Newbie 783 - Mongol Mafia - Game Over

[Pablo Molinero]

/Whoo, IC confirm! ...How odd, it apears that I'm the only one with an "*". I must rule that much to count for 2 ICs.

[Pablo Molinero]

Vote: Debonair Danny DiPietro

Alliteration is for chumps.



Also: Try to get an avatar, new people. It makes it much easier to figure out who is who. Trust me. /ICmode

[Pablo Molinero]

Votes, even those for No Lynch, need to be in bold: "

Vote: SAMMICHES! [/b ]" but without the spaces in the tags.

[Pablo Molinero]

He and I both know I'm better at this game than he is, so his vote is cast purely out of envy.

Actually, I am sort of scared of you if you're mafia.

Btw, the vote for a no-lynch is sorta silly since we only have a 50-50 chance of getting a cop for investigative results. Otherwise we're just giving the mafia a free kill and putting the town at even numbers (which is bad, due to endgame situations, see the following...)

Lynch today:

9 lynch to 8
8 NK to 7
7 lynch to 6
6 NK to 5
5 lynch to 4
4 NK to 3 - Mafia win

- Town gets 3 lynches

OR

No Lynch today:

No Lynch
9 NK to 8
8 lynch to 7
7 NK to 6
6 lynch to 5
5 NK to 4 - Mafia win

- Town gets 2 lynches.

The lynch is the only way for the town to kill mafia. Even if we're taking a random shot, it's better than no shot at all. Any naysayers?

[Pablo Molinero]

unvote, vote: Blyndsikick

Blyndsikick, what is your exposure to mafia? Have you played before (here or elsewhere)? Actually anyone that wants to answer that question, that would be grand.

[Pablo Molinero]

Jarmo, Pablo Molinero: Do you think it's productive to vote for people for not knowing basic theory? Is there any possibility that Blyndsikick is wily scum who knows that NL is bad and is aiming to somehow trick us into doing it anyway?

To the second part: possibly, but I sorta shot that idea to hell (for good reason) and the whole town is against it, so the point is moot now.

To the first: voting early is a great tool to gauge people's reactions (the person you're voting and the surrounding town). Quicklynches happen every once and a while, but it looks like no one is in terrible danger in this game.

[Pablo Molinero]

If we lynch a townie today, then tomorrow the townie:mafia stands 5:2 lynch another townie and it's 3:2 in a lylo situation... (43% chance of happening)

If we lynch a townie today, and no lynch tomorrow it's 4:2 (un-calculable)

If we lynch a townie today, and mafia tomorrow, it's 4:1 (19% chance of happening)

If we lynch a mafia today, 6:1 and mafia tomorrow, game over (3% chance of happening)

Do what you will with these stats

Well that is, of course, on the truly random-voting plane. Hopefully the town's intuition will boost those numbers a bit.

Also,

unvote

seeing as you have not played with this setup before.

[Pablo Molinero]

Quiet you.

What is everyone's favorite role (or what you most want to play as if you've never played before)? I find the deduction of being plain-ol' vanilla town is the most fun and that I still have no damned idea how to play as a good mafia member.

And

Vote: ekiM

for questioning my brilliance in his last post.

[Pablo Molinero]

Aaaand Jarmo is at L-1 (1 away from lynch). No dropping the hammer, anyone. This is typically time to either look for Jarmo to claim if there was legit suspicion on him or look at the people on the bandwagon if it looks like crap.

In this case,

unvote, Vote: Shadeauz

for jumping on the blatant bandwagon and putting Jarmo at L-1 even after Jarmo's last post where he conceded and unvoted. Opportunistic is the word of the day.

[Pablo Molinero]

Erm... for being coherent and having good grammar?

[Pablo Molinero]

DDD

Another thing I don't like? Pablo's reaction, too cautious, especially following on the heels of his vote on BlyndSikick which completely lacked in caution.

Yes, I am seeing the double standard there, too. The vote would have gone to pp in a heartbeat, but I still want to hear from Shadeaux for his incredibly brief L-1 vote.

pp

Reasoning at this early stage isn't as important as provoking a reaction ( and hence potentially revealling more information for the whole town's benefit). It would seem my vote did its job.

Yes, but provoking a (valid) reaction against yourself does not seem beneficial to the town. It just gets you lynched.

What do you think of Danny putting a third vote on him? How about Shadeaux putting Jarmo at L-1 with little comment?

Is this a question to everyone or someone in particular?

[Pablo Molinero]

What do you think of Danny putting a third vote on him? How about Shadeaux putting Jarmo at L-1 with little comment?

On one hand I think it's possible DDD was hoping for a quicklynch in a newbie game, which is a very real possibility, but at the time I had no suspicion, because I tihnk he was just trying to drum up reactions/talking points.

What I find bothersome is that he did not flinch at Shadeaux's vote and said,

DDD

I don't have any problems with it either. Sure it was opportunistic, but it was seemingly legitimate in response to the opportunistic vote of Jarmo.

Two wrongs don't make a right? Double standards are bad?

[Pablo Molinero]

pp

All townies win if the town wins right? Regardless of if dead or alive. If so then I'm more than fine with this happening.

