NEWBIE 1693 />_ TO_ARCHIVE

[Orange]

k, i take it you all like long walls of text

but im going to be concise and straight to the point

ill post a review in the morning

but a headsup if you find my playstyle scummy

[Orange]

also im a blunt guy

so don't take anything personally

[Orange]

Since I think (hope?) he was joking, UNVOTE: PhantomCobalt

meh post

did you really expect someone to hammer pc

and then get instalynched tomorrow

[Orange]

I... can't really imagine anyone would be incompetent enough to just outright admit to being scum that early on- I'd barely believe it from a newbie, much less an SE.

Which of course raises the question as to what PC is actually doing, because nothing about this reads as a good play. If he's town, there'd be no reason to take the risk or pull all this initial suspicion, even as a joke. Slightly more plausible is that he's mafia and this is a very risky bit of reverse psychology or something. So, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he responds, but I guess I'm inclined to think he's actually scum here?

the first sentence pings me as fake

and then you threw shade at him in the second paragraph

when in the first sentence you expressed a conflicted and unsure opinion about what pc was doing

sounds like a contradiction?

[Orange]

What's the difference between claiming day cop and claiming mafia role blocker?

a fuck ton of difference

claiming scum gets a wagon on you

claiming day cop is dumb

and thor is our IC

but yes in theory their both the same; but reaction-wise I don't see a wagon on thor

so that begs the question

why isn't our IC getting more votes

[Orange]

Interesting point, but by claiming mafia, joke or otherwise, you reveal you're a threat to town. If you're a real mafia you're our foe, if you're joking you've caused an unnecessary distraction that detracts from that day's discussion, as well as making people super wary of you.

A day cop wouldn't be a threat to town, lol. At worse he could be a mafia claiming cop, which would be a gambit in of itself, ei low rate of success.

If you're voting to bait into an OMGUS counter vote it won't work. I never vote this early in the day.

k i can't tell if this is a newbie town post or a newbie scum post

let me do an iso of him

[Orange]

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this thor vs pants dynamic looks like

town vs town

while scum are coasting by

[Orange]

Ha, apologies for the mild lurking. Busy couple of days, other things taking priority and such- I'll probably still be relatively busy over the weekend, but I'll do my best to get on more.

Anyway, as to the game itself... accepting that all the fake claim nonsense was just a reaction test, I guess my only issue with it now is that it means we don't have much else to go on when it comes to reading PC? Which is somewhat hypocritical on my part, I suppose, but there you go. Even so, the lack of a read really doesn't compare to how I'm viewing Pants at the moment. Mostly because of this:

A: In post 40 the question you asked and the question you seem to want me to have answered are different. The way you worded it ("does this concern you?") asks if I'm concerned. As in scared or worried. Of course it didn't scare me that two theories I made were wrong. Why would it? But what I see in you're newer posts implies you asked me "Does this change anything?". If you wanted me to answer that question then why didn't you ask it? Of course I didn't tell you that my opinion changed because the answer to "does this concern you?" is not "I don't think PC is scum anymore,". It's either "Yes it terrifies me." or "No it doesn't.". I think you asked me "does this concern you?" because you wanted me to give the answer I did. You tricked me. I gave an answer that didn't change my opinion. You made sure I wouldn't by giving a question that didn't warrant one. After that add a few mistakes I made like saying he is noob scum or noob town instead of just saying he is noob, and you have a pretty solid case that everyone will believe.

Like... nothing about that argument seems remotely valid or reasonable to me. Trying to use quibbling wording differences to make it sound like 'does this concern you' doesn't obviously mean 'does this change anything' is just... sketchy, to me, and not at all a valid way out of the issue at hand? The rest of his stuff doesn't sit well with me either, but that one is just particularly bad.

Grendel's analysis seems well thought out, enough that I'm willing to suspect Col- however, Pants strikes me as the more suspicious of the two, although admittedly they're also the one I've been paying the most attention to.

