Newbie 1466: ICECREAM! (Game Over)

[awesomeusername]

Hey guys, I'm here!

This is my first game on MafiaScum but I've a decent amount of experience elsewhere. I've already read through the thread briefly, and I'll post my notes as soon as I get them organized.

[awesomeusername]

Wall post alert. Reads first:

Ulysses96

- I have so few notes on him, I had to go back and ISO him to try to get a read. I like how he's coming up with original content and he seems fairly town motivated, but it makes me wary when people slip under my radar.

Null-town

for now, I guess.

TeedyKay

- I found myself nodding along with most of his reads post (well, the relevant part of it), though his Surye read seems slightly OMGUS-y. He doesn't seem to be afraid to draw attention to himself, but there's a lot of fluff which could certainly be a facade. I'd say in general fluff (especially confusing fluff) is slightly anti-town, but otherwise, he's

Leaning town

-motivated.

huateasa

- If I understand correctly, huateasa is under fire for not seeming to care about scumhunting? Is this because of post 102 in which she is opposed to Thor's interrogation of vonflare? (Correct me if I'm wrong, please.) Actually, I partially agree that Thor seems to be leading town towards an easy lynch target, but getting information is a good thing... Townfolk shouldn't have anything to hide.

Not sure

whether this is a logic error or a scumtell.

vonflare

- He's clearly a very new player, even if he hadn't said so. Something is keeping me from calling him obv-town, and I'm not sure what.

Leaning town

easily though.

Karlos4

- He was sheeping Thor really hard for the first half of the game, but he's backed off a bit. I don't really think the whole editing the quote thing is a scumtell. I do, however, get the feeling in a few of his posts that he's trying to look like he has town motivation, and some his logic doesn't make that much sense to me. I get the feeling that a lot of it is just that he's new, though.

Not sure-scum

SalmonellaDreams (SE)

- I disagree with whoever said SalmonellaDreams is obvtown. I guess that's partially because I'm automatically a bit suspicious of people who post so little, because he does seem rather town-motivated. So

leaning town

, certainly, but not obvtown.

Surye (SE)

- So much about Surye seems town-motivated except for the fact that he's not scumhunting at all, which bothers me. I don't think his frustration with TeedyKay's style tells either way.

Not sure-scum

.

Thor665 (IC)

- As I believe I mentioned above, I kind of get the feeling from Thor665 that he was trying to push a lynch on an inexperienced player. I also think a Karlos-Thor scumteam is a notable possibility. However, ISO'ing him, he isn't actually pushing vonflare that hard. I like a lot of what he has to say, too. In particular, that bit in post 83 about judging players based on motivation I strongly agree with. However, I shouldn't let agreement of opinions affect my read.

Not sure-town

.

VOTE: Karlos4
Let's see what happens.
(The difference between "null" and "not sure" is that "null" stems from a lack of reads and "not sure" stems from conflicting reads.)

Now, I'm going to give you each some homework. Yay!

@Ulysses96: You haven't posted in a while. What do you think of vonflare now?
@TeedyKay: You voted for Karlos4 quite a while ago. Have your reasons for thinking he's scummy changed at all? Do you still he's scummy?
@huateasa: Why are you opposed to vonflare being interrogated? Would you be opposed to me interrogating you, right now?
@vonflare: What's the biggest, most significant scumtell you think anyone's dropped so far?
@Karlos4: What is something you disagree with Thor about? How strong is your vote on vonflare?
@SalmonellaDreams: What makes you trust Thor? Do you trust Thor?
@Surye: As the only person who isn't voting at the moment, who are your current scumreads?
@Thor665: What do you think of Karlos?

Elsewhere, I am known as awesome, AU, or AUN. Take your pick.

[awesomeusername]

huateasa

- If I understand correctly, huateasa is under fire for not seeming to care about scumhunting? Is this because of post 102 in which she is opposed to Thor's interrogation of vonflare? (Correct me if I'm wrong, please.) Actually, I partially agree that Thor seems to be leading town towards an easy lynch target, but getting information is a good thing... Townfolk shouldn't have anything to hide.

Not sure

whether this is a logic error or a scumtell.

That is such a bad description of what's going on with the Huaasslkjd wagon that I am forced to ask 'how well do you think you have read the game at this point?'
I mean, did you even so much as skim over my posts when I explained my issue with the slot?

I didn't read the game super well, and I was a bit confused about this accusation in particular, but I thought I had at least some grasp on it.

Is it because Hua made an attack on you which you then claimed was blown out of proportion and unfounded, and Hua was unable to satisfactorily respond? In other words, Hua attacked you for nothing?

[awesomeusername]

I didn't read the game super well

Why?

Excited to get playing, I guess. I read the thread once and ISO'ed most people, and I thought that was sufficient for now.

And awesomeusername (AUN) could you pls tell me which post seemed suspicious about me?

There's not really one single post that rang lots of bells, but I think the first sentence of post 116 and all of 120 are pretty typical of why I suspect you. You seem to be way too sure of Thor. I understand you have a really strong townread on him, but it's so early to be just following him. I think "someone else already said what I was going to say" would be an easy way to look like you're trying to scumhunt without actually contributing. Also, the original contributions you have made seem to me to be based mainly on hypotheticals (e.g. post 76) rather than actual tells, which is another easy way to seem to scum hunt.

@enforce debate: I understand what Karlos is trying to say, vonflare. I think he was saying "My vote does more when it's on vonflare than Salmon." (Correct me if I'm wrong, please, Karlos.) And @182, no. I don't think town would just say "I'm not scum." Town would defend themselves. Karlos's defense seems relevant to me.

