Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[JaeReed]

Yo, I'm here.

Questions before I put in the effort to somewhat read up:
Who led the D1 lynch and why? What was the flip?
What are the cases against Loopdan, Norska, and thatsit?
Accountant, are you scum?

[JaeReed]

Plus, I don't have any "real" scumhunting experience yet, so I think I'll be learning more in this game than I did in my first.

MT, while you're here, what did you mean by real scumhunting experience?

[JaeReed]

I personally think the biggest piece of evidence against thatsit is the people who are magically townreading him and won't explain why.

How many people?

[JaeReed]

Was there a counterwagon to Misa D1?

[JaeReed]

Alright

While i do approve of the votes on Charloux I'm gonna be SE-y for a bit and say that we can be wrong on him and I don't want a derp hammer happening while he's unable to defend himself. Giving him a chance to defend himself is fair imo.

Who's scum with thatsit in your opinion, Manuel?

[JaeReed]

Urgh the forum quote thing. ^ Originally quoted to mention it seemed LAMIST ftr. Decided I didn't really think it was AI.

[JaeReed]

You don't buy

either

of them being scum?

[JaeReed]

Alright

While i do approve of the votes on Charloux I'm gonna be SE-y for a bit and say that we can be wrong on him and I don't want a derp hammer happening while he's unable to defend himself. Giving him a chance to defend himself is fair imo.

Who's scum with thatsit in your opinion, Manuel?

My guess would be Accountant.
Tweet and me both stated a scumread on Accountant at the end of day 1.
All of thatsits early day 2 posts pointed away from Accountant probably trying to help him.
This would also explain his sudden activity early day 2.

Norska is a possibility too.

You don't think Transcend/Loopdan is a possibility? Why?

[JaeReed]

Why do you interpret thatsit's D2 posts as him being my scumbuddy as opposed to him simply having a townread on me or trying to buddy me? That makes no sense. You're arranging facts to fit a pre-arranged conclusion.

You don't buy

either

of them being scum?

That question wasn't rhetorical. Would like a clear answer on that.

[JaeReed]

Alright

While i do approve of the votes on Charloux I'm gonna be SE-y for a bit and say that we can be wrong on him and I don't want a derp hammer happening while he's unable to defend himself. Giving him a chance to defend himself is fair imo.

Why am I pretty strong town to you?

You're asking a lot of piercing questions and pretty logical conclusions that I agree with. You're spreading out your interrogations, getting information from everyone, but it doesn't feel like you're trying to misdirect us or shift the focus away from a scum. You're being helpful like a competent townie, without it feeling like you're shepherding people like me. I'm not certain, and I'm open to any more information that could change my reading of you. But if you do turn out to be scum, hats off to you for a good game.

But I don't think Norska is scum anymore now anyway. I think Transcend is far more likely to be Accountant's scum buddy than Norska. My gut tells me now that they're working together.

What changed your mind? In 221 you said your case for voting me was stronger than your case on Transcend. Then six posts later I'm town but T is still scum? Also, I can't see how post 193 took your reading of Accountant from slight town to maximum scum. I can sorta see your argument, but it feels like a pretty major shift in direction.

VOTE: thatsit

L-2.

I've only read up to page 13 but I'm fine with this so far. I'll keep reading up.

Pretty sure Manuel is town, and Transcend's paranoia about the claim and the demotivation + replace also reads town to me. I've never known Transcend to replace as scum just because he got a bit of pressure, or to really dodge the pressure. He knows how to deal with it.

[JaeReed]

Why am I pretty strong town to you?

You're asking a lot of piercing questions and pretty logical conclusions that I agree with. You're spreading out your interrogations, getting information from everyone, but it doesn't feel like you're trying to misdirect us or shift the focus away from a scum. You're being helpful like a competent townie, without it feeling like you're shepherding people like me. I'm not certain, and I'm open to any more information that could change my reading of you. But if you do turn out to be scum, hats off to you for a good game.

But I don't think Norska is scum anymore now anyway. I think Transcend is far more likely to be Accountant's scum buddy than Norska. My gut tells me now that they're working together.

