Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[Revan]

My gut is telling me that GL is stretching. My gut has been pretty accurate lately.

[tojam2]

VOTE: EL

Rather them over GL for now.

[bowdown]

@bowdown I was townreading EL on page 2. Why do you believe that that read is still current? It looks like you're stretching now.

- You had that initial TR on lemon.

- You said that everyone in the game was easy to read except Titus and GL

- You called out Titus as obvious scum (presumably for reactions), you have tried to get GL and Jae lynched, and yet I never heard a peep out of you regarding EL until you voted.

Most damning though is when I asked you about your vote on lemon right after you voted you literally only said because it was a self-save and that's it. No comment saying that lemon is scummy, nothing trying to push for a lemon lynch. Don't try to go back and say that you had a scumread on lemon when you made that vote. No way.

I actually hate that you're on lemon.

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

You've said you townread lemon, you have defended lemon, you have never once said that lemon is scummy, and this certainly isn't a self-save.

VOTE: Revan

It is a self save, though.

[Revan]

I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.

[bowdown]

Two days until deadlijne.
It's the counter.
He doesn't townread EL.

Two days until deadline - Revan was just fine "self-saving" onto lemon who he had expressed zero suspicion on and I don't believe he actually scumread when he wasn't at L-1, but now that he is at the top of the tally wants to try to scumhunt?

Counter: He had two votes. Not like he was close to being lynched. Town who is actually invested in trying to find scum pushes scumreads. Revan did not.

TR of EL: see post above. If he didn't TR EL you'd think he would have just maybe pointed that out when I asked him about his vote?

[Titus]

If you need any convincing, just look at GL's vote on me.

Terrible logic.

Titus how does this read like a town post to you?

Why doesn't it to you?

Oh wait, you're not likely town

[Titus]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

Indicator, not slip.

[bowdown]

I only have a slight TR on EL, so I don't mind.

I don't know if I believe you or not. Let's pretend that you do have just a slight townread there.

Why the heck when Lemon is at 3 and you are at 2 and you are scumreading Jae and GL do you think the best course of action is to vote up your slight townread to L-1 and not vote/push on one of your scumreads?

[JaeReed]

It's more cause for concern if Revan didn't vote his counter.

If Revan didn't vote his counter there it would have probably had me whiteknight him for lack of opportunism, because I hardly ever see that flip red.

Then you have been in some wierd as fuck games.

Not really? It's quite simple.

Anyone can vote their counter in order to save themselves.
Town are more likely to vote away from their counter if they strongly believe scum is elsewhere, because their goal isn't to save themselves, it's to find scum.

Some people are just survivalistic no matter their alignment, so it's not like Revan voting his counter is inherently scummy, it's just not townie. Where it would have been more townie to try to push an actual scumread.

[Revan]

I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.

[JaeReed]

Revan:

Do you townread EL?
Do you scumread myself and/or GuiltyLion?

[Titus]

It's more cause for concern if Revan didn't vote his counter.

If Revan didn't vote his counter there it would have probably had me whiteknight him for lack of opportunism, because I hardly ever see that flip red.

Then you have been in some wierd as fuck games.

Not really? It's quite simple.

Anyone can vote their counter in order to save themselves.
Town are more likely to vote away from their counter if they strongly believe scum is elsewhere, because their goal isn't to save themselves, it's to find scum.

Some people are just survivalistic no matter their alignment, so it's not like Revan voting his counter is inherently scummy, it's just not townie. Where it would have been more townie to try to push an actual scumread.

In a short deadline, eventually it becomes I know I am town, so a I will vote the other guy.

With less than 2 days, a large scumread player isn't getting a wagon going.

[bowdown]

I was voting my scumread. You're really grasping for straws here.

Forgot that you were already voting Jae. I really don't think I'm grasping at straws - you switched your vote off of a scumread to a slight townread for a "self save" with two freaking votes on you. I don't see how that is towny.

[Revan]

I believe EL will flip 60% green 40% red.

I scumread both of you.