[awesomeusername]

Karlos' defenses make sense to me, and they check out. The more I think about it, the more Karlos's actions seem newbish rather than scummy. And vonflare is really pushing… The case against Hua makes more sense to me now, too, but I'd rather not put her at L-1 yet. Guess I'll go with my other slight scum read.

UNVOTE: Karlos4
VOTE: Surye

To be clear, I still think it's quite possible that Karlos is newbscum, though I disagree with much of what vonflare is saying. I would be on board for a Hua lynch if nothing changes.

@Karlos, 172: Let me rephrase my question: Do you disagree with Thor about anything?

@vonflare, 176: The "wolf" quote is from Karlos to Hua, not Surye to Karlos. Also, why is 175 directed at me?

[awesomeusername]

Just a heads up, Hua is at L-1 now.

Please, nobody vote Hua unless we're ready to lynch.

I'd like to hear her one more time at the least, and I'd be rather uncomfortable with today ending this early.

@Karlos, why did you move your "pretty strong" vote from vonflare? Do you still think he's scum?

[awesomeusername]

@Awesomeusername - you don't appear to support the Hua wagon, so why just make that comment as opposed to assessing the wagon, or advancing the Karlos wagon, or doing something else? I feel kind of like you're sitting on the side, happy with how things are going, but not wanting to be involved.

I'm feeling pretty conflicted about Karlos now, which is one reason I moved off his wagon. The other reason was to see how vonflare reacted, since he seemed to be trying really hard to get me to help him push a lynch on Karlos. I'm trying to resolve my conflicting read on Karlos through questions like the one in my previous post. But yeah, you're right, now that vonflare has reacted (satisfactorily, I might add), my vote would be better served on Karlos. I wasn't really thinking about that. I wasn't really thinking about anything besides quickly warning everyone about L-1, I guess.

UNVOTE: Surye
VOTE: Karlos4

As for the Hua wagon, I've been ruminating over Ulysses' vote. His voting pattern for the entire day has been kinda opportunistic, but there's not that much to go on. Karlos' vote is being addressed by my question.

[awesomeusername]

@Salmon: I think you missed my question in 166:

@SalmonellaDreams: What makes you trust Thor? Do you trust Thor?

[awesomeusername]

@Karlos: Yeah, it's possible that Thor's setting up a lynch. He's certainly the most influential player at the moment. That's one big reason you're under attack: You seem to have been blindly following him without thinking his reasons through for yourself. Anyways, do you still think vonflare is scum?

I think my problem with the Thor vs Hua debate is the issue of lying vs seeing things differently. Showing that what someone says is incorrect isn't the same thing as showing that they're lying. I do think it's the best lead we've got, though, at the moment.

[awesomeusername]

Oh, and I moved my vote back to you, Karlos, because my vote on Surye wasn't really accomplishing anything. Since I am questioning you, I may as well make use of my vote.

[awesomeusername]

That's L-1 as well, so careful.

Bold text is more eye-catching when it's next to non-bold text.

I think my problem with the Thor vs Hua debate is the issue of lying vs seeing things differently.

Which do you think it is and why?

Well, that's the question, and I'm not entirely sure how to tell the difference. Clearly, lying implies knowledge that the statement offered is wrong. The statement in question is something along the lines of "Thor blew vonflare's error out of proportion for scummy reasons." So I'm looking for bits in Hua's posts that imply that she doesn't really believe this statement.

The only thing that really sticks out to me so far is that Hua continues to attack Thor despite this:

Afterwards, all I can see are questions that place him in a position where Karlos, Teedy, and Ulysses dissect his every action - but not necessarily for scum-hunting reasons - they seem more eager to join the bandwagon with you on using your posts and "harmless" questioning to put him down further.
By asking your "harmless" questions, you've convinced a good majority of the thread that he's an inexperienced player; as a result, the votes began leaning towards vonflare as he struggled to pick himself up from his initial mistake.

To me, that seems like a stronger scumtell for Karlos, Teedy, and Ulysses than for Thor. I think convincing everyone that vonflare is inexperienced should actually cause the town players to be a little more lenient, not to vote him. Voting someone because they're inexperienced makes no sense for town.

@huateasa: Given the above, why did you continue to pursue Thor? Am I interpreting you wrong?

[awesomeusername]

@Karlos - Salmonella is vastly more obv. town than you, so I'm not sure why you're batting at him.

@Thor665: What do you think of Karlos?

I have no particular sense of the slot at this stage.

@Thor: Where are you getting your read on Salmon from?

@Karlos:

@Karlos: ... do you still think vonflare is scum?

[awesomeusername]

Also, UNVOTE: Karlos4, as I'm leaning towards the Hua wagon at the moment.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: The null on Surye's read list stood out to me, and made me realize that I didn't really have much reason for a town read on Salmon: basically just that other people thought he was town and I didn't notice anything amiss. I just thought it was funny you had a solid read on someone with so little from them.

@huateasa: Am I stating your initial argument correctly?

1. Thor’s question to vonflare was intentionally insulting.
2. The insulting nature of the question was intended to make vonflare look vulnerable.
3. By making vonflare look vulnerable, Thor intended to start a wagon on vonflare.
4. Intentionally starting a wagon on someone in this way is scummy.
5. Therefore, Thor’s question to vonflare was scummy.

I do agree that some people on this wagon don't look very good. I'll look at them more deeply shortly.

