Newbie 1509: The Devil's Run (Game Over)

[Clusk92]

Hey everyone, this is also my first mafia game (online anyway), so lets hope its a fun one.

VOTE: BabiSoup

[Clusk92]

Hey, I'm here, no reason to assume I'm guilty yet. I personally dislike immediate accusations, because a random lynch on day one helps the villains more than the heroes. That being said, not many people have spoken yet, where is everyone else?

This is a very defensive post. Why do you feel the need to state you aren't guilty when no-ones accusing you of anything?

[Clusk92]

Is Luceatluxvestra, or as I will now forever call them Luc, the only one we are waiting to hear from? Do you guys think this slot is more likely town or scum based off the fact that we are waiting to hear from him/her?

I think lurking without posting is obviously does more harm to town then it does good, so can be a sign of scuminess, but in this case I think the slot is currently null due to inactivity because she hasn't logged in since the 20th May which is when she signed up for this game.

Hey, I'm here, no reason to assume I'm guilty yet. I personally dislike immediate accusations, because a random lynch on day one helps the villains more than the heroes. That being said, not many people have spoken yet, where is everyone else?

Shaddowez, why does a random lynch on day 1 help scum more than town?

Town (usually) outnumbers scum, so based on pure probability it is more likely that a townsperson will be lynched than scum via random lynching. That opens up the night to a free kill (assuming no roleblockers/doctor/etc), dropping the town by two in one day. It's not a guarantee, but mathematically it favors scum

I don't think it will necessarily be a random lynch though, even in day 1. 13 days is a hell of a long time to find the information we need to catch scum or at least make a justifiable lynch.

Also, I believe that lynching in the first day is beneficial to town in the long-run, due to the fact this is the one time we are in control and have the power to lynch someone who could possibly be scum, if we were to waste that we would be giving a risk-free kill to the scum overnight.



As for the questions:

1) First time playing at mafiascum and also first time online ever. Played a couple of times in real life though.

2) The most appealing thing about the games to me is the analysis. I have quite an analytical mind and enjoy puzzle solving so this type of game fits the bill for me.

3) I'm normally quite quizzical and like to probe people for their motivations behind their votes/why they say stuff.

[Clusk92]

@Alina

I think I am observant, cheeky, and pussy.

Vote: Jopalopa

I think he is town and I want to hear more of his fish jokes.

Wait, wait, you're voting for someone

because

you think they're town? Yeah I'm pretty sure that is massively scummy.

This combined with the general lack of content in your posts does not make you look good, scum.

[Clusk92]

Is Luceatluxvestra, or as I will now forever call them Luc, the only one we are waiting to hear from? Do you guys think this slot is more likely town or scum based off the fact that we are waiting to hear from him/her?

I think lurking without posting is obviously does more harm to town then it does good, so can be a sign of scuminess, but in this case I think the slot is currently null due to inactivity because she hasn't logged in since the 20th May which is when she signed up for this game.

Can you see a situation where lurking could be beneficial to town?

There could be some specific situations where it

could

be beneficial I guess, such as a PR wanting to stay under the scum's radar so they are not killed overnight.

However in most cases everyone needs to contribute to allow town to gather the most amount of information possible to help lynch scum and reduce the chances of a mislynch, which is why I'd like to see Andrew and Jopa start contributing more.

What are your thoughts on policy lynching lurkers?

[Clusk92]

@Alina

I think I am observant, cheeky, and pussy.

Vote: Jopalopa

I think he is town and I want to hear more of his fish jokes.

Wait, wait, you're voting for someone

because

you think they're town? Yeah I'm pretty sure that is massively scummy.

This combined with the general lack of content in your posts does not make you look good, scum.

Sarcasm? Is that a scumtell? And I guess you have a posted a lot of content; basic game theory and massive attempts at scumhunting.

It is very hard to detect the sarcasm in this post, perhaps you would like to more clear in the future so its easier for people to understand what you mean.
At least you have explained your reasons for the vote in a later post, but I still disagree with the fact you think he's scum based on one post, it's weak reasoning IMO.

[Clusk92]

Here's a rundown on my reads so far:

Alina

- My biggest townread atm due to her activity, seems like she's geniunely trying to catch scum and is very open and honest.

Huntress

- Null atm, hasn't contributed too much but her posts don't seem suspicious so far.

