Signs and Void (Game Over) [TM2015]

For Team Mafia 2015 Games and Information
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Post Post #4369 (isolation #200) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:50 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

1) I can tell you with 100% clarity that your stance on TTH has affected my read on her in no way whatsoever. She is town because of the claim, not because you said so.

2) I don't care. I'm not even saying you're scum for it. I'm saying you're infuriating. 175 pages in, I would prefer that one flip to 1000 posts about your reads and how great they are.
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Post Post #4412 (isolation #201) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 5:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Shadoweh, do you think it makes sense to block someone whom I could track? Aronis seems like an unhelpful choice. Better off Baning one of his buddies, if he is scum, so that he's likelier to have to risk getting caught doing something.
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Post Post #4417 (isolation #202) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:15 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4413, Cheetory6 wrote:You're ignoring this CDB:
Shadow wrote:>_> or there was a proactive blocking of results on Aronis, or he's immune to tracks, or your sign was just detected since at least 3 people have correctly chosen a sign so far just out of claimed people. Deli, have you forgotten that even the goons should be Detecting and/or Tracing rather then no-actioning? The fact that you returned -nothing- makes it much more likely something went wrong.

I think it's actually kind of weird that you're so confident that you think you being able to target Aronis will be reliable at this point.


I'm not saying any of those things are impossible, just that it seems weird to close down an avenue where I at least know that "no result" wouldn't be because I submitted the wrong sign. I'm not sure I agree with Shadoweh's ultimate conclusion that "no result" makes it more likely that something ballsed up. For one thing, Detect and Trace aren't Major Night abilities, right? So if Aronis were vanilla or a goon, that'd be a reason not to see him go anywhere.

PEDIT: As if that was a slip. Come on, Cheetory.
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Post Post #4418 (isolation #203) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:16 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Missing from that post: "...but I agree that it's certainly possible that things have gone wrong. I've even talked about some of them Today."
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Post Post #4421 (isolation #204) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I haven't assumed that. I just think it's probably suboptimal to shut down a line of inquiry that could be slightly more trusted than others on account of knowing that any tampering doesn't come from a 50-66% chance of just guessing arbitrarily wrong.
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Post Post #4422 (isolation #205) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Not to mention that the main thing I wanted to do was to have Shadoweh talk some more.
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Post Post #4425 (isolation #206) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:30 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

None of that is wrong. It also doesn't preclude my being blocked, but then I might get blocked anyway but that still shouldn't stop me from thinking about how best to use my role for a chance of getting useful info. There's also the possibility that, if there is a blocker (something that's still not been established, anyway, beyond a vague assumption that scum blockers are probably a thing), somebody else becomes a higher priority block than me before the Major Night.
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Post Post #4428 (isolation #207) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:34 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4426, Cheetory6 wrote:Then why would they not just kill you if there's a higher priority roleblock target?


What part of "I might as well act as if there's a way to wring out information from my outed role" didn't you read? Of course I might die. That's pretty much permanently on the table from now on. Doesn't mean I shouldn't look to maximise any potential that I have left.
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Post Post #4431 (isolation #208) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:36 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4427, Cheetory6 wrote:Like, you taking Aronis off the table is dependent on you feeling like your track is going to be useful for keeping him under watch as scum.
Why in the world would you think that?


It is maybe not likely that my track could yet expose him, but possible. Do you disagree with that? Because, if you do, I'm just going to log off now until you wake up.

PEDIT: What are you even talking about?
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Post Post #4434 (isolation #209) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:44 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4432, Cheetory6 wrote:
CDB wrote:I might as well act as if there's a way to wring out information from my outed role
"I'm going to pretend like my role is useful instead of actually trying to find scum". Is basically what this comes across as, and it doesn't come across as being real.


Except no part of that quote there talks about not trying to find scum, or even implies it, and I think you ought to come back to it in a few hours at which point you'll probably realise it's a dumb assertion in the heat of the moment.

CDB wrote:It is maybe not likely that my track could yet expose him, but possible. Do you disagree with that?
Maybe if Aronis was scum with no roleblocker on his team and if he was a complete idiot considering you've telegraphed to the world that you were going to target him both nights which I also seriously question in hindsight why you'd do this in either case. Then yes. I agree with you.


I haven't even committed to targeting him on Major Night 2, at all. All I am saying is that leaving open the possibility is a decent idea. I am actually leaning towards targeting someone else but let's say I detect someone correctly again this Minor Night, then that person gets lynched before the Major Night. I'm left with a choice between targeting someone whose sign the scum know that I know (Aronis or Bulba) or taking a 33% shot on targeting someone else. Options are good and, if Aronis is scum, it forces scum not to discount the possibility of me targeting him.

PEDIT: Again, not even saying he should be off the table as a lynch. You've put that in my mouth.
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Post Post #4436 (isolation #210) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:49 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Think of it like this:

For as long as the possibility exists that I can track Aronis with perfect sign knowledge, a scumteam including Aronis has to do something to cover for that every Major Night, whether it be blocking me or killing me or whatever else they get to do. That is a scum action used on me, an outed role, that isn't being used on somebody else. Just the possibility of me doing that forces them to respond if Aronis is on their team. I don't even know if Aronis is on their team and, frankly, have more reason to think that he's town Today than I did Yesterday, even if only a little, but it still doesn't make sense to shut down that advantage for no reason when there are four scum in the game.
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Post Post #4438 (isolation #211) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:56 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4435, Cheetory6 wrote:
CDB wrote:PEDIT: Again, not even saying he should be off the table as a lynch. You've put that in my mouth.
How is it not implied that you would be against baneing him but not lynching him on the merit of him being able to be kept under wraps by you? That makes no sense to me.


When I made the post, I wasn't thinking about who was going to get lynched. I was thinking about who was going to get Baned. I've been very clear about the fact that I really, really, really want to see where people's votes are going to inform my feelings on who we should lynch. I was looking at the Bane votes because I wanted to hurry up with that and it occurred to me that Shadoweh's vote was suboptimal from my POV. I agree that the logic probably extends to lynching other suspects instead (and, hey, you note the parts where I've gone on record as saying that I'd probably start with a UT vote, and the fact that without knowing whether or not there's a scum blocker who may or may not have got my sign right, my no result on Aronis is a slight reason to mitigate suspicion from Yesterday?) but, at the same time, I'm not going to turn down an Aronis lynch if he's scummy enough just because of my role. But Baning is lower stakes than lynching, and Baning's what we're talking about right now.
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Post Post #4439 (isolation #212) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:58 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4437, Cheetory6 wrote:And maybe if that's what you'd originally been saying, I'd be just a little bit wary of you right now.
But what you just said is a far-fucking-cry from this:
CDB wrote:Better off Baning one of his buddies, if he is scum, so that he's likelier to have to risk getting caught doing something.


WHAT PART OF 'LIKELIER TO HAVE TO RISK' MEANS 'DEFINITELY WOULD BE A HELPLESS VICTIM OF MY 100% CERTAIN TRACKING SKILLZ'? Do I have to throw seven caveats about possible roleblockers into every post I make?
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Post Post #4440 (isolation #213) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:04 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

If this bullshit could stop happening, that'd be great. At least last time I got to figure out that Gamma was town.
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Post Post #4448 (isolation #214) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:25 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4447, Cheetory6 wrote:This game is actually a fucking barrel of fun.


I'll give you that much. :neutral:
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Post Post #4466 (isolation #215) » Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:42 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Agree that scum was likely involved in that mastin Bane push. To the extent that it almost makes me want to doubt some of my townreads, because a lot of them are on that wagon. Ever since the threat to claim it was stupid as hell to run her up for it. And, hell, this is from someone who absolutely hates how she's playing in this game, but what did you think was going to happen?