What changed your mind? In 221 you said your case for voting me was stronger than your case on Transcend. Then six posts later I'm town but T is still scum? Also, I can't see how post 193 took your reading of Accountant from slight town to maximum scum. I can sorta see your argument, but it feels like a pretty major shift in direction.

For the record in case I die, I am strongly of the opinion that this post comes from newbtown. I'm very against lynching this slot.

If thatsit doesn't flip scum my fos falls to Transcend/Manuel.
If thatsit flips scum then Manuel is pretty much conftown to me until lylo (where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

[JaeReed]

(where everything needs to be reconsidered because fuck you Accountant for destroying my trust in prior reads)

What's your read on me after thatsit's flip? I was definitely heavily involved in the wagon and questioning process, so you should have some kind of opinion on that.

I don't think I've read up that far yet, or at least if I have you haven't stood out to me in a bad way.

My individual read on you so far is town enough that I'd likely want to look elsewhere for thatsit's partner if he flipped scum. So far I'm seeing what I think to be a lot of gamesolving attempts by you, and dynamic reads.

UNVOTE:

Don't want a hammer before I've read up fully.

[JaeReed]

Alright, I'm up to page 19, sorry I got lazy tbh.

Regardless of who is scum here, I want to say: You're playing very well.

That said, my reads right now are, from towniest to least town:

Accountant - I have seen them as scum before, and their play was shallow in retrospect. There is so much deep probing here and genuine scumhunting that if Accountant flips scum here I'll actually be incredibly surprised.
Transcend - This is slightly weaker than Accountant, and basically echoes Manuel's case for Transcend being town. I know Accountant has an issue with this slot, but I want them to truly consider whether they believe scum!Transcend is such a weak scum player so as to dodge questioning then replace out. I am strongly of the opinion that that's not Transcend as scum. I don't think Transcend as scum replaces out here, and he had the same idea as me about Norska's good post (evidenced by him saying he was town directly after it). Strong town. I think Loopdan needs to rely less on conftown for his cases, but that's more constructive criticism currently than a real issue.
Morning Tweet - I reviewed some of that scum game MT mentioned. Their play there was buddying and sort of passive at a glance. It's not a strong ride-or-die meta but it's good enough for me to feel their play here is town enough to be hard town in comparison.
Manuel - if thatsit flips scum this is townier than the rest. If thatsit flips town then this is a PoE, potentially with Loopdan meaning I had a wrong read on Transcend's ethics, or Norska. The push on Morning Tweet I wasn't a huge fan of, but honestly it's not exactly scum indicative on its own, and Accountant I think had a decent point that there were easier lynches to push. If it came to MT/Manuel I wouldn't know which to lynch, sorry.
Norska - One good post can be enough to discard a scumread, but everyone else is acting phenomenally town this game, so like I said, kudos to whoever the scumteam is if it's not the newbs at this stage. And if it's the newbs, you guys played the newbtown card fucking well. This is more PoE than anything.
thatsit - Again, this looks like lynchbait newbtown but there's no better lead for me to go off at this stage. If you're town I'm really sorry but the scumteam has been playing really well in that case.

VOTE: thatsit

That's back to L-1.

I'm comfortable with a hammer so far. I'll read up overnight and see what I can find in case I'm alive tomorrow. If we lynch the roleblocker then it was nice being in this game with you again Accountant, and it was nice seeing the rest of you for a brief period.

[JaeReed]

Accountant, would meta help you in this case? I can give two scum games of Transcend's fairly recently, I know as town he tends to do reaction reads quite a bit and sticks with them if nothing pings him as off about the person. One off-site and one on. I don't remember how much stock you place into meta but I feel like Transcend relies more on playing the gutread scum game as scum rather than the gutread town type. He also seems to revert to insults over anything useful when he's feeling like he's backed into a corner. I don't see that here.

https://epicmafia.com/topic/79723
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68870

The scumgames. Note the first one I've found to be finicky on mobile.

[JaeReed]

Since I'm at L-2 atm, I won't claim even if I get to L-1. I'll claim only if I see a bolded intent to hammer. We already have one PR outed; I don't want another PR dead within the next two days.