[awesomeusername]

@hua:

In 220, I was wondering why you didn't switch gears then, not now. The latter is pretty obvious.

Is this right? Could you state it in bullet points like I'm doing?

1. Thor didn't think vonflare was scum.
2. Thor’s question to vonflare was intentionally insulting.
3. The insulting nature of the question was intended to make vonflare look vulnerable.
4. By making vonflare look vulnerable, Thor intended to start a wagon on vonflare.
5. Intentionally starting a wagon on someone without a scumread on that slot is scummy.
6. Therefore, Thor’s question to vonflare was scummy.

[awesomeusername]

I'm not saying I agree with this logic (in fact I'll say right now that I don't).

Let's start from the back.

@Karlos: Which of the 6 points below do you disagree with and why? You can pick more than one if you want. Thor, don't analyze this version of hua's argument yet please.

1. Thor didn't think vonflare was scum.
2. Thor’s question to vonflare was intentionally insulting.
3. The insulting nature of the question was intended to make vonflare look vulnerable.
4. By making vonflare look vulnerable, Thor intended to start a wagon on vonflare.
5. Intentionally starting a wagon on someone without a scumread on that slot is scummy.
6. Therefore, Thor’s question to vonflare was scummy.

@hua: I'm saying that it's weird that you were pursuing Thor when you posted 102 because your logic seems to point towards other people more. Basically, I think there was an inconsistency in your logic that makes it look like you already had your sights set on Thor; I'll elaborate after I'm done with my little experiment.

[awesomeusername]

By asking your "harmless" questions, you've convinced a good majority of the thread that he's an inexperienced player; as a result, the votes began leaning towards vonflare as he struggled to pick himself up from his initial mistake.

Why would a townie bandwagon someone for being inexperienced?

[awesomeusername]

That does not make sense to me. But I'll refrain from commenting further until Karlos responds.

[awesomeusername]

@Karlos: OK, thanks.

@Ulysses: Which of the 6 points below do you disagree with and why? You can pick more than one if you want.

1. Thor didn't think vonflare was scum.
2. Thor’s question to vonflare was intentionally insulting.
3. The insulting nature of the question was intended to make vonflare look vulnerable.
4. By making vonflare look vulnerable, Thor intended to start a wagon on vonflare.
5. Intentionally starting a wagon on someone without a scumread on that slot is scummy.
6. Therefore, Thor’s question to vonflare was scummy.

@hua: OK, I think I can see where you're coming from. I still think it's bad play for town to jump on the wagon of an inexperienced player for no better reason, but since we're in a newbie game I can see how you might expect something like that to happen.

@Thor: I don't think she's lying.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: No, her logic says you can't intentionally "insult" anyone you don't have a scum read on without looking scummy. I think she's reading your somewhat abrasive play style as scummy. I'm going to read up on your meta and I advise hua to do the same.

I don't think the interpretation of vonflare is all that central to the attack (though her misinterpretation means she wasn't reading very carefully). Her point was that you shouldn't have been scum reading vonflare. What was your read on him at the time, if you had one?

@Teedy: Thor is arguing that hua is guilty of attacking Thor with an argument she knew to be false (correct me if I'm wrong, Thor). I'm assuming you disagree?

[awesomeusername]

@hua: I think scum would definitely admit that you're scumhunting if they knew it'd give them town points. That's not even an issue anyways.

@Ulysses: Karlos is close. I mean it's scummy to start a wagon on someone unless you think they're scum. Say I were to start a bandwagon on you. 5 says that would be scummy of me if I didn't think you were scum.

@Thor: Back to the numbered argument.
1) Not disputed.
2/3/4) I can see how she might think you intended to undermine vonflare’s intelligence as the question did end up making him look and feel kinda silly. And though I have some problems with 4 in particular, it doesn't seem far-fetched to deduce that when a player is undermined, the intent is for others to vote that person. Hence building a wagon.
5) I thought I agreed with this at first glance. You’re supposed to wagon those who you think are scum, right? But indeed, wagoning someone to get a read on them (for pressure) makes sense, especially early day 1.
6) Follows logically from the others.

I never said I thought her beliefs were OK, just that she wasn't lying. Also, I read up on your meta a bit (well OK, one scum game and one town game) and this looks more like town Thor.

That's sort of, in a nutshell, why I think Hua is lying and being scummy - she's flat out ignoring things and making up other things. If she's town I think we're better off without her, and if she's scum she needs rope.

That makes sense from your standpoint, too. I did note that she wasn't reading carefully at the beginning and did ignore some stuff, but I think the "making up things" are differences of opinion.

@vonflare: Thank you for reminding me.

VOTE: Karlos4

The bad logic doesn't bother me so much as the fact that he's claiming that he's not sheeping Thor anymore when in fact he is. His actions don't match his words, which is especially bad because his words in this case are his primary defense (see post 221).
I've been conflicted on him since I've been sensing genuine intent from his posts; I think I've identified that as genuine intent to not appear scummy. While for a newbie this isn't actually that much of a scumtell, the "genuine" vibe was my primary town tell on him before.

L-1 again.

[awesomeusername]

Sure, go ahead. I was just making sure Karlos and Ulysses were actually following what was going on since their reasons for voting hua sounded to me like "what Thor said."

[awesomeusername]

I thought I addressed that in 259? Middle paragraph.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: I don't actually think you ever said you had a town read on Karlos. You expressed a null read, unless I'm reading 168 wrong. What do you think of the accusations against Karlos? (Also, what were you trying to say in 284?)