[bowdown]

Jae, explain how at that point in the game, Revan and Lemon are each other's counters with only two votes on Revan and three on Lemon.

[JaeReed]

In a short deadline, eventually it becomes I know I am town, so a I will vote the other guy.

With less than 2 days, a large scumread player isn't getting a wagon going.

The bolded is where the lack of opportunism comes in. If you have a townread on the other player or a strong scumread elsewhere, and decide to push that instead of your counterwagon, that indicates you're more likely to be town because you know even if you're lynched it's not making it too much harder on your team. At least earlier on in the game, where town has the numbers to afford mislynches.

[JaeReed]

Jae, explain how at that point in the game, Revan and Lemon are each other's counters with only two votes on Revan and three on Lemon.

I'm not entirely sure what you want here?

At that point I'd just voted Revan, which had him at the same amount of votes as EL. You voted EL pushing her up to L-2, but the two main wagons that were being looked at there was EL/Revan. Therefore Revan and EL are counter to each other.

If you're thinking about the amount of votes try thinking the other way. EL needed 2 more votes to be lynched and Revan needed 3 more votes to be lynched with 4 players yet to vote on one of the two wagons. That said, he still could have gotten those 3 of those 4 (I don't think tojam would have voted me) and maybe convinced someone off EL on to me with a deadline no lynch threat.

[bowdown]

I wanted the theory/thoughts on counters and self saving. I feel like Revan and I started off disagreeing whether that was an appropriate self save, argued around in a circle, and made our way back to whether that's an okay self save vote or not. If that's a reasonable/okay self-vote, i need to reread Revan (especially the last few pages)

[JaeReed]

Self saving votes aren't inherently scummy or townie imo. But that's more of a tell discussion.

It all depends on whether the thread consensus might have made it feel like a threat to him. In this case I'd argue it's perfectly viable that he was starting to worry he'd be lynched and preferred EL over himself as a self saving thing.

[GuiltyLion]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

Indicator, not slip.

???

this is a bullshit dodge. Either it's indicative and a slip, or it isn't. You can't have it both ways

[Titus]

and respond to my question about the associative you're trying to draw between me and EL, please. At the very least - I want you to reaffirm or deny that you are arguing that EL scumslipped by saying she didn't want to "bus" me.

Indicator, not slip.

???

this is a bullshit dodge. Either it's indicative and a slip, or it isn't. You can't have it both ways

No. An indicator is more likely than not to come from scum. A scumslip MUST come from scum

[Titus]

My pc died. This game has priority

[nancy]

I'm back. First things first, I retract 376 and apologize for a crappy post. Cheap way to "out" oneself as town. It's relevant however that my scumread of Lemon and especially of Lemon/Jae depended partially on certain private communications having taken place (e.g., 168). Titus is right about pregame coaching.

On Revan: this personality type has a tendency to seem scummy even when they aren't (kind of similar to how EL's personality has a tendency to seem townie when they aren't). I'm not going to join this wagon today.

On D1 lynch: I should play to win the game. It isn't at all clear how to interpret this, however. Do I lynch who I think is scummiest or who I think will give us the best chance of catching scum down the track? Lynching Lemon would certainly free up headspace to look elsewhere, and she doesn't post or scumhunt much - only 2 more posts than mod - so if she flips Town it isn't as though we'd be losing a great deal. I'm kind of disinclined to lynch her though, because she's been giving off at least

some

towntells recently, and there are better options immediately available: GuiltyLion and Titus.

I'm just going to bank on either GL or Titus being scum. And not both. GL has contributed pretty much nothing all day, but I'm also pretty unimpressed by how little Titus came up with after the naked vote on EL, so either makes sense to me.

Which results in a lynching priority for me of: GL, Titus, EL, Agent Sparkles, bowdown, revan

VOTE: GuiltyLion

Feel free to try to convince me to hammer or not hammer Lemon, but I'd prefer GL/Titus.

[tojam2]

VC please mod.

[nancy]

Want to unvote tojam? You're giving scum the hammer right now.