Team Mafia 2018: Inventions Mafia Day 4

[GuiltyLion]

hey everyone! looking forward to a fun game with you all

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

I refuse to play with Cabd.
Furthermore I made it clear before the games started which game I was playing in to avoid him joining my game

where did you make it clear what game you were playing in? can I go see that for myself?

[GuiltyLion]

To be fair that's not really that clear, you could have been joining smith's normal and I don't know how well Cabd knows you to assume you'd pick ether's over mhsmith's.

I'm having a hard time seeing how any of this relevant to anyone's alignment except maybe besides Reck being town tbh

the swap is obviously not AI though considering that if there were an issue with one of the player's alignments it would have been resolved before their team picked role pms

yah I almost thought RC's post about normals was sarcastic in that context.

I'm pretty sure Fire dislikes playing scum, and I definitely would not put it past that team to swap to create WIFOM about RC's alignment in this game. And if you think it's not AI then can you explain the townread on Reck?

[GuiltyLion]

pedit: Guilty if it's not clear from the above I dont think scum really have any reason to prod at it because most people arent going to follow a push there for that reasoning seriously if they know Raybells is town. it's a town line of questioning it's just really stupid

what'd you think of 55 and 61?

I kind of agree I guess because I'd be scared in general to come after RC as scum, but I don't know Reck at all. gonna ask if Dino or kmd have Reck experience

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Anenin

smart did you have anyone specific in mind when you posted 119?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Anenin

smart did you have anyone specific in mind when you posted 119?

I mean, me but other than that, no.

Nice to see you again btw. It's been a while

yah you too!

okay so what was the point of that comment then?

and while we're at it @chesskid why didn't you respond to smart's 107 or 119?

p-edit: Aneninen how do we confirm katyusha's reasons for joining?

[GuiltyLion]

and also Anenien if you've conluded katyusha's comments were null based on that explanation then why were you thinking that they might have been AI in the first place? if scum!katyusha made a throwaway comment about being the weak link (presumably for towncred), and then explained it by saying she just joined TM for fun, I'm not following how that moves the original comment from "possibly indicative" to "null"

[GuiltyLion]

pedit: The point of my comment? It just came to my head when I was about to leave the thread and saw the OP again. i have a bad habit of just posting whatever comes to mind which is why i can spam if im not careful

I was referring to smart's comment that I quoted

[GuiltyLion]

and while we're at it @chesskid why didn't you respond to smart's 107 or 119?

are you reading rhe thread

oops apparently not, missed 122 the first time around

probably a sign that it's time for bed

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry for not being here yesterday

I have a more relaxed day today so I'm going to catch up when I have bits of time, I'll post thoughts tonight. Mathdino says we need to give the hider to Creature because he's obvious town and that the "give to a scumread" idea is bullshit, won't work because "everyone is full of themselves" and no one can agree on anything. I've been getting a high level summary on the RC/chesskid/mastina/Reck drama from him as well but I want to actually dig through the game and bounce some ideas off of him before I do anything

elect: Creature

[GuiltyLion]

because he's a tryhard who is allowed to play mafia at his job

[GuiltyLion]

OKAY I am here, finally all caught up and ready to e n g a g e

First a Smart response, which is actually perfect timing now that I p-edit and see that he's here:

okay so what was the point of that comment then?

This question is phrased in a way that makes it difficult to not give an awkward answer. There was no POINT per se; I just said what I was thinking.

I don’t think it should be awkward to explain why you posted something, it wasn’t clear to me whether you were trying to poke chesskid or defend Anen or push Hindu to give more reads or what. I wanted to hear your reasons for the post. If you didn’t really have a point and were just dropping thoughts into the thread you’re entirely allowed to say that, why would that be awkward? And what would have been better phrasing for my question?

[GuiltyLion]

Next, on the hider election – I don’t think hider should be used as an investigative targeting a scumread. I mostly agree with Mastina’s 856 that the way it should be used is given to a consensus townread to avoid a NK and lock another town. Two nigh conftowns alive seems more limiting to endgame scum trajectories than even a 1 for 1 trade, especially with future inventions in play on D2 and beyond as anyone cleared by hide is an easy vote for D2 election. My team is still in full agreement that Creature is the best choice but I am fine with giving it to Reck

if

he doesn’t announce his target to the thread as two dead townies is literally the worst possible outcome and any plan with a known target seems insanely short-sighted for that exact reason

Mathdino agrees with this, he's been telling me to elect Creature since pregame lmao. but @katy if you want more I can translate for him, he's online still

p-edit: okay first take I feel that Smart, might have to edit my upcoming reads post

[GuiltyLion]

alright so as for reads, I want a CK lynch first and foremost today

VOTE: chesskid

I'm not at

all

feeling ck’s push on mastina and the fact that he’s holding the game hostage for it looks like scum. ck’s reasons basically amount to 364 (misrep), 369 (meta is trash, but hey here’s a barely cogent use of it), and 446 (worst post of all – misrep of what Mastina said and a bs point even if it were exactly what she had said). The rest is noise, snark, and bullying. I don’t believe a town!ck could possibly believe that this particular scumread is worth 400 posts of spamming the thread, feels a lot more like a manipulative play for control of the game as RC has said.

Other scattered thoughts relevant to a few threads of conversation:
-Reck is town, his play reads town and the amount of townreads after the early pressure make me think there’s scum spewing him as town as well
-BYF is town, I don’t see scum motive in his posting, doubt he would have taken a scum role PM, and if he did take a scum role PM he'd be being coached and not fumbling around like he has a few times here. Like in what world does Dunnstral give BYF a scum role and then leave him out to dry? I need much more from Hindu and Reck on the scumreads there
-Speaking of Hindu, he’s pretty meh, can compromise there if we're not doing chesskid. Lots of grandstanding about how this game’s gone to shit but his efforts to defuse haven’t actually done anything and the Yoshi compromise angle is terrible. And now a bunch of townreads are moving there which I think is a promising direction for the game
-personally I don’t like anything Srceenplay has posted but Mathdino is insisting that he wouldn’t have taken a scum role PM and that his play is consistent with his town meta.

here's a mostly agreed upon reflection of my team's reads, I’m not going to write up explanations on all of them but happy to elaborate in detail on any of them.

{Creature, Reck, Cheeky, RC}
{BYF, Mastina, Anenien}
{Primate, Katyusha}
{Hindu, Srceenplay, Smart}
{CK}

with EP to fit somewhere in there once he starts getting involved. Speaking of that, chess trying to push EP and BYF town in 378 was ridiculous as well and I can’t believe anyone let alone everyone let him get away with that

also p-edit: Math is now barking at me that giving hider to a scum on purpose is insanely stupid and "Cheeky is town for this horseshit alone" Is anyone actually against giving Creature the hide? Does anyone scumread him? Why would we not want to have Creature + Creature's clear alive on D2?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't remember specifics other than that his defense of me was sound and insightful.

Smart if you're town, it's super easy for scum to write sound and insightful defenses of you. Why is his defense something that can't come from scum!Hindu?