@vonflare, 288 (and Karlos 293): If hua is scum and Karlos is town, I would expect hua to wait until someone stated intent to hammer to save herself by voting Karlos. Plus she'd probably only be saving herself one day. Interesting reasoning, though.

@Karlos: You were voted in 80, 110, 219, and 279, so those are good places to start.

See also 252 and read vonflare's ISO (I'm too lazy to sort through, but he's got a lot).

… I just realized how little and/or outdated TeedyKay's and Surye's attacks on Karlos are. I don't like this. Would anyone be up for wagoning one of these two? I honestly think they'd be better lynches than Karlos at this point.

[awesomeusername]

@Surye: Fair enough. Still weak, though.

@Karlos: vonflare has plenty of other accusations elsewhere.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor, 311: So you're saying that hua's argument involves her ignoring the post she's attacking? I still think the interpretation of vonflare's post isn't central to her argument, but if you're right, that's rather telling. Let me go reread stuff. I'll get back to you later tonight.

Why did you not realize this when you voted him, and if you believe it why are you not moving off him now and trying to lead a wagon yourself?

When I vote a player, I look much more deeply at the actions of the player himself than at the votes of others who are voting him. My reads at the time of my last post were oscillating like crazy so I figured I should sort through them before voting. But yeah, I need to put my vote where my mouth is.

UNVOTE: Karlos4
VOTE: Surye

Besides "scumtells don't expire," you haven't elaborated on your vote at all. Your vote seems to be based entirely on Karlos' bad logic, and I don't like bad logic as a scumtell in newbie games. Show me scum motivation.

@Teedy, 313: Do you have a problem with non-random RVS votes? I've always understood RVS votes to be at least somewhat calculated.

[awesomeusername]

I still think the interpretation of vonflare's post isn't central to her argument, but if you're right, that's rather telling. Let me go reread stuff. I'll get back to you later tonight.

If it's not central to her case on me (which was - pushing VonFlare who I should have "known" was town) then I have no idea what is.

The point of huateasa bringing up an interpretation of vonflare in the first part of post 57 was to say that you shouldn't have been scum-reading vonflare. You've already said you weren't scum-reading vonflare, so that part of the argument isn't disputed. Hence I think it's not central.

@Thor, 311: So you're saying that hua's argument involves her ignoring the post she's attacking?

Ignoring the response of the victim of the primary issues of her case to the post she's attacking which is about said victim - yes.

I see what you're talking about, though. Reading selectively… I can't argue with that. That's the evidence of scum motivation I've been looking for.

UNVOTE: Surye
VOTE: huateasa

Surye and Karlos, you are by no means off the hook. Matter of fact, I'd probably still be voting Surye if I thought it would do anything.

@hua: Anything to say about the accusation of selective reading?

[awesomeusername]

My next question to everyone is: What is your opinion on post 265? Only SD has really mentioned it and it seems logical and good to follow.

265 being the post in which hua attacks Salmon? There was a minor detail or two I disagreed with (Salmon stated he wagoned because of 108, not 106), and the "being overly aware of his ISO" doesn't seem like a valid attack to me at all, but the bandwagoning attack was decent. I hadn't realized that Salmon had been given a choice to vote hua or explain why not, and it does seem slightly scummy to take the easy way out. I'm not town reading Salmon right now, but I wasn't exactly doing so before 265 either, so...

@Thor: I don't think Ulysses is making that accusation. What seems to be happening is that Karlos made a statement, then later renounced it and said he had been playing newbishly (as in, admitting his play before was poor, not admitting he was intentionally playing poorly) when making that statement. I think Ulysses and vonflare are accusing him of still making that statement sometimes, though Karlos has claimed he's fixed his play with regards to that. (Correct me if I'm wrong, guys.)

@Karlos: To be clear, you're saying you now think lynching people just to narrow down our suspects is bad, right?

[awesomeusername]

@hua: Here's why I voted for you:

Your initial attack was against post 42, right? Well, in your attack (57), you had an interpretation of vonflare's original post (the one in which he voted you), but the interpretation you offered was denied by vonflare himself in response to the very question you're attacking. So in order for you to make your attack on that question, you had to ignore vonflare's response to the question, which is basically ignoring what the question did (at least part of it). The crime there is selective reading.

Also, can you point out where Thor called you town, please? Are you talking about 368? I think he makes it clear there he still thinks you're scum. If you're not double-checking your push every once in a while, that would be bad play.

@Karlos' VT claim: I forgot to weigh in last post, but I don't really think it matters. Town or not, I'm not even sure he realized he had set up the PR claim.

We need to decide who to lynch pretty quick. I'm fine with Surye, hua, or Karlos in that order, so I'll hammer Karlos if we get close to deadline (say within 12 hours), but I still think we have better options.

Also, starting now, I'm going to have very limited access to the internet until the 20th, which is after deadline. I should be able to switch votes if necessary, but I won't be writing long posts or doing much analysis. I guess I'll put up the V/LA banner thing, but I can still post. Sorry guys.

[awesomeusername]

@hua:

1) I don't think either of my posts you quoted were saying you weren't scumhunting. There was an earlier one in which I did, but I was mistaken and said so.

2) Can you please respond to my selective reading case?

3) When you expressed "strong dislike" for me earlier for voting you, are you saying you think I'm being scummy or are you expressing frustration?

[awesomeusername]

I can lynch Karlos in 10.5 hours.

