 3 players alive it takes 2 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2020-11-14 21:58:32).

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I really think it is hessian now.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I would still like to give hessian the opportunity to make the argument that she is not mafia before placing any votes, though.

[hessian]

My case for me not being mafia is: 1) I've been actively hunting, and 2) I think that Fredrick is actually the second mafia.

First, I think that the case for clearing Fredrick based on interactions with Marky Mark is weak, and definitely much weaker than the case for clearing Tayl0r.
- Yes, Fredrick was the second vote on Marky Mark. However, this vote came after multiple people (Satisfaction, Tayl0r, and me to a lesser extent) had already expressed suspicion of Marky Mark. This means that his vote could have been a preemptive bus.
- Fredrick didn't push Marky Mark as hard as Tayl0r did.
- Yes, Marky Mark voted for Fredrick. But this never gained traction -- Fredrick was never in any real danger -- so again, this could just be distancing.

Second, when I look back at Fredrick's posts, I don't see town-motivated hunting; I see posturing. On Day 2, we were ready to eliminate donkihott. Fredrick asked donkihott a lot of questions, but the questions were ... strange. As Satisfaction said,

It feels like you [Fredrick] might be setting up for donkihott flipping green—a world where we wake up D3 and look back and think of how kind it was of you to try to give him every opportunity to save himself.

I also find the last-minute flail at Tayl0r on Day 3 suspicious. That argument was really weak. I think Fredrick was setting up a situation where he could hammer either Tayl0r or me on Day 4, based on which way the wind was blowing.

I'll also hold off on voting until we hear from everyone.

[Tayl0r Swift]

you guys can feel free to cross-vote if you want but im not going to place a vote for a while. i need to spend some time re-reading. it wont be today though.

[Cabd]

Votecount 4.1

Not Voting (3) -

Tayl0r Swift, hessian, Fredrick A Campbell

With 3 players alive it takes 2 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2020-11-14 21:58:32).

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am currently rereading more of the thread.

[hessian]

Fredrick, what's your case for you not being mafia?

What do you think about Tayl0r?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick, what's your case for you not being mafia?

What do you think about Tayl0r?

Regarding Day 1:
I simply found Marky Mark's unvote suspicious when I voted him.

I did not push Marky Mark as hard as Tayl0r Swift did simply because I only found Marky Mark's unvote suspicious while everything else was kind of just suggestive, but not enough for me to push for his execution.

That last point in this section is problematic because I can't really gauge his intention behind his vote on me. I assert that Marky Mark voted me so that you could make that argument. I do, however, not consider this evidence that you are scum as I kind of need to be certain that you are scum before I could be certain of the assertion's veracity.

Regarding Day 2:
When I was questioning donkihott, I was attempting to confirm my suspicions that they were mafia. However, the only things that were suspicious about donkihott to me was his hammer post on Marky Mark where he said "Well, fk it." and that he claimed to townread Marky Mark while simultaneously claiming that he voted Marky Mark because he was having trouble reading the players. I then decided that I wasn't going to push that further as it seems he simply lied about his townread of Marky Mark for whatever reason and hammering his own partner could was unlikely. I spent the rest of my time rereading parts of the thread until ORAM, who replaced Olivia2020, makes a very good case against wiyvern, who replaced Gawr. I agreed with the case and decided that he was most likely mafia. As the reason for scumreading wiyvern was Marky Mark deciding not to push Gawr when he went for lurkers, I thought the best thing wiyvern could do was to tell us more about who they were suspecting and why, but they never did.

Regarding Day 3:
I briefly turned my suspicions to Tayl0r Swift because that's the only person who had not been scrutinised and I thought it was important to scrutinise all players. Eventually, I still thought donkihott was most likely the last member of the mafia after scrutinising Tayl0r Swift and finding that she has not done anything scummy.

About Tayl0r Swift, I am currently willing to lose to her in the event she is mafia because her interaction with Marky Mark is very unlikely from scum.

[Tayl0r Swift]

hessian what are your thoughts on the game? who is scum, how confident are you? why are you town?

[hessian]

Regarding Day 3:
I briefly turned my suspicions to Tayl0r Swift because that's the only person who had not been scrutinised and I thought it was important to scrutinise all players.

