Newbie 2124 - Postgame

[CCGeek]

because it feels we have been set up into this ELo on purpose

Could you clarify this?

Because all of us are suspicious of each other. Almost best-case scenario for scum. Off Molla's ISO, (bad) arguments can be made for all three of us. Apart from that CT has had some scum moments across the game and Bella is the universal nullread TM. Meanwhile I have a bad hammer under my ISO and also a lot of potential "circumstantial evidence" to prove s!me, also my dip yesterday. So like, this needs a LOT of careful solving or a reckless 50% vote, which, ngl, I'm willing to make.

[CCGeek]

also finally a pagetop, take that Alianna.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

because it feels we have been set up into this ELo on purpose

Could you clarify this?

Because all of us are suspicious of each other.

Ah, but that's the interesting thing, isn't it? I'm suspicious of the both of you, certainly. You're suspicious of both myself and Bella. Bella, on the other hand, isn't suspicious of you; but is suspicious of me.

Let me rifle through Bella's iso for a bit and show you what I'm currently puzzling over. First, there's you:

Ccgeek is probs town for his test of me

Also, ccgeek is hard town.

Geek's nearly back to being my strongest tr,

I am 99.9% sure mcendu is town and 90% sure geek is.

Then there's me:

VOTE: Chicago
Get a competing wagon going

I'd really appreciate it if you and Chicago could ask me some questions:) especially for sorting Chicago: I can't hold down a firm read on him and I feel like he's kinda under the radar, but sheep believes them to be town (although sheep says maybe not for good reasons)

Like, I'd much rather lim Chicago over anyone.

Bellaphant has a very hard town read on you, historically anyway, and has fluctuated between scum->null->scum for me. Granted, that's just a piece of evidence - his refusal to vote for me doesn't indicate much now that we're in elo.

Given this, though, the hypothetical Scum!Bellaphant has a very clear D3 play - eliminate me as the day and then nk McEndu; leaving with Bellaphant, sheepsaysmeep, and CCGeek; then hope for a sheepsaysmeep elimination during D4. However, when push came to shove, Bellaphant opted to eliminate sheepsaysmeep.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Okay, I've done an ISO on CCGeek for Day 1. I'm moving through this slowly, but surely.

Early D1 sees him go after sheepsaysmeep and Political Clout; both of which I sympathize with as they were scum-readable at the time. 359 is interesting to me - instead of choosing to join the scumwagon for the townie Political Clout, CCGeek declines. Scum!CCGeek would be well served to post this up to E-1, hope for the elimination and then try to turn it around on me D2 (or iamveryhappy, etc.)

447 is the BBmolla wagon. In fact, he's the second to join. 455 is a McEndu ISO and a spirited defense for him, later revealed in 660 to imply that McEndu is a soft-read pr. This would later be revealed

not

to be the case, but in the event that Scum!CCGeek believed McEndu to be pr; the optimal move would be to nk McEndu. (Though, of course, WIFOM)

By contrast, Bellaphant's D1 doesn't look as good - except for the part where he slid off the E-1 vote for McEndu and went to put BBmolla at E-1 instead. The problem is that Bellaphant may not have been present during my hour-long countdown at the end of Day 1 - so perhaps he voted for BBmolla hoping a vague pr claim could delay a day and get McEndu anyway, only for the plan to backfire.

[Bellaphant]

Why would you vote for a player that you think is town and invite the mislim?

because nolim is bad. certain information is better than uncertain information (reads).

No lim is terrible.. honestly, town you would've been better to self hammer than let it get to no lim.
@geek, what happened with deadline?

[Bellaphant]

because it feels we have been set up into this ELo on purpose

Could you clarify this?

Because all of us are suspicious of each other. Almost best-case scenario for scum. Off Molla's ISO, (bad) arguments can be made for all three of us. Apart from that CT has had some scum moments across the game and Bella is the universal nullread TM. Meanwhile I have a bad hammer under my ISO and also a lot of potential "circumstantial evidence" to prove s!me, also my dip yesterday. So like, this needs a LOT of careful solving or a reckless 50% vote, which, ngl, I'm willing to make.

This is a good and fair take on the sitch.

[CCGeek]

oh hi bella i was just catching up with CT's posts

[Bellaphant]

Whereas chigacos 'bella moved onto the scum wagon By.... accident?' post is very bad.

I don't understand how I'm the big 'null read' when I feel me and sheep were the only ones solving yesterday.
P,-edit hi, my little girl has chicken pox, life is tough here

[CCGeek]

what happened with the deadline is that I misread the minutes remaining, and therefore comfortably went to grab dinner and came back to see DL end

[CCGeek]

I don't understand how I'm the big 'null read' when I feel me and sheep were the only ones solving yesterday.

I kinda phased through last day, I need to reread ugh.

[CCGeek]

P,-edit hi, my little girl has chicken pox, life is tough here

D: hope she gets well soon!