[GuiltyLion]

Is it bad that I don't want you or Kat taking the hider because I don't want to try to play this game without you

again, the hider should be hiding behind likely town and survive to provide a clear. innos are better than guilties, making someone hider in no way means that they die

@katyusha did you still want more on Math's hider theory thoughts btw? anything in particular? He's been writing a bunch of stuff in The Discord about how having 2 confirmed townies alive on D2 townsides the setup and there's more risk in giving hider to a problematic slot or openly selecting targets. he did say earlier we could settle on just taking Reck up on the hide behind chesskid plan as a matter of policy if it gets rid of "drama llamas". Overall though his main position is that everyone is scumclaiming by not electing Creature because there's no town incentive not to

[GuiltyLion]

like i agree with the logic in getting a guaranteed result, and if scum find having two conftown to be a difficult obstacle they can always shoot whoever is being cleared (

i'm assuming the target will be crumbed or even outright claimed, if this is a bad assumption let me know

)

. im not sure if scum will deliberately try to pick a nightkill target tonight based on who would be a plausible hide target in any scenario so i dont know if not knowing the actual result part is an issue or not

basically i kind of want a more clear counter argument i guess? im shit with mechanics and my teammates arent strong in that regard so someone like mathdino or davesaz is absolutely someone i want to reach out to

ah I think the main thing is this bolded section, he's of the opinion (and I agree) that when the hider is known they should never broadcast their target in any way, the low risk high reward play is to aim for two confirmed townies the next day. if you assume town lynch on D1 there's still a 77% chance of the hider picking town, higher if hider has good reads and they aren't being forced to give them. When you look at a game state where Creature's alive D2 with a clear that narrows scum's mislynch trajectories further, it seems like pretty clearly the best thing to go for instead of trying to land a coinflip guilty where assuming the hider is town then in the best case scenario they're automatically dead as a result and the more likely scenario is you just have two dead townies on D2, even before mentioning the worthless case where scum get the hider and just "clear" whoever they were forced to target.

also, mathdino wants me to ask exactly how you know that he is good at mechanics? He says he's never played with you or any of your teammates

[GuiltyLion]

Well I can't seem to find the MD posts but I know it was spoken about in Surrep, but Elli has a beta program where you basically feed it a lot of meta information from past games and it finds various meta tells.

I was super skeptical this thing existed until he showed me how it cleared vonflare and caught transcend scum in Surrep after the game

Anyway long story short during game prep Elli and I ran some more popular etc posters including Mastina.

In addition to my scumread, and I wasn't even gonna do this since I think it's kinda lame, somewhere in her posting she dropped a sure thing scumtell.

I cannot and will not reveal it because I don't want to get murdered by Elli, but I can assure you with every fiber of my being that mastina is scum.

Now that's fine if you dont believe me, but given how RC is playing we aren't getting anywhere, so one of the following 2 needs to happen and I need promises in blood from the game they will.

Lynch Mastina If scum, lynch RC. Hider stays away from the entire situation.

Lynch chesskid. If town, lynch Mastina. If Mastina scum, lynch RC. Hider again stays away from the entire situation.

Unless you elaborate what the AI says that the scumtell is, I don't see a reason to believe this. If it makes mastina lockscum in a Team Mafia game, doesn't town!chesskid owe it to the rest of his team to do everything he can to convince the rest of the players in this game that it's a guaranteed scumlynch? Why is keeping a scumtell a secret worth more than winning this game?

This would retroactively explain your confidence in the read but I don't like how you're being cagey about actually enumerating what the exact scumtell is so that it can be discussed. We want the tell and more of your reasons for hiding it for so long. You can't claim an infallible scumtell yet also refuse to share it

[GuiltyLion]

has anyone kept track of the Reck elect vote count? I'm fine with moving there but he might be close to majority and I want to get a mod VC in in between for recordkeeping

I'll be back later tonight with more

@Hindu - this is the best possible time to share the info in full, to use it to win a game in a big sitewide tournament. If you don't demand to know what the tell is then anyone with access to Elli's program can just lie and make up this reasoning whenever they want. Imagine an ego like RC claiming access to this program to fake guilties whenever he wants

[GuiltyLion]

Like yes I want to win but I've laid it out as plainly as I can.

you really haven't, you've just asserted that this scumtell exists.

has Elli ever lied about results in past games to his advantage as scum?

[GuiltyLion]

read "can" as am able to.

And no, not to my knowledge, Elli hasn't been scum in many games since coming back. Why not ask your team if they've experienced it if you seem to doubt its efficiency?

see this is bullshit because Mathdino already told me that Ellibereth has openly and explicitly admitted to doing this in sitechat. I discussed this with them prior to posting and was curious to see whether you'd be honest about how one can easily manipulate this as scum.

you even added the "not to my knowledge" in there because you knew you could be called on this

[GuiltyLion]

@RC the AI definitely exists and has worked before. chesskid's results as applied in this game are what's in question

[GuiltyLion]

only have time for one brief post so trying to organize a bit here:

Invention Vote

1-shot Hider: Target a player at night you will hide them making you immune from being targetted by night actions. However if your target is not town aligned or is killed you will die as well.

With 15 alive it takes 8 to elect a player.

xRECKONERx (5)

- xRECKONERx, chesskid3, BigYoshiFan, Hinduragi, CheekyTeeky

Creature(3)

- GuiltyLion, Katyusha, Srceenplay

RadiantCowbells (2)

- mastina, RadiantCowbells

Not Voting (5)

- Aneninen, Something_Smart, Primate, Errantparabola, Creature

if we're not doing Creature I'm fine with Reck having the hider and hiding behind RC or whoever he wants. If he's elected, I would strongly prefer that he not actually make it clear to the thread who he's hiding behind. If he dies then RC is likely getting lynched on D2 anyway but if RC is town then I don't want scum getting a guaranteed free double kill. Reck it's absolutely better to hide behind some low key townread of yours to clear them and deal with RC/chesskid drama through lynches and day play, if RC is town then declaring that you're hiding behind him is easy double kill for scum.

elect: xRECKONERx

also I absolutely loved the video

Day 1, VC 10

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

mastina(4)

- chesskid3, Srceenplay, CheekyTeeky, xRECKONERx

Hinduragi(2)

- Katyusha, Aneninen

chesskid3(2)

- GuiltyLion, RadiantCowbells

xRECKONERx(1)

- mastina

Something_Smart(1)

- Primate

Creature(1)

- BigYoshiFan

BigYoshiFan(1)

- Hinduragi


Not Voting (3): Something_Smart, Errantparabola, Creature

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-02-04 21:00:00)

I see Smart and Creature as likely mastina voters based on expressed scumreads in their ISOs, which gets the wagon up to six
Likely not mastina voters based on townreads presented in thread: Katyusha, Anenien, BYF
Hindu I can't tell, he keeps saying chess/RECK town but also that he's not feeling mastina scum, wants to look elsewhere.

Hindu -

are you strictly opposed to mastina lynch today or will you compromise there? Take a hard yes/no stance on this please. Why aren't you sheeping your townreads onto the leading wagon?

So this means we need Primate or Errantparabola to show up and vote there, or some number of Katy/Anen/BYF/RC/myself to compromise on mastina. If we get to crunch time and no other lynch is possible then Mastina lynch is most likely outcome as it stands.

If Mastina is town I think there's one scum between chesskid/Srceenplay and there's probably a scum holding out to deadline vote it so the wagon doesn't grow too fast (Smart most likely pick here), and another scum either WKing or in the inactives

If Mastina is scum I doubt anyone is bussing her at the moment, but maybe a partner positioning to do so if necessary (Hindu, Smart again)

The fact that Primate/EP haven't been around is kinda fucking with the gamestate a bit currently regardless of their alignment, I don't think a mastina counterwagon has ever really felt possible this game outside of that brief Hindu flare-up which I would like to try to look at again when I have time to go back and find those votes

I'd like some more focused commentary and hard stances on whether people believe chess' "cop guilty", and why they are voting where they are as a result. It really feels like there's a lot of empty posts in the last 15 pages or so and people are just posting shit without game-advancing. That's not unique to RC/chesskid either.

Also I am gonna ask some people to see if I can get sitechat logs to back up Mathdino's point that Elli has acknowledged it's a strat to lie about the AI as scum. If he and chesskid are as tight as chesskid says, there's no reason to believe that chesskid wouldn't already have thought about this as well. Which is why I want more stances on whether people believe his claimed guilty.

[GuiltyLion]

You feel town, chesskid feels scum, mastina feels scum.

was basing it on this - are you saying you'd prefer to lynch chesskid over mastina?