Just uuuuuggh everything about this Minor Day makes me want to hit things. Can we
please
get this over with without any more damage. Espeonage'll suffice as a mostly known quantity, ActionDan's an acceptable alternative, please for the love of god let us get to lynching things.
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Post Post #4541 (isolation #216) » Fri May 01, 2015 3:12 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'd go along with Baning Cheetory if it'd stop any chance of him being lynched.

Should have some time to dig into suspects tomorrow. On the list of people I want to look at most pressingly: UT, DV, Formerfish, Bulbazak
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Post Post #4588 (isolation #217) » Fri May 01, 2015 4:19 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Unbane: Espeonage
Bane: ActionDan
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Post Post #4651 (isolation #218) » Fri May 01, 2015 1:06 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Not going to vote yet because I'm a bit tired to be sure that it's the right play - will revisit quickly tomorrow and maybe talk to team-mates - but I think, if we trust mastin*, she's the play here rather than me. Accepting the caveat that scum may already or could very imminently narrow down either of our signs and render a lot of this a bit moot ... though protection wouldn't save me/TTH if scum really wanted us dead, a doctor who doesn't have to worry about matching sign could target one of us and, if scum really want me/TTH dead, they'd have to use up both Unmakes to force it through, which would give us another Night with only one nightkill (and another Night without an Alquin death). As long as we actually use both lynches this time, that would be a really welcome advantage.

*definitely an active question, I'm going back and forth
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Post Post #4656 (isolation #219) » Fri May 01, 2015 9:14 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Oh, yeah. Balls. OK then.

Boon: ChannelDelibird
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Post Post #4657 (isolation #220) » Fri May 01, 2015 9:16 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 2, hitogoroshi wrote:Unless your role states otherwise, I will not distinguish between "no result", "roleblocked", and "did not match sign" for why a particular ability returns no result.


Can confirm that my role does not state otherwise.
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Post Post #4758 (isolation #221) » Wed May 06, 2015 8:55 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Given what information has already been needlessly given to scum, I think claiming failed traces (i.e. claiming not to have used detect) is a terrible idea and that we should stop discussing it immediately so as to give nothing away.

I have a day off tomorrow and, once I've done my civic duty, I intend to look through some suspects. UT will definitely be among them. As has been said before, while I agree with UT's opinion on the quality of this thread, I don't think he's doing anything that he couldn't or wouldn't do as scum and I haven't seen much by way of righteous scum-killin'.

VOTE: UT
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Post Post #4801 (isolation #222) » Wed May 06, 2015 10:47 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4800, singersigner wrote:He's actually the same as RRR


I strongly disagree with this. Tone is clearly off.
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Post Post #4803 (isolation #223) » Wed May 06, 2015 10:49 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Fenchurch says, and I agree, that refusing to lynch somebody on grounds of their having been Baned, even if they look like scum, is a bad idea. In a game with this many moving parts and potential to surprise, waiting is dangerous.
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Post Post #4899 (isolation #224) » Thu May 07, 2015 6:59 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I haven't yet gone delving into the many pages of this thread yet - wanna say I'll get some of that done tonight to distract myself from election results - but I have been talking a bit with my team-mates and they agree with me that UT is a good lynch.

Fenchurch says that his play here reminds her of him in Wicked Mafia, where he was scum (Osseus pseudotripodis) to Fences' town (Ampersand) and spent a lot of time trying to discredit their read on his slot. What he's doing to me and, in particular, Gamma here sounds the same. Neither Patrick nor I think that his suspicion on Gamma sounds at all genuine - I honestly think it's the most suspicious thing that UT's done in this game - and Patrick says that UT seems to have clocked that he can't really back it up and has just started giving unhelpful snarky answers and hoping that nobody presses it.
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Post Post #4906 (isolation #225) » Thu May 07, 2015 7:14 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 4900, Untrod Tripod wrote:Show us some scum motivation, not just "he's being a meaniehead"

That's some pathetic nonsense, dude


Well, I literally just linked to a game that shows that you do that as scum. And I don't doubt for a second that you'd be able to tell that this is Gammatown if you were actually town.
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Post Post #5053 (isolation #226) » Sat May 09, 2015 11:01 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Tomorrow. Definitely. Tomorrow. Probably.

Still strongly want UT dead anyway.
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Post Post #5060 (isolation #227) » Sun May 10, 2015 4:06 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Sad to see you go, DV, but fair enough. Good luck with stuff!

The sooner that UT is dead and we can move onto the second lynch, the better.
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Post Post #5144 (isolation #228) » Sun May 10, 2015 11:11 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Uuuuggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

That claim is basically the only thing that would make me unvote, because I agree with Gamma that everything else about UT does not indicate town mindset.

Oversoul, that dickery was needlessly water-muddying and I wish you hadn't done it.

I'm going to talk to my team about this. My heart says lynch UT, my head says look elsewhere. And if UT comes back scum then singer suddenly looks reeeeeal bad now.
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Post Post #5145 (isolation #229) » Sun May 10, 2015 11:13 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Like, scum definitely claims Alquin. Definitely
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Post Post #5146 (isolation #230) » Sun May 10, 2015 11:14 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Especially if their sign is Candle anyway
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Post Post #5147 (isolation #231) » Sun May 10, 2015 11:23 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Btw, Titus, I've talked about kylo permutations before (Oversoul asked?) but, like, dunno what you want to say about it other than that it generally sucks and no lynches were a dumb idea, thanks NOBODY IN PARTICULAR. Guess we oughta lynch scum, what's new?
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Post Post #5159 (isolation #232) » Mon May 11, 2015 3:10 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5153, Untrod Tripod wrote:there's no goddamn way scum claims this


Are you kidding
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Post Post #5165 (isolation #233) » Mon May 11, 2015 3:17 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

CES thinks that lynching UT is worth the risk, especially without an obvious alternative of similar scummitude.

Patrick acknowledges that giving him a night is strictly better ... but says that UT's play is a perfect fit for scum making a false claim, and he's probably the best shot at a scum flip that we could get right now. He doesn't buy that UT actually believes in anything that he's saying, and has shown zero concern about the prospect of being run up before (As I note: Alquin doesn't want to draw a lolwagon for being a caustic nonhunter, which UT has been risking for a long time with his play in this game).

The word 'Alquin' is the only thing that gives me any doubt about this lynch, but frankly I don't think that UT is telling the truth. He makes much more sense as scum trying to draw out the real Alquin. I think he needs to die.
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Post Post #5169 (isolation #234) » Mon May 11, 2015 3:22 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5167, Oversoul wrote:We do if we leave him alive today. He is already baned, we could get lucky and hit another scum with our two lynches today. :shrug:


Tell me anyone you're nearly as confident in flipping scum as UT. I haven't got anything anywhere near that.

Also, now that the game has ended, Empire replaced into this game FROM a scum slot. Interesting that he chose a scum slot initially.
Makes me les certain about his replacing in.


Why would it? Empire didn't choose to be scum, he put three tokens on being town in that game and got
super
unlucky. His replacing into here makes total sense in that scenario.
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Post Post #5176 (isolation #235) » Mon May 11, 2015 4:38 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Vezok, Gamma is
so town
.
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Post Post #5179 (isolation #236) » Mon May 11, 2015 4:59 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5178, Titus wrote:Vezok, scum would not advocate for a UT lynch when they could kill him.


That's a shitty argument. If UT were actually Alquin, you bet scum would want him lynched.
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Post Post #5182 (isolation #237) » Mon May 11, 2015 5:06 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5180, Cheetory6 wrote:And I don't know how anyone can be so absurdly confident that UT is lying without going back through his ISO with the claim in mind.