[CCGeek]

Whereas chigacos 'bella moved onto the scum wagon By.... accident?' post is very bad.

slight agree on that one, if he really had to bring out a comparison, why flesh out only one side of the balance? feels slightly pockety to me.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

slight agree on that one, if he really had to bring out a comparison, why flesh out only one side of the balance? feels slightly pockety to me.

I was only doing your ISO for Day 1, I just wanted the contrast.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

No lim is terrible.. honestly, town you would've been better to self hammer than let it get to no lim.

Again, not how probability works.
If there are 5 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 20%.
If there are 4 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 25%.
If there are 3 players, the odds of any given player being scum is 33%.
If there are 4 players and you know one is town, the odds of any given player who isn't town being scum is 33%.
If there are 4 players and you know two is town, the odds of any given player who isn't town being scum is 50%.
You should have not eliminated and hoped that sheepsaysmeep wouldn't be nk (likely McEndu would still be targeted) and then tried to move forward from there. Your odds of success would be the same. Killing someone you self-describe as 'obv!town' does nothing to increase the town's ability to win.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Remember, with four remaining players, there's still the outcome of a no lim during the day to force Elo.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

I don't understand how I'm the big 'null read' when I feel me and sheep were the only ones solving yesterday.

Bellaphant, you've been nothing but a null read to me basically this whole game. Case in point, you've spent a large part of the game scum reading me and hard town reading CCGeek, so the elo kind of feels like it should be an easy choice for you, but you haven't even touched that or discussed it when I brought it up.
I get why you haven't voted, but I don't get why you don't seem to be doing anything about that currently in pressuring me or talking to CCGeek about it, or anything like that. I'm going to go through your ISO late tonight and post it.

[Bellaphant]

? Ccgeek literally said the same thing as me and it's fine when he says it?

I also agreed with his post that today doesn't need rushing and that ccgeek sees reasons (mainly presnstedt by me and sheep) why he'd be scum read.

Also, when I give you stuff, you don't follow up; I asked you to discuss your sr on me and it was literally 'you weren't here when we speed-limmed town in 36 hours ' and that I scum read you.

I clearly just raised an issue with your position on me getting of endu, but you didn't pick up on it, instead talking about me 'not doing anything ' again: which is patently false. You are painting a picture like I havent been here or been active, which is just ridiculous

[Bellaphant]

I have more posts than you and we both have twice what geek has and yet you've more than once taken swipes at me for what feels like activity reasons??

[ChicagoTypewriter]

? Ccgeek literally said the same thing as me and it's fine when he says it?

CCGeek never said self-elimination was preferable, so you get called out. It's partially directed at CCGeek too, don't take it personally.

Also, when I give you stuff, you don't follow up; I asked you to discuss your sr on me and it was literally 'you weren't here when we speed-limmed town in 36 hours ' and that I scum read you.

That was kind of the extent of my scum read on you. My entire scum-read on you is less a negative read and more the lack of a positive one. Your Day 1 interaction was nothing particularly standout except for a last-minute switch, your Day 2 is ... yeah. That. I don't particularly like your Day 3 either seeing as how you spent it all scum reading me.

Also, I keep getting this kind of LAMIST vibe from your 'come question me' approach to being townread.

I clearly just raised an issue with your position on me getting of endu, but you didn't pick up on it, instead talking about me 'not doing anything ' again: which is patently false. You are painting a picture like I havent been here or been active, which is just ridiculous

What, the 'chigacos 'bella moved onto the scum wagon By.... accident?' post is very bad' counter? Okay. I get how you don't like it because it's accusing you of being scum. Although its less an 'accident' and more of a 'calculated risk'. You can tell me I'm wrong if you want - that you were around during that hour countdown I had and chose not to post anything.

Also, I'm not talking about your 'not doing anything' now, it's more of a 'not doing anything on Day 2' which is kind of textbook scum behavior if two town-aligned roles are scumreading each other (sheep vs PC) and it's not like you can do anything about it now.

Finally, this:

I have more posts than you and we both have twice what geek has and yet you've more than once taken swipes at me for what feels like activity reasons??

I don't like CCGeek's lack of interaction, but its a very consistent lack of interaction and when he posts he tends to wall. Honestly, most of your posts are so short I feel like your word count is actually behind CCGeek, so is that really a leg to stand on for you?

[ChicagoTypewriter]

Bellaphant's Day 1 ISO:

There's a bit of reactivity early on, but I don't really like anything concrete from Bellaphant until 163, which is the take on me versus PC as possibly tvt, but maybe not. Bellaphant asks heipizhu4 and McEndu for reads, before deciding to wagon me in 184, not a c ompletely unreasonable action. The wagon dies, though.

Also, I found yet another post on CCGeek being town read. Just thought I put this out here.

Geek's town, 100%

Bellaphant unvotes at 340, and moves onto McEndu (which technically started at 337, but the vote came at 362 for McEndu at E-1. 421 he attempts to get to E-1 on the McEndu wagon. 533 Bellaphant unvotes off the wagon, and in 548, Bellaphant puts BBmolla at E-1. Offhandedly offers to start up a iamveryhappy wagon, goes nowhere. Doesn't vote for iamveryhappy, which is kind of interesting - Scum!Bellaphant might want to vote there to draw off the heat from BBmolla and try to start a last minute wagon on iamveryhappy.