At any rate, their arguments so far seem suspicious (by which I mean, poor and contradictory) and they've only got one vote, so I have no qualms with saying:

VOTE: Pants98

k

why is pants scummy?

where have his arguments been suspicious?

like you can argue theory and word-choice to the ends of the world

but it comes down to whose manipulating the current wagon

in this case, you reached for the low hanging fruit

[Orange]

k micc is my strongest tr

hobbs my sr

VOTE: HobbesDuncan

[Orange]

Did a one time read through while at work. Ended up making plans for tonight so not a ton of time to post.

I disagree with almost everything about orange's push against HobbsDuncan.
Would also like to hear more about his town read on me.

Wouldn't mind hearing Thor explain what kind of information PhantomColbalt has offered this game. From my point of view he's successfully dodged an L-1 RVS wagon by doing nothing except lay down an unsupported vote and "reaction test" - two things I don't find all that insightful.

I'm having a hard time ignoring the fact that he hasn't done anything to cause the L-1 pressure wagon to dissolve, because the whole point of a pressure wagon is to make someone do *things* and then to form reads off those *things*.

Do you perceive his posts to be genuine then because I really don't like #30. Maybe that's just me but it seems fake to me.

PC has been lurking, yes, but it isn't alignment indicative. Just anti-town.

[Orange]

Also what do you think about the thor vs pants dynamic?

[Orange]

Sorry, I'll respond to everybody and their questions this afternoon.

[Orange]

I... can't really imagine anyone would be incompetent enough to just outright admit to being scum that early on- I'd barely believe it from a newbie, much less an SE.

Which of course raises the question as to what PC is actually doing, because nothing about this reads as a good play. If he's town, there'd be no reason to take the risk or pull all this initial suspicion, even as a joke. Slightly more plausible is that he's mafia and this is a very risky bit of reverse psychology or something. So, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he responds, but I guess I'm inclined to think he's actually scum here?

The first sentence and the last sentence don't make sense

If nobody was incompetent enough to admit they were scum

why is he inclined to believe that he is actually scum here?

[Orange]

Monogarden, I'm still interested in hearing more reasoning on way you find me scumy. If those two posts, and me being critical of Cobalt's play are all you got then I must say that I find the allegations against me rather underwhelming.

Cobalt, so What were the results of your test? I'd still like some elaboration on your vote for me too.

Orange, hello, your predecessor was my top scum read. Therefore you're you've inherited my suspicions of him. Do you have anything to say about my thoughts that he was taking advantage of his inexperience to dismiss arguments against him?

hi there, can you lay out your questions in one post

i'll do my best to answer them

[Orange]

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micc is my strongest tr

Also, I would like to hear reasoning for this.

strongest tr because I get the sense that you are genuinely town

the aggressive questions that you've been asking don't fit newbie scum persona like #27 and #33

I don't think scum would be brazen enough to put pc down to l-1.

your also consistent on your pc read and you follow it up with posts like #145 and #147

for me thats good enough at this stage

[Orange]

Okay #162 has changed my mind

@Micc What do you think about monogarden?

[Orange]

Okay I am back. After re-reading

Hobbes feels better and I'm inclined to say I was wrong about him.

The Grendel post (sorry on the phone right now) gave me good feels.

In terms of my strongest tr i would now say Micc/Grendel

Thor's argument is strong and I like it

Would prefer a pc lynch right now considering sugar hasn't really posted anything substantive

I'll talk more about pants later when I get on a computer

[Orange]

For now at least

VOTE: PC

[Orange]

Times upVOTE: PC

VOTE: Pants

[Orange]

Orange: You were saying that Cobalt’s death result would further a case, (or something), against SugarJan, correct? How is that working out?

SugerJan is lacking in activity so I can't really do anything about, but it's disappointing.

Pant's hammer was really bad; why aren't you voting him?

[Orange]

PC

- Micc, SugarJan, Monogarden, Orange, Pants98

Pants98 - Thor665, HobbesDuncan, Grendel

Micc

- PhantomCobalt

Both wagons had reasonable support, but the three things that caught my eye after yesterday.