Feel free to show me why I should change my mind but UT is not playing like Alquin. He is not playing like town. He is making the exact claim that any scum would make in his situation to buy an extra Day and possibly draw out the real Alquin.

Have you played much with UT? Met him IRL? I have. He doesn't believe any of this bullshit he's typing.
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Post Post #5185 (isolation #238) » Mon May 11, 2015 5:10 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5183, singersigner wrote:Actually, I believe it more reading his ISO knowing he didn't have to care or be a tryhard.


Except he did have to care, because drawing a wagon for not caring needlessly exposes Alquin.

He would've bad to play the entire game from the beginning with that claim in mind.


Let's say this is the case, even though I believe that any scum would claim Alquin now. So? Why wouldn't he have planned it from the start? I almost always know my fakeclaim from the start of the game as scum, and if I were scum with the Candle sign I'd be even more likely to fakeclaim Alquin. It's arguably strictly best for scum to have planned for someone to claim Alquin at some point.
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Post Post #5191 (isolation #239) » Mon May 11, 2015 5:18 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

People are getting so scared by the word Alquin that they're not asking simple questions, such as "why the fuck did UT try to claim that scum wouldn't claim Alquin", even when that's patently ridiculous. He's just saying words, and none of them hold up to scrutiny. Cheetory, stop acting as if it's a straight choice between lynching townUT and not lynching townUT. I don't remember you townreading UT much of anything before.

Singer, I can understand you being reluctant if you already knew that his sign was Candle, but can you really understand UT's Gamma read, for example? I just ... nothing he's saying makes sense, and it just seems like he's playing on our fear of losing Alquin as a last gasp.
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Post Post #5195 (isolation #240) » Mon May 11, 2015 5:24 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Also a bunch of lurkers need to get in and do some shit about this; we're not going to kill scum dead without you. Espeonage, Aronis, mastin, Formerfish, I'm looking at you. Not good enough Today.
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Post Post #5287 (isolation #241) » Tue May 12, 2015 12:00 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5254, Shadoweh wrote:I also think letting himself be baned and acting like it doesn't matter actually points towards him being Alquin. It's a really good fake-VT claim.


Scum who thinks that they're probably getting lynched anyway happily accedes to being Baned to avoid it hitting a scumbuddy who'll actually be alive at Night.

Scum who thinks that being Baned might stop them from getting lynched happily accedes to being Baned.

While Alquin is probably happy to be Baned, so is scum.
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Post Post #5288 (isolation #242) » Tue May 12, 2015 12:03 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

That said, I am rereading some stuff now so that I can settle on who my other priority suspects are. I don't think that we should chicken out on the UT lynch, but he's not the only scum.
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Post Post #5289 (isolation #243) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Christ, this is a disgraceful position to be in with seven days left to do two lynches. Nobody has more than two votes.

Spoiler: Unofficial votecount
(2) Untrod Tripod: Gammagooey, ChannelDelibird
(2) Formerfish: singersigner, Shadoweh
(2) Titus: Eseponage, Aronis
(2) Espeonage: ActionDan, Oversoul
(2) Bulbazak: TellTaleHeart, vezokpiraka
(1) DeasVail: mastin2
(1) Oversoul: Untrod Tripod
(1) vezokpiraka: Bulbazak

(4) Not Voting: DeasVail, Formerfish, Cheetory6, Titus


We need to get moving, quickly. I'm trying to reread things to clarify but I've done work to organise my current reads and this is the group of people that remains when I eliminate everyone whom I would prefer not to lynch Today:

ActionDan, DeasVail, Espeonage, Formerfish, Shadoweh, vezokpiraka, Aronis, UT

I'd definitely vote for any of those to get a lynch, but if you put a gun to my head right now, I'd say my highest-priority targets are: UT, Aronis, Formerfish and DeasVail. Those latter two are the ones that most need reviews from me - that's the main purpose of my imminent reread - but I haven't had much of a read on either of the two for a long while beyond some generic 'Marquis seems carefree' stuff from like D1 that definitely will no longer suffice after 210 pages. It also helps that they're the two who overlap between my pool of plausible scum and that of Gestalt, whose reads matched mine enough to make me want to listen to what they had to say.

If we're saving the UT lynch for Tomorrow,
then my top preference is Aronis
. A no-result on my track on him doesn't really tell me very much about him (there are a lot of ways for him to still be scum with that result) and he's just generally been a huge lurksack with nothing to contribute. As of now it's been nearly five days since the last of his 76 posts. Almost none of those posts have contained anything relevant, interesting, or particularly compelling to make him look like town who cares about scumhunting. He basically hasn't said anything other than 'Titus and Espeonage are scum', with no real elaboration or push, for coming up to a month.

UNVOTE: Untrod Tripod
VOTE: Aronis

This really ought to happen.
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Post Post #5291 (isolation #244) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:34 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5290, singersigner wrote:GAWDDAMNIT CDB IF YOU TRY TO START A WAGON OUT OF NO WHERE AFTER JUST COMPLAINING ABOUT HOW THERE WEREN'T MORE THAN TWO VOTES ON ANYONE ON SOMEONE WHO HAS THE EXACT SAME POSTING/ACTIVITY HISTORY WITH MORE CONTENT AND LESS EXCUSES THAN SOMEONE WHO ALREADY HAS A WAGON AND IS IN YOUR LIST OF VIABLE LYNCH CANDIDATES I SWEAR TO GOD.


Creating a one-vote wagon isn't that different to jumping onto a three and, as I said in the post, I'm more confident of Aronis than Formerfish. There are also people naysaying against Formerfish, I think, who should have less trouble voting for Aronis.

I think it's important that we get scum with our first lynch here. The game needs it for morale purposes. And right now I'm more confident of Aronis than Formerfish. I think we can make it happen. You should help.
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Post Post #5293 (isolation #245) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Gah, fine. It's just frustrating because I feel like I owe Formerfish's slot much more of a reread before it's fair for me to vote, but let's get on with it.

UNVOTE: Aronis
VOTE: Formerfish
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Post Post #5297 (isolation #246) » Tue May 12, 2015 2:31 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I traced Bulbazak last night. I'm not going to tell you who he detected but I don't think it was the targeting choice of someone who was trying to learn how to nightkill people.
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Post Post #5299 (isolation #247) » Tue May 12, 2015 2:40 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5298, Cheetory6 wrote:Do you think baned Bulbazak would target anyone who might seem like they might be a nightkill target?


Yes. He might not carry out a kill on a Major Night but I would certainly expect him to detect a possible nightkill target so that he can pass on their sign to a buddy more likely to carry out a kill. The Bane doesn't make him any easier to Trace than anyone else, so that's not a factor either.
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Post Post #5302 (isolation #248) » Tue May 12, 2015 2:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Checking for Alquin is possible; that's a part of which I hadn't thought. However, on balance, I still think that his target makes him look town to me. I'd rather not vote for him.

You should probably be voting for Aronis instead.
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Post Post #5307 (isolation #249) » Tue May 12, 2015 3:03 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5304, Cheetory6 wrote:
CDB wrote:You should probably be voting for Aronis instead.
Is this the only reason you're townreading Bulba?


Bulba would probably be in my pool of acceptable lynches if not for this, but I owe him a reread in general and I think that I'd probably rather see a DeasVail flip before his as I think DV's probably scummier and I remember their early interactions being extensive and interesting. I wouldn't cry if we lynched him, but I think that this + the fact that we already did some of scum's work for them by Baning him if he's town are worth leaving him alone for the time being.