Tomorrow I'd really like to check out Surye and Salmon. Teedy and Ulysses are marginally more town like, but I'd like more information on them as well. I'm not fully convinced that either Karlos or hua is scum, but whichever one survives today will be a top priority tomorrow. I'm currently townreading Thor, but be wary since he's in excellent position right now if he's scum since he's so influential. I don't have much of a read on vonflare at the moment but I think he's less likely to be scum than others.

@Thor: Wait. How is vonflare's response incompatible with hua's interpretation? I saw it earlier but now I don't.

[awesomeusername]

Warning: Surye is at L-1.

I'm back.

I think hua's hammer can be read as either town or scum, though there are a couple of things which point a little more towards scum.
1) I'd already declared I could hammer Karlos, so she can't use the "we needed a lynch" excuse. Clearly she was escaping being hammered herself; I don't think she'll deny that. It's much worse for scum to have a scum hammered day 1 than for town to have a townie hammered day 1, so this is a slight scumtell.
2) If hua had died and flipped town, that would have thrown a good deal of suspicion on Thor, which would be very good for her if she's town and Thor's her top scumread. She may have thought Thor could get away with it, though, and he might have.

Still, I can imagine town-huateasa pulling that move, as regardless of her alignment she did seem increasingly frustrated and desperate. I don't think hua ever stated a read on Karlos. So overall, I'll take it as a very slight scumtell.

I realize it's kind of off-topic now but I still want this question answered:

@Thor: Wait. How is vonflare's response incompatible with hua's interpretation? I saw it earlier but now I don't.

Those wagons were both fairly bad, though yes, the Karlos one was worse. I didn't like the votes of Surye, Ulysses, or Salmon.
VOTE: Ulysses96, the next scummiest guy on Karlos.

@vonflare, I'll respond in a few hours. I have class.

@hua, what do you think of the wagon on Surye?

@Thor, do you still think hua is scum?

[awesomeusername]

@Ulysses (and vonflare): There's not really one post in particular of yours that strikes me as super scummy, but you've been on like 3 major wagons. Every time, the wagon is already well under way (2nd vote on vonflare, 3rd vote on hua, 4th vote on Karlos) and most of your questioning is directed at whoever the most vulnerable player is at the time. You seem generally opportunistic and you seem to like bandwagons.

It's not unreasonable behavior for newbie town, I guess, but I think it's kind of scummy. I do think Surye is scummier right now, but it's pretty obvious why I'm not voting him.

@vonflare: The first thing that came to my mind when I saw Teedy was killed was that scum probably wants us to lynch hua today, clearing her somewhat. The second thing was "Wait no, that's WIFOM." Teedy's reads are probably worth looking at, though, because he's confirmed town.

@Thor: I was rereading and fact-checking in response to hua. I'm reading vonflare's response in 43 to your question as a yes, so he did think hua complimented and voted someone in the same post. I noticed that hua's interpretation of vonflare's post in 57 (her response to the first two quotes) doesn't directly contradict this.

@Surye: Here are your stated reasons for voting Karlos:

Karlos4 - leaning scum -

My vote on Vonflare is pretty strong, and I dont understand what you mean with what is something you disagree with Thor about? And I was sheeping Thor so much, because so many players started voting on him and I wanted them to stop, for he is a very good player, that keeps the game interesting and IF he is town will help us tremendously find the Mafia.

I really don't like his post.His vonflare vote was anything but strong. And sheeping to to stop people from voting someone who is a good player because if he is town it's good? What? If he's scum the opposite happens.

The vonflare vote being weak is a decent point, and a new one, I think. But I feel like you were voting Karlos mostly for having bad logic (mentioned this before in 331). I don't consider bad logic a scum tell unless the player knows the logic they're using is bad, and I don't think Karlos did. How's that for something to discuss?

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: I thought the accusation was that hua supported an interpretation of vonflare's reasoning which was contradicted by his answer to your question, and I don't see a contradiction anymore. The argument you're giving above seems different than the one I was referring to (see 311). There's been a misunderstanding somewhere...

Are you talking about the difference in tone between 57 and 102? Because a lot happened in between those posts besides your suggestion, enough to cause the change of tone, I think, and she did use new posts in the second argument. I'm not sure I understand the "manipulation of reality" part.

@Salmon and @vonflare: Would you mind elaborating a bit on your Surye votes? Since a major reason we're wagoning Surye right now is that the Karlos wagon was scummy, and the Karlos wagon was scummy partially because people weren't discussing, you're being a bit hypocritical. Both of your reasons are "I kinda thought he was scum yesterday" and neither of you said that much about him yesterday.

[awesomeusername]

Bummer, I was looking forward to Salmon's and hua's input.

@vonflare:

1) Thor's primary reason for voting Surye is in 427, not 435. Notice that by 435 he was already voting Surye.
2) hua is more likely to be town than Surye =/= hua is town. (That's a "not equals" sign.)

Also, why would town-Surye not question Thor's shift of focus?

@Thor: Any particular reason you're so sure of Surye over Ulysses or vonflare? You seem to not want to look around more. Also, @465, it's kind of all 3 reasons. The fact that I can't understand your argument makes me wonder how good of an argument it really is. But yes, let's focus on the topic at hand.

Hmm, I was going vote Surye now since vonflare unvoted him, but I kinda like my case on Ulysses and want him to respond.

[awesomeusername]

I'm still waiting for Ulysses to respond (and Salmon), but maybe this will get things going:

UNVOTE: Ulysses96
VOTE: Surye

@Thor: I have reads, but I would prefer to continue to look around since we have the opportunity. The lynch and nightkill information is a part of that.