[GuiltyLion]

then RC is likely getting lynched on D2 anyway

can you elaborate on how you got here when very few people have expressed interest in RC scum even when assuming mastina scum

if in hypothetical universe where Reck gets the hider and dies N1 and RC is alive D2, then my assumption was that he died hiding behind RC because I thought I remembered the latest 'deal' being centered around that.

having skimmed back to double check, I don't see Reck saying he would hide behind RC like I thought he had, I must have gotten confused about one of the deals. Probably when the discussion was around RC getting the hider instead. there's been too many deals proposed and aborted

[GuiltyLion]

Also correct me if I'm wrong but you had Hindu in your scumpool, why is he the person you're trying to work out a compromise with?

where do you see me trying to compromise with him?

getting someone to take Actual Stances is not working out a compromise with them

[GuiltyLion]

actually I see how you could interpret my post that way now

when I said "will you compromise there" I wasn't asking Hindu on my own behalf, I was asking "compromise" in the sense of "if push comes to shove and the Mastina wagon doesn't die". The main question is why he's not voting there already

[GuiltyLion]

because it's the leading wagon and chesskid has made it the central point of this day

like if BYF is his desired lynch he's not selling it to Chesskid/RECK very hard

p-edit: exactly

[GuiltyLion]

I'm trying to get everyone's reads on the gamestate and what's been happening in between the dozens of pages of useless slapfights. I'm less concerned with pushing my own reads and more concerned with getting everyone with fewer than 150 posts to actually express readable opinions and content on the shit that's been happening. There are 12 other players in this game not named RC/chesskid and my free time to read/post is not unlimited like the both of yours so I'm trying to dive into things that matter (who gets the hider, does each player believe chesskid, which wagons are happening versus which ones are not and people's stances on them) and draw out content from them

it's already been covered that I thought Reck had announced intent to hide behind you and I was trying to argue that the hider target should be ambiguous. Since I was mistaken and Reck never actually said that he would hide behind you, the rest of that paragraph doesn't even matter. don't really see at all how that's "setting you up" as a mislynch

and lol at the idea that you are not a controversial slot, especially if Mastina flips scum

why are you defending Hindu now before Hindu has even posted? I'm not arguing that Hindu is scum playing sub-optimally, I'm saying idk what Hindu is doing or thinking and I'd like to hear him explain it himself

[GuiltyLion]

I see Smart and Creature as likely mastina voters based on expressed scumreads in their ISOs, which gets the wagon up to six
Likely not mastina voters based on townreads presented in thread: Katyusha, Anenien, BYF
Hindu I can't tell, he keeps saying chess/RECK town but also that he's not feeling mastina scum, wants to look elsewhere.

Hindu - are you strictly opposed to mastina lynch today or will you compromise there? Take a hard yes/no stance on this please. Why aren't you sheeping your townreads onto the leading wagon?

in the original context, there's absolutely none of me asserting that Hindu has scum motivation. I am considering it but I am not pushing it. It's an explanation for Hindu's stances that I find plausible but not something I'm actively making a case for bc I still feel like my reads aren't developed. Let's see what Hindu says.

I do agree RC can't be in LyLo because he's too dangerous as scum and wouldn't make sense to be there if he was actually town.

Although, if I'm right on mastina/Katyu, his reads are so bad that maybe scum won't kill him as a liability.

But yes generally I agree that RC can't make lylo regardless of alignment unless we have some solid results

hider behind RC is also ok as the doublekill doesnt cost us anything

Ok cool thanks reck

^this is probably the sequence of posts that prompted me to assume that Reck was planning on hiding behind RC. I didn't go back and double check when I made my first post

[GuiltyLion]

Cheeky I saw you asked me for reads, they haven't changed much since 1515, Anenien might have dropped down a tier, Smart may have moved up a tier. I've loosely skimmed a few pages since yesterday but need to digest the latest

Mathdino pinged me to respond to this:

GuiltyLion as well, since we spoke earlier and you/MathDino have knowledge I would appreciate your commitment as well, should I die first that you will lynch Mastina into RC

I can commit to this. If you're town and not lying about the tell then we would trust it

[GuiltyLion]

Can I seriously advocate we hammer reck for hider and GL for scum before Chesskid comes back on so he doesn't throw another tirade and add another couple hundred posts to the thread?

uh yeah no because I just showed up and it's actually absurd that you're trying to push a flashwagon on me in the span of less than one RL day for reasons that are entirely based on the activity of this game

p-edit: lmao
I have some posts to reply to first

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - Why has smart moved up and Aneninen down? Can you hive me a brief reason why you TR both Reck and Mastina?

So I've been trying to sort Smart because I've misread him in past games and I feel he can be lynch-baity as town, he has a posting style that chronically pings me for things that almost always wind up being NAI. but I've felt his answers to my questions were obstinately townish in a way that is hard for scum to fake, like in his response to me in 2092 instead of basically just giving me a direct answer to whether he'd vote Mastina today or whether he'd prefer to lynch CK, he's sticking to his guns about how he's not letting the drama and his leans dictate where he's gonna vote. I feel that's a nuanced and less likely angle for scum to take and his reply to that post was pretty much instantaneous in real time.

Aneninen I think someone pointed this out earlier, the way he's been giving ISOs and reads felt a bit detached from being involved in the actual narratives of the game and avoiding committing to a real trajectory. And I didn't like the way he pushed back on chesskid about the program, it felt more like he had a prior goal of discrediting the notion of the AI scumtell. And I may have missed it but I feel like his posts about the program were also missing his teammates opinions - those are some experienced and popular and intelligent players on his team, I think they would have opinions about it that they would discuss with town!Anenien before his 2117 and 2159. Maybe that discussion did happen in the background but as far as I can tell he doesn't mention any of his team's opinions on it. I still overall think he's not that scummy but these things are making me less confident than I had been

Reck basically there's just been a vast majority of his posts were it's felt like his goal was to get things done and advance the game. A lot of the various deal proposals and interactions with chesskid/RC, I don't see incentive for scum!Reck to actively try to producitvely sort that shit out when he could instead just sit back a little bit and let chaos reign. Mastina has mostly pinged me as a scum!driven wagon because I still haven't really seen compelling reasons to scumread her (other than ck's "guilty" which he apparently cannot actually explain) and because the posts and posts of bizarre self-meta and complete self-absordedness in her catchups is almost too anti-survivalist in a sense. like if Mastina is genuinely trying to play to a scum wincon and survive I'm not seeing that in her ISO whatsoever, it seems more just like "pants on head" town, to borrow a phrase. If this is actually her scumplay it's about as far from "God" status as I can imagine

[GuiltyLion]

to address this "Minicase" on me

Minicase

1)

Guiltylion's iso has a lot of asking questions and not really following up on them, like he doesn't really go anywhere until the chesskid wagon he stays very off to the side,.

2)

Don't like the way he talked about me, I stand by having the same feelings that Hindu did

3)

Really feel like him hyping me up as controversial didn't fit the atmosphere of the thread at all given that only chesskid thought I was scum

4)

He took 5 questions to pry out of Chesskid the fact that you can make up elli-tell guilties as scum which seems pretty self evident

5)

completely discrediting the Hindu townread on Something_Smart by saying that scum can make insightful and sound defenses feels not!town

6)

Generally had a bad feeling about him the whole game and think this is a good lynch

1)

- It's been hard for me to follow up on things because I only have an hour or two to post a day and then when I come back to the thread there's 10-15 more pages of things that have happened since then. I have followed up on a few interactions in real time when I can. Also, "doesn't really go anywhere until the chesskid wagon" - if this is referring to the first 1500 posts of the game up until I made my vote in 1515, let me just point you to the calendar days involved. The game started on Sunday night (the 21st), I was around and posting but it was RVS/early stage and so I didn't have a foot in the game. Monday the 22nd was a very busy day for me, I don't believe I even signed onto site that day. Tuesday, I posted a quick checkin 1066, and then actually caught up and put content into the thread that night, which is my 1498, 1506, and 1515.