Also, why are you chastising me for not being on Aronis when you're also not on Aronis? >.>


I don't think I could be clearer about the fact that I'd prefer to be voting for Aronis right now if that wagon had the support. I'm on Formerfish because Singer and Shadoweh are right that I should be consolidating onto a wagon rather than starting a new one, but if you + other people voting for Bulbazak switched to Aronis I'd be on that in a flash.

PEDIT: Oversoul, I got Booned so I don't need to match sign Tonight. For the time being, I'm not budgeting for my prospects of surviving long enough to deliver a tracking result after Major Night Three.
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Post Post #5314 (isolation #250) » Tue May 12, 2015 3:15 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5310, Cheetory6 wrote:Oy CDB.
If Bulba flips scum, then whoever he apparently targeted would probably be town.
Extra incentive, no?


That'd be nice, but it doesn't make me think that Bulba is more likely to be scum, just that a scum flip from him would be somewhat useful.

PEDIT: UNVOTE: Formerfish
VOTE: Aronis

Cheetory, Dan, with us!
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Post Post #5338 (isolation #251) » Tue May 12, 2015 3:52 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5332, Oversoul wrote:Aronis wagon is literally TSO 2.0


TSO was town.
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Post Post #5340 (isolation #252) » Tue May 12, 2015 3:58 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Actually read Aronis's iso then, when you've finished crying, come back here and vote for him. TSO was town who did town things. Aronis hasn't done town things.
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Post Post #5347 (isolation #253) » Tue May 12, 2015 4:05 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

What? No. If we lynch scum, we reread like crazy and then lynch the most likely buddy.
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Post Post #5348 (isolation #254) » Tue May 12, 2015 4:05 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I am not giving up my agency just because you heart townblocs.
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Post Post #5350 (isolation #255) » Tue May 12, 2015 4:09 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

The only artificial mechanic that I'd endorse is a hard deadline on the first of each Day's two lynches so that we have enough time to work on each.
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Post Post #5352 (isolation #256) » Tue May 12, 2015 4:16 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I was in favour. Can't remember if I was around enough at the time to say as much, but I think it was good practice. Given how spread-out the votes were only a few hours ago, I think we should have kept it going Today.

Anyway, the more pertinent point that I'm trying to make is that I want to make sure we lynch scum first so that I can look at interactions to drive the second lynch, but I'm not willing to do that before we get a scum flip, so I'm absolutely not willing to let somebody else restrict choices immediately after the first lynch is agreed.
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Post Post #5374 (isolation #257) » Tue May 12, 2015 5:49 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5372, Aronis wrote:VOTE: Bulba

When I'm lynched and flip town, please fulfill my dying wish and lynch Titus. Thanks.


No. If you're town, fucking do something about it now. If you're town, you have a responsibility to not be a lazy sack of nothing. Given that you've just shown up now that there's a wagon on you, I can only assume that you have been around over the last five days since your previous post. Why haven't you been posting? Nobody is going to listen to you if you don't do anything.

If you're scum, keep doing what you're doing.
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Post Post #5392 (isolation #258) » Tue May 12, 2015 11:19 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5391, Untrod Tripod wrote:and mastin and CDB claimed things that are very likely bullshit


How do people think these are real opinions
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Post Post #5394 (isolation #259) » Tue May 12, 2015 11:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5393, 4nxi3ty wrote:bullshit as in scum that fucked up a fakeclaim? Or bullshit as in how mastin claimed to have an expiration date in drawn on arrival?


Nobody's one-sentence opinions are a good way to sum up a 215-page thread.

I have sympathy for your position but you're gonna have to at least skim the last 20 pages or something to get a vague idea.
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Post Post #5401 (isolation #260) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:03 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

oh c'mon singer seriously
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Post Post #5408 (isolation #261) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:44 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I can understand doubting my role
a bit
, but not on my play. Mastin's role seems really, really plausible, though, given how many kills can potentially be arrayed against us.
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Post Post #5410 (isolation #262) » Tue May 12, 2015 1:45 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Also, UT, forgive me if you've said this really recently but it's nearly 2am and I'm getting delirious: Where do you stand on Aronis?
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Post Post #5427 (isolation #263) » Tue May 12, 2015 2:05 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

It's not that he doesn't post very much, it's that when he does post, it's
nothing
. Like, could somebody point me to anything that shows any amount of caring about the town? And then he shows up as soon as we wagon him after five days without saying anything?
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Post Post #5482 (isolation #264) » Wed May 13, 2015 2:53 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In the interest of getting on with it, I'm willing to get on board. Bulbazak, you should claim pronto.
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Post Post #5485 (isolation #265) » Wed May 13, 2015 3:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Nope. I'm going to be around pretty constantly for the next several hours so I'll be here to vote if "pronto" isn't met.

Have been thinking about the Aronis wagon a bit. I still think there's absolutely zero town motivation shown and he should probably have replaced out long ago if this is all he's willing to bring to the table as town, but I think part of the reason why I'm still voting for him is because I'm annoyed that people keep saying that this vote came out of nowhere when I've been suspicious of Aronis for the majority of the game. That's when it feels like people are trying to discredit the origin of the wagon, like I just plucked it out of my backside.

Fuck, I convinced myself.

UNVOTE: Aronis
VOTE: Bulbazak
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Post Post #5506 (isolation #266) » Wed May 13, 2015 3:53 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I imagine it's hard to paraphrase a gif
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Post Post #5528 (isolation #267) » Wed May 13, 2015 9:35 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'll say this now before the flip is revealed: Bulba detected vezok last Minor Night.
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Post Post #5536 (isolation #268) » Wed May 13, 2015 10:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Well, that was lame.
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Post Post #5538 (isolation #269) » Wed May 13, 2015 10:22 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

More investigation pending but that flip makes me more interested in an Anxiety lynch. Still think Aronis has a great chance of being scum. Still think UT is scum. Still not voting Titus.
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Post Post #5545 (isolation #270) » Wed May 13, 2015 12:49 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Not touching a Titus wagon.
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Post Post #5549 (isolation #271) » Wed May 13, 2015 12:53 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5546, Oversoul wrote:Then vote Shadoweh


Thinking things over first. Want to do some rereading. This is why we did the first lynch with some time to spare. Plus it's well known that my Shadoweh read is all kinds of messy and confused. I'm not against it in principle, especially as an alternative to a Titus wagon, but I want to do the work first.
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Post Post #5551 (isolation #272) » Wed May 13, 2015 1:03 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Patrick thinks that UT-scum has been distancing from Shadoweh so you may well be right.
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Post Post #5709 (isolation #273) » Thu May 14, 2015 12:53 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Doing some rereading and looking at Vote Counts. Might pop up with some random questions over the next few hours but most of my thinking is probably going to be done off-stage with input from my team-mates.

In post 4189, Titus wrote:His flavor that game was Lichtmann.


Titus, which game was this? Could you link me, please?
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Post Post #5719 (isolation #274) » Thu May 14, 2015 3:43 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Was pretty shocked to discover in my rereading that Formerfish has been in this game for a
month
. That is officially too long to have coasted this much without serious contribution, and I was reminded in a glance over his iso how bad his half-hearted sheep of ffery onto me was. I want to look at Marquis again somewhat but I would not be opposed to the resurrection of that wagon.
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Post Post #5739 (isolation #275) » Thu May 14, 2015 5:45 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Not lynching singer, probably ever. Empire looked town, his replace-in is town, singer's engagement is
way
too high for her to be scum. Not doing it. Nope. No siree. No thank you. Nada.
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Post Post #5744 (isolation #276) » Thu May 14, 2015 5:57 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5741, TellTaleHeart wrote:
In post 5739, ChannelDelibird wrote:Not lynching singer, probably ever. Empire looked town, his replace-in is town, singer's engagement is
way
too high for her to be scum. Not doing it. Nope. No siree. No thank you. Nada.

