Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #850 (ISO) » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:21 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

Summary of this game so far from my perspective:

Toasty: I think Salamance is scum!

Salamance flips scum
Toasty: Could be Xayzeck, but I'm more sure on CTD/Iecerint

*gets ignored as usual because this playerlist is lazy (and yeah, I'm also not the best articulating my rationale for scum but that doesn't make me more incorrect than anyone else)
Toasty: crap, out of time. Well, Aronis is a slightly better lynch than Nacho, I guess...

Aronis flips town
Nacho gets modkilled but was town
Toasty: no lynch is fine but its just going to result in bigger town reads getting killed (*cough Dry-fit who was only not a town read for...CTD, I believe?)

Dry-fit gets night killed

Now:
Iece and CTD: let's waste time determining whether or not there is one or two scum!!

Iece: Yeah Toasty is dumb he even missed a correction I made to an earlier post wow he lacks critical thinking skills Let's discredit him and suggest he's scum because THAT makes sense


Toasty: Yeah, Iece. If you are a master of critical thinking at mafia then you should go back to mafia school because IT ISN'T WORKING. If there is one scum, its you. If there are two, its still you. And I knew it from day 1. Be bitter if you want to.
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Post Post #851 (ISO) » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:45 pm

Post by Iecerint »

I did not say that I was a master of mafia; I said that your reactions to my posts suggest that you are not reading them to determine my alignment, which is most consistent with you being scum (OR, with you not being a very good player -- YMMV on what makes a good player, etc).

In other words, I do not think you are dumb -- I think you are scum. The possibility that you could simply be dumb is the Toasty-Town possibility of which I am increasingly skeptical.

I looked back over the Salamence pressure you're apparently so proud of from D1. I mostly just remembered being annoyed at you D1, but I guess the pressure was kinda legitimate. The only funky thing is your weird vote for Xayzeck after StrangerCoug had pointed out the sketchiness of his claim and then I had characterized it. But I guess you did switch to voting with me like 2-3 minutes after that, so meh.
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Post Post #852 (ISO) » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:48 pm

Post by Iecerint »

I thought Xayzeck was the most likely scum going into today, for the same active lurking you pointed out somewhere early in your iso, but CTD's claim means it is only even possible for him to be scum if there are 2 scum and they are scum together, so I am having to think about other possibilities.
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Post Post #853 (ISO) » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:54 pm

Post by Iecerint »

(Neither here nor there, but Dryfit was pretty null for me until the day dragged on and on and he towntold like 3-4 consecutive times, which is why you always NL immediately if you are going to do it, etc.)
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Post Post #854 (ISO) » Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:59 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Which reminds me:
In post 772, Iecerint wrote:Like, I understand the instinct to react to people's understanding of the logic of the nightkill as scummy, but StrangerCoug was not a complicated kill at all, and pretending otherwise is just contributing to making the game harder than it needs to be (or it is INTENTIONALLY trying to make the game harder than it needs to be, which is how I read it tbf, but you aren't all scum).

In post 773, Iecerint wrote:Again, for the sake of clarification in case Toasty's narcissism gets in the way again, that is directly (mainly) at Dryfit.

In post 774, Iecerint wrote:I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

I made these posts after realizing that Dryfit was town. The context was that I was pretty sure he thought it was scummy that I had thought it was so clear that StrangerCoug was town, so, having realized that he was town due to his trying to determine my alignment (even though his conclusion was wrong, because he didn't have all the information that I had available to me), I tried to help him understand why my read on SC was as strong as it was (by giving him the rest of the information).

This sequence of things would never occur to someone who is scum unless they are doing seriously next-level shit. If Toasty thinks I am incompetent at the game, it is (again) parsimonious to assume I am simply town.
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Post Post #855 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:49 am

Post by Xayzeck »

In post 844, Iecerint wrote:The nature of that slip should basically confirm to anyone reading very carefully that CTD and Iece cannot be scum together btw, unless we are making improbable and unnecessary fake townslip gambits.