[awesomeusername]

Yeah, I can see how it looked like I didn't have reads on people. I tend to second-guess myself so all my reads are weaker than they probably should be. I also like to be sure of things in general before acting, but that's never really possible in mafia, is it?

Also, your praising of people who agree with you kind of feels like buddying.

Sigh, we were doing so well with activity Day 1…

[awesomeusername]

Okay, you're not buddying (I misused the term, looking it up), but it still gives me weird vibes. I can see town Thor wanting people to follow him though.

@Thor: His ISO starting at 416 does have some substance (which is more than I can say for some lurkers here), but he seems rather unwilling to post a defense. Wait, actually, the only defense he's posted is "Thor is tunneling." I see what you're getting at. Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's scum now.

@Surye: Thor did state a case on you in his opening attack. Also you have yet to respond to 454.

[awesomeusername]

Stuff about hua's hammer and you changing targets, mostly.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: Yes, it looks like deflecting attention to me, but you are kinda tunneling. I was actually wondering about the change in target myself, and was going to post something about it but Surye beat me to it. And the push on hua is a little less weird when you realize he was scum-reading hua yesterday. I was surprised to find that, though, since he never voted her or showed interest in lynching her.

Also, Surye brings up an interesting point in his most recent post. Your two scum reads are Surye and hua, but by your logic, that's not even a possible scum team. Are you still scum-reading hua?

And you're claiming town-cred for opposing the Karlos lynch, right?

@Surye: He stated why he singled you out in 474. Do you agree with his case on the lynching of Karlos? If not, why not? And RE 454: Ah, I see. I'll give you that there wasn't much better to go on.

[awesomeusername]

You say tunneling like you think it means 'focused'.
Tunneling doesn't mean 'focused'
Tunneling means 'focused to blindness of all other considerations'
What issues do you think I'm avoiding discussing/considering? Because if you can't name any then all you've discovered is that I'm interested in Surye, and want him to be the focus of the game at the moment. Which isn't an intrinsically bad thing to have happen unless you see a 'Surye is town' conversation we should be having.

Fine, I'm probably misusing more terminology. What I'm trying to say is that you don't seem to be considering the possibility that Surye could be town. Specifically 497, minus the last paragraph. Your interpretations of his posts already assume he's scum. The last paragraph is valid, though.

...I feel like you just killed your own point here.

Yeah, that was intentional. I was showing my train of thought. The sudden willingness to directly attack hua has been added to my list of accusations.

Absolutely. Why, do you think I don't deserve it?

I realized that since scum knew Karlos was town, it would be a really easy way for scum to get town-cred. Plus if you were scum, having Karlos alive to sheep you could be pretty useful. I'm just saying there's plenty of motivation for scum-Thor to oppose a Karlos lynch, so that move doesn't clear you as much as you claim.

[awesomeusername]

… I was going to say I was willing to sheep Thor and Bert for the most part since Thor led the lynch on Surye and Bert hammered without too much hesitation, but that's not happening...

@Thor: Are you really that confident in your town reads?

My thoughts looking back during the night were that it's most likely either Salmon or vonflare. As I said above, Thor led the lynch on Surye and Bert hammered almost eagerly, so they're less likely to be scum. Surye's play cleared hua/Mindgamer somewhat to me, since part of the accusations at Surye were that his plan was to get that slot lynched. Between vonflare and Salmon, I've been reading vonflare as a bit more townish than Salmon, but based on interactions with Surye, vonflare seems more likely. This is all riddled with WIFOM though, bleh.

What do you guys think of a mass claim today? If a VT had been nightkilled, it would've been smart I think, but I'm not so sure now.

[awesomeusername]

Confident enough to lynch a scum read? Yes, sure. Why shouldn't I be? What's my alternative plan?

Look for scum tells, maybe? Process of elimination is pretty weak in my opinion unless you have players who are completely confirmed.

Town's actually in a pretty good situation right now, so I'm not sure what advantage massclaim would do for us. Can you explain what you expect to gain?

It was on my mind overnight and I wanted input. It would be nice if one of my primary suspects were confirmed town (via mass claim), but that's a pretty big gamble with six players.

My question is I'm wondering if you can walk me through why you picked Ulysses throughout the first part of Day 2.

Surye was at L-1. I didn't want to hammer him because the day had just begun and a hammer that quick would've deprived town of information (for example, hua hadn't even posted yet). The others on the Karlos wagon were Teedy (dead), Ulysses, and vonflare, and Ulysses had been more lurky than vonflare and was also on like every wagon (vonflare early D1, hua mid D1, Karlos end D1). I felt like he was always focusing on whoever everyone else was already focusing on.

Why did you think putting the L-1 vote that vonflare removed (on Surye) would get things going, exactly?

I'm not entirely sure. Changing votes seems like a pretty good way to spark discussion, and I thought Surye should stay at L-1.

@vonflare: Who are your main suspects right now?

I have some halfway-done analysis I'll finish and post after class.

[awesomeusername]

Okay, so I went back and ISO'ed all the living players plus Surye.