Who are you scum reading?


Iso my recent posts for an idea of where my head's at, but I'm working on a fuller picture of how I see the game by looking back at some things before I vote. I could post some of them now but I'd rather have a chance to talk things over with my team before I present a clearer perspective of what I want to do, and that chat with my team-mates hasn't really happened yet, nor has my rereading finished.

Basically, my townreads are much stronger than my scumreads, and there's a group of people whom I'm not explicitly townreading whom I'm trying to sort more effectively.
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Post Post #5747 (isolation #277) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:00 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Titus, I don't give a shit. You're not going to convince me. You asked if people would support it. I'm telling you I wouldn't support it.
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Post Post #5750 (isolation #278) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5748, TellTaleHeart wrote:Unless that opinion comes with a cop innocent or a reason other than "she posts a lot" or any variant thereof, I'm not going to put any stock in it.


And if that had been the only thing that I'd just said like five posts ago, that would be fine.
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Post Post #5751 (isolation #279) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:12 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5749, Titus wrote:@CDB Can you put your reads up then? I'll place my Singer case I'm working on in spoilers. You can skip it if you want.

If we're going to agree, we need to figure it out fast. We'll pick one person we are all not townreading. That's very likely to hit scum, even if we're all compromising a bit.


I told you, I'm working on it, and there's enough in my recent iso for you to have a good enough idea for the time being.
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Post Post #5752 (isolation #280) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I only feel more strongly about my singer read on engagement grounds given that my team just finished a gruelling battle to avoid a Quilford mislynch in Twin Trap, when meta was clearly on our side no matter what the (town) person pushing his case relentlessly said. Things like this
do
work out when they're this fundamental and obvious, and singer is hella town.
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Post Post #5755 (isolation #281) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:31 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5753, Titus wrote:To be fair, Quilford and BB were hella scummy there.


hahahahahahahaha

molla somewhat, quilford no. you don't get to have this argument, we were so right
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Post Post #5757 (isolation #282) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:43 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Yeah I get it, I'm just saying it is totally legit for me to see the anti-singer brigade and point out that, no, that's not what she's like as scum, doesn't matter which nits you pick. she's town, enjoy
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Post Post #5760 (isolation #283) » Thu May 14, 2015 6:56 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Don't really have time to go into detail on Titus read right now but a) it's probably my oldest read, far predates my being in her townbloc and b) comes down to similar 'I think this is what she's like as town' stuff by which you probably wouldn't be impressed

Doesn't feel like the most productive use of my time right now especially as i'm supposed to be working atm
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Post Post #5859 (isolation #284) » Fri May 15, 2015 1:06 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Putting together a big post of reads and team-mate input at the moment. In the meantime...

Thanks for the link, Titus. Was anyone else who is in this game also in that game (i.e. would anyone other than you know that GiF was specifically crumbing doctor)?
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Post Post #5861 (isolation #285) » Fri May 15, 2015 2:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

1/3

God-tier townreads - not touching these short of guilty investigation from trusted source

TellTaleHeart - It makes almost no sense for her to be fakeclaiming here.
singersigner - Empire's replace-in looks very very much like it was from unfortunate scum slot to town slot. Singer's behaviour is not her scum behaviour at all.
Gammagooey - Pursues relentlessly, totally engaged, convinced this is his town game. Patrick says he's the equivalent of three townies, so town is he.

My team are all very satisfied that all of these three are town.

Second-tier townreads - strong read on behaviour but occasional moments of paranoia keeping them out of god tier

Titus - This feels like townTitus, particularly with the effort put in to work around her weaknesses (even if, as I think, it's not working effectively). My only worry is that the GiF kill implicates her a bit, but other people could have decided that GiF's crumb looked enough like a PR to kill him.
Oversoul - Tammy's interactions with Zar and Empire felt strongly town and nothing that she or Oversoul have done since have made me feel that I was wrong to attribute that behaviour to a town mindset.
Cheetory6 - Reads strongly town on behaviour - lots of genuine moments - but I see a lot of my townreads on the TSO and Bulbazak lynch wagons, including Cheet on both, and as I know him the least well he's the townread I'd probably doubt first. There are other suspects for being scum on these wagons, however.

Mid-tier townread - essentially on claim alone

Mastin2 - I think the claim does her a lot of good. Given the worst-case scenario for frequency of scum kills in this game, a bulletproof-of-some-kind doctor definitely feels like a very plausible role for this setup, and depending on the nature of her bulletproofing, the "I'm so dead" schtick may well back that up. Fenchurch is not quite so convinced that the "I'm so dead" stuff is a good sign. She's not sure that hito would give a doctor the same ability that he gave to Bulbazak on his own and, if mastin's bulletproof isn't in the format that Bulbazak's was, then her claim to have a short lifespan doesn't ring so true (in that case it's really only a WIFOM thing to make scum leave her alone rather than an attempt to draw kills so that they would fail).

Patrick thinks that mastin's posts are within range of her scum game. He's seen scum-mastin be irritating and repeat these sorts of messages ad nauseam. He doesn't outright scumread her, but thinks she's still plausible scum despite the claim. For the time being, though, I don't want to touch her.

Slight townread

Espeonage - At the end of Day 1, a lot of people whom I don't trust are left on the Espeonage wagon that didn't finalise - Shadoweh(1), Aronis(4), ActionDan(5), Anx(7), UT(8) - which makes me think that he might be town after all. In fact, the only three votes not on that wagon that aren't from people I townread are Formerfish(1) and Espeonage(4) on the 4-vote wagon on me and vezok(2) on the mastin wagon. So I think it's likely that at least two scum were pushing Espeonage at the end of Day 1. I don't think that they could have budgeted for that lynch not getting pushed through at all costs, which suggests that Espeonage is slightly more likely to be town than scum. So I'm taking Espeonage out of our pool of preferred lynches for the time being.
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Post Post #5862 (isolation #286) » Fri May 15, 2015 2:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

2/3

Strong scumread

Untrod Tripod - the Goo is adamant that UT is scum.
Fenchurch still wants him dead Today regardless of the lack of counterclaim and both Patrick and CES would be OK with taking the plunge, although we agree that giving him a Night is probably strictly better.

However, it is worth pointing out that scumUT could still claim Tomorrow that he was left alive deliberately as an auto-mislynch - that is, assuming that scum don't accidentally kill the real Alquin Tonight. Which would be hilarious.

Fenchurch notes that UT is still pushing his Alquin claim really hard, mentioning it as often as possible, because he still wants a counterclaimant for maximum payoff.

Patrick thinks that he fits the mould for fakeclaiming scum almost perfectly. Claims, off-handedly lists off a handful of crappy suspicions, then drifts off (note: this is before the Bulbazak lynch. He's been a bit more active since, but still - go back and look at his behaviour immediately around the claim). The Goo agree that Alquin would not want to be exposed by a crappy wagon, which means that Alquin is obliged to care about not getting run up. UT's line is that he didn't care about being run up
because
he is Alquin and we don't think that tallies at all.

Reminder that UT said "there's no goddamn way scum claims [Alquin]", which is HORSESHIT. We are all in disbelief that this is a thing that he claims to believe. It is OBVIOUS that scum, looking almost certain to be lynched, would want to try claiming Alquin to draw a counterclaim. The benefits are obvious. No way does UT genuinely believe this; this is an example of him throwing around the name Alquin to get his way rather than him actually behaving like town.

