8:4 Vanilla Nightless [TM2015] - GAME OVER

[Kagami]

Hey guys, reading up.

[Kagami]

well... Didn't Kagami say that she didn't want to play...?

I didn't, especially a vanilla. I owed cabd a good turn.

[Kagami]

Ok, so I've got the gist of it.

GI, what happened in 272?

[Kagami]

Hoopla was blatantly aware that the best town strategy was to form a block because otherwise it would be nearly impossible to get solid scum lynches.

That was her analysis, and she started out playing it as town.

If you think sotty is scum, hoopla is town at 114.

[Kagami]

I'm ok with a sotty lynch if we do the vengeful thing starting with day 1.

[Kagami]

Kagami, got anything to say that's especially interesting? Why are you into the vengeful thing?

Because sotty is going to flip town, and it will make this game infinitely simply when day 2 begins with a theory discussion between greyICE and hoopla about why it's important to follow our hearts and how we shouldn't let dead townies tell us what to do.

[Kagami]

In large part because greyICE wants to lynch him.

Why do you think he's scum, and why do you think grey is town?

[Kagami]

I read that, serephim. It's not compelling. I agree that sotty's play isn't amazing, but I've seen far worse from town being tunneled into the ground.

GI's posting is bizarrely inconsistent, which is ironic given he says the same of sotty. The best point he makes is the token thing.

He complains that sotty is willing to town block with players who haven't even posted against, pointing to a list that is probably just people sotty likes/has played with before. Later hoopla shows up later saying she'll sheep GI and ABR and just gamble that they're town. Hoopla gets a solid town for that because hoopla understands the need to town-block.

He should have had hoopla as town at 114, given his suspicion of sotty. Instead, there are sprinkles of "hoopla might be scum" in the token conversation and hoopla's opening is "deliberately uninteresting." He decides hoopla is town at 272 for whatever reason. I asked him about it, and apparently GI doesn't do pre-flip associations. Meanwhile, Eddie is revving a chainsaw in 258.

sotty is apparently pathetic and the worst liar ever. And is a legendary scum player in the next post.

There are other little things too. I don't believe town greyICE would ever utter "scum caught for the wrong reasons." He's just too smart to believe that. 277 is another ridiculous thing I don't think town-GI would say. "One of my townreads is scum" reads as "I'll have to 180 on one of my townreads once my scumreads are all dead."

And yes, a lot of this oddly revolves around a greyice-hoopla interaction. I think they're scum together. The early hoopla-scum sprinkles might indicate town-hoopla, but it looks like it was just distancing that grey decided not to bother with since he inexplicably has a townread from everyone.

So on to that townread. Why is greyICE town, seraphim?

[Kagami]

I'm ok with a sotty lynch if we do the vengeful thing starting with day 1.

Then let's do it.

[Kagami]

ICE is scum, sotty will request a venge on him. He will try to wiggle out. We'll lynch him and his team will be painfully obvious from the events of today.

You of all people should be happy about that, eddie.

[Kagami]

I like the token argument. I do think it's strange not to find tokens critically important in a vanilla game when you start with nothing else, especially in RVS. That's probably the first thing I'd have poked at if I were here in the beginning. From another source, I'd give it more credit.

[Kagami]

There are other little things too. I don't believe town greyICE would ever utter "scum caught for the wrong reasons." He's just too smart to believe that.

Ooh, this is juicy.

That's one of my trademark phrases, Kagami. I use that all the time, because one of the best scum tells in the whole wide world is when someone starts bitching that you're wagoning them for the "wrong reasons". "Why me, fry me" is one of the strictest rules in Mafia, and the best. And anyone who says otherwise is a shitter or scum.

You were Silverwolf? I am starting to LOVE the people showing up to this party with chainsaws.

You're serious? This makes me sad.

[Kagami]

If we're lynching sotty, I want greyICE dead tomorrow on a town-flip.

If we agree on this, I'll even bring the rope to the hanging tree. Yes, I get that ABR is a maverick, but I want some recognition that this should be a thing from everyone else.

Sadly, I don't actually believe anyone is going to let sotty dictate the lynch. I don't think that will happen even if we get to 6:4 (which is pretty much identical to 7:4 in terms of town-needed-to-be-dumb), because the greyICE-hoopla theory chat was probably just soft-distancing.

It legitimately is not a bad idea, though, and despite MS's statement to the contrary, mislynched town often have the best reads. That's usually why they're mislynched.

[Kagami]

Kagami is suddenly absolutely convinced I'm scum, but willing to hang Sotty first, because he likes my points on tokens.

