Newbie 2127: game over

[the worst]

skygazer which movies HAVE you seen

heya all, will read & catch up soon

[the worst]

skygazer which movies HAVE you seen

heya all, will read & catch up soon

Welcome, good luck, looking forward to your analysis.

thanks, i'm looking forward to it too

any suggestions on where i should focus my attention?

[the worst]

cool, thanks, i'll drill down on that catchup. what about it did you like the most?


i'm like 7 pages in and i really want bazuf. i am starting to like chicagotypewriter too, they just feel kind of unapologetic and i do get the sense their reads are starting to develop?

i either townread or scumread KKFC and i don't know which one yet. i was surprised they unvoted vestra during rvs to avoid the e-1, rather than voting for one of the other two wagons. i thought it was noteworthy that delta was the only player they didn't really provide any alignment-read content on in 105, but i also note they had a pretty lengthy convo sometime in the posts ~500 so i'm pretty excited to read that.

clap is asking questions and doesn't seem to be following through which is like, a superficial red flag. he's also not very active yet. i can see he starts talking a lot more later so that's another thing i'm super keen to revisit.

i have nothing on political clout yet.

delta is like, interesting, he's maybe the most vocal player ITT so far and i can see him talking about how he's found townhunting ineffective & would be keen to try rooting out scum from the bottom up, but i don't feel like the earlygame has any evidence of the method so in a more detached meta sense i can see why that was a popular wagon.

[the worst]

want bazuf to be town* goodness that typo

[the worst]

finishing up day one, if it hasn't been discussed in a fair bit of detail can i get a summary on the case against delta? i his their conversation with my slot, and i liked his evaluation of mikhail leading into the lim

[the worst]

So we can agree that it's concerning.

Do you think UP is pushing on me in bad faith?

-Bad Meta reads
-Misrepresenting my arguments
-Misrepresenting my meta play
-Doubling-down on a poor read

this is definitely happening. i find meta very boring and UP are posting a lot but there's a lot of like, words and things which don't feel like they're being used to represent factors which are internal to this game. i've been bored for like 3 pages and delta is becoming my voice of reason. for what it's worth, i don't think UP/KKFC is a particularly convincing team after these conversations.

articulating ideas is hard i'm washed up


pedit: wow it sounds delightful! what made you maintain your vote after you finished reading?

[the worst]

Delta: Delta was very resistant to the Mik hammer in the end. It was a bit weird how he went back and forth on deciding to go for the hammer after E-1 the second time. The way it was prepping suggests that Delta was preparing for a town flip.

this is something i wanted to comment on anyway so i'll use my predecessor's brain as a starting point. mikhail was going to be the lim, there wasn't a counter-wagon. if delta was setting up for a town flip, why did he go through the effort of extensively reevaluating the person who was about to flip*, and then just waste all of that credit by policy voting mikhail? i get it looks "bad", but i don't think it actually looked all that scummy to me personally


* this is something i think i probably would expect from him as scum because it looks objectively good in hindsight.

[the worst]

hubris is well known for catching scum! i'm erring on the side of liking your vote, so i'll report back a bit later.

hello nice to meet you too. how're you doing?

[the worst]

Hey, I'm good.

Just waiting for you to finish catching up. My eye roll emoji is a reaction to 938 and 942.

what's wrong with those posts?

glad to hear you're doin good

[the worst]

i feel really bad for just getting ... nothing from UP. there's a tonne of effort to present as accessible and put together a coherent case but it's just so full of meta and references to other games and history and there's nothing i've seen that's felt like an insightful spark that's difficult to fake.

),

bazuf exists in a really odd blind spot for me. i broadly agree with everything he's saying in this post, but i'm conscious of where his vote ends up. i'm also wary that what i'm saying & what bazuf is saying aren't like, phenomenally nuanced either, we're just vexed by a similar thing.

[the worst]

Uh... they're referencing something that doesn't exist.

noticing my attention doesn't exist is startlingly insightful, but i expect not what you meant by this.

are you saying there's no case against delta? is this a policy situation because he's been argumentative?

[the worst]

current mood:

[the worst]

that's interesting tho i'd love to hear your case on scum!delta & ideally town!snix's slot, if you wouldn't mind?

[the worst]

pc's alignment is going to win this game and i hope i share it lmao

okay cool, i found clap dismissive & up's analysis presents as scum motivated, so if snix is in the same vein i think we should all be talking abt that a lot more.

i don't blame you for checking out a bit kkfc, i have a tension headache from reading through it and i can't quite work out why but i'm here to save the day. let's all join hands and lim some scums.

[the worst]

well said. taking a shot, being wrong and talking it out post-game is half the fun if mafia. the other half is winning so i'd be cool w that too.

for what it's worth kkfc, i'm excited to talk to you more because i also haven't really solved this game and my head is a pretty tangled knot rn.

[the worst]

I think here the most accurate way I can say it is that I felt as though Delta's
vibes were off? I don't actually care about the supposed posturing before and after the Tal hammer, nor do I think the hammer was that bad given the deadline situation. I expected more aggression and I guess I wonder to what extend the early pushes on PC and Jason were engineered to give Delta time to lay low(ish) afterwards.

that's fair; it was a weird phase and there was a lot of tonality which felt a little bit unnatural. for delta's part, i found him hard to access and forced early on but rereading in hindsight i think he was also one of the two core people trying to force the game state to advance (the other being jason). he did pick a lot of fights and enter some tunnels for kinda odd reasons, but i think it's probably well intended. broadly speaking, as a game's state gets more complicated and conversations become more nitty-gritty, scum find it harder to get by because it's increasingly hard to fake thoughts. my gut tells me particularly from eod1/early d2 (i'm cheating SORRY) that a lot of delta's more forced content is an attempt to get the game closer to that state. let me know if i'm making no sense or talking out of my ass here.

For Claptastik
(original Snix slot), I didn't really have an opinion because there wasn't much there. They had a post that indicated they read the entire argument between me and PC, which I thought was decently +town. Later, they had a couple of posts that were decently scummy (referenced in 279) that I maybe should care about more.

that's fair, i don't hate this take. i came at it from a slightly different angle.
if we accept for a moment that either alignment puts in roughly equal effort, i try to take it a step further. he did read the entire conversation. but why did he read it, and what was he trying to get out of it? the post in question --

I was going to write more hence the lines but lost my train of thought. KKFC & PC reads as town v Town. I don't think KKFC emotion there was faked and tbh I think PC reacted well to the exchange. TvT for me.

