Large Normal 200 - Big Round Numbers - Game Over

[Lil Uzi Vert]

If she'd been a genuine newbie, I could let that go, but she isn't.

This is the part where I advocate for debi and say that it's their first game on site.

You two know each other?

[Alisae]

If she'd been a genuine newbie, I could let that go, but she isn't.

This is the part where I advocate for debi and say that it's their first game on site.

You two know each other?

Not IRL but ye somewhat.

[Debi]

Also no I am not an alt, I used to do mafia a lot of another forum is all, new things here such as what OMGUS or WIFOM have been explained to me via Wiki or other sources. This is my first time on this forum.

Creature if it was A ratio of Town:Scum:Other it would probably be 7:6:6:
So it would be:
For pine to be scum: 6/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be Scum: 5/18
For both it is roughly 1/11:
Meaning there is a 1/11 chance they are both Scum, but of course it is just a hypothesis.

PS: Genuinely not an alt, you can ask for my IP if you need some evidence.
PSS: Alisae is a Steam friend

[Creature]

The game will end when all threats to town have been eliminated or that is not possible.

Singleball.

How does that confirm singleball? (Although, that is badly worded imo.)

Oh nvm, that does not confirm singleball.

Care to explain your original logic in the first place?

It says the game ends when all threats to town were eliminated (town win) or it couldn't happen (town loss), but say there's:
3 mafia alive
2 townies alive
1 BP SK alive

At this point town pretty much already lost, though, then the mafia would win even if the SK were alive?

Then I realised the game would still go on at that point.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Also no I am not an alt, I used to do mafia a lot of another forum is all, new things here such as what OMGUS or WIFOM have been explained to me via Wiki or other sources. This is my first time on this forum.

Creature if it was A ratio of Town:Scum:Other it would probably be 7:6:6:
So it would be:
For pine to be scum: 6/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be Scum: 5/18
For both it is roughly 1/11:
Meaning there is a 1/11 chance they are both Scum, but of course it is just a hypothesis.

PS: Genuinely not an alt, you can ask for my IP if you need some evidence.
PSS: Alisae is a Steam friend

So you think Gin is scum for attempting to clear himself early?

[Creature]

Debi, there aren't many non-town there. Also, the only possible factions are town, mafia/werewolves and SK.

[Ircher]

TheRealGin-N-Tonic, there is something I'm failing to understand to do with your current actions in the round. You have voted to lynch Pine, which is all well and done, at this point in the game, 99% of the votes, won't have any ulterior motive behind them whatsoever, which is fine, if you don't have any main reason to be voting for Pine. However, you have currently created a contradiction, when trying to prove that your vote on Pine is legit, and has reasoning. The main problem with it, is as below:

It might be one-sided on Pine's side considering he's only made one post showing he's online but stopped saying anything afterwards, however on my end, to give you context to the vote, I recently played a game as an IC and Pine had day talk as scum and manipulated me throughout the game till I sided with him in LyLo and lost the game for town and said I'd vote Pine every game we play together that has daytalk.

I'd love to be able to tell mods in advance what roles to give Pine and I but the likelihood of me playing a game with Pine and I on opposite factions to set up a grudge vote scum theatre just for this game IF we both happened to roll scum would be a god like miracle. However, as much as I wish that was actually true, it is literally a close to impossible scenario, ergo the most logical conclusion is to not treat it as such and wait for more substance throughout the thread before you think you honestly caught 2/X scums when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them.

You are claiming that it is very unlikely, for both you and Pine to both be scum in the same game, however the roles are chosen randomly, and I believe in a random order. So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum, it is unlikely but go with it. If Pine was first to get a role, then you, there'd still be a high chance of you both being scum:
For Pine to be Scum: 9/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be scum: 8/18
Therefore, For both to be Scum: Roughly 21/100

So it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', ever.

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

And, the reason for this totally useless nonsense is _____?

4-5 scum is a more logical coonclusion for the scum ratio. 9 scum in a 19p NORMAL game has probably a 1 in a Million chance AT BEST. (Most likely, there is a 0 zero chance of that happening cuz that makes Day 1 LyLo and could still screw town w/ a perfect game if it's multiball)

4/19 * 3/18 = 12 / (152 + 190) = 12 / 342 = 4 / 114 = 2 / 57 or <4% chance.
VOTE: Debi

[Alisae]

Ircher why don't you attempt to ask where he has played instead of trying to get a sense of what his normalcy is?

[Pine]

If she'd been a genuine newbie, I could let that go, but she isn't.

This is the part where I advocate for debi and say that it's their first game on site.

Her first post is to /in for this game, then a few here. Such a direct entrance, nothing in newbie, no confusion or questions, that isn't a newbie. It's an alt.

PEdit: That explains things somewhat, but your statistics nonsense is utter horsecrap, don't think that it's at all useful. What is,

is.

That kind of odds assessment is only really valid prior to randomization, after the fact it isn't.

PEdit2: Ircher, stop feeding the math troll.

[Debi]

Lil Uzi Vert, I don't think of Gin as a scum as of yet, all that I think of him, is as a bit suspicious. He isn't necessarily scum, but I'm mainly going after him on that point for an answer on that sole point, nothing more to be honest.

Pine, reading into it too deeply is good, always. I mean, first impressions count right?

[Creature]

What forums are you from?

[Pine]

Lil Uzi Vert, I don't think of Gin as a scum as of yet, all that I think of him, is as a bit suspicious. He isn't necessarily scum, but I'm mainly going after him on that point for an answer on that sole point, nothing more to be honest.