Nope, but nice try. Sotty is town, you are not. The reason I'm ok with lynching sotty is that there's otherwise zero chance in this gamestate of lynching you, the actual scum. For strange cosmic reasons, a lot of people think you're town and they simply can't all be partners. Once you're lynched, your team has no prayer. As you correctly stated, this setup is a snowball-fest.

And please point me to when I "suddenly" became convinced, because I had you as scum on my first read through.

[Kagami]

You were trying to sell me on Hoopla town right here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6727800

So don't give me that.

If you interpret that as me trying to sell you on hoopla town, you need to read a little more carefully.

[Kagami]

I think that's correct, yes, but if that's really what you're getting out my posts, then you're missing something pretty fundamental.

[Kagami]

Ice is voting sotty.

Fixed, thank you.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: greyICE

[Kagami]

It would be easier if you just said whatever it is you fail to understand. I've been pretty crystal clear here.

[Kagami]

GreyICE is scum.

Grey wants to lynch sotty. GreyICE pulls back when confronted with actual repercussions on a town-flip. That makes sotty 907% town.

Grey wants to townblock with hoopla, like, really wants to. For no reason. Then he's called on it. Now hoopla is maybe, kinda, not town, but definitely not someone he wants to lynch. Hoopla is a buddy.

Reread the game fresh with a greyice-hoopla scum perspective. It's magical how much things make sense.

[Kagami]

Because I was calling him out on the sotty push. He thought it would be a freebie, but now people will re-evaluate him.

The key is "if they are unsure;" what aspect of greyICE's iso suggests that he's unsure?

[Kagami]

Sorry, easter has been busier than I thought. Just got a prod.

Anyway, I challenge anyone to read greyICE's iso and find a post that both has content and is not contradicted by another of his posts.


Also, think about 364, which he probably thought was a nice clean fluff post. It indicates that he believes scum inherently react to accusations in an alignment indicative fashion.

Now look at his reactions to accusation. Oh wait, there are none. None at all. He goes to painstaking efforts to pretend they don't exist. Even 364 itself he cuts out the entirety of my argument. In 654, my belief that sotty is town is "magic," because he's deliberately establishing a mindset of "attacks on me don't exist."

It's intentional, it's obviously so, and it's a scum strategy.

[Kagami]

o, good timing.

[Kagami]

shiow me. use quotes.

[Kagami]

So I ask you, Kagami, do you stand by that piece of shit argument? Will that be your hill to die on? Or are you going to realize what you said, and run like a coward?

You post this, more or less forcing me to hang around so you can't get away with your scum garbage.

Then you run.

[Kagami]

You respond to posts. You do not address accusations in any of those. Not one.

In your list you even include 364, wherein you deliberately dodge the vast majority of 354, you only "respond" to the most minor of points.

You believe that you will be "caught for the wrong reasons" if you actually defend yourself.

[Kagami]

Anyway, I challenge anyone to read greyICE's iso and find a post that both has content and is not contradicted by another of his posts.

You're allowed to play this game too.

[Kagami]

... And accusing me of running away, because of course no piece of flailing is complete without the raw panic portion of tonight's entertainment!
...

And yes. I guess it's not actually running away, since you've decided to post, but that's indicative enough.

There are minutes between our exchange. 2 minutes per post. You were there and watching.

It doesn't take town a full hour to respond to a post.

[Kagami]

hurr durr.

[Kagami]

You respond to posts. You do not address accusations in any of those. Not one.

In your list you even include 364, wherein you deliberately dodge the vast majority of 354, you only "respond" to the most minor of points.

You believe that you will be "caught for the wrong reasons" if you actually defend yourself.

Well then, you lying little dog turd, please feel free to enumerate those points.

Pretty sure I enumerated those pretty well in 354 itself, but when I have more time I can elaborate.

But the general principle is that your iso makes no sense. Everything you post is contradicted by something else.

Your townreads are people who call you town. Your scumreads are people who question your alignment.

[Kagami]

Meh, he's scum, but he's probably telling the truth about why he didn't reply.

[Kagami]

What about it?

[Kagami]

Do you have any thoughts that happened during your enormous lurk-fest?

You are using this "wagon" on me as an excuse to avoid everything else that happens in this game. You get to be a

Tabula Rasa

by tunneling. Is your plan to hope to get out of it on day 2? Or just salvage the SilverWolf slot by pushing one town lynch before you go down, and leave the least information possible in your ISO?

Who is town, Kagami? Who is scum? Do you have a town read on Seraphim? I know you have one on Sotty because "I voted for her" which is hilarious in and of itself.