KKFC does come off as frustrated town. I also think it's likely TvT (as noted earlier), but there's a possibility PC is scum. He wasn't as genuine as KKFC, and some scum love to get into a 1v1 early to get town reads.

large blowups about playstyle & personality are regularly bad indicators of alignment. as soon as it goes beyond game content into playstyle & personality, people are going to get frustrated regardless of alignment. regardless, i understand the temptation to look at that kind of blow-up and assume it's TvT. we also don't have a lot of elaboration on *why* he thought it was TvT. but a couple of things kind of stuck with me.

- he's very quick to use this argument as a decider of alignment. remember that scum know your alignments, so it is easier to see a TvT for what it is. i also think you & pc are town but for very different reasons than because you had a fight.
- scum like to be right. scum particularly like to be right when it comes to intense social situations. trying to be 'more right' than someone about something is a very big sign of deception imo.
- this is his first read of the game, outside of the below-quoted directed at Delta's rvs conduct. this isn't the end of the world, but again rvs nit-picking is very easy for scum to do. advancing reads in a way that resembles real human thought is hard.
- when called out on lack of reads, he cites these three as his reads. so he's indicating he hasn't considered more players' alignments yet.
- he has talked about being inactive for real life stuff, which is valid. but he's clearly spent some time considering alignments at this point to reach these reads. i'm wondering how he has no opinion on like, jason or delta's post-rvs conduct, but has divined that y'all had a tvt fight?

Don't like this. Why did you move off the wagon before vestrea came back? The whole point of the wagon was to see the reaction and you ruined that.

so i think he has taken the time to read your argument, but he's done it from a detached perspective. more interested in having the 'right' answer than analysing the argument in detail.

in saying this i'll admit i didn't deep-dive your argument either but like, i'm just not convinced that having read it closely is alignment indicative.



i typed too much for a hypothetical/challenging point, i'll check the thread & do d2 in a sec.

[the worst]

UsesPython
replaces in to decently hot water and then correctly identifies my meta and makes a claim about it that I think is pretty hard to fake? Especially considering my corpus of games is pretty low and the town! and scum! metas are quite distinct at this point. I think their frustration to the relative lack of weight meta has in these games is genuine, as is their frustration with how they think Newbie games tend to operate. These things seem pretty NAI though. Similarly, I think their meta read on Delta is accurate and a little self-fulfilling, since what they claim Delta operates as is basically exactly what happens. The thing is though, none of this is really a reason for me to townread the slot, unless maybe UP reads the game state and thinks that white knighting me is the best way to right the ship? Either way, UP gets a ton of pressure (which at the time I think is fairly undeserved) and replaces out.

meta diving is a playstyle which i don't relate to very heavily, so i'm really sorry if this comes across as more dismissive than you can respect. just keep in mind, that if you're town and UP is scum, UP already *knows* the answer to their meta analysis. so presenting you as town for it is trivial. as an outsider, i also didn't really follow the distinction UP was trying to point to. but again, it takes a hell of a meta case for me to have any interest in it.

the meta read on Delta was self-fulfilling but like... also kind of self-serving... the argument that there's a difference in the way he blows up & tunnels as town vs. scum is fine, that can be an alignment indicator, but it feels like such a small distinction to me that unless i take UP at face value, i find it really hard to actually see in Delta's posting.

Delta's argument with UsesPython makes me feel a little better about the spot, but I just think the relative lack of aggression is not something I would expect from town!Delta. As I'm writing this, I just wonder how much is him being V/LA for a decent portion of the day.

that's fair. i liked delta's eod1 and i don't have any personal insight to the meta case, so i'm a bit lukewarm on it. i think delta has been put in more situations that would be exasperating than rage-inducing to me personally. but like, that's totally a personality/meta thing and i'm not sure what it means

[the worst]

i type so slowly pc has already saved the day

let me have my hero moment damnit ;(

[the worst]

that's interesting tho i'd love to hear your case on scum!delta & ideally town!snix's slot, if you wouldn't mind?

kkfc is essentially fence sitting you should talk to someone on the delta wagon.

Haha this comment is actually very on point. In my defense, I've been very open that I've struggled to gain traction in this game and had to play a lot of defense. Not to point fingers, but the relative inactivity in this games at times has also hampered me.

why don't you ask snix why they haven't made a catchup post?

I think it's pretty clear at this point we're not getting one.

don't just accept that push them on it. town!snix has a vested interest in being town read scum!snix has a vested interest in being town read as well. the fact that snix is not doing it is worthy of consideration it means that whatever alignment he is he is not strictly playing towards his win condition. Is he lazy town or lazy scum? what would you expect from a lazy town player what would you expect from a lazy scum player? is snix not giving his reads because they'll help town and hinder snix as scum? Their is always a motivation for why someone does what they do. try to examine snix's inaction. threaten to vote them and if snix is playing to win snix will produce one because so far what has been snix's argument for voting delta? like fundamentally it's survival but what did snix actually say? that town is convinced that scum is between snix and delta and they know they're not scum so they voted delta. if snix is townreading delta it is town!snix duty to say so but they don't.

nevermind, well written, you can be the hero

there's a tendency for scum who feel caught/cornered to avoid giving reads or writing extensively to avoid giving info away about their partners/who other townies are. for what it's worth, if snix flips red i'm not really super confident on who the partner is

[the worst]

i'm also like. notoriously bad at mafia.

[the worst]

that's the kind of joke i would make, we'll get along

pedit: get out of my head i'm just about to case ct lmao

[the worst]

VOTE: chicago typewriter

working on this as we speak but i'd love people to weigh in

[the worst]

i started this fun exercise for two reasons. if you're voting delta / not really considering ct, please just have a skim through how ct deals with political clout on day one, and the way ct avoids sorting snix's slot. the way ct used their vote d1 is also pretty indicative of someone who is not trying to find scum. would love to hear if anyone thinks i'm totally wrong here tho.

Spoiler: sorry this is long

- i found when i was catching up that i liked townreads on ct a lot. in hindsight, i think i was just slowly coming around on kkfc at the time. the fact he had the audacity to townread ct in the face of adversity was pretty cool and it rose-tinted my read on ct to an extent.
- when considering my solve, i realised that i had no idea whether a scumteam of e.g. snix/ct made any sense.

ct's earlygame is super focused on pc, but not in a way that produces a real read. consider some of their very early posts directed at pc or about pc --

@CT: So you scumread PC, right?