This is the only thing keeping me from voting Misa right now. I'd expect scum to read the thread more closely than

that

.

MT just took a train up in my townreads. I'm not sure where

to

exactly but this shit right here is the kind of stuff I don't expect to see from scum. Also MT was the only one to directly call out that 2 PRs had claimed up to this point which fits with the frustration side of things.

[JaeReed]

Manuel v. Tweet is TvT.

Manuel is town because I think scum!Manuel would sit on a lurker rather than push you. You're town for the same reasons Transcend is - you've been making consistently solid posts and your thought process is clear and I think oriented towards trying to identify and lynch scum. While it's not to say that scum can't make solid posts, I think it's much harder for scum to fake that kind of mindset. Scum trying to look town usually make posts that look good on the surface but that don't contribute much to actual scumhunting, but I didn't get the impression at your posts are shallow.

Furthermore, the easy way in which everyone else seems to be letting you two fight or focusing on your fight seems to me to be a sign of either apathy or scum who is more than happy to let two town members go at each other tooth and nail. In particular I think townies would try to push their own scumreads rather than try to make the decision into a false dichotomy of Manuel vs Tweet. This is why Misa's lack of scumreads is very concerning to me - I think she doesn't have any so she can go "well, I don't have anyone to push, so I'll just pick between Manuel and Tweet".

If I'm wrong on my townreads there is Manuel/Accountant potential.

[JaeReed]

Spoiler:

Hell of a first game. I'm confident that Acc and Transcend are town, and Char seems to be clear. After that, it gets kinda murky for me.

WCS is very erratic, jumping from people being conf town to conf scum and back again. But I'm starting to think that's just how he posts rather than anything nefarious.

Leaning town with Tweet for similar reasons to A and T; ie, she is asking questions and making reasonable judgements.

Feels like Misa is playing a very quiet devil's advocate. Seems like a lot of her posts are made just to deflate peoples lines of thought without really taking a stance herself. Although she did say in #352 she tends to be a 'support-class townie'. I don't know if that's a thing or not.

Got nothing on thatsit. Very low activity, not really pushing the discussion, but then again, neither have I. As a newbie, I share his sentiment in post #404 (not found) that it can be difficult to contribute, due to (for me at least) not yet having a grasp on the meta and techniques that are more familiar for experienced players. Whether thatsit's newbiness is genuine or a cover, I am not the one to judge.

Manuel is pretty neutral to me. Going over his ISO, there's nothing that really jumps out as particularly towny or scummy. I do wish he'd spell my name right though.

Putting that in order from most-town to least-town:
{Accountant, Charloux}
{Transcend}
{Morning Tweet}
{WCSBO, Manuel}
{thatsit}
{MisaTange}

VOTE: MisaTange, which puts him on L-2, I think.

Been rereading isos (and honestly been reading them like "What does scum have to gain by posting this?" as a last resort) and here are my results:

{Char, WCSBO}
{Accountant, Transcend, Norska}
{Morning Tweet}
{Manuel}
{thatsit}

Char is the uncc'd Doc and WCSBO has constantly been softing whatever the other PR is. So they're pretty much cleared.

Accountant

: I'll clarify I don't have a strong townlean on them. The first half of their iso is pretty bad imo since I'm not sure whether they're playing from a town perspective or an IC perspective. Posts like 42 (the meta post), 28, 45, 68, 172 feel like directing players what to feel rather than a genuine attempt to scumhunt. But then there's the second half. Posts like 187, 195, 282 and 293 (It's important to note that that post is what makes me feel the strongest about town!Accountant, not necessarily protecting our doctor, who Accountant mainly pushed).

Transcend

: I still feel decently about a town!Transcend. I understand his thought process throughout his iso and I agree with most of his points. Nothing that can't be faked by scum imo but I still feel that way about a town!Transcend.

Norska

: Townlean, but only because of 207 for reasons that other people have stated. Otherwise, all of their other posts are easily fakeable as scum. Also can be solved by posting more, but hey.

Morning Tweet

: I'll be honest and I shoddily put this on here because her posts are easily fakeable as scum as well but I'm exhausted.

