Mafiascum.net

12 Townies

4 Mafia

Players are randomly divided into 4 rooms (neighborhoods) of 4 players each.

The game starts with 3

moving phases

, that last 7 days. In each phase, players have to vote to move someone from their room to another room. Each room has to send 1 player to another room. Each room may only send a player to a room they hadn't sent a player to before. This means that, after 3 moving phases, each room has 4 players yet again. Plurality vote applies. If multiple people have the same amount of votes on them at deadline, the player who first achieved the most votes in that tie will be sent to another room.

Then there is a

room lynch

. Everyone votes an entire room to be lynched. This phase lasts 14 days.

Then, the game advances to

night phase.

Mafia may kill townies, equal to the amount of other mafia members they lost in the previous phase.

After that, nightless lynch mechanics apply.

Basically, town should use the main thread to coordinate who sends who to what room, so they can lynch the scummiest room. I don't expect a high accuracy on that, but if it happens, the amount of kills changes, which should reduce swing.

Thoughts?

This seems like a larger version of Triplicate Mafia tbh

one of the tied players will be randomly

Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.

This is one of those weird game that I don't have to run computer simulation:

4 Towns Evicted : 7-5 (EV:2/12)

3 Towns Evicted : 7-4 (EV:3/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 7-3 (EV:4/10)

1 Towns Evicted : 7-2 (EV:5/9)

0 Towns Evicted : 7-1 (EV:6/7)

Part 1 of 2

In post 1, Gamma Emerald wrote:This seems like a larger version of Triplicate Mafia tbh

Well, triplicate doesn't lynch the whole room. It's also not certain there is scum in each room.

In post 2, Realeo wrote:

one of the tied players will be randomly

Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.

First voted for it is!

Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%

Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%

Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%

Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%

Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%

Total EV:

18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%

Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win

I am sorry. This does not work.

If I calculate your last line, I find 15% which is admittedly still bad, but more doable with changes.
Would changing 1 maf to a townie change much?

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%

I thought so, though not by that much
Setup is now 12-4

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%

Although, I suspect it would be higher IRL.

So possibly mostly balanced?

Possibly town sided. The problem with Nightless Vanila is you cant lynch obv town.

In post 5, Realeo wrote:18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%

3.02% + 12.35% + 12.08% + 3.33% = 30.78%

I'm dissapointed real.

But your other calculation is correct

I'm also curious how you calculated the probability of lynching a certain amount of townies

What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%

I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.

For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)

In post 14, Realeo wrote:What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%

I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.

For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)

ok thanks

Letting scum nightkill the members they lost +1 gives the following (I used realo's numbers for this)

8.13+16.1+10.85+1.95=37%

which is maybe fine, but maybe just a bit too scumsided again.

Another, admittedly less elegant, solution would be to give scum a 1-shot dayvig to be used at any time during the nightless lynches, except for lylo.