2)

- repeat for me what exactly you don't like about what I did. Is this separate from point #3?

3)

- It is pretty clearly relevant to the atmosphere of the thread, considering now there are multiple players deciding to divebomb you with the hider and that chesskid has been insisting that you are lynched if mastina flips scum. Further, it doesn't matter how many players are saying something, what matters is who in particular is saying things and how much control of the town they have.

4)

- the point is not that you can make up Elli-tells as scum, the point was to see how chesskid would acknowledge and address that fact. What did you think of the fact that he originally dodged the point of my question and tried to turn it onto me ("ask your teammates about its efficiency")? and if you're still scumreading him then how does this interaction also make me scum? or was your scumread on chesskid just for convenience?

5)

- Do you disagree with my point? Is it not easy for scum to write convincing defenses of their "townreads"?

6)

- This doesn't make me scum

I'd also like anyone around and voting me to rephrase in their own terms why I'm scum.

Okay GL. If you're town, show me that.

what is this? It's not my job to towntell to you, it's my job to sort other players and your job to read me correctly. I can already feel you pushing the "GL's play was so inactive and poor that he had to be policy lynched even if he were town" RC garbage the next day

[GuiltyLion]

I would also like to point out how RC is being emotionally manipulative to drive this wagon along as fast as possible

Creature I take back everything I said about you being a shitty nightkill if you vote with me here.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

I love you.

Hi BYF!

Are you interested in lynching Guiltylion?

"Heyyyy guyyyyy, [bats eyelashes]"

Can I seriously advocate we hammer reck for hider and GL for scum before Chesskid comes back on so he doesn't throw another tirade and add another couple hundred posts to the thread?

like in what universe is this a pro-town thing to do, encourage a hammer as quickly as possible on a wagon that just sprung up in half a day? "You guys hate how much that dude chesskid spams, right?!? Wanna hammer an objectively weak lynch on a player who hasn't been able to post much today?"

[GuiltyLion]

Guiltylion instead of doing whatever you're doing can you just give a readslist with some reasons

point me to your reasoned readslist first

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Hinduragi

Guiltylion instead of doing whatever you're doing can you just give a readslist with some reasons

point me to your reasoned readslist first

you're likely to get lynched, I'm not, everyone in this game knows what my reads are on generally everyone.
Why are you turning it around on me when I'm trying to give you the opportunity to share your reads before you get lynched?

Uh, do they? Just in the span of a day you said you didn't want to vote Hindu 2048, jumped in and defended him against my question I asked towards him 2111 before he even came to the thread, voted him 2391, and then encouraged him to join you on me instead 2508. So what's your read on Hindu? Town or scum?

I'm not going to wade through your ISO again to continue this argument but the only firm reads I remember off the top of my head from you are town!Mastina, town!Cheeky, town!Anenien, scum!chesskid, scum!GL, with shade thrown at Smart, Hindu, EP when convenient. Don't remember any discussion from you on Katy or BYF. I believe my reads are just as easily understood and present in my ISO as yours are, and mine are even easier to go back and find because my ISO is less than a 10th of volume as yours.

I'm turning it around on you because I don't see at all why you are switching over to try to strongarm a flashwagon on me, the reasons you've given in thread are not really believable nor accurate and I'm getting a sense that this is entirely scum-motivated. Forcing you to engage with my defense will give town better content to work with on my flip than a single readslist - especially since it's D1 and my reads are still baking in the oven. I have provided reads earlier in the thread and the way you asked for it despite your insistence that I'm scum also feels more like you're just looking for more reasons to argue with me and push me

[GuiltyLion]

Like I was planning to just say that whatever he was posting was scummy and that we should quicklynch him for it but these have actually been some really shitty posts

oh look, I was right

RC I'm probably gonna just stop playing with you after this game. I get that being manipulative and making shit up is just as much a part of your towngame as your scumgame and it makes you unreadable, but it also makes it an absolute chore to try to deal with you

[GuiltyLion]

I also feel EP is town.

p-edit: chesskid, my team is dropping out of the game so I don't have any interest to understand the argument and it won't do any good. I'm doing this because I just wanted to give you guys what info I had and what was in my head.

Wait what?

Yah buddy, I'm sorry. I'd like to stick around and see if we would've gone 1v1 but most of my team dropped out due to things. I started reading and found out immediately after a few of my first posts. I only put up with this game for their sake so, when I heard they were gone, I dipped out too. That's why I gave my final thoughts and stuff for all you guys. That's everything I've been thinking on the table in my last posts from today.

P-edit: It's alright, my dude, we had fun at least.

BYF what do you think of these posts? Is scum!Hinduragi actually manipulatively replacing out (or lying about it)? Is Hinduragi replacing out regardless of his alignment but is scum and trying to just give his slot towncred in the process?

If these posts are for real it makes me think Hinduragi is very likely town. Similar reasoning to Wh4t's replace it out in this game

[GuiltyLion]

As far as updated reads, I think considering the Hindu replace out and RC push on me, I'm moving closer to this

definite town: {Reck, BYF, Creature}
more probably town but maybe a scum is in here: {Hindu, Smart, Anenien, Cheeky, Katy}
most scum probably here: {EP, Mastina, Primate, RC, CK, Srceenplay}

Whether I'm scum or not, if my team is dropping out, I'd be inclined to as well. I doubt he's lying; you can check it (even though I haven't) I don't think it's important.

yah that's a fair point. It vibes honest to me but I'll try to reread it again and consider a scum!Hindu world tomorrow with fresh eyes and see if I can't rule it out.

You're playing a game where about a third of the players have admitted they either don't care or hate the game and you're wondering why I'm trying to close out D1?

when the lynch is on me I am!

[GuiltyLion]

Guiltylion instead of doing whatever you're doing can you just give a readslist with some reasons

point me to your reasoned readslist first

GuiltyLion first.

Anenien did you get to the later part of this conversation? It was pretty clear to me at the time that RC only wanted a "reasoned readslist" to spin it as scummy and he basically admitted as much in 2645

As far as updated reads, I think considering the Hindu replace out and RC push on me, I'm moving closer to this
definite town: {Reck, BYF, Creature}
more probably town but maybe a scum is in here: {Hindu, Smart, Anenien, Cheeky, Katy}
most scum probably here: {EP, Mastina, Primate, RC, CK, Srceenplay}

Tell us more about Errant, Primate and Srceenplay.

Primate is more POE than anything else, when I went through his ISO again I didn't see anything extremely town or unfakeable by scum, so I don't have a good read on his alignment beyond base probability and he's below anyone who I've felt has made townie posts.

I didn't like a few things about Errant's catchup, there's a lot of comments that are useless now that the game advanced some 2000+ posts so it felt like more work for show than genuinely trying to create useful game-advancing content. And the Katy push feels like a classic scum push where you pick a player who's not particularly town/scumread and hasn't drawn a lot of discussion and start pushing them because it gives you something to do, you know it won't get too much negative attention, and it might result in a compromise deadline lynch. Pretty similar to RC's pivot to me, actually. and I don't really vibe with Katy scumreads in general.

Srceenplay has been active lurking in a sense, he's pushing this Mastina/Yoshi/Anen angle occasionally but mostly just not really posting anything that actually makes an impact or opens him up to conversation. I don't like any Yoshi scumreads and his actual presented reasons for voting Mastina are basically because "Boon said to", I haven't seen him draw the actual connection between Mastina's play and why it's scum-indicative.

This may be my only post for the day, going to a beer fest later, don't feel inclined to comment on the latest RC posts beyond the fact that he absolutely justifies his pushes with the "even if you're town you deserve(d) this lynch" reasoning all the time. If I'm not feeling lazy later I'll dig through some games and find them. And talking about my scum game is purely to fear/paranoia monger, just because I have a decent scumgame does not mean I'm scum here and it does not justify a vote on me.

