Newbie 1707 - Game Over

[KaladinStormblessed]

The forum's alive again! Don't got much except tentative suspicion at seth, for strangeness his post and that it's a second vote while you guys seem to be the kind that random notes at first to gather info.

[KaladinStormblessed]

It's not as random cause it's the second vote on a person, with no real reason, but follow up votes are more suspicious than the first vote. Also you have a reason, joking revenge vote, he doesn't. I don't like to bounce my vote around so I wait to vote. Yes, I have done mafia before, a few games on gamefaqs, unsure if I'll be able to find links. Almost didn't post it for fear it'd be suspicious but didn't want to be silent.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Honestly it doesn't seem that suspicious but is the only thing going on, and only meant to note that it different than others and a thing I'm noting in my mental list of things about this game, and as i said didn't want to be silent. If it is a poke at an acquaintance, a noobs game with newcomers to the forum and or game isn't the best place for that.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Yeah I get what your saying, and yeah it sounds scummy, but town wants to find scum without getting confused for scum, and it's happened to me before where I get taken for scum for having suspicions, which in that case were a mostly right (1 or both of pair of suspects ended up being scum iirc) but I died and I think town lost - it's been a year or so since my last game. Don't want to distract the town.

[KaladinStormblessed]

that was a old draft of my post dang it, not what i copied and pasted, but oh well too late. can't even freaking edit to add on what i meant to say so have to double post (maybe), but oh well. Still got suspected for scum with my old games (happened 1-2 years ago 2 years being the first game and a year ago about for my fourth or fifth and most recent), when just clumsy at first.

[KaladinStormblessed]

and townies don't want to distract from the scum hunt by being suspicious in their hunting, and smart scum would never say they're trying to seem unsuspicious. and as Simoyd said, I probably could find the old games if I wanted to but don't really want to for various reasons.

[KaladinStormblessed]

I mainly use my phone, and by copy pasting as I draft I can check if any new posts have shown up.

[KaladinStormblessed]

I thought this very scenario would happen, that it'd seem scummy/sheepy because I was of similar opinion to wgeurts and this kindof thing would happen, but I also figured better to start posting to get conversation going than to be a silent lurker.
and on post 34, I'd offfer up my thoughts but I'm about to be busy and away from the internet for a bit, so later maybe

[KaladinStormblessed]

I'm here, I'm just struggling to come up with something useful to add that's not parroting others. When I do have a thought that I would have posted, someone posts something similar and parroting is unhelpful and can seem scummy. I'm trying to be quicker/put together my own reads but I'm not great in d1. Btw
It's kal, or kaladin please.

[KaladinStormblessed]

And now you're seeming pretty scummy Red, with that, and you don't seem to explain much.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Is Sons an abbreviation for scum on scum? Cause if so, you'd be mistaken.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Can you explain why? Cause bo ones talking no lynch, so are you meaning you want to, you and them specifically, swing the vote in a direction you/they decide?

[KaladinStormblessed]

@KaladinStormblessed: What do you think about Raskolnikov?

Speaking of general feel, for them I'm leaning towards townie, and a out the others, RedCoyote and seth feel scummier right now, and the more vocal of you seem towny while the quiet should post more (but hey, I'm in that boat too).

[KaladinStormblessed]

I'm starting to think seth may be town, bad town, but still town, but RedCoyote is scummy. I'd vote him but are unsure what the totals are, don't really have time to put a full list of my opinions. Later today probably.

[KaladinStormblessed]

My times that I can post much are more of about 3 hours from now and variable lent periods depending on the day, and what else I have to do till about 9 hours from now each day.

