this is scuffed but assuming everyone was equally likely to be tracked:
tracker cannot self-target and doesn’t have a redcheck, so there are only 6 possible tracks. Yet it’s still 1/7 cos I don’t know who they are I think
1/7 tracked Ydrasse, no info
1/7 tracked me, I shouldn’t be cced as they can hopefully work out what I’m up to
1/7 tracked KJQ, no one bar Flush really sus KJQ so no need to defend her. hem maaaaybe could track her too.
1/7 track Mango and will know what I’m going for.
1/7 tracked Jackson
1/7 tracked Flush
1/7 tracked hem
1/7 jailkeep Ydrasse (IMPOSSIBLE)
1/7 jailkeep Mango (IMPOSSIBLE)
1/7 they jailkeep me (THEY WILL KNOW IM TOWN SO WILL LET ME CLAIM JK)
4/7 they jailkeep hem, jackson, KJQ or zach
That means it’s 4/14 that I risk jailkeeper counterclaiming me, which is 2/7, which is about 28.57%, so 71.43% my JK claim gets away with it, probably, and scum might take the bait and nightkill me, and then we surely just win on mech as our real tracker/JK will have 2 greenchecks+purple FNing, so we have:
Our real tracker/JK: clear
Purple: clear as FN (people will realise when I VT flip)
At least one of N1/N2 greenchecks from JK/Tracker. It’s possible they go for Purple one night, but we still will have one.
So going into the final 5 we will have 3 clears and win on mech
This isn’t fully guaranteed to work because we also have to avoid limming one of those clears today
But like, surely even in the 28.5% that I could get counterclaimed by jailkeeper, they will carefully think it through and unlikely to immediately CC me, hopefully they can see what I would be going for.
1. check that purple hasn’t claimed FN yet.
2. if they haven’t, immediately say "ok guys sorry if this is wrong I’ve been agonising over it but I’m JK. I targeted Purple n1 (I was in a similar position to you KJQ, I still found Purple pretty sus and wanted to make sure.), and, as there was a kill, Purple must be clear. Well, there is a 1/21 chance that we are in A2 setup AND Purple tried to roleblocker me, but I’ve decided if that is the case i will just take full blame and consider it very unlucky."
3. "I am happy to talk more about why I chose Purple n1, I mean I doubt I’ll need to since like if I am claiming JK unprompted as scum at 2 days before ElO then I deserve to die, lmao. And it’s not like I am going to be CCed. that would be dumb."
4. "Aaaah i was hoping Flush would go through I shouldn’t have unvoted from E-1 I’m sorryyy"
5. "If this is C2 setup and I am our only PR, I’m sorryy. Just treat this like Purple/me are Mason/Mason outed early igggg"
5. "I was very close to JKing KJQ n1 because I thought it was one of us two dying, but in the end I decided if she was PR that would be bad and it was better to try JK scummm and at least if there was no kill I would be pretty dam sure it was purple because purple would not be the n1 kill. unless scum no killed or something but that seems scuffeddddd"
6. “My first time rolling PR and I blow ittttt. please go on to win this one for me”
Sidenote, it doesn’t make sense for scum not to have used Rolecop. If they feared tracker targeting them and ensuring loss, well, they were already screwed by being seen visiting the body