1. Pant's hammer was bad because of two reasons. Firstly, he had given him minimal time to respond to him. Ten minutes, under the assumption that PC was still online, would be okay, but the fact that he wasn't online, was bad. Not everybody can respond to you immediately. Secondly, after #189, he ignores Thor's questions, calling PC scum, and hammers before he had even claimed. The part that gets me is that he ignored Thor's post. I can attribute laziness to some of it but you need to respond to people's questions.

2. Micc's death. He thought that Grendel had sheeped the PC vote, and their seemed to be people, vote-happy, to jump on the wagon. I was on the wagon myself, but I'm working under the assumption that there is one scum on and off the wagon. That is why I think Suger might be scum on the wagon, considering the lack of activity and lack of pressure on his/her slot. Not sure about monogarden, but I'll come back to that slot. I've discussed Pants and I do think he is most likely going to flip scum. If by some magical reason, he flips town, then I would be thinking about Sugar/Monogarden later. Thor/Hobbes are comfortably in my town pile for now and Grendel's posts have been good. If Pants flips scum, then Thor would definitely be in my town pile and I would be looking at distancing from newb scum.

Anyways, my conclusion. If Pants flips scum then I want to take a look at the early distancing that Pants did, because I don't think he bussed anybody. If Pant's flips town, then I would be looking at Mono/Sugar. Honestly, I need to ISO Mono again, because I can't remember anything that he/she has done. I'll give my thoughts later.

[Orange]

UNVOTE: Pants

[Orange]

That said, they're currently at L-1, not L-2, which means that, on the off chance I'm wrong, scum could theoretically swoop in and end this. And even in the significantly more likely scenario that they're scum, I'd still prefer to keep them alive until they've answered the questions facing them to a satisfactory degree. Thus- Thor, Orange, or Grendel, I request that one or two of you unvote for the moment, so as to remove the risk of this day ending early. Thank you.

The person who derp hammered would be lynched. Someone gets nightkilled (doc/bp excluded), then we have five players. LYLO.

[Orange]

That said, they're currently at L-1, not L-2, which means that, on the off chance I'm wrong, scum could theoretically swoop in and end this. And even in the significantly more likely scenario that they're scum, I'd still prefer to keep them alive until they've answered the questions facing them to a satisfactory degree. Thus- Thor, Orange, or Grendel, I request that one or two of you unvote for the moment, so as to remove the risk of this day ending early. Thank you.

The person who derp hammered would be lynched. Someone gets nightkilled (doc/bp excluded), then we have five players. LYLO.

Meh, if it goes down like Hobbes is describing, sounds like we'd lynch scum - which I'd be okay with.
Though I'm not sure whether his non-fear is odder, or your belief that we'd be

obligated to lynch the hammerer

.
Also, if there was a 'derp hammer' and Pants flipped scum - that would also be a quite different reality than Hobbes pseudo-fear or your theory worst case.

What benefit does his partner get by rushing a lynch on someone who will, and most likely will be, the lynch for today?

If Pants is town, scum are practically guaranteed a free ticket to lylo, which is why I'm curious about the people who are hesitant on lynching Pants.

That phrase highlighted in blue doesn't sit right with me. You are voting Pants right now, because he hammered PC before he claimed.

So what's the difference between somebody quick hammering Pants right now, and him flipping town? Nothing. There isn't a difference. We're still obligated to lynch the hammerer because of their poor play, regardless of whatever intentions they had.

So why are you questioning me about it, when you yourself, are voting Pants currently?

[Orange]

If you're going to buss, the best plan is to buss early and hard, not late and derpy.

You just agreed with me; who did Pants buss early on?

What evidence do you have to support that thought - I've certainly never said anything of the sort.

You were already onto Pants beforehand, but the hammer impacted you read on him. How can you just ignore it then?

So what's the difference between somebody quick hammering Pants right now, and him flipping town? Nothing. There isn't a difference. We're still obligated to lynch the hammerer because of their poor play, regardless of whatever intentions they had.