[GuiltyLion]

a meme from Mathdino

[GuiltyLion]

EPs catch up resonated with me because a lot of their stances on the game state as they progressed followed my own thoughts. I believe EP's catch up is much stronger than Aneninen's because she didn't focus on ISO picking to determine her reads and she took the whole game and interactions into account.

the thing is if you've read the whole thread, you can rewrite (or just agree with) things that other people said later and pass them off as your own thoughts or your own "progression". Like it's true that Aneninen's ISO picking doesn't take the game/interactions into account, but it's not hard for scum to do a page by page catchup like EP did. I only put stock in people's thoughts resonating with mine when people post them

before

I've posted mine.

[GuiltyLion]

The second, and the plan chosen, was to be the driving force behind a scum lynch. This scum flip would lift suspicion and remove the hider from him. However this lynch cannot be mastina since his position on her is beyond solidified. Thus to accomplish this he would have to the previously unknown 3rd scum.

How do I know plan #2 was chosen?

5.Bonus RC is arrogant.

RC probably believes that he alone is the one who can carry the scumteam to victory. Based on all the chaos he has caused today and the numerous townreads he has obtained for it, he's probably not wrong.

Furthermore, unless the 3rd scum were in Reck/Creature/Cheeky (hint: it's not), they aren't in a good position to endgame.
RC probably believes he alone can strongarm the town and pull this game out of the absolutely awful position Elli's program and my stubbornness have put them in. Thus out of the two options we discussed above, RC would choose option 2, with the backdoor that if the bus failed, it would have helped option 1 because he and his partner would have distanced.

6 Because of all the above Guiltylion is the most likely candidate for scum 3.

Please note how RC was actively trying to close the lynch on GuiltyLion while I was away.

Eh I think RC just saw a slot that he thought he could drive a quick informationless lynch on and went for it, since a lot of people have been casually scumreading me because I haven't posted that much. Don't think he anticipated me making it back to the thread and biting back.

I agree with the entire rest of this post however

@p-edit: Cheeky the Dino "cheeky town because of her bad hider plan" thing wasn't a serious read/justification, we just both happened to be on Discord and talking about the game at the same time and he threw that comment out and I repeated him

[GuiltyLion]

You sure you can’t take hider creature?

Srceenplay why did you post this?

[GuiltyLion]

@chess - I can/will hammer mastina but I want to give it a day since she's reached L-1 since not everybody has checked in yet.

@Cheeky - town. high level one liner is that there's a lot of attempts to sort peripheral players and re-evaluation/re-thinking that I don't think scum would feel the need to do or would think to fake. also personally felt you were a lot more crafted/calculated in Reverse Mafia than you are here

3. srceenplay and GL are both people I'd join a wagon on. I don't think that GLs defense is stellar. I think his lash out at RC is scum frustration. Maybe it could be wrong and I definitely don't want to make it more frustrating if he's town because I know how that can be. shrug

hey EP let's talk about this - my main defense is that RC's push on me is for NAI reasons having to do primarily with difficulty keeping up with the game, and that he hasn't sufficiently justified any of them nor would a town!RC believe that they are actually indicative.

I can sort of see why that wouldn't hold up for you if you're townreading RC, but can you explicitly address this - what reasons do you have of your own for thinking I'm scum and/or why are RC's reasons good?

There was also an assumption in his push that I need to be towntelling or that I haven't towntold, but he of all people should know that there's nothing you can just post to show your alignment, it can only be drawn out through opinions and demonstrating that you're genuinely game-solving. I can get why people aren't explicitly townreading me but I don't think my ISO is short of opinions or pushes when I have been here and I feel most of these thoughts were largely ignored/buried under the spam of this game. RC didn't really engage with any of these on a content level, instead asked me for a readlist and openly admitted to planning to spin my posts as scummy.

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion seems to have a decent amount of heat so that seems like someone who can also clarify some questions/reads. No opinion, yet, though.

do you have any questions/reads in particular for me and do you have an opinion on the "heat" that I've received?

also thank you for 2878 that's the 2nd best post of the game after Reck's scummastina video

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Radiant Cowbells

[GuiltyLion]

You don’t give someone you scum read a free shot.
If you don’t trust them to be town you don’t trust the to shoot scum.

but the only way vengeful is used is if the player gets lynched

who do you advocate we elect for a vengeful kill instead if not a player who's likely to be lynched?

[GuiltyLion]

Anenien - I agree that it's less likely that scum didn't bus early on, but I don't think it was obvious that mastina was getting lynched (or that Reck was targeting RC with the hider) until much later in the day, especially most likely after Chesskid's 1669. So I think anyone who turned on Mastina after that point could be bussing as it's likely it was after that point when scum realized she was a goner and may have tried to salvage towncred from it.

We go from here:

Day 1, VC 14

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

GuiltyLion(4)

- RadiantCowbells, Hinduragi, CheekyTeeky, xRECKONERx

mastina(2)

- chesskid3, Srceenplay

xRECKONERx(1)

- mastina

RadiantCowbells(1)

- singersigner

Katyusha(1)

- Errantparabola

Hinduragi(1)

- BigYoshiFan

Errantparabola(1)

- Katyusha

chesskid3(1)

- GuiltyLion


Not Voting (3): Aneninen, Something_Smart, Creature

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-02-04 21:00:00)

to here:

Day 1, VC 16

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

mastina(8)

-chesskid3, Srceenplay, Creature, BigYoshiFan, singersigner, CheekyTeeky, xRECKONERx, Aneninen

chesskid3(4)

- GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, RadiantCowbells, Ghostlin

Katyusha(1)

- Errantparabola

Errantparabola(1)

- Katyusha

Srceenplay(1)

- mastina

so when looking at any votes that are not on scum!mastina, you have to weigh that vote's utility for scum vs the utility of the towncred that they would have gotten from moving to bus. Also, since you named 5 players, it's trivially true that at least 3 (a majority) of them are town who didn't vote mastina. So "not voting Mastina" cannot be considered scum-indicative in and of itself and I'd like to see a more convincing explanation than just "wasn't on the D1 lynch" for any scumcases on that subset.

Some things to note/discuss between the VCs:
-if scum did bus, I think it's between Creature/BYF/singersigner, they are in the sweet spot of "hop on this wagon as it's inevitably happening at this point anyway and we need to get something out of it"
-GL/EP/Katyusha never moved - I am biased but I don't think this says anything in particular, would have to break down the reads here to see if there was a point where any of us should have voted mastina but didn't
-there was an effort to kickstart a chesskid counterwagon from {S_S, RC, Ghostlin}. RC is confscum obviously, so the important question is:

if S_S or Ghostlin are scum, why did they feel their vote was better placed as a last ditch effort to counterwagon chesskid than an attempt to glean towncred from a scum!mastina flip

? I don't think that a ck lynch was likely at this point and I have to believe that a scum!SS or scum!Ghostlin would be worried about how they would look not being on the wagon and instead being on basically-conftown!ck.

also, do you really think ck could be scum here? Even if he gets all the towncred in the world for pushing that lynch, how does he then explain himself being alive at 3p LYLO?

I'm here as of the D2 flips, but haven't sat down and re-ISO'd or reread:
{Smocaine}
{S_S, Ghostlin, Katyusha, BYF}
{Screenplay, Creature, Anenien}
{EP, singersigner}
{RC}

[GuiltyLion]

Also, as far as I can remember, Reckoner's target was pretty much decided.

