The 2016 General Election Guessem

[Not_Mafia]

Ego

[Not_Mafia]

I want to change 2 of my predictions but can't remember a lot of my others, can you change them on your end or do I need to do a new form?

[zoraster]

do a new form please.

[Gammagooey]

538 is my jam

Predictions: Most, if not all of the states that could reasonably go Clinton's way will, 300+ electoral votes that include NC, Nevada, and PA (and more likely than not Florida but I imagine the great superhero Florida man basically going to the polls for them every year and would never be surprised with it going against the rest of the nation)

genuine toss-up states are Ohio and Arizona, Iowa stays close but probably goes Trump, and Georgia goes trump but is the closest polling state out of the non swing states

For NC: I think there's enough early Hillary voters and people pissed off at the republicans for fucking up their sports and/or economy for stupid gender identity bullshit that Deborah Ross gets the senate seat, but it's going to be pretty close. McCrory is the FUCK out of here and I don't even remember the name of the attourney general or whoever that's the democrat that'll beat him

Dems either take the senate in general (slightly more likely) or get exactly 50 and the presidency for """"effective"""" control of it.

Dems don't win the house - the Clinton win will be big-ish but not enough of a landslide to take as many seats as they need for it.

p.s. wait i did remember it's roy cooper i think

[Not_Mafia]

I'd say the only toss-up states are New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada. Hillary won't win Florida without winning Nevada, so really this comes down to Hillary winning Nevada or New Hampshire

[Gammagooey]

eeeeh

if you're using tossup in the way of 'these states matter for deciding the presidency and also could go either way' then sure

but with the nevada early voting turnout I think Ohio and Arizona are going to be closer to the 50/50 line

[theplague42]

I made a not-so-bold-yet-unthinkable prediction.

[theplague42]

I also basically followed 538 b/c Nate Silver is statistics Jesus to me (if I was Christian).

[zoraster]

I've entered PEC, 538, Upshot (NYT) and PredictWise projections. This will make averages cluster together a bit more, but I wanted to see them compete. That said, the projections for all three have 323 Clinton EVs so not a lot between them.

[theplague42]

Is Wang still doing Princeton?

[zoraster]

I think so?

[theplague42]

He was more likely to give higher percentages to Obama for states that Obama won than Nate Silver was, but IIRC he was more off on margins of victory. I got into a debate with my boss yesterday with which was a better result.

[Gammagooey]

(and more likely than not Florida but I imagine the great superhero Florida man basically going to the polls for them every year and would never be surprised with it going against the rest of the nation)

Actually, I just found out someone put real-life effort into this

http://www.tampabay.com/projects/2016/p ... dent-2016/

[RedCoyote]

Final RCP map:



I'm personally thinking Clinton's ground game will squeak through some of these closer states (e.g. FL, NV, NC), but who knows. Of course, 269-269 would be the fitting result for 2016.

[theplague42]

That seems to basically give all the swing states to Trump, except NH.

[zoraster]

Okie dokie. After removing duplicates, aggregators and someone putting in "Donald Trump" as a pick, here's where we stand:

EV High: 365
EV Low: 265
EV Average: 315 (318 Median)

Presidential Races (0% picked Clinton to 100% picked Clinton)
NV: 80%
Florida: 77%
North Carolina: 57%
New Hampshire: 89%
Ohio: 25%
Utah: 14% (18% picked McMullin)
Virginia: 93%
Wisconsin: 98%
Iowa: 30%
Maine: 98%
Arizona: 16%
Colorado: 95%
Maine 2: 70%
Nebraska 2: 32%

[theplague42]

someone putting in "Donald Trump" as a pick

Lol

[D3f3nd3r]

Zor can you send me my picks please? I can't remember what I selected.

[zoraster]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

You can see everyone's choices there. The results tab is probably the most helpful.

[McMenno]

and someone putting in "Donald Trump" as a pick

did no one else think of this

[zoraster]

Preliminary results (still a few things left to be officially called, but assuming the results stick where they are):

1 . Saru 50
2 . TheDominator37 48
3 . CooLDoG 46
4 . Glork 46
5 . Mina 46
6 . LlamaFluff 45
7 . theplague42 45
8 . Not_Mafia 44
9 . ChaosOmega 43
10 . racefan12 43
11 . Zoraster2 43
12 . 538 42
13 . PredictWise 42
14 . SleepyKrew 42
15 . The Upshot 42
16 . Mitillos 41
17 . pickemgenius 41
18 . RedCoyote 41
19 . errantparabola 40
20 . KuroiXHF 40
21 . PEC 40
22 . DRENCH 39
23 . vonflare 39
24 . xRECKONERx 39
25 . Wraith 38
26 . Allomancer 37
27 . Fluminator 37
28 . Gammagooey 37
29 . Equinox 36
30 . Save the Dragons 36
31 . UpTooLate 36
32 . Aeronaut 35
33 . BROseidon 35
34 . Lowell 35
35 . Empire 34
36 . chamber 31
37 . Cogito Ergo Sum 31
38 . T-Bone 30
39 . Cabd 29
40 . TwiszTed 29
41 . randomidget 26
42 . AxlegreasersPieInTheSky 24
43 . Maestro 24
44 . Kublai Khan 23
45 . AniX 21
46 . bipolarchemist 19
47 . n 19
48 . D3f3nd3r 16

[D3f3nd3r]

I really should have tried.

[TwiszTed]

Top 40, I feel like a pop star.

[N]

I really should have tried.

How did you do worse than me? I picked Clinton for everything.

[TheDominator37]

Dang came close