[KaladinStormblessed]

So I"m going to be a bit lazy and steal aplaca's format, switching out for my reasons and levels of scumminess

Ok so after 10 pages I have some reads set in my mind and this is what I have,

Hoppic- seems townie, his recent posts have me thinking he's more likely town (6.6/10 towniness)

Alpaca- Mostly agreed with his reads (obviously not including the notion that I would be scum), and has been asking good questions, but doesn't feel extremely townie to me yet. (6.2/10 towniness)

Murph- starting to get a town read on him now, though didn't a first, but liking his reads (except for me of course, but then my play is growing) (6.8/10 towniness)

Rask- town feel, with the good questions, agree with his disagreement of RedCoyote townbloc, (7/10 towniness)

RedCoyote- scummy feeling coming from him, with the townbloc that others have already linked to valid objections of, and the not reading it all before asking if others would help lynch alpaca (2.8/10 towniness)

SethYazura- early action appeared to reek of scumminess, and his recovery is less than phenomenal, spinning it as an experiment, but then the vanilla claim has me thinking it might just be a case of bad newbie play being disappointed with being vanilla and so trying to make a scene. i'm in no way confident in him but I do think he might be being honest in his claim (4.5/10 towniness)

Simoyd- asking lots of questions, chasing suspicions and sharing thoughts, probably the towniest a the moment in my mind (7.8/10 towniness)

Wgeurts- really applied pressure to seth when he was reeking of scum, and really got conversation going seems pretty town (7.2/10 towniness)

and I didn't give anyone so much as an eight, cause this is d1, and its never a good idea to totally decide they must be town when only thinking of their words and there is no proof.
I'll VOTE: RedCoyote, (puts him at 4 votes, if he gets hammered before we come to consensus, gives us scum suspects and info) and he should respond to Murph's accusations.

[KaladinStormblessed]

freaking double posted, oh well, their identical, and can't delete one of em do to the rules.

You can't but I can, and have done so. -Mod

[KaladinStormblessed]

They both are on the same page on the seth issue, as am I. Murph kinda rubbed me the wrong way at first but hasn't said anything scummy.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Well it's all post night kill thought but if I were coyote I would kill rask since he has been putting pressure on him mainly and has called him out on things and so have others but rask is the least likely to be protected out of all of those so balancing risk and reward I would go for the almost guaranteed kill and get someone off my back

I disagree, because-while this toes the line of wifom territory-if one night kills the guy who's vocally attacking you it would bring more suspicion on you, the better choice would be a vocal trusted townie who isn't against you/your scum buddy/both or as aggressive. But then you can enter wifom territory, them knowing we know, blah blah blah, but that first level is still true.

[KaladinStormblessed]

That first layer of logic, that it's suspicious if the nked person was against someone specific they might be scummy, so smarter scum won't nk the person who was against them (probably).

[KaladinStormblessed]

But basically what I'm saying (or trying to convey) is attempt to guess the nk victim will probably be wrong, and looking to deep at the victims reads could
Lead astray. But that all enters wifom territory as they know we know they know...
Alpacas discussion of who'll get night killed will not really go anywhere.
And my reads really haven't changed much, except continued suspicion towards hopping though I have him as town.
Also parroting isn't intentional, you get enough people together and ask them the same question, you'll get some similar answers.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Ebwop:hoppic, not hopping

[KaladinStormblessed]

Rc, while I agree that there's probably a scum hidden on the seth wagon, it was a very easy lynch, and both wouldn't have been on it, imo one of the people not ok n seth is scum, and seth is dead which leaves Murph and Rc, on of you is scum, and right now I'm about 60-40 on it being RC over murph.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Ebwop: ok n was supposed to be on. And One of you not on. Autocorrect >_>

[KaladinStormblessed]

Ok so briefly looking back I am starting to think that Kal is most likely scum here since, as we looked at before he has not posted a lot throughout the game which is ok I suppose for certain reasons but he says that he isn't posting a lot because he doesn't want to be seen as scum

that was just for my first few posts

by mimicking what other people think since he has basically the same opinions as everyone else. He than says that he will try and post more before others post his same thoughts. However, aside from when directly asked he never really comes out and says anything, and it's not like he is gone when everyone is posting since in post 187 when Rask mentions he is in prod range he basically instantly responds. Multiple people has suggested that he post more and he has yet to do so, and aside from 2 posts all of his posts have been max like 2 sentences. In one of his more recent posts 521 he says that his thoughts haven't changed except slightly more of a scum read on Hoppic though he still thinks that he is town. I am seeing a lurking scum attempting to lay low and coast making an occasional post to dodge prods.