Scum

GreyICE (TBD)
Hoopla (Confectionery Animals)

Zar Empire (The Westeros Circlejerk)
wgeurts (Young and Beautiful)
Metal Sonic (team nocaps)
Nachomamma8 (Gestalt)
ZZZX (TEAM WITH NO NAME)

EddieFenix (The Leftovers)
Seraphim (The Unviggable Vegetables)
Sotty7 (The Kliq)
Albert B. Rampage (Blue, Meth, Blade and Associates)

Town


Now it's your turn.

[Kagami]

ABR is town by play independently, but most notably because he forced you to back down on your hoopla town-read. There's no "tacked on."

Yes, I do think the players who have shown some critical thinking re: your alignment are town for it.

I would love to hear the reasons for both your scumreads and townreads. I've read your iso many times at this point, and I haven't seen reasons beyond touchy-feelies.

[Kagami]

This game is painful. I don't understand how nobody else is willing to call greyICE on his garbage.

Just look at 795. This is coming from someone who's saying that I'm throwing everything in the kitchen sink at him.

He complains that I copy and pasted the names from the OP. Obviously I did, and I obviously didn't try to hide that.

But of course, greyICE didn't do that! In 699, he totally wrote those off the top of his head. Including correctly capitalizing everyone's name but wgeurts's, all while chatting to people in his apartment. He also reorganized the OP, because that's the sensible thing to do, he just formatted it differently so he could have another rubbish argument to throw at me.

Anyway, I'll try to look at the game when I can from a non-greyICE-scum standpoint and dig up non-associative reads, but I find that to be a much less reliable strategy. If I'm lynched, which looks reasonably likely, I'd much rather GI hang tomorrow than Nacho.

I'm still waiting for a single compelling argument for GI being town. I get that he's posting, but he's posting nothingness.

[Kagami]

Nacho, who on your team have you consulted about me, and what have they said?

[Kagami]

I haven't consulted anyone on my team about you. Llamarble said that he liked my push on you earlier, and also that he disliked 666 because of the "I challenge to X" bit and because scum are best at faking ire when pointing out problems with town posts, which has been pretty much the entirety of your game.

I don't think I have any ire for games on this site, though I'll admit to frustration in this case. If I didn't have three other teammates counting on me to move the gamestate in the correct direction, I probably wouldn't be expending so much effort here.

I think you're aware, and if not you then ferry, of how I like to play. I'm not interested in reach-outs or interacting with people in general. I like to move the gamestate in favorable directions through more subtle means, or by simply voting correctly. You know I hate dealing with people who are loud and aggressive, because I am not myself loud nor aggressive even though we all know that being loud and aggressive garners townreads for no discernable reason.

This game has been a difficult largely because I'm hopelessly out of position against a player who is very clearly scum. If I had four dayvigs, I'd be shooting some of the people who are most universally townread, and probably save this game in the process.

[Kagami]

Kagami, quit acting stupid or you'll prove Titus wrong and make a big embarrassment out of her.

Alright, screw it, tell me what to do.

[Kagami]

Why isn't Kagami voting his 2nd biggest suspect Hoopla?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: hoopla

[Kagami]

But of course, greyICE didn't do that! In 699, he totally wrote those off the top of his head. Including correctly capitalizing everyone's name but wgeurts's, all while chatting to people in his apartment. He also reorganized the OP, because that's the sensible thing to do, he just formatted it differently so he could have another rubbish argument to throw at me.

Note for those following:

699 is my reads list

, which he asked for. Kagami is criticizing my reads list, friends. Including the fact that it was incorrectly capitalized. You want to know why it had such bad grammar? Because I wrote it off the top of my head because I remember ALL ELEVEN PLAYERS IN THIS GAME. ((Well okay, LLD pointed out I was giving Zar a free pass for bad reasons, but you know what I mean ))

Explanation for his? La de da. La. De. Dah.

You don't actually read anything, do you?

[Kagami]

According to you, ... is a certain scum tell.

You keep saying rubbish like this and are never able to back it up.

[Kagami]

My list is very straightforward.

I jumped into this game with a reasonably matured gamestate about 10 pages in. GI looked like scum, I asked him some quick questions to verify my appraisal of the gamestate, and he responded with points that confirmed my suspicions. At first, there was almost no resistance to GI's pushes, but then some people did. Those people are town. A lot of the other players who I put as null were floaters, those floaters are townread by GI and townread him back, but they can't all be scum.

Now ABR has asked me to look at things from a non-biased perspective, and I'm going to try to do that.

[Kagami]

...
Oh fine fuck it.

Vote: Sotty

I'm sure I'll get ANOTHER call for inconsistency from Kagami, but the number of fucks I give is actually literally zero.

I want to address this too.

