a. 1:11 Vanilla
85%. Mostly a shot in the dark, but 5 mislynches is HARD
b. 2:10 Nightless
96&%. Eight mislynches is HARDER
c. 3:9 Double Day
67% Four mislynches still favors town, but is a little easier to handle. It's close to the general standard of 3 mislynches in a 12 player game
d. 4:8 PairedLovers
Mafia only need 2 mislynches, but each mafia lynch increases that by one...But I'd say town actually ends up having a 45%ish chance
2. In each setup, what does X need to be in order for a 10:X setup to be as close to a 50-50 balance (each side has a 50% chance of winning) as possible?
a. Vanilla
10:50. Still going with 5x town
b. Nightless
10:25. Need quite a few mislynches, but there's a lot of soak/spoiler]
c. PairedLovers
d. PairedLovers Nightless
e. PolyLovers
f. Treestump
g. White Flag
h. Double Day
3. Put the following setups in order from lowest Town EV to greatest Town EV (least likely for the Town to win to most likely):
e. 4:7 Nightless
a. 2:5 PairedLovers
c. 3:9 Treestump
g. 5:12 PolyLovers
b. 2:10 Double Day
f. 4:8 PairedLovers Nightless
h. 5:64 White Flag
d. 3:32 Vanilla
So, how bad did I do?
EDIT: OOPS...let me fix the numbers...I misunderstood...and can't read.
c. PairedLovers
10:25. 2.5x seems best.
d. PairedLovers Nightless
10:16 easily. The mislynches are always doubled in nightless, but 10:13 is a bit...bad.
e. PolyLovers
10:16/18. It's tricky. One good lynch for town, and BOOSH. But you don't want to make it too easy for mafia. 3-4 mislynches is good .
f. Treestump
10:30. MAYBE 10:25. You get a lot of opportunity to lynch townies, and it's harder to determine number of mislynches.
g. White Flag
10:60. 18 mislynches to win. Town needs 9 good lynches...it should be interesting.
h. Double Day
10:25 2.5x is best IIRC
3. Put the following setups in order from lowest Town EV to greatest Town EV (least likely for the Town to win to most likely):
e. 4:7 Nightless
a. 2:5 PairedLovers
c. 3:9 Treestump
g. 5:12 PolyLovers
b. 2:10 Double Day
f. 4:8 PairedLovers Nightless
h. 5:64 White Flag
d. 3:32 Vanilla
So, how bad did I do?
EDIT: OOPS...let me fix the numbers...I misunderstood...and can't read.