Interactions with Surye

Salmon - Specifically expressed a gut scum read on Surye Day 1, and stated he would like a Surye wagon, but never voted him. Got a null in Surye's read list (219) when most people were town reading Salmon, so that seems to make the scum team unlikely. Salmon immediately got on the Surye wagon Day 2. Overall, I don't think it's a very likely scum team, more because of Surye's read on Salmon than Salmon's read on Surye. This association read is weaker than all the others though.

vonflare - Scum read Surye on Day 1, but focused on Karlos. On Day 2, he initially voted Surye, putting him at L-1, but turned on Thor and got off the wagon. Surye gives vonflare a null read in 219. I think this scum team is quite possible; they were on the same wagon Day 1.

Mindgamer/hua - The slot has expressed literally no thoughts on Surye. Surye puts hua as leaning scum in his reads post, and seems to think hua is pretty scummy in a couple of other places, too, but never acts until day 2. In Day 2, pretty much all Surye did was push hua. The accusation was made that scum intended for hua to be lynched Day 2, but Surye could've rolled with that to clear his partner. Overall though, the scum team seems unlikely to me, though certainly possible.

Ulysses/Bert - Ulysses also said literally nothing about Surye, even on Day 2. Surye scum-read Ulysses in 219, but never mentioned this read again. What's interesting is Bert's hammer. We've agreed it's not a town tell, as it was pretty obvious Surye was dead at that point. Bert's lack of caution actually strikes me as a little anti-town. This seems like a fairly likely scum team.

Thor - Though he actually gave Surye a slight town read early on, and never really talked about him Day 1, he abruptly led the Day 2 lynch. Surye called Thor town in his read list. Thor does bus pretty hard when he's scum. But since it wouldn't have been very weird at all for Thor to not push Surye, I think this scum team is unlikely.

Independent reads

Salmon - I don't like Salmon's play and I don't know why you all are town reading him. Reading his ISO, he's contributed so little to scum hunting and such. I realize he "lacks motivation" and stuff but that's pretty easy to say. Without the Surye flip I actually think Salmon's the scummiest.

vonflare - Some of his posts from really early on (43, 78, 86) seem very town-like to me. I don't like his play a whole lot, especially some of those ridiculous arguments against Karlos, but overall he seems quite town-motivated.

Mindgamer/hua - My head is still spinning from the Thor v. hua debate. Looking back, my gut reaction is that the arguments were so subtle and nitpicky in places that neither side was probably that strong. The Karlos hammer was weird; it tells me hua really didn't want to die. She was pretty frustrated throughout the debate, which seems a little more town than scum to me. Call it a small town read, but more because of the interactions with Surye than anything else. I want to hear from Mindgamer soon.

Ulysses/Bert - Reading Ulysses' ISO, he wasn't as bad as I remembered. Still though, I didn't like his voting patterns, and he was pretty lurky. Besides the eager hammer, Bert seems more town to me. I find going on gut reads annoying but it's not a tell. Given that Bert has kind of made himself the center of attention, I find the slot overall leaning town.

Thor - Thor is the leader of the game, and as such he would be in excellent position as scum. In fact, I'd advocate any investigative role investigating Thor tonight (if tonight happens) since he'd be extremely useful as confirmed town. He's done a lot of pro-town things, instigating discussion, leading the lynch on Surye, and scumhunting. I don't like how yesterday he seemed to be trying to ride town cred, especially since I thought he was giving himself more than he deserved. Nonetheless, his play seems town.

---------

My problem right now is that the players I think would work best as Surye's partner are players I think are pretty pro-town otherwise. I think for now I'll VOTE: SalmonellaDreams, but I'd also be willing to lynch vonflare or Bert.

@Bert: Can you post your reasoning behind your reads please? This quibbling with Thor is going nowhere.

@Thor: Let me put it this way. If you didn't have any other reads, would you be scum-reading Bert?

I do kind of see your point, but I'd still like a reason beyond process of elimination.

[awesomeusername]

@Thor: Okay, I'll sheep you on the Salmon unvote. I don't understand why everyone thinks Salmon is so town though, so could someone explain that?

As for the PoE thing, not having reads in a vacuum is fair enough I suppose. This discussion is getting us off track, anyway. Point is, there are stronger scum tells than PoE.

UNVOTE: SalmonellaDreams
VOTE: vonflare

I can't decide between vonflare or Bert, but since voting Bert would put him at L-1 and I don't want anyone hammering before notscience can truly weigh in, I'll go for vonflare.

@vonflare: Are you accusing Bert of not posting content? If so, I think you need to reread. Fluff is okay in my opinion as long as it's not everything he's posting.

@Salmon: I'd really appreciate some opinions from you (particularly about Bert and vonflare). Right now you look like you're just waiting out the confusion so you can wagon whoever we decide on, pretty confident it's not going to be you.

@notscience: Not that I can think of. Have you played with anyone here before?

[awesomeusername]

Actually, wait. The only person in a position to hammer Bert before notscience posts if I vote Bert is Salmon. I'm not convinced he's town, but he's a calm enough player that a quick hammer would really surprise me.

I still prefer my vonflare vote though, since I don't like his reasons for voting Bert.

@Thor: Actually, I think the main reason I didn't list Mindgamer as a possible lynch was that I wasn't comfortable with lynching an absentee. Looking back, I'm not sure why that was, since a null read for me at this point is a small scum read. I also don't think a Surye/notscience scum team makes a whole lot of sense, though bussing is possible. The thing is, Surye started pressuring hua

before

it was suggested that the scum plan was to lynch hua and

before

it was blatantly obvious Surye was going to be lynched.

Actually, a vonflare/Surye scum team doesn't make sense either, in light of his early Day 2 posts. They don't feel bussy, and he kinda set himself up to vote Surye on Day 1 (see 176).