I'm just going to chalk it up to poorly timed RVS shenanigans. For now. Though

early for what, a wagon?

Yes. Are you saying you are genuinely wagoning Vestrea? For, if so, kindly justify that.

this talks about pc in a way that seems to already know he's town; ct doesn't feel comfortable dishing out a scumread.

????????????? are you good?

Only, let's take a step back so I don't pull a bad scumread on you again.

You voted and put Vestrea at E-1.
I said it's too early to put Vestrea at E-1.
You asked if I meant it was too early for a wagon.
I am responding that yes, it is too early for a wagon and inquiring are you implying that you were wagoning Vestrea.

Yes? No? Is that not how you're perceiving the conversation?

bolded, guilty conscience about being positioned into a pc scumread?
the post also questions pc while also providing an out for him in the same post.

CT -
Would like a response to my vote and reasoning.

I'm still unsure as to PC's motives. If it genuinely was him wagoning, I will vote him; but I think it might just be him trying to bait a reaction.

again, presents a benign motive in the same post as shading pc.

i thought this readlist would be a nightmare to notate, but i snipped all the hedging null reads and it's a lot easier. in short: scum are slightly more motivated than rand to post a full readlist prematurely. these reads aren't weighted, and they aren't matured - i can only think it was posted so it'd seem like ct was efforting.

<snipped null reads>

DeltaBreedy

: Votes HFD with no justification (though later justifies it, though justification isn't great). Votes me for scum-reading but not voting PC, though Deltabreedy should know by now (considering this is our third game together) that I don't really do early votes. Slight scumread.

to me it's noteworthy that this read doesn't consider db's motivation in sparking that conversation. the other part is kind of just nothing. this is one of ct's stronger reads.

Political Clout

: Voted Vestrea, and then exclusively interacted with me about that vote. I'm not liking this at all, but if it matched last game, there's a good chance that I'm misunderstanding their town playstyle. Slight scumread,

this again hints at a scumread while hedging & giving pc excuses.

<snipped null read on my slot>

Now for the lurkers:

Claptastik

: 2 posts, both in RVS. Lurker. Current nullread, will move to scumread as the game progresses.

Vestrea

: 2 posts, both in RVS. Lurker. Current nullread, will move to scumread as the game progresses. Hasn't responded to being put at E-1 at all, will watch either return or replacement with great interest.

noting this because i'm considering partner equity

The further context isn't neccesary for this what I'm about to do (given what the top quote is), but I'll make it anyways - I'm being deliberately misinterpreted. I admit to not being as clear as I could have been in my initial post, which is why I made 96 specifically to clarify, yet no one feels the need to do that. And, like I said earlier, I'd vote Political Clout if it was a wagon and I'm a man of my word.
VOTE: Political Clout

read this post in full it's super interesting. again ct doesn't have any advancement in their read of pc. there's a lot of cognitive load in "i don't know if they're scum or not and i see so many possible ways they could be town, but since i promised i'd vote them if they said 'x' and they said 'x', i'm voting them". let's consider scum!pc for a moment. if scum are presented with a question where one option gets them voted and one question is pro-survival, which do they generally take? ct doesn't seem to consider pc's motivation for ansering the way he did, but uses it as a reason to pivot to voting him. ct stays voting pc for the rest of the phase. this is all we get.

VOTE: KityKimFanClub

Is this still a real vote? Because to me you two look like two Ts in a dick-measuring contest to get the last word in over semantics and nicknames (and junking up the game in so doing).

I mean, on the one hand, I see what you mean. On the other hand,

please

try to use different language so we don't start this up again.

ct mentioned being interested in sorting clap. this interaction doesn't feel like that.

More to come, thinking about how to proceed on others, and waiting on an answer or two.

What answers, specifically?

228 was the answer to this, and uh. i think they're both just trying to look like they're interacting with each other. i don't think clap believes this answer will be insightful, and there's nothing in ct's iso which convinces that ct actually cared about clap's answer.

Also who is the one you implied was scummy?
Chicago, in 187.

I definitely missed this (I actually wasn't even sure what you were implying with that post when I first read it, I thought maybe it was you throwing shade at KKFC). I mean ... okay? I think it's not great behavior to put players at E-1, but it is neither smart town behavior nor smart scum behavior. I wouldn't scumread someone off that. Alone.
Also, I guess, just going to join the chorus of people asking you for a full readlist.

this interaction also feels very flat? if anything it feels like ct might be developing a scumread on clap but this never goes anywhere. again i don't think either of them are interested in the exchange. asking clap for a full readlist feels like it's busywork, and it wasn't even ct's idea when they were apparently engaging with clap hoping to sort his alignment. i'm making myself dizzy.

Delta flipping red makes PC greener and CT redder

-A

I'm not sure I follow the connection here, I'll have to ask you to expand on this as well.

up's response is in 480. it's closer to coaching than anything and ct seems to just take it at face value that his (eventual) biggest scumread is partnered with him? up is also a major critic of ct's vote count analysis, but never makes an effort to sort him beyond association with delta. they just make a point of quoting ct regularly and not getting anywhere with their analyses.

Okay, so I'm about to clock out V/LA for the next two days; I'm going to sum up my position right now:

- I might be missing some finer details, but I'm following the broad stroaks
- I'm seriously looking at a possible KKFC vs Bazuf as SvT right now (cases can and will be justified when I get back), but...
- I think Deltabreedy vs Snix is more likely SvT.
- If one flips red, the survivor could still be scum, likely not though.
- As established, between the two; I will vote Deltabreedy.

VOTE: Deltabreedy

kkfc/bazuf having s/t is really really important, and is obstensibly a significant shift in ct's reads, but isn't something that ct has expanded on. a partner for scum in [delta,snix] is theoretically in there. but it's not interesting. ct has also done very little work in solving snix, a lot of arguing with delta, and concludes that delta is the only scum prospect worth casing. ct does come back with a case on delta but then only goes back & forth with bazuf, there isn't an expansion on these other reads.




i can't pick apart ct's case on delta as well as bazuf did, and realistically i think bazuf is only voting for delta now because of tension & playstyle issues. i probably see the perspective that if ct isn't scum (imo likely with a non-presence e.g. snix), then the team is probably delta/kkfc or something goofy which i'm not super seeing rn personally. i think there are some players here who kind of just want delta to be scum.