BabiSoup

- Definitely seems like scum to me atm, lack of reasoning behind his votes (I believe policy lynching to be bad too) and also unclear sarcasm in posts which makes it confusing for town when reading his posts.

FormerFish

- Leaning towards town, even though the post interrupting Alina's questioning may seem mildly suspicious, he's been active in fishing (pardon the pun) for information by asking plenty of questions himself so I believe has town's best interest at heart.

Shaddowez

- Scumread - no scumhunting to be seen so far and is too busy with being very defensive in most of his posts.

Blueheaven

- Townread - has come in and posted good detailed content and seems to geniunely want to scumhunt.

Neil

- Null/town atm, not got too much to go off, but his first post in the thread is very open and honest about his style, particularly playing as scum, would scum give away their play style in their very first post? Would seem very suicidal to me.

[Clusk92]

Oh forgot

Andrewseagull

- Null atm due to only just joining and not posting much

[Clusk92]

I had Alina as a pretty strong townread, but her latest actions have me skeptical. It serves the town to not quickhammer somebody, so that they can claim, or at the very least give us some more time to gather information about the lynchee and anyone else that posts. There are only two scenarios that I can think of where somebody would quickhammer, and neither are likely right now:

• There is a town cop who has not yet voted, knows the lynchee to be guilty, and wants to make sure the lynch happens before someone backs out.
  
• The person who quickhammers is scum and knows the lynchee is town, and wants to make sure the lynch happens before there's a chance to prove themselves or someone backs out

The first is unlikely on Day 1, especially since there was not a night phase that I'm aware of. The second would be dumb, because they'd almost be auto-lynch the next day if they quickhammer someone that flips town, unless that have a darn good reason for what they did.

If Alina is scum, there are two reasons she could have backed out. Granted, neither are strong arguments, but they exist.

The first is that Alina and Neil are scum buddies, and she didn't expect the wagon to grow so quickly. With her dropping out, it would take two out of the remaining four people to vote Neil to make a lynch, and two of them already have votes on other people. While still possible in the length of time we have, it also gives more time for people currently voting for Neil to switch their vote.

The second option is that Neil is actually town, and Alina is scum. Dropping out would allow Alina to hammer after we get one more vote (which is unlikely as per my earlier explanation), or to feign innocence with the "I ended up not voting for him" excuse.

As I said, neither argument is incredibly strong right now, but I will be re-examining Alina's posts and keeping an eye going forward. I will be even more suspicious if Neil does end up lynched and flips town, regardless of whether or not Alina is one of the votes.

Most of these possibilities put forward don't mention the most obvious one - and the actual reason given by Alina - to avoid an accidental hammering.

This fear is justified in a newbie game IMO as anyone could come in and not realise Neil is on L-1 and vote him, which could be disastrous because a) it may mean the lynching of a PR due to the fact they didn't have a chance to claim and b) means we lynched 8 days before the deadline, meaning we missed out on lots of time to gather more information on Neil or other members to make sure we don't make a mislynch.

You do seem very upset that Neil was taken off L-1, why is this? Is it because you're scum trying to get a mislynch?

When you consider the above combined with this post:

@Babi

- When asked about not voting for Neil, you said even though you had previously said you found Neil scummy..

I find that voting scum who is not posting is better than voting scum who is posting

Jopa was who you voted for, who has been replaced by blueheaven and has been active. Neil has been quiet, and even though you have posted since blueheaven, you haven't changed your vote. Why is that?

Where you seem intent on pressuring and manipulating Babisoup into changing his vote to Neil, and trying to move the wagon along as fast as possible, it shows you in a very scummy way.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shaddowez

[Clusk92]

Amusing that your answer to the RQS says you like to probe people for their motivations, yet that's what you're using as an attack against me. You also got an early scumread on me for being too defensive, and now that I'm being proactive you're saying I'm scummy. Trying to build baseless case against me?

Just because I like to probe people doesn't mean I can't question things when other people do it, especially when it comes across to me like you were trying to influence someone to change vote.

I am of course happy you're being more proactive now as it benefits town, but its just the tone of the questioning that made it seem scummy to me.

Right sorry I haven't been around recently guys, have just caught up!

Still think formerfish, so I might as well make my first ever post and see what he says.

I understand the suspicion with Neil but not sure if he's mafia to be honest.

VOTE: Formerfish

Still waiting for your explanation on your Formerfish vote here - I would also like to know what you find suspicious about Neil and also why also still don't think he's scum also.