?

Because I have no idea why someone would believe you're obligated to lynch hammerers - hammering isn't inherently any more or less scummy than any other vote on the wagon - all votes lead to a lynch, not just the last one.

Yes but the last vote should be withheld until the person claims a role. The reason that hammer was bad was because he didn't ask for his role. I don't see town being so desperate to hammer someone else.

[Orange]

Basically I replaced into this game to do one thing.

VOTE: Thor

this is scum.

What do you think about Pants and his hammer?

[Orange]

Answer those questions, thanks.

[Orange]

Thor, what are your reads currently?

[Orange]

So, basically no matter which way Pants flips you have Orange as a top suspect regardless?
That logic seems iffy.

Mm... yeah, that's fair. Admittedly the reasoning is different for each scenario, but I see your point. Of course, reads based on the possibility of Pants flipping town are pretty tentative- Orange being scum is

less

likely in that situation, but I think I could still believe it.

What do you find scummy about me? I can address it to some degree if you point it out.

What do you think about Monogarden?

[Orange]

monogarden- Agrees with Thor's case against Pants, Pants is their primary scumread outside of Grendel. Thinks case on Pants is solid but shouldn't be pushed as hard? Could be soft defending, maybe. As of D2, okay with voting Pants.

Can you expand on this? How would your read change if Pants flipped town?

[Orange]

Alright, today is catch up day.

mmmh, i expect scum to be lynched today

*salutes*

[Orange]

There has been an extended period of this game where I've been the only productive player - instead of asking other people to ask you questions (a continuing non-active stance) why don't you ask some questions to other people (like I've been doing) to generate conversation?

[Orange]

@Mod I'm not currently voting Pants.

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[Orange]

If you convince me then maybe

[Orange]

let me read

[Orange]

grendel iso has a lot of unconcise posts

some of his posts are bad like #49

but then you have decent posts like #180 & #208

feels like he is spewing out his thought processes and reads

don't feel an incentive to vote him currently

[Orange]

Uh.... RC this isn't what you want to here but I'm a VT.

[Orange]

Okay, I am here to solve the game.

[Orange]

In fact, I think Thor might be scared.

I'm going to reread and see if Thor/Grendel is a thing.

This push on me feels really chainsawy, the way he started going into instant MUST PUSH A QUICKLYNCH mode when I said I was reconsidering the possibility of him being scum, and just the fact that I don't remember Thor pissing me off like this as town. Like I think in general he's pretty narrow minded and one direction but what he's been doing this game has been flat out brick wall and it's starting to bug me.

Possible, don't like Thor's push on you.

He said something about pushing for Grendel lynch after Pants, but seems to be pushing for you now?

[Orange]

Hmm. I'm... not entirely convinced? Because to be honest, I found your logic for Pants being a PR to be pretty shaky as well, and I'm not seeing any poor logic in the specific posts you quoted from Thor- although I don't see you as a Pants scumpartner either, I do agree that your attempt to get him to claim PR would be far too blatant a move for a scumteam, especially if someone counterclaimed. Really, I don't find Thor's case against you or your case against him to be particularly compelling at the moment.

Regardless. Pants is still all but confirmed scum in my mind. If you want to lynch Grendel today... convince me. Why is Grendel scum? And, more importantly, why isn't Pants? While I could see Grendel as possible scum, my read on them isn't anywhere near as strong.

Oh, and since I did find it to be an interesting thought when it was asked of me- say we lynch Grendel and he flips town, or we lynch Pants and he flips scum. How would either of those change your other reads?

Are you still inclined to believe that me and Pants are a team?

I believed he was town before he hammered PC and though I'm less inclined to believe it now, why do you think that his hammer was scum motivated?

What about newb Pants hammering?

[Orange]

@grendel

Hard to say. He plays in a very different way than I do but he does it consistently as town as well as scum.