[ChicagoTypewriter]

So, more ISOs. (Why am I the only one doing this?)

Bellaphant - Day 2:

It is no secret I think Bellaphant was absent Day 2. There are two posts - 661, which says nothing, and 672. 672 makes the following six points - if BBmolla was bussed it was early or late, the scum is probably on McEndu, sheep may be scum, PC is interesting, CCGeek's a tr, McEndu is town.

The first is undoubtedly correct, we now know that BBmolla was bussed and the possibility is a late bus (either myself or Bellaphant) or an early bus (CCGeek). We also know the scum wasn't on McEndu (though it's a reasonable guess it was.) Though, it should be noted that the two of those points cover nearly all players. Aside from that, nothing of note, really. Kind of shame.

CCGeek - Day 2.


CCGeek reveals that he read McEndu as a soft pr. CCGeek admits that he hasn't been fully following the game in 686. He hadn't considered PC at all to eliminate. (makes sense if town, odd if scum; though could be lying.) Notes that sheep may be an easy miselimination (which explains the lack of Day 3 vote). Hammers in 702 - kind of an early hammer, honestly.

Further analysis - voting PC isn't scummy to me, especially given the mountain of evidence I stacked up and led the wagon with, so I'm not holding the hammer itself against CCGeek - I may hold the timing though. On the other hand, it's not like I unvoted at E-1, so it'd be a bit hypocritical of me to pressure because of that.

[Bellaphant]

? Ccgeek literally said the same thing as me and it's fine when he says it?

CCGeek never said self-elimination was preferable, so you get called out. It's partially directed at CCGeek too, don't take it personally.

Also, when I give you stuff, you don't follow up; I asked you to discuss your sr on me and it was literally 'you weren't here when we speed-limmed town in 36 hours ' and that I scum read you.

That was kind of the extent of my scum read on you. My entire scum-read on you is less a negative read and more the lack of a positive one. Your Day 1 interaction was nothing particularly standout except for a last-minute switch, your Day 2 is ... yeah. That. I don't particularly like your Day 3 either seeing as how you spent it all scum reading me.

Also, I keep getting this kind of LAMIST vibe from your 'come question me' approach to being townread.

I clearly just raised an issue with your position on me getting of endu, but you didn't pick up on it, instead talking about me 'not doing anything ' again: which is patently false. You are painting a picture like I havent been here or been active, which is just ridiculous

What, the 'chigacos 'bella moved onto the scum wagon By.... accident?' post is very bad' counter? Okay. I get how you don't like it because it's accusing you of being scum. Although its less an 'accident' and more of a 'calculated risk'. You can tell me I'm wrong if you want - that you were around during that hour countdown I had and chose not to post anything.

Also, I'm not talking about your 'not doing anything' now, it's more of a 'not doing anything on Day 2' which is kind of textbook scum behavior if two town-aligned roles are scumreading each other (sheep vs PC) and it's not like you can do anything about it now.

Finally, this:

I have more posts than you and we both have twice what geek has and yet you've more than once taken swipes at me for what feels like activity reasons??

I don't like CCGeek's lack of interaction, but its a very consistent lack of interaction and when he posts he tends to wall. Honestly, most of your posts are so short I feel like your word count is actually behind CCGeek, so is that really a leg to stand on for you?

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. Like, if you are town you are handing this to geek on a plate because you won't adapt to the information.

Yesterday, me, sheep and geek /all/ said an elimination would be preferable to no lim. You then used it as a point to attack me? Sheep said a self vote was preferable, and sheep was town.
You won't find anything positive in my iso if you go into it expecting to only see bad stuff. Read the interactions with sheep yesterday and tell me that isn't solving?

Come ask me questions is just what I say. It's nai, but like...you didn't do it .

You can't give me a reason /why/ I unvoted a mislim that was about to happen and voted my 'buddy': just like with the numbers for no limming yesterday, there's no why.

I'm not talking about day two anymore: it was 36 hours and around 15 of them were overnight for me.

If you are town, look again. If you are scum, it certainly explains why you have no /why/ for any of your points against me: nothing about your pushes on me feel natural or like they have a point behind them. You really committed to the pc push and I'm pretty convinced it was because he was on to you day one.

[Alianna]

CCGeek and Bellaphant are being prodded.
I would normally replace CCGeek here as this is his third prod, but due to the gamestate (final 3, 3 days on the timer, difficult to get a replacement, etc.), I am electing not to, and only to search for a replacement in the event that the prod is not picked up. This decision is explicitly not connected to any player's alignment.

[Bellaphant]

Also, re: my read on geek, again, you aren't respondong to what I'm saying. I do, basically, tr geek, but I feel like you are missing the 'circumstantial'' evidence against him that even he is aware of, that's making me paranoid. I've spoken about it: I feel like me and sheep were the only people to point it out.

[Bellaphant]

In posting!!!