When do you think it was "pretty much decided"? I haven't bothered to go back and reread a lot of D1, but just looking at a few posts as a snapshot:

-The VC where I was a leading wagon was 2768
-Prior to that by half a day, RC and Reck were arguing about the hider and Reck posted this:

I WILL GO WITH WHATEVER SIDE MAKES THIS END THE QUICKEST JESUS FUCKING CHRIST

i want to hide behind mastina but chess is being a bitch

So I would say that at least as of 2616 as an early bound, 2768 as a later bound, the Mastina lynch was not decided and the hide behind RC was not decided.
Even as of 2874, you yourself did not think the hider had been decided:

(3) We still need to decide whom should Reckoner target.

so it's "pigeon poop" to suggest that the lynch!mastina-hide!RC plan was decided up until significantly late in D1. You are implying that it was obvious mastina was going down and so both scum must have fought against it, but it's entirely plausible if not likely that RC took on that duty while the other scum tried to position themselves to look good in the twofer worst case scenario - especially since that's probably the only way they win the game at this point.

[GuiltyLion]

How do you have me lower than Yoshi?

I don't see many reasons other than the bussing possibility to nullify my reasons for townreading BYF yesterday. I still don't feel like you ever took a proactive role in sorting/game-solving yesterDay, holistically I haven't had many "this is town" pings from your ISO

p-edit: Smocaine - how am I contradicting my bussing stance?

[GuiltyLion]

guilty why are you null on creature btw

I'm not null on him, my readslist is a descending order of "likely to be town". Since there's only one scum after RC pretty much everyone is a townread at this point. He's in the tier of "could be scum playing a strong game but not worth looking at", just below the above tier of "I'd really only consider these slots at LYLO"

Smocaine - it's not at all pertinent to me being a lynch? I'm trying to both get a better read on Aninien, push him towards looking at people I'm looking at, and generate useful dialogue. I think it's more likely the third scum bussed than counterwagoned here so I don't like him ruling it out. Has absolutely nothing to do with me being lynched.

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion...what makes you group me into potentially bussing Mastina? What makes you think my vote was out of "inevitably happening"? After only two votes on Mastina, I said I was good with her lynch, and both Creature and BigYoshi voted pretty quickly and consecutively after that. With no momentum for a lynch, as a motherfuckingreplacement, I had no reason to vote there yet. I would very much disagree that the three of us, as the votes shook out, have any advantage of placing them as we did.

If anything, I think it's more likely that Srceenplay and Mastina counter voted and Srceenplay practically voteparked/tunneled Mastina all game. This could easily be scum placing a "safe vote" before a lynch was inevitable, and lacked a valid reason to prevent it from happening to hop off later. I DO NOT THINK THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED BUT FOR PERSPECTIVE'S SAKE.

it's mostly wagon position honestly. There was a swing towards my lynch and then a pendulum turbo swing back to Mastina. Obviously mostly town drove that but I could see you as scum hopping on, especially so you could make this exact post. "scum!me doesn't have an advantage of bussing my partner there" isn't really a defense I can agree with because if I agree with it then it did in fact give scum!you an advantage.

I also agree with the perspective in your second paragraph, I'm not ignoring that possibility. Why'd you bring it up - did you think that possibility would make me decrease my perception of the odds of scum!singer bussing?

[GuiltyLion]

still catching up, I don't think Ghostlin is scum but it looks like there's a lot of people scumreading him (page 126) so I'm also fine with giving him the Venge

elect: Ghostlin

[GuiltyLion]

GL, how likely would you have been to take a scum role?

don't really feel like answering this is worth all the tiptoeing I'd have to do about ongoing games. If people say I'm the most likely to take a scum role PM on my team as a reason to lynch me then IMO you should evaluate that claim yourself without me arguing about it. my flip will be a better data point then anything I say while alive anyway

[GuiltyLion]

Now, let's see GuiltyLion.

Spoiler:

1066 – Looks like a big null on both RC and Mastina.

1515 – He votes for Chesskid, RC is harder, Mastina is softer townread in his readlist, without any more content. (I wonder why I ended up at the list as softer town. He had been voting for me earlier and said nothing about the change. Meanwhile, my wagon died out...)

In 1802 he doesn't believe the Elli-tell.

2089 is worth reading for everyone. Especially the part where he's calculating how many votes Mastina could get. 2091 is weird, too.

2636 is a kind of defence on Mastina.

By 2661 both RC and Mastina have been moved to his scum-list. I wonder, why...

In 2946 he tells he will hammer Mastina later. It never happened. (That may be a null, because I did so.)

Keep in mind that he had NO direct interaction with Mastina.

More interaction with RadiantCowbells, remember, RC moved somehow from his townlist to his scumlist. (Maybe around 2639 there was a change on RC???)

2089 may be an attempt on suggesting Reckoner picking another target than RC! 2102 is similar in many ways.

I don't know whether 2648 is genuine. If they have met in-game before, it might not be.


Also, as I said, I didn't like his 3086. Besides, I think he was trying to widen our lynch pool instead of narrowing it.

TL;DR – I can imagine him as the third scum. His interactions and attitude towards Mastina and RC are not as scummy as Ghostlin's, but I can find scummy things there too.

there was definitely a lot of read changes and re-evaluation going on under the hood in my ISO which I didn't lay out in thread, I'm happy to explain them if you want to ask me further questions about them. I will say my read on RC nosedived as soon as he started pushing me as a counterwagon to Mastina, I got a lot of the same vibes I got in Word Sneak 2 where scum!RC (Halos & Horns hydra) death tunneled me.

and I'm not trying to widen the lynch pool - I'm trying to take S_S/Ghostlin/BYF out of the lynchpool and replace them with singer I guess, mainly. You were trying to say anyone who voted Mastina is probably not scum and that's just kinda the exact opposite of how I feel here.

[GuiltyLion]

Mathdino suggested an alternative idea for today

what if we give the venge to someone we think is scum, lynch them today, and have them agree to kill RC?
- if we lynch scum, they shoot someone else but we autowin D3 with RC lynch
- if we lynch town, they kill RC and we get more associatives/information today than just kinda spinning wheels until tomorrow
- this also prevents the worst case scenario of town lynched and using venge on another town D3.

so we'd be guaranteed to go to odds with one scum down

thoughts?

elect: singersigner

[GuiltyLion]

I'll respond to the rest of Anen's post later but just want to quickly point out to Smocaine/Anenien that your criticisms of my lynch elsewhere and venge-RC plan today don't make any sense. There is a significant difference between lynching confscum RC vs venging confscum RC.

If we lynch elsewhere with the promise of the venge being used on RC, then between D2 and D3 we use the lynches collaboratively which is juicier for content and information. If we use one of the lynches on confscum RC then it doesn't tell us anything (because scum are absolutely "bussing" him here, if you can even call it that). And if town uses venge on another town that also doesn't really tell us anything as both of them will be dead. While the numbers work out the same by N3, we actually get more info out of taking out RC with the venge and using the lynch as a team tool, as it will require the last scum to take stances and push for/against wagons, even if they do wind up being mislynches. If we just give venge to a townie who's scumreading another townie, scum can sit back and play it safe.

does that make sense? IMO this is a pretty obviously superior plan so it's surprising that you guys don't see that.

[GuiltyLion]

Just answer it as you would before the event started. i.e. you know your teammates but don't have role PM's yet... would you want to pick town or scum?

I mean I always want to pick town because it's more fun to play, but my team agreed beforehand that I'm probably the second best scum player on our team after kmd. So I would have been somewhat likely to take a scum role if we got one, but it also would have depended on our scumpartner teams and the particular setup of the game involved.

[GuiltyLion]

RC still dies at the end of today, so any point about "leaving scum alive" is completely irrelevant

on your last point - I disagree? A unilateral decision by a townie is more likely to be wrong than a consensus effort of all townies. We could force the venge onto a player by consensus, but mechanically that's no different than my plan at that point and we might as well just use the lynch instead so there are actual stakes and people are forced to use votes instead of pseudovotes

[GuiltyLion]

like are you guys just misunderstanding me? There's nothing that says we can't use the venge today. I'm saying whoever gets elected venge today is lynched today and uses it on RC today. So it's completely not cogent to say "leaving scum alive is bad!" like Anenien and vonflare just did.