Fenchurch observes that UT knows how frustrating and tiring it is as town to try to push a lynch on someone who is incredibly scummy, when half of the town either can't see it or are too afraid of the risks. He really plays up that fear aspect to sap the morale of those pushing him and reduce the chances of town being brave enough to follow the push.

None of us can buy that UT believes almost anything that he's saying. His Gamma scumread is a great example - given UT's experience with Gamma, we find it astonishing that he seriously thinks that this is anything other than Gammatown.

Fenchurch adds that his suspicion on me is also completely stupid and unbelievable. "I think CDB's opportunistic hops have been scummy as shit," says UT, but opportunism is such a meaningless cliche. I've been willing to vote for several wagons because that is better than everyone succumbing to their own egos and making stupid no-lynches instead. There's good reasons for me vote-hopping, and it's the players who are being lazy and stubborn who are making this game much harder for the town.

Patrick says that, if UT is town, he must have stopped caring about his win con a long time ago.

At the height of the UT wagon, all six voters were people who are in my top two tiers of townreads (or are me). Also makes me feel better about being on the right track.

Fenchurch is suuuuper unimpressed with singer's reveal that her detect found UT to be simply not-Blade, rather than Candle. Even a Candle sign wouldn't be a slam-dunk on an Alquin claim, but that was a shitty, shitty reason to back him up.

I've also been looking at some old vote counts and, of the people I don't explicitly townread, UT is one of only two people to have been on the wagons that lynched both TSO and Bulbazak as well as the one that nearly lynched me. On the TSO wagon, he is one of only three of those potential suspects, the others being vezok and ActionDan. On the Bulbazak wagon, the only others I don't trust are vezok and Aronis. I think it is extremely unlikely that those wagons do not contain at least one scum and UT remains the obvious candidate.

All in all, we think UT's play both pre- and post-claim looks much more like scum fakeclaiming Alquin than it does town. I would still happily vote for him Today but I implore you to get it done Tomorrow if he is still alive, and especially if I'm not.
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Post Post #5863 (isolation #287) » Fri May 15, 2015 2:30 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

3/3

Assuming a UT lynch isn't happening Today, who does that leave?


ActionDan
Shadoweh

4nxi3ty
Aronis
Formerfish
Vezokpiraka

You'll have noted from my discussion of UT's presence on wagons on town that vezok is in the exclusive club of people whom I don't townread who were on both TSO and Bulbazak. He was also involved on my wagon (though he did say that he thought I was town and only wanted to get a lynch). I'd be happy to vote for vezok.

Patrick tried to iso DV and didn't get much out of it - we suspect that, if 4nx is scum, it'd be easier to get a read on his slot as a possible buddy after we get a scumflip elsewhere first. However, Patrick did think that DV's scumread on Bulbazak early in the game was odd. Fenchurch thinks 4nx is an okay wagon. I'd go along with it but I kind of want to get other scum first.

Aronis. There's not an awful lot to say about Aronis. He's been a disgraceful lurksack for the entire game and has basically done nothing at all for a month. He showed up again after several days just as soon as wagon on him sprang up, and responded to it not with a heartfelt townie desire to improve things but with a half-heartedly restated scumread on Titus and jack-all else. My team support an Aronis wagon, and I would happily vote for him.

Formerfish's iso is
rough
. Patrick thinks he's lurking scum, and I'm somewhat inclined to agree, though I keep putting off rereading the Marquis part of the slot. Patrick sees a lot of anger without any substance - at some point, town has to stop griping about people complaining when he replaces into a big thread and doesn't get caught up. It's not like he didn't know what he was getting in for. Patrick finds #5261 weird because it's something that feels like it was hardly worth posting, like Formerfish is just saying things for the sake of posting rather than actually making a real contribution. However, he's pleased by a recent increase, somewhat, in activity, and says that the vote on ActionDan being relatively original is a positive. I'd vote for Formerfish to get a lynch, but maybe a little extra time from him would be helpful here.

ActionDan and Shadoweh are the two whom my team haven't yet had much of a chance to look into, and my own reads on the pair are a bit of a sludge. I've talked about the fact that my Shadoweh read has kinda disappeared up its own backside and, to an extent, I was willing to let sangres's final strong-town read on her guide me for the time being. I need to look at her again but, if she's not one of the current wagons, I'm probably going to leave that for later.

Dan's in a similar position. I think I've lost track a little bit of how to read him but he seems a little more engaged here than I might expect as scum. A little. Maybe I'll come back to him. Again, I guess I'd have to consider voting for him if he were currently one of the proposed wagons, but I think I might prefer getting a scumflip elsewhere and comparing to them as a potential buddy.

-----

Who do I want to vote?


The most? That's UT.

After that, either vezok or Aronis sounds pretty good to me, and I'd go along with 4nx or Formerfish but they're probably slightly lower priority for me.

VOTE: Aronis
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Post Post #5874 (isolation #288) » Fri May 15, 2015 6:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5872, singersigner wrote:
In post 5869, Oversoul wrote:I think CDB and his team's analysis of Singer's reservations about UT vote are pretty spot on.
That is kind of shit reasoning. I completely forgot Alquin was even a thing and honestly thought it was one of the lurkers but #YOLO

Mina and Zar agree with you. If we're wrong you can reprimant me and Regfan postgame. Until then, you can feel free to either try to prove us wrong now or stfu.


Why is this aimed at Oversoul rather than me? You know I just
did
try to prove you wrong? At length?
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Post Post #5909 (isolation #289) » Fri May 15, 2015 9:32 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 5907, Gammagooey wrote:and titus.

you have over A THOUSAND posts.

that's more than 1/6th of the game in one that started with 20 players.

PLEASE please please please please please start at least skimming through what people have already said about people before you ask for their opinions on something that's already been gone over several times before.


THIS
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Post Post #5927 (isolation #290) » Sat May 16, 2015 2:15 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Cheet, I am putting in quite a lot of effort kthx
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Post Post #5947 (isolation #291) » Sat May 16, 2015 5:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

need a bit of time to digest claim but prolly still prefer we lynch aronis
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Post Post #6005 (isolation #292) » Sat May 16, 2015 8:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

4nxi3ty, the Goo wants you to paraphrase your flavour (specifically the parts relating to Viktor).
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Post Post #6006 (isolation #293) » Sat May 16, 2015 8:30 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

The Goo also wants to know why DV picked singer/Empire on minor night 1.
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Post Post #6011 (isolation #294) » Sat May 16, 2015 9:17 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Agree that this sounds pretty shifty but, as we've got time (and Dan wants to use it for stuff), I'd like for 4nx to answer 6005 and 6006.
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Post Post #6040 (isolation #295) » Sat May 16, 2015 11:19 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

reminder that UT is scum
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Post Post #6087 (isolation #296) » Sat May 16, 2015 10:34 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

The fact that UT has made big cases on not only Gamma but Shadoweh does give me pause - I need to read them both fully and talk to my team about them (think I may have been the only one to see it so far) but I suspect much will depend on whether or not he flips overnight. At any rate, I'm confident that I won't be moving to a Gamma lynch or anything like that Today.

Gamma, as I've already indicated, the claim is sketchy and the Goo has questions about it. Given that we have time, though, I'm letting 4nx talk more about it before I move my vote, but I suspect that I will.
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Post Post #6151 (isolation #297) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:32 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I've been busy today and only had a chance to quickly skim UT's Gamma case (haven't read Shadoweh yet, not really got time for that either way at this point. If UT gets his way, it'd be Gamma over Shadoweh), but the Goo has read it better than I have.