[the worst]

VOTE: chicago typewriter

working on this as we speak but i'd love people to weigh in

how did I know you were going to vote ct? I'm actually the third mason.

i know. i'm the fourth mason.

[the worst]

oh right sorry counting to four on webbed fingers is really confusing

[the worst]

I am more available, are we vibing bazuf, delta or kkfc for deep diving?

[the worst]

For Bazuf, on initial read I liked his opening a lot and then sort of middled a lot on him. He was pretty absent for late d1 (which is where a lot of my reads flipped tbh), and his d2 didn't stand out a tonne. Having looked closer at ct, I liked his response to ct's case too. Just talking through that a bit.


863

This it the thing with you this game.
You’re not committing with your analysis.
You want to find Delta scummy, but you don’t know exactly how, so you’re characterizing little red flags, which you say that don’t make him scummy, but you think it makes him scummy nonetheless.
You’re not making sense Chicago.

This is kinda my thesis, though specifically ct's treatment of pc and snix's slot are closer to this mark. I think ct's take on delta is just a bit closer to opportunism. It's hard to believe ct believes what ct is saying. But I believe ct believes that we'll believe what ct is saying.

Delta seems to be a lot over the place in this game and his discussions have escalated for places a bit out of the game analysis.
Do you think that this is scummy?
Well, for me it certainly isn't "normal" town behaviour…
But from the active 7 players, do you think he’s the scummier one? Well, that I don’t agree…

This too, but I also don't believe that ct has evaluated the rest of his suspect pool.


873

I don't see the same thing, but I really love the KKFC/CT theory. There's totally partner equity there, I think it's pretty rare that scum actually come out the gate having each other's backs like that, and I think KKFC's early townread on CT feels kinda earnest? My biggest eyebrow raise moment is that kkfc seemed open to the current wagon then dipped but that's probably just a timing thing.

KKFC/Snix I'm like, not sure I see, I'd need to dive it and I think I'm going to run out of time. In rebuttal, I'm less "kkfc/ct or kkfc/snix but always kkfc", and more "ct/snix or ct/kkfc but always ct", you know?

---

His latest 5 posts are kinda hard to get a read on because they are a bit abstract. I think this gamestate calls for desperation and compromise and I do need to see how Bazuf settles to kinda cement my read on him. That said, I like it for his alignment even if I'm not sure I like his reads. Scum often look for a safe position. "Today's two major wagons are both town, scum are two peripheral players who have been defending each other from the get-go but if I'm wrong maybe Wagon A is also scum, actually nevermind it's Wagon B with the two other possible players, nevermind back to original scum prospect #1 but I don't know his partner, okay actually maybe we need to flip one of today's wagons to soft-clear the other, nevermind I'm voting Wagon B" is not a safe position. I only think the last few posts of his come from scum!Bazuf who has already won (e.g. partnered with you, or himself partnered with kkfc) and is just having fun. I tend to be pretty critical of players who overjustify joining a major wagon, but it felt to me like the way he jumped on it was so bizarre and oblique that it's probably genuine more often than not?

[the worst]

Phone posting & snip-quotes don't work, sorry for the format change. Please jam with me about this, I'm only with y'all for 36 hours or smth and I'm a bit tunnelled so there will be flaws in my logic.

[the worst]

I think I've articulated my feelings on CT as best I can, I definitely don't have this game on lock. If you could throw back some of what you're seeing (especially if you disagree with me), I'd delight in the perspective.

Hmm again not having this game on lock, it's kind of hard to throw confident lists of associated scum pairings out there. I think scum have played well irrespective of who scum are. I'd be pretty impressed if pc picked that as a busting option, so I wouldn't consider pc as a partner. I also think yours & bazuf's associatives with CT are pretty clean. I'd be looking straight at snix, and I guess kkfc as second place but like. There's such a difference in the way ct treats snix's slot to the way ct treats y'all.

If ct flips town, I'd probably reset a little tbh it's kinda hard to pick third place teams that don't include CT! As I said, I'm notoriously bad at mafia. I think a team without ct includes someone who has navigated this phase really well. I think a team without ct in it has kkfc in it probably? I'd be surprised if snix wasn't scum kinda regardless of ct's alignment tbh

Actually the more I think the more I think snix is just the right lim today I also don't like, really....see a world where you're scum with any living players congratulations....

Delta, you're not getting Bazuf today so you may want to consider other options. If you need him to go, can you explain why you think his pivot onto you was scum motivated & where you see partner equity given his most recent posts? I think bazuf/pc has equity in like, the worst timeline, and I think that's a game we lose - otherwise I'm kinda not sure.

[the worst]

I guess snix/bazuf is like some level of possible too but I don't think Bazuf is going about this in a way where Snix ends up looking good. I just think his brain is jumping around a lot.

[the worst]

Yeah point taken, a ct town flip would be very damaging. I don't...really think it's town? But that would be a very weird timeline.

VOTE: snix

You're definitely correct that I'm scrambled (which I think is part of why I vibe w kkfc honestly). I don't think I'll be alive long enough to get unscrambled. Hence why I want to try and check in with as many of y'all as I can before I'm out.

Following a snix red flip -- do you see what I mean about ct's partner equity?
And like, sure I could be totally ass-up on my reads. I often am.
I don't see a clear partner for delta -- where are you seeing his scumbuddies?
I'm also not sure I see any team without snix which seems more likely to me than a team including snix, if this run-on sentence is legible

[the worst]

oh, might bear saying. this game has had a lot of "we are absolutely eliminating between player a and player b" situations. it's always warranted to check why the game enters that state and whether scum are profiting from it. I think [snix, delta] fits within this, I just independently think snix is likely mafia.

[the worst]

Snix what you're doing is amounting to calling the game hard and trying to discredit confirmed town. I already know it's hard. I've mentioned several times that I'm here for 36hrs and going to try my best. If you have the time to be uncertain about my solve, you have the time to convince me on your solve.

[the worst]

HFD was a confirmed town and he voted Snix.
You are too and you're going with Snix. Do you think he seems scummiest than Delta?
If so, I'll hammer him eventually...

Basically yeah. I'd go for ct too, but I independently think snix's slot has done the most to stop the game from being solvable and I can see them as scum with too many people.