VOTE: KaladinStormblessed

I think that that other scum was for sure on the Seth wagon and the people on that wew (Simoyd, wgeurts, AlpacaAlpaca, Rask, Hoppic)
Counting out Sim RIP and myself, that means we have Wgeurts, Rask, and Hoppic and I am strong town reading both Wgeurts and Rask and so I am seeing Hoppic as scum buddies with Kal, but I am much more focused on Kal right now so thats where my vote goes.

I'm naturally more of a lurker, and see little point in making a post that reiterates the same things I or others already said, and day one, there wasn't much I saw that others hadn't already observed. I'm not going to waste time BSing a wall of text of reasons when they're very similar to ones already stated.

I'm very torn on 649. I actually appreciate that KS was honest with me in being forefront about still suspecting me moreso than Murph. That's fair and I welcome it, especially in direct response to my wanting him to post more. However, that post lacks content and he still lacks overall content. So, you know, there's something that is holding me back from moving him in either direction from my current weak town read.

wgeurts made a complaint in 645 that I was "posting half the player list". Well, yes and no, because when I say that it's reasonable to conclude there's one scum in {wgeurts, Ras, Alpaca, Hoppic}, the implication is there is also likely one scum in {RC, Murph, KS}. Further, that group is one I'd be very interested in focusing on today. This is why I was not in a rush to vote for Hoppic coming into today. At this point in time, and I am of course subject to change should circumstances change, I think we should lynch between Murph and KS.

Now, it's important for me to recognize that I would be in that group. I'm willing to take that liability on because I think my D1 is strong enough on the back of my refusal to call Seth scum. This is WIFOM, yes, but it's important to consider nonetheless.

Alternatively, we could debate the likelihood of both scum riding Seth yesterday. I find that less likely due to how generally well-received his wagon was throughout most of the day. wgeurts and Alpaca both joined the Seth wagon early and rode it for the entire day. Ras, Murph, Hoppic and KS were all effectively supporters in various degrees of strength. In other words, this was not a wagon that people were "going back and forth on". Additionally, given that we know Sim is town, we know at least in his case that that wagon was very attractive to one townie. Indeed, Sim's only vote yesterday was for Seth.

tl;dr = There should be one scum on and one scum off the Seth wagon. If you accept this, we should lynch either Murph or KS today.

So basically you're on the same thought as me, seeing each other or murph as a probable scum.
as for the other group I've got more of a town read on wgeurts and rask, leaving the potential scum, in my view, in murph or RC, and hoppic or alpaca.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Actually I said the one off part first, then rc followed. And while it's not the most solid, how likely do you think it is that both scum were on Seth? It wasn't that hard of a lynch, it wouldn't need both scum. And how likely is it that neither were on him given that scum would be trying to fit in so one would want to be on there. It not the best logic, but it's more likely.

[KaladinStormblessed]

I have become v/la and will be for about a week, probably will be able to sneak in some posts, but I really intended to step it up and then, as the wiki calls it, 'meatworld' got in the way

[KaladinStormblessed]

I'm gonna claim now.
I'm the jailkeeper.

[KaladinStormblessed]

That should <i>pretty much</i> confirm me as town, given that i I was lying, there would be a 5 in 6 chance someone would be able to call me out on it.