Yeah, but you shouldn't be one to say "oh well" and 'take one for the team' unless you're really convinced you're setting the scum up for the fall. Otherwise you're just putting the town one kill loser to a loss. Town wins whether lynched or not, sure, but forging your own destiny is the fun of the game. I am inherently wary of martyr attitudes.

pp

I find the best way to learn is by jumping straight in, so if you see me doing anything particularly wrong please explain why so.

Sure, we'll do our best to point out fallacies and rules and the like, but we're still playing the game, so it's not like we're going to coach possible scum as to what they should say.

Shade

A scum, however, might be quite tempted to. And Jarmo would've definitely been obligated to scrounge a defense, or at least talk more. Surely it looks scummy on my part, but I'd risk it to put the pressure.

I can accept this reasoning. Anyone hammering at the time, if Jarmo flipped town, would be instantly a very, very high suspect as scum tomorrow.

Hopefully as replacements/people return, we'll get a full game going.

[Pablo Molinero]

I didn't like the reasoning behind Shadeaux's vote. I don't think creating bandwagons with no reasoning or evidence is good.

So vote: Shadeaux

Also, i will closely watch purple princess, due to her "random" vote.

That seems awfully convenient. Pop in, see who the pressure is on, and wander away. Active lurking. Instead of just "watching" how bout you question?

I think my vote is still on Shadeaux and I'll keep it there a little while longer. I dunno whether he's sincere or not, but the fact remains what he did is done. I've firsthand seen the effects of backpedaling to explain yourself and they're never good. Protip: gambits rarely work.

[Pablo Molinero]

Wo cares if Shadoux put him at l1 when you compare it to PP voting with no good reason and when confronted about it changed to random vote.

That's a fun little, and very blatant, misdirection tactic. "Who cares if X did something when Y did somthing else". Guess what? They're both suspicious! If you wanted to tunnel in on pp and apply pressure, you would have been free to do so, but this kind of attempt to pull Shadeux out of the fire as you do so does not sit well with me one bit.

FoS: ivan

[Pablo Molinero]

Eeeeh, your tone in your discussion with pp has been far too nice-nice for my liking. Saying things like:

Either way I will try and point you in a more town mentality.

I understand what you mean about voting d1 is more usefull by the feedback the town gets than the actualy vote. But at the same time your vote must be cast using a rationale of sorts.

Does not exude, "I think you're scum! Break, damn you!" So your vote is just sorta sitting there right now. While voting is a good start for some people, you gotta back it up with questions to either prove (or disprove) your hypothesis. Otherwise, you're just looking for people to hop on your bandwagon. (To be fair, pp has been absent since Fri).

btw, I think purple PRINCESS is a girl.

[Pablo Molinero]

PP, you might want to start scumhunting and/or justify your vote, cuz your vote is just sorta sitting on me without any weight. You've shown you're around, now address some of the things in the past 2 pages. That's not much reading to go through.

DDD, where you at?

[Pablo Molinero]

unvote, vote: purple princess

L-1, folks

Your apathy has given us nothing. While you've 'owned up' to your mistake, you stopped short of what you need to do to make amends. Place a vote. Give us a target or you're the next best thing.

[Pablo Molinero]

I'd be up for a lurker lynch. How does the town feel about bumping off the unproductive/hiding scum?

[Pablo Molinero]

(Where'd he go?)

Homework happened. Damned flight mechanics.

[Pablo Molinero]

unvote

as I catch up.

[Pablo Molinero]

Yeah, I have no glaring problems with the most active players of Icerint, ekiM, or Katy. They haven't said anything glaringly outrageous and the heat should, understandably, be on PP and Shadeaux.

The difference I see in them is in their styles / tells. While I agree w/ DDD that PP reversing her opinion voting for me is suspicious, how is that any different than Shadeaux's "clever" L-1 ruse where he voted first and tried to justify it later? Also Shadeaux busted ot the ol' "thanks for your opinion," in his most recent post when his justifications were questioned. Never, ever think that's a townie move and it reeks of *trying* to look town.

Also, while I hate (HATE!) the "oh, well, looks like I'm the lynch" attitude PP has, and would be all over it on a normal game, it's an attitude that newbies show a damn lot. I've seen far to many newb lynches happen just on day one due to lack of effort. Still, I'm not saying that absolves PP of anything, she's in my top 2 on principle alone of disappearing after being called out (but that's another notch against Shadeaux, too).

Her or Shadeaux (or their replacements) got quite a bit to answer for. I'll hang on to my vote til they show.

[Pablo Molinero]

Yeah, SOG's complaint ain't terribly valid. I was trying to drum up some discussion and get everyone posting early in the game (see how well that worked out. )

Tracker's behavior is one of the more baffling things I have seen in a while. His post of:

(no particular order, though the top bunch are the most scummy and the bottom ones are least.)

