Newbie 2106 - Postgame

[Alianna]

I want post 600.

[HighPrincessErinys]

Flipping town here would probably flip everything on it's head, in conjunction with whoever drops dead tonight

The word "probably" is giving me red flags here. From my point of view, it would make things way harder. Maybe a perspective slip?

Well, you're kinda right in that probably is an understatement. Dunno about red flags and slips though. "Harder" also depends on what you do with the info and recontextualization from my flip and the nightkill. You might wanan start thinking about it now: If this one

does

flip town, what's suddenly in a whole different light? Same with whoever dies at night and is confirmed by virtue of being dead.

[Wayward Son]

@ HPE Depending on how this game ends, I think I have a tell on you.

[Wayward Son]

Is there anyone against HPE's lim? It kinda makes me leery that there's been so little push back.

Maybe

we're all Town and are all just right?

[Wayward Son]

I might not be here at deadline, so I'm counting on you (BlueSnakelet) to be here. Fingers crossed.

[Aisa]

If nothing changes until 10 minutes before the deadline, I'll hammer.

...Huh. Interesting tactic, but you should probably heed Aisa's advice too. Everyone seems decently certain it's me, and this one doesn't really have any ace up it's sleeve to disprove them, so yeah. But doesn't hurt to apply pressure elsewhere while you wait, no? As a contingency for if eliming this one doesn't get the result you want.

When you wonder if you should townread HPE for not trying harder to save itself >.>
Then wonder if its sneaky doll manipulation tactics are working on you <.<

And I wonder whenever I should town read you for that observation. I mean... Scum!Aisa would want to just elimate Erinys without doubts, right?

Well I just wanted to post the first thing that came to mind, because I didn't have the energy to effort haha. Not sure if that helps or hinders

Quiz?

You mean questions I asked at start?

Well, I shouldn't answer since most didn't

But it's fine, for me it would be 11/10 for both naturally..



In all seriousness though, 5/10 for both.

I'm curious as to what aisa's and snake's answer is

5/10 brave, 11/10 clever

Just fluff

Spoiler:

I've finished 2283, all PTs included. I wish I hadn't spoiled it. It was a good game, and I'm sorry Town lost.

Spoiler:

They had 50 pages on day 1! I gave up on reading and just saw the results. They suspected frog from day 1, how come he survived till the end? I will have to read it at some point.

Spoiler:

Hahaha 50 pages at the end of Day 1 is probably roughly average for a game of that size! Though it's probably about at the limit of what I can "comfortably" handle.

As for Frog... we were about to elim him when he claimed Doctor, we made a poor judgment trusting his claim.

[Aisa]

Basically I am around and will be around to witness the promised hammer, but now doesn't really seem like the time to try any plays. Maybe I'll do some reading if I can motivate myself

[Aisa]

Is there anyone against HPE's lim? It kinda makes me leery that there's been so little push back.

Maybe

we're all Town and are all just right?

About this...
Basically, I think you're Town and am pretty undecided on the other three. So I'm partly outsourcing the decision to people who seem to have a stronger opinion e.g. yourself.
I have seen situations where the whole Town is just right on who the last scum is so I think it

is

possible

[Aisa]

The day deadline is in (expired on 2022-12-17 14:37:10).[/area][/quote] (Ends at XX:37)

[Aisa]

I believe in you BlueSnakelet!

[BlueSnakelet]

I AM PUNCTUALITY!

VOTE: Erinys

[Aisa]

Truly!!

I like how you've made Blue your theme colour!

[Alianna]

3.FINAL

Votecount 3.FINAL

HighPrincessErinys (ELIMINATED): Zombie Detective, Aisa, BlueSnakelet
Zombie Detective (1): HighPrincessErinys

Not Voting (1): Wayward Son

Mod Notes: I, too, am punctuality.

[Alianna]

HighPrincessErinys has been eliminated. It was a

Vanilla Townie

.

It is now Night 3. The night deadline is in (expired on 2022-12-19 14:31:24).

The night can end early if all living players agree.

[Alianna]

Wayward Son has been killed. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

It is now Day 4.

[Alianna]

4.00

Votecount 4.00

Not Voting (3): Aisa, Zombie Detective, BlueSnakelet

With 3 players alive, it takes 2 votes to secure an elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2022-12-26 14:45:46).

[Aisa]

Aha - I am not dead and I correctly townread WS. Perfect. It's just that I have an opinion on who the last scum is, and I'm rather pleased I get to voice it!

ZD, Snakelet, I imagine you've both been through this before, but just a reminder to be careful and only vote when you've made your final decision as to who you think is scum.

[Aisa]

Mod Notes: I, too, am punctuality.

Hehe. Sweet.

Also, sorry HPE

[Aisa]

Well, I see no reason to be mysterious. I think it's the ssslithering serpent. I'll go be with my family for a couple hours, but I'll explain why when I come back.

Where are your two heads at?

[Aisa]

Hmm, annoying, annoying. Looking through the game rn and finding some forgotten faustiv posts that don't quite fit my worldview.

[Aisa]

Well, that will be kind of a useless post unless I point to which faustiv posts gave me that impression. This one did especially: viewtopic.php?p=13571559#p13571559
I guess I just have a weakness for anyone who does meta research. I know it's something scum can do too, but, yeah. It's time consuming and there are easier ways to look towny.