Fenchurch and Patrick both say that UT is far too inflexible in his read on Gamma's changing stance on him. For someone who's gone to lengths to demonstrate how extremely aware of how long this game is, UT doesn't consider the short-term/long-term implications of Gamma's UT read. Anyone's expectations of a player are likely to change between early-game and late-game, and Gamma filing away UT as probtown for tone early on and then probscum for failing to scumhunt much later into the game is not a strange shift in that way. Gamma's case on UT is about him not trying to find scum, and that's something that looks worse the longer that you let it happen. UT is behaving as if he has shown us a huge contradiction between Gamma's earlier and current stances, but that just isn't the case. Patrick feels that UT's case is nitpicky, rather than actually considering how scum behave.

And also, adds Fenchurch, why did this not appear earlier? Why has UT taken this long to tell us that this is why he's scumreading Gamma, when it's been a long time since it started happening? She compares the frequency and immediacy of Gamma's reasoning, which is much easier to believe as someone's genuine thoughts, to the fact that it took UT several days to bring this case to us (without even so much as a summary), which makes it more likely in her eyes that it's manufactured.

Seeing the first handful of quotes of that Gamma case, highlighting a change of stance that is totally understandable given the timeframe, is why I issued my "reminder that UT is scum", btw.
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Post Post #6154 (isolation #298) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:37 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

"It's Day 2" is a bullshit excuse when this is our fourth attempted lynch
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Post Post #6158 (isolation #299) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:39 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

This hyperbolic shouting-down of anything against him as inadmissible regardless of content from UT is exactly what ETL-scum did in Twin Trap btw
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Post Post #6160 (isolation #300) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:40 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6155, Untrod Tripod wrote:also the case was a composite effort from my team, which you would know if you were actually reading rather than just making up horseshit excuses why the lynch on your buddy can't happen


If you had the reasons before, you could have summarised. You didn't.

remind me, how many lynches have we had?

I'll wait


Hey, everyone, come see UT's funny joke!
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Post Post #6161 (isolation #301) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:41 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6159, Untrod Tripod wrote:so you have no actual argument, just one-game meta on a player who ISN'T EVEN ME


This is full-on parody now
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Post Post #6163 (isolation #302) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:42 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Anyway, I'm done with this for tonight as I'm tired and UT isn't going to get lynched Today.

tl;dr of this argument:
UT's case isn't a good enough reason to lynch Gamma. We still need 4nx to talk about his claim some more but it should still be either him or Aronis.
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Post Post #6167 (isolation #303) » Sun May 17, 2015 10:44 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6165, Titus wrote:@Channel, Suppose we could get the votes, what's deficient about UT's case?


THE POST IS ON
THIS
PAGE FFS
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Post Post #6178 (isolation #304) » Sun May 17, 2015 11:09 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I just told myself that I had to go to bed to ignore this, but apparently I can't. UT, I'm impressed by how quickly you've got me from zero to furious.

Titus
, it's not that I'm trying to create the impression that you aren't reading, it's that you asked why I thought his case was bad when I'd made a post at the top of this page explaining why I thought his case was bad. You could have said "I thought #6151 was unconvincing" but you acted as if I hadn't made an argument at all, and that was why I could only assume that you hadn't been reading. Your thing about behavioural vs logic there has actually left me speechless, though, so that's it for me on this one. Enjoy your scum-driven blind alley. There is only so far that I can go in trying to connect our two wavelengths, because you see mafia, as a game, so utterly differently to me.

UT
, 6159/6170 seem like another example of this classic thing that I keep coming back to of you not addressing obvious things. Here's the ETL one, and the other one that I'm coming back to for, I believe, the fifth time now:

On ETL: Having just successfully fought to have ETLscum lynched in Twin Trap, for exhibiting said behaviour, why
wouldn't
town-me see you exhibiting similar behaviour and draw a parallel? I know you're different people, but I've seen you as town be better than this. Instead, you're doing things for which my team just got somebody else dead as scum.
That's
individual and relevant to you. That you leap from zero to outrage here doesn't make sense to me.

On your claim:
I cannot understand how you have gone so long without giving me a straight answer on this (other than that there isn't a good one):
Why did you say "there's no way scum claims [Alquin]", even though I have argued clearly and concisely, on multiple occasions, that this is categorically not the case? Why, if you're town, do you not try to show me that I'm wrong to react this way to you by addressing my concerns? You're not an idiot. The statement doesn't make any sense, and the truth of that, coupled with your steadfast refusal to ever address the point, is a fundamental part of why I think you're lying about being Alquin.
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Post Post #6181 (isolation #305) » Sun May 17, 2015 11:13 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

UT, as you said to me earlier in this game, this isn't personal. This is an honest read, rooted in my experience with you as a rational person whom I remember as being willing to talk to me about why I'm wrong when I'm wrong about you. I could yet be wrong on you (and don't think I'm not wondering about this, despite everything) but so far it's hard not to add everything up to me being right.

Anyway, I just wanted to say this to you primarily as a way to try to calm myself down before bed. Really looking forward to hanging out with you in a couple of weeks. You're great. Die scum die die suck.
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Post Post #6184 (isolation #306) » Sun May 17, 2015 11:25 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Gamma's town in strict opposition to UT's case because the evolution of his UT read is totally legit, as I explained in 6151. Also, y'know, the other times when I've said why I think Gamma is town. UT's case has to change my mind on that, and it emphatically doesn't.
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Post Post #6187 (isolation #307) » Sun May 17, 2015 11:40 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Fucking
finally
. Thanks for actually doing that. I'm not going to do much more than acknowledge it right now because I really do need to go to bed, and you're still not getting my vote on Gamma, but I'll go and sleep on this, think about it, let my team talk it out a bit, and we'll see. I mean, it's likely to be academic anyway but I'm not convinced that scum leaving you alive as town is as completely ridiculous an idea as you suggest that it is. My team and I have been talking about whether such a thing could happen and, if scum have the signs (as they probably do) to get in two kills Tonight then nigh-guarantee one of Tomorrow's two lynches is a mislynch on you, that seems mathematically good for them in that scenario. Is that not something that's come up in your team's PT if you're actually Alquin?
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Post Post #6331 (isolation #308) » Mon May 18, 2015 11:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

UNVOTE: Aronis

My team has thoughts they want me to post, and I have some pages to read. I might die tonight, so gimme a few mins
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Post Post #6338 (isolation #309) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:01 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

So UT's post last night was the first post in aaaages that made me think that perhaps, under all the bullshit, UT could actually be town. I mentioned this reaction to my team and asked for thoughts as I went to bed.

Fenchurch did not have the same reaction. She thinks that the 'I'm an IC' comparison is a bad one, as he's not been proved by the mod as being what he says he is, and the role that he says he has is one with a strong incentive not to counterclaim him if he's lying, as well as one which the scum are incentivised to drag out into the open. She says that UT calling himself an IC is like a doctor calling themselves an IC in an open setup. Personally, I think it's
possible
that townUT would use the phrase 'I'm an IC', but I find it harder to forgive him actually
playing
like one. Still a lot of question marks, and there are a lot of ways in which scumUT could spin being alive Tomorrow, one of which I mentioned here (though, on the chance that a non-UT scumteam hadn't thought of that, I regret having said it, valid though it is).

CES thinks it's funny that UT tried to call where we're at "early game", as if it would fine to avoid scumhunting for 200 pages.

In the last few hours, Fenchurch added her belief that UT's failure to vote for either of the two leading wagons for as long as he did was another bad sign.

Ultimately, I hope that UT flips town overnight, because I'd really love a shut book on this one, but Fenchurch remains convinced that he's scum and I'm still in a position where I have to reach to explain his actions as town, even though I am rather more paranoid that I might be wrong than I was before.

