Newbie 783 - Mongol Mafia - Game Over

BlyndSikick · Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sat May 02, 2009 4:33 pm

/confirm

BlyndSikick · Post Post #13 (isolation #1) » Sun May 03, 2009 8:50 am

So Mod, or anyone for that matter, we start talking now?

BlyndSikick · Post Post #16 (isolation #2) » Sun May 03, 2009 9:10 am

Vote: No Lynch

A 2/9 shot of guessing right? I think I'll pass and wait until the next day phase... let everyone with night actions gain some info.

BlyndSikick · Post Post #18 (isolation #3) » Sun May 03, 2009 9:17 am

Vote: No Lynch

My apologies

BlyndSikick · Post Post #36 (isolation #4) » Mon May 04, 2009 3:48 pm

If we lynch a townie today, then tomorrow the townie:mafia stands 5:2 lynch another townie and it's 3:2 in a lylo situation... (43% chance of happening)

If we lynch a townie today, and no lynch tomorrow it's 4:2 (un-calculable)

If we lynch a townie today, and mafia tomorrow, it's 4:1 (19% chance of happening)

If we lynch a mafia today, 6:1 and mafia tomorrow, game over (3% chance of happening)

Do what you will with these stats

BlyndSikick · Post Post #37 (isolation #5) » Mon May 04, 2009 3:57 pm

I play on debate.org, however games regularly consist of 25-ish people... we get all sorts of roles, roles that might be truly detrimental if lynched and usually enough information is gained on night phase 1 to help the town come day phase 2... It kinda never occurred to me that with this few people, and such a limited amount of resources as far as night actions go that we might not get info come tomorrow, hence my no-lynch vote...

With all the strategy brought to light, I see error in my thinking and

UNVOTE