That said, I don't understand why he was so certain Pants was a PR. That makes no sense to me. I was way more willing to believe newb pants hammering than PR pants. If anything, you'd think he'd be even more eager to hear a claim since it would give him a good idea about PCs role and whether or not he was telling the truth.

I am with him on the questioning of Thor, though.

I don't see the case on you, but I'd be open to listening to it. Right now, I'm looking at pants, thor and orange and my top scum reads.

Why are you so sure that Grendel is town here?

[Orange]

@Thor, why did you switch?

For a number of reasons - but to simmer them down to the most clear and concise.

If Pants is scum - RC makes sense as a scumpartner to a large degree.
If Pants is town - RC's play there seems *really* like fishing at that point, and is super skeevy.

The lack of logic around RC's claimed beliefs about Pants lends support to the idea that she was either coaching or fishing - because she wasn't using any other sort of logic, and I don't think she inherently lacks all logic. Ergo - either of the above options has to be reality, and therefore she's the better lynch than Pants.

Make sense?

Hold up; why did you go from Pants being scum here to RC being scum. This is flawed reasoning because you're not accounting for RC being town. This is a confbiased argument because in both scenario's RC is scum?

[Orange]

VOTE: Thor

I'll be back later.

[Orange]

...You know, I find it odd that you responded to this post instead of the earlier one where I had a bunch of direct questions for you. Seems like you're trying to dodge actually answering. So, again- why did you think he was town?

(And, to answer your questions-
1. Yes, but to a lesser degree than before.
2. You're the one who had their opinion on Pants changed by the hammer, how about you answer this one?
3. It was a newb hammer either way- that doesn't really make a difference.)

Again, Orange- why did you think Pants was town, and, since you brought it up, how did the hammer change your mind? I'd like an answer before RC posts their case for Pants being town, if at all possible.

His posts didn't feel scum-motivated; it just felt like a newbie trying to be aggressive. #53 & #36 both exhibit aggressive questions. #62 does not feel like him trying to mislynch somebody. He clearly stands back, acknowledging his mistake. #66 smells of newbiness. His argument, compared to Thor's is albeit, poor, but bad argument does not equal bad town.

#83 feels like an attitude post. #87 even agrees with me in saying that a bad case does not equal scum.

Okay, then the bad feels start coming in. #111 where he defends grendel, meh. The hammer on PC was just bad. Arguing that Pants was desperate at that point was possible, but I don't see why he'd want to hammer PC while most of his posts were focused on Thor. His latter posts feel like someone trying to stay alive. All in all, I believed Pants was town before the hammer and now I'm iffy.

[Orange]

but bad argument does not equal bad scum*

[Orange]

RC, post your grendel case

[Orange]

Thor, gimme some reads.

[Orange]

Here's my list:

Hobbes/Grendel - strongest town
RC - slight town
Orange - null, could go either way
Pants - scum but not the scummiest
Thor - voting you

Why is Hobbes/Grendel your strongest tr?

[Orange]

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In post 479, monogarden wrote:

I think Thor relies way too heavily on logical fallacies that he uses to attack people.

Maybe I do.

How is that scummy?

[Orange]

I think I could believe Mono on scumteam over Orange.

[Orange]

RC, what are your thoughts on mono right now?

[Orange]

And no, I believe Grendel is town. If someone wants to ask me why I believe that, go through his ISO and tell me where you see scum-motivation and get back to me

[Orange]

Catching up.

[Orange]

#555 - You're voting Grendel but if you think Pants quickhammering is bad then why aren't you voting him? You make it sound as if Pants is the real scum.
#556 - Agreed.
#565 - Fine.
#566/588 - You sound like you are beyond help on anybody other then a Grendel lynch.

Legitimately, I want a Monogarden lynch today. I'll explain it in a bit.

[Orange]

And yes, I don't think its great to read into night kills that much but Hobbes listed off Grendel as leaning town and Mono as leaning scum.

[Orange]

Still think Grendel is town to some extent.

[Orange]

Probably Pants, and then RC.

[Orange]

Pants --> Grendel --> RC