I agree that it's important to scrutinize all players. However, I think it's scummy to express suspicion of multiple players in quick succession. The lone mafia is in a tight spot, and has to guarantee a mis-elim each day. This motivates them to try and cast suspicion on everyone else. Since the beginning of Day 2, Fredrick has voted/ expressed suspicion of donkihott, wiyvern, Satisfaction, Tayl0r, and me. The only player who was recently alive that Fredrick

didn't

cast suspicion on was ORAM, and he was NK'ed.

hessian what are your thoughts on the game? who is scum, how confident are you?

To put it in betting terms, I'd assign 80-20 odds for "Fredrick is scum" versus "Tayl0r is scum".

why are you town?

My case for me not being mafia is: 1) I've been actively hunting, and 2) I think that Fredrick is actually the second mafia.

[Tayl0r Swift]

hessian what gives you pause? why do you think theres a 20% chance that its me?

fred what do you think are the odds that im scum and what gives you pause?

[hessian]

hessian what gives you pause? why do you think theres a 20% chance that its me?

Well, while I think that there's a stronger case for clearing Tayl0r based on interactions with Marky Mark, I haven't gotten much information out of her recent posts. So there's some uncertainty there.

[Cabd]

Votecount 4.2

Not Voting (3) -

Tayl0r Swift, hessian, Fredrick A Campbell

With 3 players alive it takes 2 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2020-11-14 21:58:32).

[Tayl0r Swift]

so we are living in one of two worlds:

1) fred is scum and decided to distance from mark early, but then the wagon built and fred got stuck bussing. mark reciprocated the scum read, but neither ever did much to push the other (beyond voting).
2) hessian is scum and thats why hessian was off the wagon. the only time mark really mentions hessian is in his readlist where he gives a bunch of reasons hessian is scum but then turns it around to a mild town read.

my problem is that world 1 looks very plausible, although world 2 seems far more likely for a bunch of reasons.

[hessian]

Okay, so we agree that we can't clear Fredrick (or me) based on Day 1 alone.

What about Day 2 onward? There's 7 players left, and the remaining scum has to cause 3 mis-elims in a row. Fredrick has been working towards causing mis-elims. I have not.

Since Day 2 started, Fredrick has accused 5 out of the other 6 players in the game: donkihott, wiyvern, Satisfaction, you, and me. He's joined both wagons (donkihott, wiyvern), and his stated reasons for voting both Satisfaction and you were weak.

Since Day 2 started, I've been hunting. I've accused 2 players (donkihott, Fredrick), and I gave detailed reasoning for why I thought they were scum. I didn't join the wagon on wiyvern -- in fact, I expressed doubt about it.

I think there's a pretty clear contrast in our actions. Only Fredrick is playing towards the scum win condition.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Okay, so we agree that we can't clear Fredrick (or me) based on Day 1 alone.

What about Day 2 onward? There's 7 players left, and the remaining scum has to cause 3 mis-elims in a row. Fredrick has been working towards causing mis-elims. I have not.

Since Day 2 started, Fredrick has accused 5 out of the other 6 players in the game: donkihott, wiyvern, Satisfaction, you, and me. He's joined both wagons (donkihott, wiyvern), and his stated reasons for voting both Satisfaction and you were weak.

Since Day 2 started, I've been hunting. I've accused 2 players (donkihott, Fredrick), and I gave detailed reasoning for why I thought they were scum. I didn't join the wagon on wiyvern -- in fact, I expressed doubt about it.

I think there's a pretty clear contrast in our actions. Only Fredrick is playing towards the scum win condition.

i mean i was on every wagon too.

[hessian]

Yeah. But Fredrick's also tried to accuse Satisfaction and you as well. 5 out of 6 is over 80%. Do you not think that's scummy? I don't think a person who is seriously hunting would jump around like this.

[hessian]

The other reason I'm focusing on Fredrick is because, as I've said elsewhere, I think the case for clearing you is stronger than the case for clearing Fredrick.

[Tayl0r Swift]

you two should crossvote.

[hessian]

Are you ready to vote?

[Tayl0r Swift]

im not i dont think