Coin Game - Game Over

[DarkLightA]

Lol

Feeling the love

[Ircher]

The person not winning currently should lowball the first one.

[JDGA]

THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA	351	319	Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52
	SAPPHIRE
	RUBY
	EMERALD
	OPAL

DarkLightA wins the diamond with a bid of 52. Bidding for the sapphire is now open.

[JDGA]

THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA	351	319	Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52
SAPPHIRE	102
	RUBY
	EMERALD
	OPAL

DarkLightA wins the Sapphire with a bid of 102, With just one more gem required for DarkLightA to secure victory, bidding on the Ruby is now open.

[DarkLightA]

Root for the overdog guys

[Cheery Dog]

I'm already dead

[Harkonnen97]

ur mum

[JDGA]

THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA	351	319	Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52
SAPPHIRE	102
		11	RUBY
	EMERALD
	OPAL

Harkonnen97 wins the ruby with a bid of 11, keeping his game alive. The emerald is the next gem up for bidding.

[Harkonnen97]

GET REKT

[JDGA]

This is it. The final reveal. Let's start by showing the losing bids, and seeing the remaining coin totals...

THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA	193	219	Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52	1
SAPPHIRE	102	88
	4	11	RUBY
	EMERALD
	OPAL

Harkonnen97 has a small coin lead, which is more than enough to steal the game should he have successfully predicted DarkLightA's remaining bids.

[JDGA]

Then let's see how DarkLightA allocated his remaining coins.

THE FINAL TWO
DarkLightA	193	219	Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52	1
SAPPHIRE	102	88
	4	11	RUBY
192	EMERALD
1	OPAL

He's gone for an all-in approach, bidding almost his entire sum on the Emerald.
If Harkonnen97 predicted this and bid more than 192 on the Emerald, but saved at least two coins for the Opal, he will win. Has he done this?

[JDGA]

Final Two Results

Spoiler: Final Result

GAME OVER
DarkLightA	WIN		Harkonnen97
DIAMOND	52	1
SAPPHIRE	102	88
	4	11	RUBY
EMERALD	192	21
	1	198	OPAL

No! Which means...

DarkLightA, you have bested all opponents to win the Coin Game! Congratulations!

Thanks to everyone for playing. I might run a second edition of it soon, feel free to pre-/in here or via PM if you would like to be a part of that.

[Harkonnen97]

NOOOoo

[Realeo]

/pre in.

Please add some twist. =D

[DarkLightA]

gg all! That was a very fun round

[vonflare]

congrats darklight

[Rhinox]

gg. this was fun! The psychology of bids throughout the game was very interesting and I'm still trying to figure out if there's some optimal strategy for the gem bidding at the end. I'll play again if there's another game.

[Iprobablysuck]

Imma pre-/in for that next one.

[DarkLightA]

I did some data logging while playing:



Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round². When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.

In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.

[Rhinox]

I was doing all that math in my head but I didn't realize how nice it looked all plotted out like that. I got screwed at 16 because I wasn't expecting more than a 5 coin jump lol

I think the reason the early rounds stayed at pretty even rises was because it seemed like many people weren't noticing/anticipating/playing the 2 coin per round increase. I was doing as you say and staying a couple coins above that because I kept expecting everyone to notice the steady increase and adjust play as a result. That never really happened until about half way through as your data shows.

I think meta will come into play and next game the trend will be to accelerate the bids earlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a faster rise at the beginning/mid game and then a leveling off at some point as the bids can't really keep increasing exponentially if anyone wants any coins left over at the end. Assuming there isn't a change to the end game gem bidding scenario that is.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I did some data logging while playing:



Some definite trends. Notably, the difference between refunded bids increased quite consistently with 2/round for much of the first half of the game. Also interesting was the points where this difference increased consistently with 1/round². When this trend slowed down (points 14 and 15 on last graph), it almost screwed me: seeing it jump up again at 16 made me think it was somehow catching up to the past trend, and I expected it to rise about 8 in the round labelled 17. Instead it rose 11 and I got the refund. However it was just luck that I wasn't eliminated that round.

In terms of strategy I think the best thing is to aim for a safe bet. Expected refunded value + a few coins. The refunded amount isn't worth the potential elimination/tiebreak, especially if it's shared.

That was literally my pre-game assessment, and I even told people up front. Safe is better, even if you're last in coins, chances of refunding at 6 left are really high, and your refunds will be high too.

IDK.

[Harkonnen97]

unlucky