Manuel

: Scumlean, but only because I don't see posts that can be easily as fakeable as scum, even with the argument.

thatsit

: To clarify: Slight scumread. My main problem with this person can generally can be solved by posting more, but I dislike 404. "Don't know what to contribute" when there was some soft back and forth between Norska and WCSBO at the time, so that there are plenty to comment on. Also, the early, vague fos on WCSBO just because he's talking a lot is weird.

VOTE: Thatsit

Sheep these two reads lists is kinda where I'm at rn. I think that'll net a town victory. Obviously, look at associates once you get a scum flip. If I'm around tomorrow I'll do ISO'ing and VCA. If not, that's my stance. Also not a fan of Morning Tweet kinda buddying up to me in 809.

[JaeReed]

VOTE: thatsit
His sudden activity early day 2 when he avoided posting the entire time at the end of day 1.
Starting the day with throwing shade on Charloux and Transcend.

Later he wants to look for scum in the ppl that didnt vote Misa instead of directly saying he thinks i am scum.
His reason for me being the scum in the non Misa votes (thatsit, Tweet, Manuel) is awful and when i question it he suddenly disappears again.

Later he posts a Prodge instead of answering questions or giving a readslist which i am still waiting for since the end of day 1.

Charloux (later replaced by JaeReed) claimed Doc day one when he was at L-3 and was frustrated about Accountant and Transcend (later replaced by Loopdan) pressuring him.
WCS was at L-2 (he was at L-1 for a few hours until Transcend unvoted)
WCS slipt PR a lot after Charlouxs claim and was killed night 1. He was cop.
A push on Misa formed for PoE reasoning. Later a counterwagon on Accountant was formed with Tweet, Manuel, Misa, WCS.
WCS switched back to Misa followed by Transcend and finaly hammered by Charloux. Misa was VT

That brings us to my case on your slot.
Nothing really happened day 2 mainly because we had to wait days for answers and people getting replaced because they werent interested in the game anymore.

Reads:
Transcend/Loopdan
Charloux/JaeReed, Tweet
Norska, Accountant
Thatsit/ThinkBig

Btw now i remember why i didnt play anymore newbiegames when i started playing on this side.
Its really annoying that people dont care about the game anymore and just replace out in the middle of day 2 wasting the whole day.
At least we have a considerate mod this time that extended the deadline.

Ok, why did you do this for tb and not me when I asked?

[JaeReed]

Also not a fan of Morning Tweet kinda buddying up to me in 809.

LOL Jae did you get paranoid about people with similar reads/thought processes to you after Nahdia's Mini

Not paranoid enough if Shadowrun mafia tells me anything.

[JaeReed]

Ok, why did you do this for tb and not me when I asked?

VOTE: thatsit
His sudden activity early day 2 when he avoided posting the entire time at the end of day 1.
Starting the day with throwing shade on Charloux and Transcend.

Later he wants to look for scum in the ppl that didnt vote Misa instead of directly saying he thinks i am scum.
His reason for me being the scum in the non Misa votes (thatsit, Tweet, Manuel) is awful and when i question it he suddenly disappears again.

Later he posts a Prodge instead of answering questions or giving a readslist which i am still waiting for since the end of day 1.

My case on thatsit.
He is most likely replaced though.
Time is pressing and we should decide on a lynch. Nolynch would only benefit scum.

@borkjerfkin: will the deadline be extended again when thatsit gets replaced?

@Loop: would you consider voting thatsit over Norska?

@JaeReed:
Accountant was at L-1 for a moment with
Tweet, Manuel, Misa, WCSBO on it.

WCS switched back to Misa followed by Transcend and Charloux (your slot) hammered.

Come again?

2 sentences compared to what you gave TB isn't comparable, but meh. w/e

[JaeReed]

Why has a no-resistance wagon on me blitzed to L-1 in 5 pages without anyone explaining why I'm scum or why Misa is town? I mean, everyone seems to be going off gut here, which is frustrating. I think scum is one of the people coasting to a mislynch against me pretending to "gut read" me as scum; because they know they won't have to provide any reasoning.