If I'm honest, I don't see what you're on about when it comes to partner equity, but I'm probably too close to Clap/UP/Snix's slot in terms of how involved I got to really be objective about it.

No its fair if I'm being confusing. When I'm looking at ct I'm considering whether he's interacting with other players in a way that I'd expect scum to interact with their scumbuddy basically. It takes a lot of cognitive load because not only do you know everyone else's alignment, you also want to give others the impression that your partner is town while lying. That's how scum works in general but interacting with your partner is the most complicated, hardest-to-sell part of the narrative you're constructing.

It's not uncommon to see scumbuddies who ask each other questions and challenge each other, but never go anywhere with it - they aren't willing to commit to having an outstanding townread or scumread on them. That's what I'm seeing between snix's slot and ct.

The flipside is if someone's townread or scumread on their partner looks goofy and flimsy that can be partnery too. So I guess this is all a pseudo-science I'm just pretending I'm wise.

[the worst]

Third finger (in binary)

I love this

re. the rest of the post, I'm not criticising your play, I'm saying I can see it coming from a scum perspective. I get that you asked clap & ut questions, and they answered them, but I don't have any basis for how their answers impacted your reads or how they satisfied the concerns that generated them in the first place. So from an observer perspective, it's very hard to tell whether those were genuine concerns or not.

If you're town, I think you're scum so I'm necessarily misreading you. If you're scum, you're motivated to tell me that I'm misunderstanding you. So I wish I had a better answer to this post, but I do think trying to advance your reads and find a more convincing solve is more helpful than defending yourself here.

My level of confidence in this solve is a lot lower than I'm letting on, I just don't have a better guess

[the worst]

overjustify joining a major wagon, but it felt to me like the way he jumped on it was so bizarre and oblique that it's probably genuine more often than not

Is this referring to Bazuf jumping on the Delta wagon? I think his reasoning for jumping on is really genuine. I also didn't really see the distancing between Bazuf/Delta that one might expect before a bus attempt, so the abruptness makes me pretty confident in Bazuf being town.

Yeah about Bazuf, you're seeing something similar to what im seeing there.

Just to help your attempts to solve this game, do you not think I'm a little guilty of being too charitable towards Snix too? Or is that actually why you see us having partner equity.

Sure, I think you've been charitable towards Snix's slot at times. I think you've let the predecessors get away with a bit, which is why I'm mindful a team of you/snix isn't impossible. I also consider the way you've evaluated snix a little bit clearer than the way ct has, so I don't think it's as likely a pairing.


pedit: you're good, you don't seem unduly mad this is a frustrating situation. please consider -- I'm never going to be able to case you well enough that you'll be satisfied with my case. if we're the same alignment, can we use our time together for something else?

[the worst]

Just for some background, I usually work closer to vibes & collaboration than extensive logic. I have a decent win rate in games I start in, it is harder working back like this. I may not exactly be the 'Anas ex machina' this game needed for town to sweep, but I'd love for my contributions to undo *some* of the brain knot make it easier to solve tomorrow.

For instance I don't feel great about both of my scumreads reacting by insisting that my argument is inadequate

[the worst]

-snip-


pedit: you're good, you don't seem unduly mad this is a frustrating situation. please consider -- I'm never going to be able to case you well enough that you'll be satisfied with my case. if we're the same alignment, can we use our time together for something else?

Certainly, so when I flip town what's town's next step in your mind? Delta then CT? Are you worried about them taking out someone else N2 and counter claiming considering you redirected town back on me? What are your thoughts on PC? You say you townread them (which I did/do too) is there a chance they're toxic scum not toxic town and they've been sitting in our blind spot?

They've dropped a couple of hints that they weren't looking for masons in a way that I think was genuine. I also know that there's some personality mismatches in this game but without them really firing up today, the game would be in a less communicative state and I think they were equipped to slide through without taking the reins if they're scum.

So like, anything is possible, but independently I don't think they're all that likely to be scum.


pedit: I agree a mason cc tomorrow is an obvious scum claim. Also never defend yourself against me. you'll do more magic by showing me than by convincing me, my mind is made of rocks but my eyes are sharp.

[the worst]

I am always receptive to pandering

Voting ct is valid. I'd love to see more of what you see in ct, or who you think their partners might be. Or to flip it -- if they did flip green, where would you be looking tomorrow?

[the worst]

let's slip into an alternate universe, and say we only had one elim left after a ct scum flip. it's final 4, and you + kkfc + bazuf + delta are alive. where would you be pushing?
i hope this question doesn't seem obtuse or anything, i'm trying to find a more analytical prompt for our conversation

i thought the 80% scum thing & resultant drama was pretty goofy, but it was a cool way to get the game started. it's not ai.

[the worst]

oh happy bday pc!!

[the worst]

what do you think of the last couple of pages pc?

pedit: infinite birthdays.

[the worst]

you decide, i'm interested in what you're focused on

[the worst]

i'm kind of back to wanting to flip ct i think i like snix now

[the worst]

Final 3 & final 5 will be really juicy I promise, just keep talking through everything you're thinking

Kkfc what's your take on snix over the last few pages & about delta's & ct's pop-ins?

[the worst]

is ct/delta a thing or do i have to really super deeply reevaluate bazuf?

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VOTE: ct e-1

ct 3 (pc, snix, me)
snix 2 (kkfc, bazuf)
delta 1 (ct)

nv 1 (delta)

i'm actually suddenly very wary that delta is just not voting

[the worst]

That being said, I'm just trying to think through who the teams are depending on flips.

If Snix flips town, it would have to be a CT/Delta team.
If Snix flips scum, then I think it would be CT. Another consideration here is whether Snix's refusal to really engage with or scumread PC is some long con. We've all noted how long the day has been. The thing is, I don't think that the vitriol from their initial conversation is faked at all, so it would have to be CT.