[KaladinStormblessed]

and dang it that's the wrong formating for this site.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Targeted rask twice cause I felt like he was vocal enough, and I had a town read on him, to make him a decent target.
The 5/6 is cause the matrix set up. 1 row or column is used so 6 possible columns and only one where jk is only role. So 5/6 that there'd be someone with a different role (really only 4/6 that would prove me wrong).
And if we mislynch it would leave 1 town and 2 scum tomorrow, a loss. Also if we no lynch than they'll night kill to have it even town to scum making it inevitable and a loss. We have to lynch a scum today. Now if someone mis - votes then scum can hope on to the vote and we lose. So not including any reads - if we were to vote randomly (which we won't but stating the statistics of this)- there's a 50-50 chance we'll get a scum, because I'm the only confirmed town.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Murphys and rask need to get in here.
But yeah, that's the long and short of it, I cannot be lying because I'd get called out on it, and so that leaves the list being Murph, Rask, Alpaca and hoppic. My reads before today would have me going scumiest to least scum/more town: murph hoppic alpaca, rask. But I'm rethinking that, want to reread and will be able to do so soon. Purely looking at today's posts you two are seeming town but need to be very cautious today.
Btw well it'd be nice if we had a BP, I have a feeling we don't and if we did I'd rather they didn't claim, cause I feel like there isn't and a scum could ride a fake claim on it for the win, so I'd really not want to see a BP claim today.

[KaladinStormblessed]

I'm about halfway through my reread, but I did skim through with everyone alive set to iso.
From the reread, I liked rask day 1, but the more recent stuff, has me uneasy, though part of it may be increased paranoia
Not sure on murph, I at first felt he seemed scummy but on rereading I now have him more null.
Hoppic before was rather high on my list but his today has been better, but still not very confident
Alpaca is the one whose currently lowest on my list, but it's not by much though still need to finish my reread, .

[KaladinStormblessed]

I've got a lot to read but bad Internet atm. Will be back on saturday, hopefully the game isn't over by then (did skim, and given the votals anf the lack of a loss, one of the two has to be scuml

[KaladinStormblessed]

Eughhh, this is bad. Right now my intent to vote is more towards murph, but darn it this is a mess. I'm thinking hoppic is more likely of the partner, but I can also easily see it being alpaca. I need to reread d3 again to get it clearer, but I do plan on throwing down my vote sometime sunday, whichever way it ends up going.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Well, here goes
VOTE: murph

[KaladinStormblessed]

Given neither hoppic (who posted) nor alpaca (who's profile says he were online, not perfect because there are excuses, but you can't excuse away everything) have hammered yet, I'm pretty confident my votes where it should be. If you were town scum would have won already.

[KaladinStormblessed]

If your still unsure, I announced my intent of who and when. If I weren't on scum, scum would have leapt at the chance as it would have won the game for them. No need to wait around or attempt to hide anything if the hammer is going to end the game.

[KaladinStormblessed]

It's murph/alpaca.

It's ironic kali voted assuming it's murph/hoppic (which is wrong because it's murph/alpaca) but the vote holding still clears me and confirms murphscum which should finally change hoppics mind (idk how he misread this given what's happened today) so it should still be gg even if peoples reads were wrong.

Ya, I'm really seeing murph/alpaca now.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Murph/rask happened and unless both are scum, or one is one isn't because if both were town scum would've hopped on and won the game. So we've got one scum in there and one in hoppic/alpaca. Then I put murph at L-1 and neither alpaca or hoppic hammered, which would have been a win. So there is no chance of murph not being scum.

[KaladinStormblessed]

nope. There is simply no scenario where you are town and scum didn't end the game already.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Seems like I blocked scum tonight
targeted alpaca. I didn't die.
VOTE: alpaca

[KaladinStormblessed]

ebwop: last night

[KaladinStormblessed]

I've considered that. but I think it's unlikely, as rask already had you pegged as his next target, and so if Hoppic was scum he could have nk'ed me and been ready to win. Murph being roleblocker confirms Rask. I wish I'd remembered to say 'yesterday' that I planned on jailing you so that if I had happened to die it would have outed hoppic, but it worked out.

[KaladinStormblessed]

You're right it's not perfect, but with reads and the feel for the game, I'm confident enough.