Pine, reading into it too deeply is good, always. I mean, first impressions count right?

Reading too deeply = trying too hard.

Yes, first impressions are important, and you're failing yours.

[Pine]

W/E I'll give Debi a pass for now. New to site is new to site.

Site culture is different here, Debi. Adapt.

[Debi]

What forums are you from?

I'm from 2 forums, DuelAcademy (Yugioh forum) and another Yugioh Forum, which both took part in mafia games. A few years ago, I was on a forum called WolfWars, which was a mafia game, around 3 years ago I think, so its probably either beent aken down or had a name change by now.

[Creature]

Though, not even ToS forums use 7 town, 6 mafia and 6 third parties lol

[Debi]

Lil Uzi Vert, I don't think of Gin as a scum as of yet, all that I think of him, is as a bit suspicious. He isn't necessarily scum, but I'm mainly going after him on that point for an answer on that sole point, nothing more to be honest.

Pine, reading into it too deeply is good, always. I mean, first impressions count right?

Reading too deeply = trying too hard.

Yes, first impressions are important, and you're failing yours.

I'd see it as:
Trying to hard = Wanting to win and do well
Also:
Reading too deeply = The way I like to play
(Reading too deeply ~/~ Trying too hard)

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Lil Uzi Vert, I don't think of Gin as a scum as of yet, all that I think of him, is as a bit suspicious. He isn't necessarily scum, but I'm mainly going after him on that point for an answer on that sole point, nothing more to be honest.

Pine, reading into it too deeply is good, always. I mean, first impressions count right?

Well this makes me feel like you were stretching to find a reason to place a vote down but I'm not sure if it's because I'm a idiot and couldn't understand anything you were saying earlier.

[Debi]

Sorry a little disclaimer before I go into any bigger posts later on:
I have problems with wording sometimes
Also its REALLY hard to read considering how quickly you are posting

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Yeah this game jumped out the gate rather quickly. Odd with the holidays and all.

[Wraith]

TheRealGin-N-Tonic, there is something I'm failing to understand to do with your current actions in the round. You have voted to lynch Pine, which is all well and done, at this point in the game, 99% of the votes, won't have any ulterior motive behind them whatsoever, which is fine, if you don't have any main reason to be voting for Pine. However, you have currently created a contradiction, when trying to prove that your vote on Pine is legit, and has reasoning. The main problem with it, is as below:

It might be one-sided on Pine's side considering he's only made one post showing he's online but stopped saying anything afterwards, however on my end, to give you context to the vote, I recently played a game as an IC and Pine had day talk as scum and manipulated me throughout the game till I sided with him in LyLo and lost the game for town and said I'd vote Pine every game we play together that has daytalk.

I'd love to be able to tell mods in advance what roles to give Pine and I but the likelihood of me playing a game with Pine and I on opposite factions to set up a grudge vote scum theatre just for this game IF we both happened to roll scum would be a god like miracle. However, as much as I wish that was actually true, it is literally a close to impossible scenario, ergo the most logical conclusion is to not treat it as such and wait for more substance throughout the thread before you think you honestly caught 2/X scums when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them.

You are claiming that it is very unlikely, for both you and Pine to both be scum in the same game, however the roles are chosen randomly, and I believe in a random order. So just for the sake of it, lets say we had 10 towns in this game, and 9 scum, it is unlikely but go with it. If Pine was first to get a role, then you, there'd still be a high chance of you both being scum:
For Pine to be Scum: 9/19
If Pine is Scum, For Gin to be scum: 8/18
Therefore, For both to be Scum: Roughly 21/100

So it wouldn't be a 'god like miracle', ever.

Also another thing, when voting for somebody, you might thing they are suspicious or whatever. Therefore I have a question for you. If you are wanting to vote Pine, and argue for the vote on Pine, why are you suggesting he might not be scum via the 'when you're already wrong about at least 1 of them'???

UNVOTE: Alisae
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

And, the reason for this totally useless nonsense is _____?

4-5 scum is a more logical coonclusion for the scum ratio. 9 scum in a 19p NORMAL game has probably a 1 in a Million chance AT BEST. (Most likely, there is a 0 zero chance of that happening cuz that makes Day 1 LyLo and could still screw town w/ a perfect game if it's multiball)

4/19 * 3/18 = 12 / (152 + 190) = 12 / 342 = 4 / 114 = 2 / 57 or <4% chance.
VOTE: Debi

I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi

[Creature]

Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum.

Implying there's 9 scum and Debi knows that?

[Wraith]

Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum.

Implying there's 9 scum and Debi knows that?

In her second post of the game, using a 10 town/9 scum ratio as basis for a hypothetical is extremely unusual.

Frankly in a closed setup, that isn't a draft, and is a Normal, setup speculation right off the bat is not all that viable considering the majority of town players are going to have absolutely no information on the setup. So why bother unless you already have inside information?

So my primary conclusion is that Debi likely has some kind of setup foreknowledge to be making such a hypothetical so early. My secondary is that if Debi has setup foreknowledge, then her hypothetical implies that her foreknowledge is that the game is multiball. But the secondary can't be confirmed until she flips.

Either way the primary is enough for me to put down an initial vote.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I fucking love maths

[Zachstralkita]

I have a problem with both Debi's logic and people voting Debi for such logic.

[Creature]

I'll leave that even a multiball is unbalanced if town is only one more than the number of anti-town.