The only primary teams I see right now are:
Snix/CT
Delta/CT
PC/Bazuf

i have been vibing with ct but i can understand how having them at one's throat would be exasperating. they're a leo. i also don't think that snix really like, scumreads pc at all honestly, the more i talk to snix the more i feel like they've just caught up and are already exhausted.

when i got to start of day two i was like "god i hope my predecessor claimed because i don't want to have to act towny in addition to solving this game", lol, i think being anyone in the elimination pool right now would be quite frustrating regardless of alignment.

just a couple of talking points here i guess --
does this align with how you're seeing snix, and do you agree with snix's approach to pc as exhaustion rather than scumminess? or do you think it's driven by having too much info, or by needing to maneuver around pc?

i think i'm in a pretty similar boat with my scumteam probabilities, *except* that there's a remote world where ct/you makes sense. i also don't really think either of pc or bazuf are scum, independent of the fact they've kind of just coexisted all game & have some level of partner equity. i also think that flipping ct today is more likely to crack the game open.

assuming i die, a town-ct flip into a final 5 of [you, snix, pc, bazuf, delta] is a reeeally interesting endgame. most surprisingly, i think i'm hard pressed to consider a delta world without a ct partner unless there's something i'm just epically missing. and i think a ct scum flip means we're kind of just somewhere around the right direction - that removes a lot of paranoia from the current solve (don't really think pc is bussing ct, for example). ct's reads are also developing very slowly giving them a passive demeanor even during the more chaotic parts of the game. that means if they *are* town and get to f5, they're someone who wouldn't be terribly difficult to eliminate for the loss.

@ct, sorry if this sounds uncharitable. it's not intended to be offensive. this player list is just a bit chaotic. honestly, i would argue you & snix have similarities in this regard.

[the worst]

is ct/delta a thing or do i have to really super deeply reevaluate bazuf?

I wonder like, between the two people who are attacking CT early on (PC, Delta) and the two who defended him (me and Bazuf) how the alignment split works out.

I know I'm town (and if you take my word for it) it's unlikely that both scum are going to push on him that early maybe?

cool observation. snix also struggles from having a predecessor who just did not interact with ct at all, which is good if they're scum but like.. makes them hard to read and means they're kind of hard to detach from ct if ct flips scum.

fwiw, I found bazuf's argument for ct-town more convincing but I think your argument for ct-town had the ruggedness of a real human thought which makes me want to believe it.

pc's push on ct was goofy but in like, a theatrical way. ct's reaction to the push has aged pretty poorly in my eye. I liked delta's push on ct by the time I'd caught up, but in retrospect I think it's probably easier to fake. pc is someone who *tried* to paint a target on their own back at the start of the game with that push.

[the worst]

oh a treat before i probably die tonight - jason & dwarf's final reads are paraphrased here. just remember these are from earlier gamestates but they're still pretty insightful. i've paraphrased pretty earnestly and included a couple of like, comments in square brackets about how i'd approach ageing these reads to the current gamestate? but your mileage may vary please mostly listen to the non-bracket stuff.

jason--

thinks it's likely delta/clap rather than delta/mikhail. he saw delta setting up for a town flip. thinks it would've been softer if scum!delta was ready for a scum!mikhail flip. he was weakly town on delta until late in d1, but needed delta to commit to some reads. i don't think jason liked the way delta pivoted onto mikhail at all, and regarded it as 'too much information' [this obviously ages weirdly after a town!mikhail flip, but the editor would caution everyone to reread delta's EOD1 and think about whether or not he already knew mikhail was about to flip town)]

he views bazuf & pc as super towny. he refers to bazuf as so towny that he's scared to see bazuf's scumgame!! pc is town by virtue of their push on kkfc which felt earnest. even when kkfc wasn't ready to like, open up in their conversation, he noted that pc's pushes were regularly in an effort to keep the game moving. kkfc & ct are one tier lower, but still pretty towny. he likes ct slightly more than kkfc. side note that 210, from scum, would be pocketing jason who is almost certainly the n1 kill. this makes less sense from scum!ct. he did voice some concern that kkfc kind of assuaged him by finding a way to townread him [i would contest that kkfc has become the main character of this game during d2 and should be protected at all costs. i'd also argue that it's not unnatural for townies to feel an innate respect & "find ways" to townread dominant town voices, so to speak. jason did come around to leaning town on kkfc also.]

notes mikhail accurately called out town power roles which was dumb and annoying. [i'll note that, in particular, i don't think pc believed in the accuracy of those town power role reads. this is part of why i like pc so much]





dwarf was like, still here to share his developing reads, but his final stated reads in the pt were in summary

very town: bazuf, good pro-town voice, good argument with mikhail
town: katykimfanclub, dwarf liked the way he 'advocated' for mikhail by trying to work through mikhail's reads with people. dwarf liked his reaction to the blow-up with PC.
town: chicagotypewriter, went too quiet & may have been trying to slip undercover, but presented as pretty towny when he was around.
town?: political clout, i don't think dwarf disagreed with jason's towncase on pc but he did see some partner equity in pc/clap.
scummy: deltabreedy. these reads were after jason's reads, i suspect that dwarf largely agreed with jason's case that he was looking for justification to hammer mikhail.
scum: claptastik, just read like caught scum. dwarf mentioned he'd reevaluate in d2 with the time. was d1's elimination if not for mikhail's comments.




hmm am i being too charitable to delta after all?

[the worst]

pc is someone who *tried* to paint a target on their own back at the start of the game with that push.

PC has played this game with a pretty interesting level of bravado that I can't help but admire. Beyond the whole queen/sexual orientation conversation, which seemed like him pushing a boundary too far and was pretty icky. I think this sort of tightrope act is pretty +town?

some of this game will be better cleared up postgame. i don't think i have pc's tone quite worked out. as a queer person, i do sometimes feel my feathers ruffled when i think someone is acting mockingly so like it could be earnest. i'm just not focusing on it tbh - it's easier to make friends and see each other's nice sides when the dust has settled, and i vibe pretty hard with pc's play. i agree that the tightrope act comes from a cleaner conscience which is usually more towny than not.

[the worst]

i do feel comforted continuously reaching a townlean on bazuf, pc and kkfc, then seeing that the fallen masons before me did the same. i feel a little bad for my scumread on ct because i did like the defences on them, i just don't think i can reach the same read.

do any of us disagree that axing [ct, delta, snix] will probably win the game? i don't expect anyone to blindly follow this order, like still do as much work as you're willing in f5 & f3 to get to the bottom of it, but does anyone not feel semi-confidently about this lim pool?

[the worst]

i'm gonna let the thread breathe a little more, the deadline falls in the evening in my timezone so i'll be around. i think ct or delta are fine flips today, snix 3rd place.

i do feel comforted continuously reaching a townlean on bazuf, pc and kkfc, then seeing that the fallen masons before me did the same. i feel a little bad for my scumread on ct because i did like the defences on them, i just don't think i can reach the same read.

do any of us disagree that axing [ct, delta, snix] will probably win the game? i don't expect anyone to blindly follow this order, like still do as much work as you're willing in f5 & f3 to get to the bottom of it, but does anyone not feel semi-confidently about this lim pool?

just one thing to consider do we marinate in the wifom of snix/delta or deal with it today.

yeahhh this is where i'm getting. looking back i feel like i might be the only person who much liked delta's eod1.

