It will depend on how they behave today. I think it can be hard to distinguish between newbie and scummy -- to use examples from our last game, ducks who seemed (to me) scum but was newbie and mainez who seemed newbie but was scum, but it's worth keeping an eye on them.
In post 108, saad wrote:people only wanna play as town, if i replace i'd likely get a scum slot from a guy who lurked because he flipped scum.
So what I'm reading from this is that Saad doesn't want to be mafia, he wants to be town, and that if he were mafia he would lurk until he was replaced. I disagree with his premise about what other people want to play, but do think that he believes it. Him not lurking is not evidence either way (because he could have been lying), but if he does start lurking after this I'll be more suspicious of him.
I think if we're dealing with two newbie scum, then it's 2 of [skold, saad, argos] (mostly by process of elimination on "newbie" and "scum"). We've only seen 9 posts from Skold so far, and only a few of substance. We've seen even less of Argos (just 2 posts). It is entirely possible they were sleeping or at work like singer during the entire 7 hour day, so complete null read on them.
House said something last game -- even though he was scum I think he was telling the truth about this part -- about a good way to distinguish IC town from IC scum, so I think we can fairly confidently wait and see what will happen with singer and how she plays this week. If singer is town then I do think we're dealing with 2 newbie scum. If singer is not town it is entirely too early to be guessing who her buddy is but probably one of the candidates for newbie scum.
Anyway, I'd trust your instincts about who to watch.
who even is our remaining SE? *checks* oh, Skold. But he's only been on the site for a couple months so he might still feel like a newer player? I looked over his completed games very briefly and I didn't find a completed scum game, so if he is scum then i'll count him in the newbie category.