Next: Thoughts on Titus claim, 4nx and general recap of Goo reads in case we are imminently dead.
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Post Post #6340 (isolation #310) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:16 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

4nxiety says that Cephrir suggested Empire for a Minor Night 1 trace.
Why?
Ceph must have had a reason for that. What was it and why not volunteer that reason when I asked about it? Fenchurch thinks that the lack of explanation is probably because it was a scummy reason. Patrick is more equivocal, but 4nx ought to explain if he is around.

The Goo agrees with Gamma here that Titus's claiming for her stated reason looks town, just that her conclusions are off. Her claim backs up that someone can change signs but, without mod confirmation that it's a town ability, we see no reason why this couldn't be town being informed about a scum power. It would be an entirely reasonable balance on a (potentially quite dastardly) scum power, and note that Titus's claim doesn't support the specifics of 4nx's, just that his sign
can
change.

Fenchurch has been pushing for me to vote 4nx over Aronis for a couple of days (my reasons for preferring Aronis aren't anything that isn't already in my iso, but either is basically fine with me). As of now, she thinks Titus's claim points more towards 4nx being scum than town, and she thinks his non-explanation for tracing Empire is shifty.

She also notes that Aronis hasn't been voting for 4nx, his counterwagon, which leads her to suspect that, if Aronis is scum, 4nx is also scum.

PEDIT: That's a good point by Titus that TTH's claim makes Aronis's look worse. I'm debating with Patrick right now just
how
bad, but my instinct is that it's bad.
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Post Post #6343 (isolation #311) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:20 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

IF I DIE, THESE UNANIMOUS GOO READS GO ON MY TOMBSTONE TO BE OBEYED


singer is town.

Gamma is town.

TTH is town.

Cheetory is town.

Oversoul is town.
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Post Post #6350 (isolation #312) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:28 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6346, Untrod Tripod wrote:oh, right

you're probably scum and it's WIFOM

that's right


As a strong town role, incentivised to stay hidden, whose sign is almost certainly now known to scum, who will automatically match sign on my target Tonight, I guess you could say that I'm an IC. So shove it :)
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Post Post #6351 (isolation #313) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:28 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Aronis just claiming vaguely and then disappearing is scummy. I think I'll revote him before I go to bed, but ultimately I'd be reasonably happy with whichever of him/4nx dies. It needs to be one of them, though.
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Post Post #6357 (isolation #314) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:35 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6355, Gammagooey wrote:considering that a self-watcher and a watcher-that-was-locked-and-is-actually-still-a-vt-because-game-mechanics are two very different roles, I don't see why not.


I think the larger relevance of Aronis's claim vs TTH's is that mine is also a thing. Does hitomod allow for the possibility of an activated town Watcher, full town Tracker and a town self-Watcher in the same game? That's potentially a lot of night actions being followed by town. However, more important to read him on play than modWIFOM, and his play is shite.
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Post Post #6364 (isolation #315) » Mon May 18, 2015 12:42 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6361, Untrod Tripod wrote:although I guess, CDB, you could just pray for the doc protection

unless this "I'm gonna die!" posturing is really doing you any favors

(protip: it's not!)


I'm not actually convinced that I'm doomed Tonight (depends on if we lynch scum Today and how scared of my likely targets the scum are, plus there are plenty of claims out there) but it's certainly a possibility given the Boon/general strength of role and Fenchurch was keen for me to restate the key townreads.

But bear in mind that doc protects only against one kill attempt. Scum can force the issue on whoever they need most dead, if they want.
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Post Post #6372 (isolation #316) » Mon May 18, 2015 1:13 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

VOTE: Aronis

Even more Titus posts are not a reason to put Aronis back to L-3. Anyway, I'll probably go to bed soon and I think this is where my vote is staying.
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Post Post #6403 (isolation #317) » Mon May 18, 2015 2:27 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

last thought before bed

is it at all possible to avoid making this stupidly long thread even longer for no reason

thanks
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Post Post #6441 (isolation #318) » Thu May 21, 2015 10:20 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Singer, I'm really fucking sorry.

That's all until I finish waking up.
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Post Post #6461 (isolation #319) » Fri May 22, 2015 3:30 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Wait to vote on the Choice before everyone checks in and we talk about it for a bit.


If UT is not Alquin, the real Alquin should come forward now so that we can choose to make the Trade and then lynch UT.
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Post Post #6466 (isolation #320) » Fri May 22, 2015 3:40 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I've caught up with posts (was passing on a message from the Goo from while I was out).

If UT is scum and we don't lynch him Today because of no counterclaim, we are unlikely to hit both other scum.

Plus, you know, lynches are protown. If we can get three of them by having someone out UT as scum, that's clearly a good thing for us. Worst case scenario is someone counterclaims UT as scum, we mislynch UT, then get guaranteed scum lynched Tomorrow, which is not ideal but is at least not awful.

Not yet claiming my result because I want to see what someone who hasn't yet posted says before I do that.
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Post Post #6469 (isolation #321) » Fri May 22, 2015 3:49 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Ugh, you're probably right. After the end of Yesterday and Titus's flip, I'm more open to UTtown than I have been for a long time. I'd just ... really, really like to know sooner rather than later, and his being alive Today is a problem for me.
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Post Post #6471 (isolation #322) » Fri May 22, 2015 4:18 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

CES points out that we can have non-UT Alquin counterclaim without even having to take the Trade. He argues that it would be sufficiently ineffective for scum to counterclaim a genuine UT here that we can probably be certain of UT's alignment either way.
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Post Post #6511 (isolation #323) » Fri May 22, 2015 8:37 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Shadoweh, confirm how that happened to Dan right now.
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Post Post #6512 (isolation #324) » Fri May 22, 2015 8:50 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Bane: 4nxi3ty
Probably scum.

Choice vote coming on other side of plane trip. Leaving for Orlando in an hour or so; going to be iPad only for a coupla weeks. Will have internet while away but not much during travel.
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Post Post #6515 (isolation #325) » Fri May 22, 2015 11:06 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

The inference should be obvious, but I'll spell it out.

I tracked you last night and got no result. This means that, if you say you specifically targeted Dan last night, then either both you and he are scum or that's confirmation that scum are blocking me.

Leaning the latter, especially given that I'm alive, but had to do my due diligence. You said that "your role resolved" rather than "I targeted Dan" so I thought it was possible that you were claiming that I wouldn't have seen you targeting him.
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Post Post #6551 (isolation #326) » Sun May 24, 2015 2:33 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Leaning against the trade the more removed I get from the thread but will talk to my team-mates who are all also here

Meantime let's bane this mofo
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Post Post #6571 (isolation #327) » Sun May 24, 2015 4:41 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Choose Keep
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Post Post #6596 (isolation #328) » Tue May 26, 2015 4:34 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm an awful boon, Espeonage, as I'm being blocked. My continued survival is less useful than it used to be.

Boon: singer
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Post Post #6626 (isolation #329) » Tue May 26, 2015 8:46 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 6603, Espeonage wrote:Singer is being universally scumread by my team.


All of you should immediately retire from playing mafia.
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Post Post #6660 (isolation #330) » Tue May 26, 2015 6:39 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

So we finish booning singer, lynch formerfish and anxiety, singer vigs mastin, then we party
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Post Post #6679 (isolation #331) » Fri May 29, 2015 2:52 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

VOTE: 4nxi3ty
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Post Post #6743 (isolation #332) » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:58 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Tum te tum
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Post Post #6768 (isolation #333) » Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:18 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

FRRRRREEEEEEEDDDDOOOOOOOOMMM

Prolly voting Formerfish Today but will see if my team have any different ideas (I'm unlikely to have any bright ones before Sunday)
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