Is wonderfully confusing and contradictory. While he says that scum will want to ride the town's suspicions to a mislynch (correct) he basically goes ahead and does it anyways. And declaring a pressure vote like he did, is not only ineffective (because, let's be honest, a single vote on someone with little to no suspicion isn't going to do much to provoke a panicked reaction. DDD is no newbie) but it is also moderately scummy in the way that it's looking for others to commit to this line of thinking before he does. Testing the waters before taking the dive. Overly tentative action is somewhat scummy and/or newbie.

Also, on a stylistic standpoint, I'm getting annoyed by the

constant

whining for more activity when there obviously is a consistent game going now that the reason for the stall in the first place, need for replacements, has been fixed. Quit your bitching and play the game. Posts like:

Suspicions sliding off PP for the most part and onto DDD and Furpants, some on penguinman for lurking

And

finished p5,l

DDD- no depth posts, possible scum

IVan- see DDD

PP - undecided

Pengiun - i'm totally fine with a lurker lynch, that's how/why the town lost the last game i played

Pablo - undecided

Furpants - undecided leaning scum

Jarmo (now Iec) - undecided

ekim - undecided leaning scum

ice - undecided

note: i don't think replacements should be totally forgiven for the person they replaced

if i missed anyone forgive me

...Are not adding a whole lot in the way of content.

And double/triple posts annoy me. But sadly, not liking someone's style =/= scum, as I've seen many, many times. Still, the above keeps you at #2.

SOG's scatershot of "I don't like" statements about nearly everything in the game is a great way for scum to shoot a lot of ideas out there to see what sticks. It ain't terribly productive to just point out everyone's faults when you have one vote. Throw out your suspicions when you can act on them. While he did throw out a vote, there was little true focus in the post on Iecerint to draw out a good reaction from the town (instead people can just pick and choose, because more likely than not everyone is going to agree with one or two of the things he said). It's a negative post and a moderately "safe" post, and I think it's plenty shady.

Seeing as PP=SOG, this won't come as a suprise.

vote: semioldguy

[Pablo Molinero]

Telling about the things I do like would be helpful to scum.

Well, this is a fallacy and bad defense. The problem is not you pointing out what you do not like, it's pointing out what you do not like in 5 of our players when you can only reasonably focus in on one or two of them.

The complaint that it makes it so everyone can find something to agree with is not a good arguement either. Whether I make my opinions in one post or in many, there is more than likely going to be some things that each person agrees with. This would go for everyone; it would be odd if there were players who 100% disagreed with each other.

You're just stating the obvious with the above. The point isn't people agreeing with you in the game, of course that's gonna happen at times. If you build a good case on one person, I would hope that some people will agree, and some people of course won't. You deal with that adversity and debate instead of putting out safe, searching, blanket statements.

[Pablo Molinero]

What do you think of Jarmo requesting to be replaced out when his wagon got rolling? I think Jarmo doing so is a scum tell

He requested a replacement well after his wagon had come and gone. The heat was well on Shadeaux and PP be the time that he left. I would agree with you if this was the case, but I think your timeline is wrong. He did disappear when he was at L-1, but he came back with this:

I missed a few days without a computer, so to see so many posts is awesome. I had to go back a bit a read what was going on.

And call me a fool for being a trusting person, but I tend to believe RL excuses (unless the person does something dumb, like post on-site in their 'away' time frame).

I will look at Iecerint in iso later, though.

[Pablo Molinero]

Ah. Now I get it. Voluntarily replacing instead of flaking completely? I dunno, I can remember 1 of 2 people that have done that in my games being scum (I do remember Mini 775). Hmm, not a big enough sample size to get significant trends in my personal experience. Other opinions?

[Pablo Molinero]

Yeah, I need to see the current count to decide what to do with my vote.

[Pablo Molinero]

He’s basically pushing the only other serious wagon on then his own for what appears to be that reason, it’s the only serious wagon other than his own.

To be fair, with only two days left before deadline, it is typical for the people on the chopping block to jump on the other for survival reasons only. After all, if you know yourself as town, the other guy is always a better option. However, with a game as active as this, I think we could still swing any lynch of whoever we wanted even in "just" two days, so he loses points for taking the easy way out, but it's not as

completely

damning as you make it out to be.

[Pablo Molinero]

ivanavich, do you realize that your vote is still on SOG? Back it up or give some analysis of his play, plz. You've said only one good statement about him so far. Are PP's transgressions enough to get him lynched?

You’ve said:

I played with SOG last game, and this game I have come to realize I still disagree with most of what he says. On the other hand I have no problem with his assesment of players and encourage it. I do want to know what he doesn't like and shame on those of you saying discouraging it. If he has something not to like about every player here why would that be a problem? Take what he gives and use it if you can. As long as he is not being manipulative and giving bad info it should be usefull info.

I hardly think what SOG has had to say has been blanket statements. A couple points he made had escaped my notice until he mentioned them.

Which is hardly damning the guy.

[Pablo Molinero]

unvote

I'm rereading Shadeaux and liking him/tracker less and less. More later.

[Pablo Molinero]

Ah, rubbish. Lynch those bastards, town.

[Pablo Molinero]

DDD, you bastard. The mafia drowned the town in a wall of text on day 2, which I guess is a different kind of way to win. Well done there, pity I didn't get to play more.