[GuiltyLion]

on your last point - I disagree? A unilateral decision by a townie is more likely to be wrong than a consensus effort of all townies

and the remaining scum, who also get input

.

the remaining scum gets input if you try to make it a consensus venge as well, so how is that different? The only way we are going to catch the scum is through their input. I think the scum's input will be more noticeably fake/scum-motivated if they are giving input on a consensus lynch rather than who a townie mislynch should venge.

[GuiltyLion]

like if nothing else, it will be easier to track votes later via the VCs than via some manually half organized "who is the venge today" discussion

[GuiltyLion]

I'm saying whoever gets elected venge today is lynched today and uses it on RC today.

[GuiltyLion]

if we actually do lynch scum, which would be the only good outcome of lynching anyone other than RC, then they shoot town.

and then RC is LITERALLY CONFSCUM on D3 and we win

shading this as being a scumclaim is really bizarre and dense. Please think about what I am posting before you post, thanks

[GuiltyLion]

elect: Ghostlin

enjoy the Super Bowl everyone! I'll get to this tonight

[GuiltyLion]

I started to catch up but ran out of time for tonight, I'm sorry for not being here recently toDay but if there's no lynch before tomorrow I will have time to get back into this by then. I still doubt Ghostlin is scum here, feels way too easy, but if I'm wrong I'm wrong and it doesn't matter. will respond to stuff tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

@Ghostlin

- who do you currently want to venge?

Since the doctor can't self-target, I think we should elect a scummier player and make them promise to protect Smocaine or Creature.

I'm actually thinking now that Anenien is the last scum. The way he formulaically stuck to his "scum didn't bus Mastina" gamestate view on D2 and shaded my slot throughout while still pushing Ghostlin - essentially putting us on the same tier - feels like scum that needs a bunch of mislynches. Add in the repeated "I shouldn't live until LYLO" mantra for WIFOM, his reluctance to conftown the Smocaine slot (also saying that the slot shouldn't be alive in LYLO?), and his general "lynchpool" approach and it doesn't feel to me like genuine sorting, more like trying to establish a favorable chain of lynches and encourage town infighting.

@Anen - can you break down why you keep saying Smocaine shouldn't be alive in LYLO? what difference does it make lynching him earlier rather than later, and isn't that dependent on his alignment? What is gained by lynching him at 5p rather than 3p?

[GuiltyLion]

@Ghostlin

- who do you currently want to venge?

Ghostlin, do not answer this yet!

why can't Ghostlin answer this??? Either we lynch him today and he venges, or it doesn't matter who he currently wants to venge. If we're lynching him today I'd like to know this answer so people can discuss it. You can't have a "consensus venge" without Ghostlin's choice as a starting point. There's literally no issue with him answering it.

Since the doctor can't self-target, I think we should elect a scummier player and make them promise to protect Smocaine or Creature.

The question above and this makes me feel that you want to know what the PRs are doing. Why?

uh, what? What PRs are you talking about, the venge and the doc? What I said is no different than what you said, I was agreeing on that point.

Secondly, Smocaine can not be called conf-town. Chesskid's Elli-tell and the whole push might have been artificial too. And the whole Day1 with all the fight, the walls, the spam might have been planned by the scum team.

Yeah but both Smart and Ghostlin have already pointed out succinctly why this is pretty much impossibly unlikely in 3427 and 3430. And yet you keep riffing on this. FMPOV there's no reason to even consider a world of scum!Smocaine until you basically get to 3p LYLO and he's not dead yet. So I don't understand why you've been bringing it up and it looks far more like you're trying to plan for some long term gamestate where Smocaine is still a potential lynch than gain anything that benefits town from it. Looks to me like "widening the lynchpool".

and you didn't answer my question:

ASSUMING WE ARE TO LYNCH SMOCAINE

, what exactly is gained in your view by lynching him prior to LYLO (i.e. post 3087)?

Thirdly, I think you were the one who wanted to widen the lynch-pool on Day2. My "chain of lynches" was merely a suggestion and it's obvious that it won't happen if all the others are disagree with my reads.

Okay, if you're going to again accuse me of "widening the lynchpool", then please explain:

1) Who is in Anen's lynchpool
2) Who is in GL's lynchpool
3) Why set 2 is larger than set 3

Forthly, what "town infight" are you talking about? Every single scumread on a townie is a "town infight".

see above re:Smocaine. I'm not seeing why you say the things that you say

[GuiltyLion]

will get to this in 4 hours!

[GuiltyLion]

been prioritizing my IC game with my limited mafia time this weekend

[GuiltyLion]

why these 2?

which one in particular?

I think they're both pretty obvtown. I'd probably prefer Smocaine as I think he's a harder mislynch for scum to push

[GuiltyLion]

The difference is huge. You actually made suggestions whom the Doctor should protect. If the Doctor reveals his target in advance, that helps the scum in choosing the Nightkill.

I think scum is pretty screwed at this point and we might as well just agree on who's most important to keep someone alive with the doc protect. If scum don't kill the elected doc tonight then that limits them even further. And the point of having a named target is that if scum gets elected the doc, then they can't NK that target without incriminating themselves. If the doctor's protection is ambiguous, then if scum gets the doc they can kill anybody and lie and say they protected somebody else

What specifically does scum!GL gain out of advocating to protect Smocaine or Creature?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel very strongly that if all of Aneninen

, Ghostlin, GuiltyLion, and Errant

die, we will win.

basically same, but this

VOTE: Aneninen

BYF who would you doc here if you receive it? or are you of the "let's not decide publicly on doc protect" camp?

[GuiltyLion]

good enough for me

elect BYF

[GuiltyLion]

If we follow your logic, there will be a Nightkill, and whoever the Doc protects, the scum can go after them next Night. (Unless they get lynched.) If we elect a town-looking player as the Doc, the scum will simply Nightkill him. (If not, there will be a WIFOM, I think.)

No one is saying to elect the most town looking players as doc

WIFOM to scum NK is not as useful as you are pretending it is, especially since this is currently a 9v1. If completely random and unannounced, the odds of scum killing the same person as the doc protect is ~1/8 (not entirely correct, actual odds are slightly lower as doc could "protect" scum, but oversimplifying here for the sake of my point). Even if you think of two "obvtowns" and have doc coinflip between them (which is also fine by me), that leaves scum with a choice of killing someone else or at worst, 50% chance of success.

What I am trying to gain out of this instead is a

guarantee

that someone who is not getting lynched this game survives until tomorrow, to put more pressure on scum to have to bullshit a push elsewhere.

Why are you asking Smart/BYF to explain themselves? You previously said they weren't in your lynchpool, are you townreading them?

[GuiltyLion]

And this is another thing from GuiltyLion which makes no sence from the town point of view. See above; he wanted to know whom the Doc will protect – and got it.

also like, citation for why this is scummy is completely missing. town!GL wanted to know who the Doc will protect, and got it. As long as the doc isn't going rogue and pulling some stupid gambit on saving some other random slot, then I think the most utility we get out of this is just guaranteeing the survival of an obvtown.

[GuiltyLion]

Obviously om confbiasing it but it's kinda meh?

i'll write up a better case tonight or tomorrow if I'm not feeling lazy but everything he's done yesterday and today feels awkward and meant to spread paranoia and chaos

[GuiltyLion]

Caveat: sometimes there are other reasons for the difference. Eg. the player is at LyLo in a long game or

the game you're in is stalled.

burnnn

Feels like a lot of apathy in the game right now, does anyone else have thoughts on my Anen scumread or want to join me there? Or is there anyone who absolutely does not want to vote there? are we just waiting on the doc election before we vote?

I should be around more today

[GuiltyLion]

alright so I spent a little bit of time going back through D1 and Anen's ISO, here's some things I'd like to call out:

repeated early defense of RC's swap out

So, both Spiffeh and Espeonage think Reckoner is scum.