UNVOTE: vonflare
VOTE: Bert

Bleh, too much second-guessing myself. Let me sort through this again…

Bert is at L-1, so careful.

[awesomeusername]

My first reaction was actually that I was very sure that notscience is town based on Thor's flip on hua around Day 1. Thor vouched for Salmon (he's my best guess for Thor's N2 inspection at the moment), so I'm fairly confident vonflare is the remaining scum.

That said,

please

don't put vonflare at L-1 yet since a quicklynch from scum would be a win, and I'm not quite that confident yet.

I'm very much looking forward to hearing reads from notscience. Meanwhile, I'm going to reread some to try to 1) figure out who Thor inspected because it's obviously one of us and 2) get a better read on Salmon and vonflare.

Not sure if vonflare is scum playing dumb at the moment or honestly doesn't realize his bad logic.

NO DONT CLAIM

[awesomeusername]

My bad, I thought you were vonflare telling everyone to claim, notscience. I vote for neither no lynch nor mass claim. I'll explain why shortly.

I REPEAT, DO NOT CLAIM!!!!!

[awesomeusername]

Gaaaaah!

We can't confirm anyone by fakeclaiming. NO MORE CLAIMS, PLEASE!

[awesomeusername]

Okay, too late for that.

The remaining scum is either a role blocker or a goon, and only he knows which. If he's a goon, he knows there's no doctor, and thus can fake claim doctor without fear of being counterclaimed. Thus a doctor claim doesn't clear anyone (and tells scum who the doc is), a VT claim obviously doesn't clear anyone, and anyone who claims any other role is obviously lying. Also, I don't see how a doctor claiming who he protected clears anyone either.

[awesomeusername]

DOCTOR, DO NOT CLAIM.

Trust me on this one.

[awesomeusername]

@vonflare: 2 doc claims basically requires the scum to be stupid. He knows whether there's a doctor or not.

Bleh, sorry for spamming-ish. Read 625 and if you don't understand, just trust me. Salmon will probably back me up on this.

[awesomeusername]

Wait, I see what you're saying. The night 2 no-kill! OK, disregard me. Granted, that could have been a no submission, so it's not confirmed that there's a doc, but that protection could definitely be useful information.

My bad, vonflare.

[awesomeusername]

So are we claiming? I can go next, though I do have a feeling Thor was the person protected night 2. In that case, scum learns who the doc is but we get valuable information. I'm a little concerned that my (ex-) top scum read suggested the plan though, since the remaining scum knows exactly whether the plan will work or not.

notscience, what do you think? Regardless, I should probably claim next if we claim for opposing the plan so vehemently.

[awesomeusername]

If we lynch today, with 3 people going into night, scum can win by roleblocking one player and shooting the other (assuming doc can't self-protect). If we no-lynch today, we're saying we kinda want scum to kill someone. So it doesn't really benefit scum to know who the doctor is. The worst case scenario is that we get misleading information. I'll trust you on the plan.

I'm a VT.

Your casework isn't quite right, though. If nobody claims doctor, a failure to nightkill on Night 2 becomes rather likely. It's not necessarily that town is dumb.

@vonflare: My point is that scum knows whether he submitted or not on Night 2. This, combined with knowing how many doctors there really are can cause him to know which of the four choices (0 claims, 1 good claim, 1 bad claim, or 2 claims) will occur. A Night 2 no-nightkill is actually pretty likely if notscience is scum since that was when Mindgamer was playing for the slot.

[awesomeusername]

@vonflare: I'm not actually 100% confirmed, since I could be scum who didn't submit and also happened to be protected by the doctor.

We still need a claim from Salmon, incidentally. vonflare is looking pretty insanely town.

For the most part vonflare's analysis looks accurate, though there are a few logical jumps. Yes, the no submission the night Mindgamer was gone is fairly condemning, but Salmon's not actually cleared by that. I think one reason we're sorta clearing him is that we think Thor inspected him night 2. While I think Salmon is the most likely possibility for the inspection, I'm not sure he's the only one.

I'm like 80+ % sure notscience is scum though. I'll vote with you in a bit, vonflare; sorry for the over-paranoia. My gut doesn't like Salmon's slot.

[awesomeusername]

Posting to confirm once more that I am town.

(As I pointed out before, I could be no-killing scum, but now you

know

I'm not since I'm not hammering.)

Sorry, I've been pretty busy, but I promise I'll reread and make a decision within the next 12 hours.

But yeah, it's obvious Thor crumbed that he investigated me.

Are you guys referring to post 529? I feel like I'm missing something since it doesn't seem so obvious to me. Otherwise, though, my thoughts are pretty much exactly the same as Salmon's in 661.

[awesomeusername]

Welp, here goes nothing.

VOTE: notscience

[awesomeusername]

Yay! Good game, everyone!

Special kudos to vonflare for being clutch on Day 4 and Thor for making his inspections clear retroactively.

@notscience: Yeah, you played fairly well but you really got ruined by Mindgamer being absent Night 2.

[awesomeusername]

Thanks for the feedback, Thor! You've convinced me process of elimination is useful (though of course it is when you're cop), and I actually like the idea of looking for town and catching scum that way. I'd never thought about it like that before.

I had a hunch that Thor and hua were both either PRs or scum by the middle of Day 2, since Thor backed off of hua so suddenly and hua was desperate not to be killed. So I actually would've been more inclined to lynch notscience had he claimed VT.

I would also like to point out that my slot was never even voted for the entire game.

[awesomeusername]

Game's over, doesn't count.