[the worst]

as the pool gets smaller, it's mathematically easier to find the scumteam, but scum have a higher % of the votes. so in 3v4, 2v3, 1v2 etc., scum only need one dissenting townie to win the game. they also only need one incorrect member of the elimination pool to win the game. so the more we can sort out now the better.

[the worst]

i do feel comforted continuously reaching a townlean on bazuf, pc and kkfc, then seeing that the fallen masons before me did the same. i feel a little bad for my scumread on ct because i did like the defences on them, i just don't think i can reach the same read.

do any of us disagree that axing [ct, delta, snix] will probably win the game? i don't expect anyone to blindly follow this order, like still do as much work as you're willing in f5 & f3 to get to the bottom of it, but does anyone not feel semi-confidently about this lim pool?

When did I end up in your limpool?

are you saying you're uncomfortable with this solve & if so where should i be looking?

there's like 3 hours to sell me on an alternative if you don't like this

[the worst]

Sorry to be this difficult, but I'm confirmed. I'm not really under any obligation to show my read progression unless I want to be convincing. You're also the only person in the game who I don't need to convince of your alignment.

Can you talk to me about the solve please?

[the worst]

who's snix's partner from your pov

[the worst]

Well you're trying to convince folks to vote for me ahead of Snix but I don't understand how you came to the conclusion that I'm more likely to be scum than Snix when not so long ago you were I think fairly openly townreading me. It feels like you took a look at the mason thread and decided to just openly sheep Jason's read of me without taking into account like the entirety of D2.

You also quite liked my EoD D1, what changed?

i understand that this is disappointing but we don't have enough time for an argument so this conversation isn't going to happen. if I'm wrong on you, help me see the light. or if you think it's just ct/snix then there's probably very little harm in you being the third elimination right?

[the worst]

Realistically, if you can convince people not to vote you, you can get one of your eliminations in kkfc/bazuf at most. Are you telling me you've done no work to determine which is most likely to be aligned with snix who you're certain is scum

[the worst]

UNVOTE:

[the worst]

alright what's your solve then

for the record this conversation is good, I did ask for dissenters against those who figured that 3-person pool would win the game, so your perspective is worth its weight in gold here

I just don't know what it is yet

[the worst]

I also said that my read in Bazuf was faulty. Why would I maintain that scumread when on a re-read it came from misreading their posts?

so you think it's snix/kkfc?

[the worst]

I think I'd need to be sold on a snix/kkfc possibility. Clap started off pretty slow & got pushed by Jason. Kkfc then turned around and started an argument with Jason about his hypocrisy. For the record this wasn't an empty chainsaw defence, kkfc wasn't trying to discredit Jason. He was trying to specifically highlight that what Clap had done wasn't scummy when compared to what Jason had just done. Jason was one of the more domineering voices in the thread at the time. I think that makes sense in a scum!kkfc world where he knows Clap is town, and I think it makes sense in a town!kkfc world, but to me it just feels like such a whacky counter-intuitive way to defend your partner. I'd be impressed and so happy if I'm wrong about this. but compared to kkfc's defence of ct (which was notably less juicy) I'm not sure if i see it.

I'd also need to deep dive partner equity to have a decent idea but I'm not in love with snix/kkfc. what makes you think that's a team?

[the worst]

wait like, you're 50% of what's needed to kill snix. I'm obviously not convinced on how to end the game. how are you waffling here and saying if in doubt you'll vote ct

[the worst]

I don't need to make bargains but I think you should probably put snix to e-1.

[the worst]

I don't need to make bargains but I think you should probably put snix to e-1.

[the worst]

i think i said it before - being confirmed is bliss. i don't need to convert my natural thoughts into something people will find conventionally towny.

if you've got any time before deadline i'd super appreciate some elaboration on your reads. anyone you think is high probability town (bazuf, pc) or trying to iron out some people you're unsure about would both be a huge help

though also understand it's your v/la day so thank you for the time you've given already

[the worst]

oh lawd please don't take my case on ct at face value i'm notoriously bad at mafia. where was your read on ct at prior to me? / reasons?

[the worst]

what did you find shite about their case - specifically did it feel like bad faith or clueless town or etc.?

it's not hard to feel tunneled etc. on someone who's casing you but i feel like it's actually pretty normal to have some read on someone who's casing you

pedit: ahuh.. this game does have two scum in it. is that our solve or are we also looking for a kkfc partner?

[the worst]

i didn't agree with the case initially, but i could absolutely see why it was logical. i can see why town would be motivated to have & make that case. allowing i might be biased because the ghosts of my mason buds agreed. :p

do you not see the town motivation for having that kind of take?

[the worst]

the lim going through was fine. i think what's concerned people is the way you were uncertain about the slot, hesitant to elim it, then did a big display of reevaluating & engaging with him before hammering. that looks like someone who's trying to look like they're a good towny engaging with a doomed slot before eliminating it. do you get what i mean?

[the worst]

I have not read the last few pages so apologies if I've missed anything in the meantime.

Jason and I were almost certain that it would be one of us dead last night. I was inclined (and correct) to think that I would be a more obvious scumread than Jason in the cold light of day, hence why I decided to just get the claim and prepare for a one on one if anybody decided to falsely counter claim. If I had died people would have been more surprised to see me as town and Jason would have had a much easier time of it.

Bazuf: From the outset, Jason and I feel that Bazuf was very likely to be town based on how his playstyle has been compared to prior examples. If Bazuf flips town then we would probably be genuinely shocked.

Clap/Python: We both agreed that Clap's slot felt like caught scum, so Python was always going to have a tough job trying to get out of the hole. I think the level of activity speaks to that. I'm not wholly convinced that it's changed my mind about that slot given just how much Clap struggled.

CT: 210 was talking up Jason. It's a bit weird that he would have been doing that if he was planning on offing Jason last night, so this leans towards a town player.

Delta: Delta was very resistant to the Mik hammer in the end. It was a bit weird how he went back and forth on deciding to go for the hammer after E-1 the second time. The way it was prepping suggests that Delta was preparing for a town flip.