[Clusk92]

BabiSoup, Andrewseagull, blueheaven

- Could you each please provide some more details on why you're not voting, or why you voted for who you did?

What can you infer from Neil's (IC)play here http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16397?

Why did this game convince you to vote for him? Was it the similarity in play-styles in this game and that game and the fact he was scum in that game?

[Clusk92]

Similar play style in tunnelling but more so in bad play. He wasn't a good IC in that game, maybe because it's difficult to be a scum IC. In this game, as an IC, he hasn't taught us anything, he neglected to mention L-2 in his vote when it should have been a good chance for him to talk about the dangers of L-2 and why it is important to do so, he also has resorted to lurking which is just bad as said in the guide to being a good ic.

I don't necessarily think it would be difficult to be scum as an IC, because their main role is to inform us of basic game theory in general and also answer any questions relating to theory and abbreviations etc. and answering these honestly won't make you look like scum.

I do agree that he has been a bad IC in both games, but I don't know how much meta you should take into account when voting for people, and after all, he could just be a bad IC in general.

[Clusk92]

WTF.

Andrew, if Neil flips town, you've got some serious explaining to do on day 2.

[Clusk92]

I do not like the massive U-turn that occurs in a single post of going from not thinking Neil is mafia to voting for him, at all.

[Clusk92]

I'm not buying the fact Andrew didn't know how things worked on here - the rules are on the very first page for everyone to see, if you're a newbie it's just common sense to read them before the game starts.

As I said before that wasn't the only thing that made him look scummy though, he changed his mind about Neil so quickly after not being suspicious about him before, based on just two lines he deemed suspicious, right when he's at L-1.

His premature VT claim when there was no need does not help town at all and also looks like scum panicking to me.

For now I'm comfortable with putting a vote down for him.

VOTE: Andrewseagull

[Clusk92]

VOTE: Shaddowez

Reasons?

[Clusk92]

I'm hardclaiming

Town Jailkeeper

. I jailed blueheaven last night. So, there are four plausible scenarios.
1. Scum did a No-Kill.
2. Scum targeted the One-Shot Bulletproof.(1/10)
3. Scum targeted the same person as me.(1/35)
4. I targeted scum.

4. is the most likely scenario, meaning blueheaven is most likely to be scum and will be the lynch for today.

Assuming blueheaven is scum, I believe shaddowez to be his scumpartner.

VOTE: blueheaven

Bit of a premature claim, good chance you won't last the night now unless you target the right person, was the claim purely to set up a blueheaven lynch? Or was it to confirm yourself as 100% town?

Still too many possibilities of what happened to say blueheaven is 100% scum atm but it's an interesting revelation.

I also concur with Alina's idea, would be putting good use of Babi's power role now it's known to everyone.

[Clusk92]

Side question: Do most of your live in the USA? It seems that most of the posts occur when I'm asleep lol, quite frustrating

[Clusk92]

*You

[Clusk92]

@ Andrew: I already stated in my post why I voted for you. I'm not just basing my vote on the 'accidental' lynch either. Also the fact you claimed VT is irrelevant to whether you are scum or town, scum can always claim VT and it is impossible to counter-claim.

Also agree with Formerfish in regards to Blueheaven, it would be much better if you came on and defended yourself, but atm you're not helping yourself by staying quiet.

[Clusk92]

Most of my concern with

Clusk

is what I addressed in post #117

Additionally, the only two people he's had scumreads on are myself and

Babi

. If Babi is town like he claims, that's

at least

a 50% townie that he's scumreading, assuming you still think I'm scum. His only vote on Day 1 was on me. He then proceeds to question Babi on his vote in Day 2:

VOTE: Shaddowez

Reasons?

There has been very little interaction between Clusk and

blueheaven

. Clusk's most recent post was

Blueheaven, it would be much better if you came on and defended yourself

The only other post Clusk even mentions blue is when he's giving Babi a hard time about claiming and voting for blue.

I posted about

Huntress

a short while ago because I had mentioned I would yesterday, but after going through ISOs and re-reads, I'm not getting the same sense I did yesterday. I want to hear more from blue before jumping on the bandwagon, but my current instinct is that blue and

Clusk

are scumbuddies.

My question to Babi wasn't based on me thinking he was scum, I just don't like votes without substance. I got scum vibes at first when there wasn't much to go on but since he has seemed a lot more town imo by the end of day 1, his JK backed that up and I have no doubt he is 100% town now due to no counter-claim.