Switching votes is not inconsistent. Changing your mind is not inconsistent (in the context of scum motivation). Even voting a player you believe to be town is often not inconsistent. There is nothing wrong with the above post, and trying to say that I would have an issue with it is an attempt to discredit.


Here's a lesson for everyone from kagami's school of mafia. It's much nicer and gentler than ABR's.

Inconsistency as a scumtell is not about vote-hopping or being flexible. It's about betraying an underlying belief that shouldn't be mutable, typically as tool to falsify town or scumreads.

For example, saying that someone is an amazing scum player just after saying they're the worst scum player in the universe is not consistent with a town frame. Believing that the key to victory is a solid townblock which decides lynches together is not consistent with believing that the correct strategy is to let lynched players decide the lynch. Insisting that the townblock needs 5 players in not consistent with certainty that the player being lynched today is scum. Townreading one player for wanting to form a townblock with players for whom there is no belief that they are town is not consistent with scumreading another player for the same, independent of a future change of heart.

[Kagami]

venge: greyICE

[Kagami]

(Hoopla flip reduces the probability that GI is scum, but not by enough)

[Kagami]

venge: greyICE

I am assuming this was supposed to be a vote.

It wasn't, but sure.

I just want everyone to recall 287-290, though I see GI already has a defense set up in 288.

[Kagami]

That's the idea. I'd prefer to lynch him straight-up, of course, but I'm not going to get the near-unanimous town vote necessary to do so.

[Kagami]

Nacho, you killed us N1 in capcom because we were tunneling your scumbuddy. What do you think we would have done on day 2, dropped it?

[Kagami]

Most of our reasons voiced in thread weren't actually that compelling to me, and the one that was was largely dismissed.

We couldn't push you, and we didn't find you especially scummy at the time. We were just highly confident bro was scum. Pie had commented that it would be funny if the scumteam were all defending bro, but we didn't really believe it.

Your defense of GI consists of: Scum wouldn't make a bad push that could be easily rebutted. Rubbish rhetoric shouldn't be scrutinized. It's totally ok that GI was positioning to scumread one of his townblockerinos because wagons were going fast (I don't think they were at that time)? A "challenge" to find a single consistent point in someone's iso is rubbish because making a consistent iso is easy.

Is that an unfair summary?

[Kagami]

I just feel like people are townreading GI for anger and aggression, and then rationalizing that.

[Kagami]

Rubbish rhetoric shouldn't be scrutinized.

Calling Sotty trash was clearly rhetoric he was using to push her lynch/his opinion of her play in this game. It has nothing to do with his opinion on Sotty's scum play back in the day, which was legendary. Taking these two instances and calling them a contradiction and pushing it as such is stupid.

I'm sorry, but no.

If you believe someone to be a talented scum-player, you don't then say "haha, I caught you, because you're terrible!" If anything, play that resembles bad scum play is a town tell. I've been in exactly this position and correctly townread players who I know to have too refined a scumgame to make certain plays. To do the opposite is bizarre.

[Kagami]

I haven't "cleared" anyone, except maybe ABR and sotty after a GI scumflip. While I recognize it to be an unpopular opinion, "townblocking" is stupid. A vengeful strat has a wildly higher EV

[Kagami]

Can you not do something other than argue about GreyICE?

I can, but that only weakens my position in a situation where I'm already likely today's mislynch. (hint: I have scumreads in your townblock, which makes them effectively untouchable until there's a favorable scumflip)

[Kagami]

I have the worrying sense that you're town.

[Kagami]

once the kiddies are asleep. Need a longer post for it.

[Kagami]

back.

[Kagami]

This ended up longer than I thought it would be. =\

Spoiler: wall

Cabd asked me if I wanted to replace when the game was about 10 pages in, I did a very quick skim-through, then accepted the replacement. On my initial read, it looked like hoopla-GI was a thing, and yes, I was biased against hoopla initially because he had a bad vote on SW.

I didn't like several minor points on GI initially, one of the biggest points being the town-blocking business. His opening in the game is essentially dumping on sotty a lot, and then throwing some townreads out in 261. In addition to wqierts, ABR, nacho, ZZZX for town, there was my wagon, which seemed like a stealthy way of adding Hoopla to the list. A few posts later he explicitly adds hoopla, for evidently a completely different reason.

I asked him about the hoopla thing later. He gives a rubbish response, when there were multiple reasonable responses he could have given, and ultimately ditched the townread before the day is over. So yeah, I found that pretty damning.

Then there was the theory discussion. That's a separate post from me that I'll make next. Short story is that Hoopla's vengeful suggestion was good, townblocking is reasonable after there's a scumflip, and that townblocking early is the optimal scum strategy.