They brought up the same thing I had noticed. I'm talking about eg. this:

think RC's team saw FB's slot/scumteam and RC swooped into the rescue but i can't vote there yet because i promised to policy RVS vote the spam squad

By that post RadiantCowbells

had clearly explained

the reason for the swap.

Althoug I'm back after one-and-a-half year and I've missed a lot, in Team Mafia, things like that explanation from RC is something

can be confirmed instantly

. So, in short, the swap in itself is null.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xRECKONERx

...?

im mostly here for my friends

- i wanted to give playing mafia another shot but unless this game is particularly fun/not toxic im probably done for a while again

Null then, for the same reason as RC's swap. In Team Mafia, it can be confirmed easily.

I don't understand. I'm saying I didn't buy RC's explanation.
That was also prior to Shea or Keely being online. They've since both confirmed that Cabd and RC have major problems with each other and that it's not bullshit. Keely notes however that RC's expectation that Shea/Keely would've already briefed me on that note is "skeevy".

And I still think RC's story was a big null and you were trying to make a case out of it.

having now seen RC's flip, I'm inclined to believe the swap out was entirely calculated and this is scum defending a buddy caught for "bad" reasons

bonus early soft defense of Mastina, which then turns into a townread:

Meanwhile, can someone summarize me where that Mastin wagon came from?
All I can see is 8 posts and a gamestyle I've seen from her before, regardless of alignment.

More.

As for

Mastin

, I don't think I need break down all her posts.
I remember this kind of gamestyle from her very well. The "grab out a couple of posts and give one-word answers like "town", "scum", the relative absense and big walls included.
That was town Mastin. (Apart from a single game where she was actually SK, but she was scumhunting.)
I wouldn't say I'd give her a free pass just because of her style in mid- or late-game, but that's good enough for me on Day.

Town

discrediting of chesskid's Eli tell

the posts are too big to quote here, but reread 2117, 2159, 2193, 2319. The thing that makes me think this is scum discrediting is that Anen focuses primarily on

out of game

reasons to discredit the tool - may not be ethical/allowed, may not have large enough sample size to work, why haven't you used it on other players in the game, etc. Several of these points had already been covered by chesskid in thread, and for someone who started off by talking about how everything can be "confirmed" in TeamMafia (see posts quoted above), it doesn't look to me like Anenien went through any effort to "confirm" the existence of the program or it's efficacy before going in to pushing back against it. I actually already called this out D1:

And I didn't like the way he pushed back on chesskid about the program, it felt more like he had a prior goal of discrediting the notion of the AI scumtell. And I may have missed it but I feel like his posts about the program were also missing his teammates opinions - those are some experienced and popular and intelligent players on his team, I think they would have opinions about it that they would discuss with town!Anenien before his 2117 and 2159. Maybe that discussion did happen in the background but as far as I can tell he doesn't mention any of his team's opinions on it.

_constant_ discrediting of chesskid/Smocaine town, while still calling them town

(2) That Chesskid/Mastina team idea has come into my mind too... if that's true they're geniuses. Especially if RC is the third one... But it's too early to speculate on that. However we should

never

call any of them town because another one of them flips scum.

Mastina's flip confirms

no one

. Not even you.

(3) It is NOT working. Mastina's flip gives us NO information about Chesskid.

(3) As far as I know, most players are scumreading Mastina

regardless of

Chesskid's software. I keep parrotting: Matina's flip tells us NOTHING about Chesskid's alignment. The whole story could be a puppet show organized by two scum.

As for the Mastina-wagon, two players are more likely scum than the others:
– Chesskid/Smokaine. I still can't rule out that the whole Day1 with that Elli-read was planned by the scumteam. It's a highly risky move, but I can imagine such a gameplay for a scumteam which includes Mastina and RadiantCowbells.

Why we should not rule out Chesskid/Smocaine:

1 Why did Chesskid use the program only on Mastina?
2 Why after 8 posts and not later or later again?
3 Why not on me whom he was scumreading?
4 What if Mastina/RC/Chesskid were making noise intentionally so that we couldn't form real reads on anyone?

I'm not saying he's the most possible third scum. I am only saying he is possible.

As for

Chesskid

, I've already expressed my thoughts. I still don't think he should be alive at LyLo, but everyone else seems to obv-town him, this might not be an issue at all.

+ a billion more that I didn't quote that are buried in other posts or back and forths with me about why Smocaine "can't live til lylo"

I don't think it's likely that a town!Anenien is

this

hung up on resolving a slot that basically hard pushed scum D1 to an extent that it refused to consider any other lynches and gave a compelling explanation of the scumread (Elli's scumtell). If he's town then Anenien is extremely obstinate about an idea that's been pretty much shot down a million times already, and for what benefit to him? It's more likely to me that it's scum trying to bring down an unlynchable slot, cause distractions, and give himself as wide a pool as possible - especially because he was pushing this on D1 before mastina even flipped.

[GuiltyLion]

Anen I want people other than you to respond to my points

pretty much everyone ignored my 3681 and my push generally all of today

[GuiltyLion]

effort either way is not indicative of alignment

[GuiltyLion]

Okay so we need a townblock of three for autowin.

I feel like I'm the most widely townread person behind Smocaine and Creature... is that accurate?

I feel like it's singer tbh?

vonflare kill is weird

if I'm the lynch today I vote give the track to EP or Smart and have them track the other. prefer EP tracking Smart I think

elect: ErrantParabola

[GuiltyLion]

apologize for the shitty read on the gamestate yesterday but I currently can't be bothered to dig again through that D1 yet and I'm going skiing this weekend. maybe if I'm not lynched by evening Sat/Sun I'll have some time. still think Creature/Smocaine town, scum probably in Smart or EP mostly lurking it out. BYF/singer LYLO decision would be awful but I'd probably lynch singer there

[GuiltyLion]

just don't get paranoid and do something stupid like lynching Smocaine or Creature

[GuiltyLion]

although all of GL's posts today have been pretty much exactly the type of thing I'd expect him to be doing as scum.

here are my posts today:

Okay so we need a townblock of three for autowin.

I feel like I'm the most widely townread person behind Smocaine and Creature... is that accurate?

I feel like it's singer tbh?

vonflare kill is weird

if I'm the lynch today I vote give the track to EP or Smart and have them track the other. prefer EP tracking Smart I think

elect: ErrantParabola

apologize for the shitty read on the gamestate yesterday but I currently can't be bothered to dig again through that D1 yet and I'm going skiing this weekend. maybe if I'm not lynched by evening Sat/Sun I'll have some time. still think Creature/Smocaine town, scum probably in Smart or EP mostly lurking it out. BYF/singer LYLO decision would be awful but I'd probably lynch singer there

just don't get paranoid and do something stupid like lynching Smocaine or Creature

what is the "type of thing" I'm doing here that you would expect me to do as scum?

[GuiltyLion]

Then vote him? Is there anything else we want to take care of?

do we all agree on tracking Smart? I think he's probably the best track target due to the combination of "mislynchable if town" and "helpful if cleared" of the remaining suspect pool (Smart/EP/Singer/BYF). and if EP is town and gets the tracker and gets killed then that also feels like it's narrowing scum's mislynch pool.

If I had gotten scum in this tournament (something which I would have tried to avoid if at all possible)

also on this - in your opinion, who on your team would be most likely to choose scum?

[GuiltyLion]

what is the "type of thing" I'm doing here that you would expect me to do as scum?

Trying to keep your options open as much as possible and trying to establish the exact set of actions required for you to make it to LYLO.

I'm not saying you wouldn't do it as town but it's exactly what I'd expect scum-you to try.

this doesn't really make sense - what options have I been trying to keep open for myself? Which of those three posts is doing that? I'm readily accepting the lynch today

push Smart on this tomorrow if he isn't tracker cleared, he's probably the mandatory lynch if EP dies tonight. also I think EP's posts today have felt hella town