KKFC: Since you ask specifically, Jason wanted to recheck you in ISO because he had concerns over your backpedalling over the argument with PC and that you were trying to appease him by switching to a town read on him. He felt that you were leaning scum but not as heavily as Delta or Clap.

Funnily enough, Mik has a lot to blame themselves for if we end up losing, since he called me out as a power role on 376. The super complicated language and reads completely obfuscated the game for most people and obviously his comments towards Delta yesterday were uncalled for so neither of us were surprised that he died day one.

To make my position, and my vision as clear as I can conceive: Deltabreedy, JasonWazza and KatyKinFanClub are town. Of the remainder, while Political Clout is least likely to be mafia overall, HighFlyingDwarf has much more equity to be a town power role, as of now. Therefore, I propose we eliminate Bazuf, ChicagoTypewriter and Claptastik, in that order. Then, if after all complications, the game continues, and yet there is no further clarity between Political Clout and HighFlyingDwarf, it is most likely that HighFlyingDwarf is not representing a town power role, and should be the final elimination. I am certain there will be clarity by then, so when all is said and done, town wins.

Our shared belief is that Clap/Python and DB are scum. If either of these flip I'm almost certainly dead this evening so.

VOTE: Delta

I believe this is E-2

@delta what was your takeaway from this

[the worst]

delta voted you based on the same thing i'm explaining right now. i'm just like, trying to work out how it's not something you've considered & why it's surprising that it's a point that comes from a town mindset, i guess.

[the worst]

sorry, dwarf* voted you

[the worst]

it's much easier for scum to have conflicted feelings about tragic, doomed miselims. it's also much more incentivising for scum to really heavily evaluate tragic miselims (to look town) than it is for town (who are generally already exasperated by the fatedness of it). idk i picked up what they were putting down. i'm not sure what this means. i'm also probably 36 minutes from being removed from this game. ;(

it has been a pleasure y'all

[the worst]

no good deed goes unpunished, as they say. it's a deception game and liars are incentivised to do good deeds.

[the worst]

sorta hoping someone pops in soon but i can vote before deadline.

[the worst]

you think that's bad? i got a juggling kit supplement ball (base kit not included).

[the worst]

heyo i think i'mma hammer snix

[the worst]

we could tag team ct but i think snix is the right call because of the delta thing. which is a bit annoying but it's the timeline we're in.

[the worst]

don't make me decide. inexplicably, i have a 0% win rate.

[the worst]

alright bear with

[the worst]

VOTE: snix

i'm not really sure how this flips. i hope it's scum, i think snix not *quite* committing to solving here has reasonable caught-scum equity. i also just don't really know. if it is town, i actually think that's relatively good for delta. i think hold him to a really high standard of solving tomorrow. his reads are not very advanced and there's nothing delta has done which scum can't, i'm just not sure if he's been scumread for the right reasons so far.

if this is scum i think this is still a pretty good bus for delta. there's a noted difference between his approach to snix (this slot is scum and i cannot advance my reads until it flips), vs. mikhail's slot (i don't know your alignment but you need to die so the game can progress). there is a commonality - his d1 hammer & his d2 push have been on the basis of gamestate situations which have been so paralysing to his ability to interact with the game that his other reads have stopped progressing over it.

basically either way, i'd be absolutely grilling delta in f5. but like especially if this is a town flip, please force him to work his magic rather than just turbo-eliminating him.

i'm pretty sure kkfc is town. as i said i think pc's alignment is going to win the game lmao i really hope pc is town but they are in my blind spot a bit. bazuf has done a lot of things which are good for town, but i guess it's not unreasonable to say that a fair bit of his content could be faked as scum. i still think he's much less likely to be scum than just 2 of the [ct, snix, delta] dream team.

miss u all already have fun without me

[the worst]

flip flopping is my LIFE

[the worst]

don't cry i'll see you at the town victory party

[the worst]

thanks for modding sky! gg everyone!

i commentated the gamestate of the last phase in the dead thread so my thoughts are kinda there, i'm happy to be yelled and and stuff.

Nice.

Well done everyone. In particular, I think I learned a lot (and maybe gained some confidence in myself) this game? The pep talk from PC in the middle of Day 2 honestly meant a lot to me

when I was rereading towards the end of my casing, I did a double-take on reading your early posts again. you were transcendent this game, I wasn't joking when I said you became the main character.

[the worst]

gg snix, you did well in a really rough spot i think!

[the worst]

when I was rereading towards the end of my casing, I did a double-take on reading your early posts again. you were transcendent this game, I wasn't joking when I said you became the main character.

What do you mean by that? :O

you showed a lot of development in your playstyle, and i think went from a reasonably passive force in the game to someone who was keeping conversation flowing & was quite essential to the game being won. pc had a similar switch, though by sheer presence i think yours was a lil more obvious. it was cool to witness.

[the worst]

what did you see?

i spotted some stuff but i already knew lmao

[the worst]

oof good luck with your job hunt pc good game

[the worst]

Worst - thank you for coming into the game and steadying the course. Your fresh eyes were, I think, integral to pushing the game forwards and frankly you put us all on your back. Bravo!

thanks fellow tom!




this game was odd. even besides the d1 lim, there was also a lot of friction in this game in a broader sense - there were quite a lot of mismatched playstyles at work here and i'm really glad we all banded together enough to see the game through. tension & personalities are pretty common but this was for sure one of the stranger vibes I've had in a 9p game, for what that's worth.

i'd feel kinda weird talking about the mikhail/UP situation in a tonne of detail given i'm a site mod. this isn't like, my lane (i'm discussion side), but if you want us to note anything you think exceeded what's fair, please report it.

I will just say as a friendly acquaintance, not a mod: UP's analysis was, ultimately, manipulative. have to admit, I glazed over a lot of their posts because they posted a *lot* and a bunch of it was kinda left-field meta which I didn't understand the point of. I didn't find their conclusions satisfactory, which is why I didn't find them towny.

If, in the heat of the moment, the game's getting to you, always feel free to reach out to the game mod. Forum mafia's not worth bearing pain over.

[the worst]

well played, CT. it was like, very hard to feel confident on you for a long time. i really enjoyed that your play style is simultaneously like, insightful and interesting, without making your alignment & motivations particularly clear. i'm excited to play more with you (and hopefully roll scum together soon. )