Blueheaven came across as mostly town since he replaced in this game and was one of my top town reads, so felt no need to interact with him until Babi's JK reveal, which made me very suspicious of him, so now I want to question him, nothing wrong with that.

Okay. I thought it over today and I think that because I was SO sure Neil was gonna flip scum, that when he didn't, it really damaged my confidence in my reads and so I became kind of okay with just kind of swapping them all over the place because I wasn't confident enough and I was afraid of being wrong again.

Out of curiosity - what's going to happen when you're wrong again?

ATF, nice. Very manipulative.

I could see

Clusk

being scum -- he posted a lot to begin with, then afterwards started going UTR. This kind of left an impression in my mind that he was more active and contributing more than he really was, when in reality he's just been...there. Piping in every once and a while with pretty much just common sense.

Early on I had a few ideas who vague ideas who scum were based on simple stuff such as the sarcasm as you don't really have much to go off and I find it hard to understand some cases of sarcasm on the internet.

Now though I'm finding it a bit more difficult to find scum-motivated postings, guess I'm not the best at this game. Nonetheless, my top 3 suspicions atm are blueheaven, shaddow and Andrew, and 2 of the of those aren't posting much atm, so it'd be nice if they joined in a bit more so I could question them.

[Clusk92]

That should read a 'few vague ideas who scum were', I should double check before posting!

[Clusk92]

I'd like to hear a proper detailed defence from Hayato before showing intent to hammer.

[Clusk92]

Okay, cool.

VOTE: Hayato

If anyone's gonna hammer, at least make sure everyone on the wagon is still cool with it. Claims at this current point with the knowledge we have are pretty useless, btw.

What if he claims 1 Shot Bulletproof?

[Clusk92]

...

I'm guessing replacing out a day after replacing in while being put under pressure by others is pretty scummy, right?

[Clusk92]

4 different players have occupied one slot already during the game - newbie question: is there any statistical evidence that slots that are constantly replaced with new players more likely to be a mafia slot?

[Clusk92]

Hi! It looks like you may have drawn the short straw this time.

4 different players have occupied one slot already during the game - newbie question: is there any statistical evidence that slots that are constantly replaced with new players more likely to be a mafia slot?

There's some discussion and stats on it in this thread.

Interesting - thanks.

Judging by those stats it appears there is a slightly higher chance that a slot with replacements will be scum rather than town.

The fact that the slot has had FOUR people in it, as well as Hayato replacing out very fast when being put under pressure (which seems very scummy just on its own, unless there's another reason which we'll never know), added to the JK claim, I reckon there's enough evidence against Boon for me to change my vote for now.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Boonskiies

Boon is now at L-1 I believe.

[Clusk92]

That's a pretty impressive change of opinion for someone who's had me as one of their strongest townreads all game and also only saw me in a possible scum team with Andrew.

I'm gonna read some ISO's tomorrow and re-evaluate things, but I'm still certain that either Shaddow or Andrew is scum.

[Clusk92]

That's fair enough, I still think you're town so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, as your change of opinion has logical reasoning at least.

But everything I did was logical, my suspicion about Babi's early vote on Jopa was nothing to do with defending him, it was just a plain weird post imo and was rightly picked up on by myself and others.

My change of opinion was justified on Blueheaven also, the JK claim made it a bit more likely that he could be scum, yet not definite, and I still wasn't convinced until Blueheaven was logged on but not posting and his replacement replaced out while under attack, most people would think he was scum after that IMO.

[Clusk92]

And even after all of the above happened Andrew still thought he was innocent, without giving any reason.

In fact, my votes going on him again for now.

VOTE: Andrewseagull

[Clusk92]

Another reason why I'm also still suspicious of Shaddow even after him being jailkeeped (if Babisoup did as he said he would) was his willingness to be put in jail to prove his innocence- it almost reeks of a mafia roleblocker coming under pressure and wanting to put his name in the clear and be confirmed town.

[Clusk92]

And here I was writing a big post defending myself, lol.

GG town, you win.

I played that pretty terribly, being scum is hard, but you guys are good at this!

[Clusk92]

Cheers, I was going to kill you first night as I you looked the most town to me, but Blueheaven convinced me to let him kill Babi in the end, which is ultimately what screwed us when he got JKed.

Also think that Boon's bussing of me when he was getting lynched didn't help me too much either