I'll go back to reading now. There will be a big post after I'm done reading, I promise.

[Aisa]

...Although faustiv did play with Wayward Son in Newbie 2104, which would have made the meta case a little less work. Hmm. Well, glad my worldview isn't too threatened and I can go back to confirmation-bias-ing myself

Sorry for spamming. I'm being liberal with posting since it's just three players left, but I'm happy to condense my posts into one longer post going forward, if this is an issue for anyone.

[Aisa]

Yeah, whatever. I read to page, like, 15, and have more than enough to discuss both ZD and faustiv/BlueSnakelet. I don't think I have the brainpower to understand the last 10 pages right now. Here are some things that stand out to me; a couple point in favour of Snakelet, but most of them don't.

1: ZD's early game Just Looks Townier

I'm contrasting ZD and faustiv's behaviour in the early game. Say, until page 5 (post 125).

Look at ZD's posting: they ask a lot of questions to a variety of players. They're proactive, question players on little things, try to get answers, keep track of which are unanswered.

Look at faustiv's posting: it's very noncommittal. "No townreads yet". Is their vote a serious vote? "Might be". Bold strategy, I like it! Ultimately, though, not very town motivated, and not that high effort to fake. Admittedly, though, I?d be scared of being so noncommittal as Town, and so I think faustiv is at least breaking through some mental barriers here, if they are scum.

This is an instructive comparison:

Spoiler:

I don't think voting anyone out on the Get-go would be smart since its a Town Majority no? Could be wrong tho.

you are wrong. we got two ML's.

I don't think voting anyone out on the Get-go would be smart since its a Town Majority no? Could be wrong tho.

You are completely, utterly and terribly wrong.

You see, the more people vote the more they talk. The more they talk the more trail they leave behind. The more trail they leave behind, higher the chances of inconsistency or slip up by mafia, higher the slipups and inconsistency, easier it is for me to prey upon them (not that it ever is hard). Which is why the quiet ones are on my radar, and I imagine in the radar of few other townies. So almost non idiotic mafia think a step ahead and will be very active, but such shallow attempts doesn't work on any decent townie, and I'm well above those. Almost good mafia are like fish in water, they cut through days without anyone noticing. They are not pretending to be so townie that later in the game people start asking why haven't mafia killed them, nor they act so scummy that they get hanged at the town square for everyone to see. But alas, all this effort by them is fruitless. Because at the end of the day, no amount of addition can reach infinity, and I'm the biggest infinity of all. They think 3 steps ahead only to find me waiting for them around the corner.

Ultimately faustiv's reaction just feels like the more likely to be partnered with Froggy. After all, they don't *really* need to explain what a "ML" is to Froggy... they know Froggy is mafia.

2: Early doubts on faustiv!mafia

I think the sequence of faustiv's posts starting here viewtopic.php?p=13564298#p13564298 is pretty well executed. I think there are some clever touches here if this is mafia... for example, waiting to see if cheverie would elaborate on their posting. The posts link up very nicely to what faustiv expressed previously. Definitely impressed at the consistency of their fake reads, if this is coming from scum.

3: ZD softed VT

Just... a pretty unusual choice for a newish player, if they are scum.

4: Froggy throwing suspicion on ZD

viewtopic.php?p=13571928#p13571928
In the linked post, Froggy falls back on a strategy that, to me, feels analogous to his Day 1 start: attack a slot that seems possibly weak that is not their own. Meh. Feel like this point may be a bit reachy. I suppose it's more of a gut feeling I have here that Froggy is not bussing.

5: faustiv did meta research

viewtopic.php?p=13571559#p13571559
I already explained this: perhaps I'm weighing this post too much, but I can't help but see this as +town for faustiv.

6: Possibly inconsistent read on ZD?

Compare the statement that they apparently townread ZD following the VT soft with their first post after the VT soft...

Spoiler:

[...]

tbh this is something i've been thinking a lot about as i townread players for this same reason, especially newbie players, and i've also seen other SE players townread it too. i think it is a towntell as you say, but my thinking is, considering scum know it's one of three setups then, if it's setup column C with either one PR or two masons, i could easily see an SE coaching a newbie partner into doing something like this as it's an easy way to build towncred for them without threat of narrowing down potential CC options as there's only one PR with no doc? seems ingrained into the meta of newbie games so could be an avenue for manipulation if one scum is wise to it.

I did see that soft (80 i think you are referring to) and tr ZD initially, but there's too many red flags on his slot that I can't ignore.

VOTE: Zombie
let's test your immortality

[Aisa]

Also came up with a few questions for ZD:
1. do you think there is an actual inconsistency in faustiv's read on you, mentioned in the previous post?
2. you seemed pretty suspicious of faustiv on Day 2, but thought Snakelet was townier than me on Day 3. Why?
3. why did you throw froggy in the gutter in post 182?

Don't be jealous, Snakelet, I'll have plenty of questions for you in due course...

Also don't worry, I won't go this crazy with my posting every day! Had the time to do some more in depth research today.

[BlueSnakelet]

I can't see Zombie's suspicion on Froggy as busing, so I'm still suspecting Aisa.