More importantly, why is Misa town?! Transcend, WCS, anyone? I don't need an elegant soliloquy on his obtownness, just something other than "idk he seems really town".

Not a fan of this reaction. Bleh.

[JaeReed]

Like, I can buy one person following their gut and switching votes from Misa to me, but 3-4 in a row, in rapid succession? I think at that point there's something not right going on there.

@WCS: Yes. I've stated my reasons for reading her as town and that hasn't changed.

Also not a fan of this.

[JaeReed]

A lot of posts that really don't accomplish anything but remind everyone that they are actively participating in the discussion.

This looks like more playstyle than alignment.

As for being a leader, well, I generally try to lead the town as IC, regardless of my alignment. I could show you some games where this happened, if you wish.

I don't like this post.

Can you go into detail on what you don't like here?

[JaeReed]

I don't see leading the town as the IC regardless of alignment being playing against your wincon if you're mafia. In fact, I'd argue that's playing to it. By leading the town you can influence the way others are viewing certain situations, and manipulate them into voting for who you want them to.

Leading the town is a playstyle thing. Some people prefer to lead and gain their reads that way, and others like to sit back and watch the flow more to gain their reads.

[JaeReed]

Norska, in post 680 you said you read your own ISO and thought you may have been hasty in giving Transcend a townread. Why? What about your own ISO is more telling about that to you than Transcend's ISO for you to have drawn that conclusion there?

[JaeReed]

859 is townposting ftr

[JaeReed]

697 makes me want to lynch tweet

716 you know as well as i do that conftown tends to slack off

[JaeReed]

No, but they do. Because as conftown you lack the perspective that is unique to having someone push on you. That's largely why I didn't give a shit in nahdia's mini normal where I should have, because I was new to being conftown and didn't realize exactly how much sway that gave me. I didn't realize how much it devalued my opinion to just sheep someone I thought was town.

It's hard being conftown. I can understand your frustration there too because I've been on the other fucking side as town where conftown hasn't paid attention at all and doesn't give a shit and it's like "why are you even in this game?!?!" but it's not something I feel is a valid complaint from you because you've seen it before. You know the mindset. If all it was is a complaint against that then fine but..urgh. It's something that is more to be addressed on a larger stage, sadly. And even then idunno that it would help :/

Norska, Accountant, never lynch.

[JaeReed]

haha ok. I still think you're most likely town, sadly.

I am gonna be real pissed at myself if i get fucked over by you again tbh. I don't think I'm gonna be this time tho. Your early game was pretty deep probing compared to your scumgame and the pic in response to my shit and jabbing at Charl + your responses to me have been pretty good.

I'm not honestly 100% on thatsit scum but if he's not scum I want you to triple check tweet. I think her early game was good compared to her scumgame but that could potentially be the learning curve. I think she's more likely town and I do want the time to delve deeper using double isos and vca but if I don't get the chance I'm leaving it up to you.

[JaeReed]

thanks smith for the sub and reading through and coming to the correct conclusions <3 I thought you were pretty obvtown but y'know... that was after Accountant killed me xP I think I reached the dead thread and actually said something to the effect of my death making Accountant scum lol.

Doesn't do any good to know that once I'm dead tho xP

smith I thought you did a good job honestly. I think it was just the foundation already being there that messed things up there.

[JaeReed]

Morning Tweet, you were right on the fucking money and that's amazing so props to you there.

Grats to Accountant and Manny for the win! <3

[JaeReed]

Yeah I don't think you could have done much more there?

Also I should know better than to ever go down saying never to vote Accountant after my first mini normal with them.

@Accountant you're not unable to self vote as scum!IC btw. It was the right move not to do so here, obviously, but I believe self hammering as scum!IC is fine as per http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _a_good_IC

pedit - yeah on this site apparently the only thing I have really going for me is that I can obvtown... STILL don't know how :/

[JaeReed]

I don't think I've ever played well as town as you did here

I either wave my dick around and get killed early because I'm unlynchable or get taken to lylo and lose. I can't scumhunt for fuck

LOL THIS IS SO ME. I relate to this.