Game continues, GI jumps on eddie for chainsawing. People go back to sotty. I suggest that we start vengeful day one, which is by far the best way to get to GI, since it looks like sotty would declare a venge on him, and I know that lynching GI is going to be like pulling teeth otherwise. Obviously, I don't expect people to actually go along with it, but I thought it might yield some reaction.

Seraphim is the one who intercepts, asks for why, and I oblige. This is where scum-seraphim votes kagami; it's a perfect alternative wagon for divided votes that ensures town lynches stay in the lead. I don't think I had votes at the time, but had plenty of negative sentiment, which is the juciest jump of all. He doesn't, and I see no scum motivation to change direction on GI regardless of grey's alignment. (I didn't really think of it in such depth initially, but it's worth being out there)

Rest of the day, you're largely correct that my opinion wasn't getting changed. I don't like any of the rest of GI's behavior. GI jumping on seraphim was bad. GI explicitly says that vengeful is pro-town (but not kagami's weak-sauce stuff) was bad. A lot of his argument is in dismissing what I'm saying as "throwing everything at him," while accusing me of the silliest things like the reads-list reordering.

The tl;dr is that yes, it's accurate to say that my greyICE read didn't really evolve, but was there something that you think should have changed it? I call him out for his rubbish, and he mostly ignores it or says that it's terrible. I don't understand why I should be expected to change my mind here. Sure, I can think of semi-viable scumsets that doesn't include GI, but those all seem very improbable.

The only interesting thing that has happened to influence my GI read is the hoopla flip, which destroys the hoopla-GI theory. That doesn't change the fact that GI's play has been independently scummy, and he's the most viable lynch of the players I actually think are scum with reasonable confidence.

[Kagami]

2) Seraphim is the one who intercepts, asks for why, and I oblige. This is where scum-seraphim votes kagami; it's a perfect alternative wagon for divided votes that ensures town lynches stay in the lead. I don't think I had votes at the time, but had plenty of negative sentiment, which is the juciest jump of all. He doesn't, and I see no scum motivation to change direction on GI regardless of grey's alignment. (I didn't really think of it in such depth initially, but it's worth being out there)

Seraphim strongly scum. Interesting given what's coming up in a bit.

You have to be doing this on purpose and I don't understand the motivation as either alignment. Do you think you're not going to get called on it?

[Kagami]

Read the post.

[Kagami]

Or just look at your (2) again. I'm not saying that seraphim is scum in that paragraph.

[Kagami]

did seraphim vote kagami?

[Kagami]

That was back at 291 and can't possibly be confused as a vote associated with

"Seraphim is the one who intercepts, asks for why, and I oblige. This is where scum-seraphim votes kagami; it's a perfect alternative wagon for divided votes that ensures town lynches stay in the lead. I don't think I had votes at the time, but had plenty of negative sentiment, which is the juciest jump of all. He doesn't, and I see no scum motivation to change direction on GI regardless of grey's alignment. (I didn't really think of it in such depth initially, but it's worth being out there)"

This is a paragraph about seraphim being town. Not scum.

[Kagami]

294*

[Kagami]

I... what?

Is English your first language?

Let's clarify it a bit, though I struggle to think of how else you could have interpreted this. It looks like you just read to the semicolon.

Seraphim is the one who intercepts, asks for why, and I oblige. This is where scum-seraphim

would vote

kagami; it's a perfect alternative wagon for divided votes that ensures town lynches stay in the lead. I don't think I had votes at the time, but had plenty of negative sentiment, which is the juciest jump of all. He doesn't VOTE: , and I see no scum motivation to change direction on GI regardless of grey's alignment. (I didn't really think of it in such depth initially, but it's worth being out there)

[Kagami]

I guess it's a little convoluted, but I was typing as thinking.

[Kagami]

Please bring sanity, mollie.

[Kagami]

If you're town and ICE is scum, then Nacho/ICE/Sotty/Seraphim would be the now likely scum team. Which is going in the opposite direction I'm going now.

Heya wgeurts, this is interesting. I get that it's highly speculative, but how did you come up with this particular team?

[Kagami]

VOTE: nacho

[Kagami]

Prepare the drone!

[Kagami]

VOTE: Sotty

[Kagami]

Hmm, how about that.

[Kagami]

If kagami's town I'm blacklisting her, I don't even.

While I understand the sentiment, my behavior will be pretty well explained when the team PTs are opened at the end of this event.

Sufficed to say, team mafia has been a very negative experience for me.

[Kagami]

Unsure, I've barely read the past few days and sotty flip changes things.