Maybe it's just me but I don't completely follow on this
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Post Post #856 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 2:50 am

Post by Xayzeck »

In post 850, ToastyToast wrote:Summary of this game so far from my perspective:

Toasty: I think Salamance is scum!

Salamance flips scum
Toasty: Could be Xayzeck, but I'm more sure on CTD/Iecerint

*gets ignored as usual because this playerlist is lazy (and yeah, I'm also not the best articulating my rationale for scum but that doesn't make me more incorrect than anyone else)
Toasty: crap, out of time. Well, Aronis is a slightly better lynch than Nacho, I guess...

Aronis flips town
Nacho gets modkilled but was town
Toasty: no lynch is fine but its just going to result in bigger town reads getting killed (*cough Dry-fit who was only not a town read for...CTD, I believe?)

Dry-fit gets night killed

Now:
Iece and CTD: let's waste time determining whether or not there is one or two scum!!

Iece: Yeah Toasty is dumb he even missed a correction I made to an earlier post wow he lacks critical thinking skills Let's discredit him and suggest he's scum because THAT makes sense


Toasty: Yeah, Iece. If you are a master of critical thinking at mafia then you should go back to mafia school because IT ISN'T WORKING. If there is one scum, its you. If there are two, its still you. And I knew it from day 1. Be bitter if you want to.

This would be just writing off your whole play as whiteknighting, no? Like, oh I got my first scumread right, here's proof, follow my reads in potential lylo!
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Post Post #857 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:02 am

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 830, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 829, Iecerint wrote:Re: "what I am saying here": 5 players, 2 scum. 1 scum is neighborized to 1 town. One of these is lynched -> 3 players, 1 scum. Nightkill. Scum win. But it's true that this is more flexible if 1 scum remains.

You probably don't disagree that that's the only interpretation from my POV, unless you're saying 1 scum remains.


OK, I could not for the life of me figure what you meant, then I got it. Secret Admirer. Scum could be tied to town or town to scum, or town to town which means we have to be careful. Guessing scum would not tie to scum.

I'll think through permuations later.


If scum got it, they loverize town, so that if they are killed, they take a townie with them.
3:2
lynch scum, town dies
2:1
NK- scum wins

Town got it, loverize scum
3:2
lynch town, scum dies
2:1
NK-scum wins

Town got it, loverize town
3:2
lynch scum
3:1
NK- 66% scum win, 33% 2:1 lylo

Town got it, loverize town
3:2
lynch non-lover town,
2:2 scum win

Town got it, loverize town
3:2
lynch town lover
1:2 scum win

Ok, some of this is modified by where the BP is. If scum have it, it looks really bad. If town has it, the first 2 scenarios go to lylo.

And yes, this is the 2 left theory. CTD can do the one left theory.
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Post Post #858 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:04 am

Post by PeregrineV »

But the lover thing is only one way, so mitigates some of those numbers.
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Post Post #859 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:01 am

Post by Iecerint »

In post 855, Xayzeck wrote:
In post 844, Iecerint wrote:The nature of that slip should basically confirm to anyone reading very carefully that CTD and Iece cannot be scum together btw, unless we are making improbable and unnecessary fake townslip gambits.

Maybe it's just me but I don't completely follow on this

CTD made a claim that assumed 1 scum, I extrapolated from it assuming 2 scum. That's not the kind of interaction that scumfriends have unless it is very self-conscious.

IIRC we had another interaction like that D3 because I think I remember mentioning it after someone (maybe Toasty?) mentioned we might be scum together, but I can't remember what it was.
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Post Post #860 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:43 am

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 856, Xayzeck wrote:This would be just writing off your whole play as whiteknighting, no? Like, oh I got my first scumread right, here's proof, follow my reads in potential lylo!


Isn't white-knighting when you hard-defend someone who is being attacked by other players? Because that's not what I've done as all, and I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you are referring to Aronis/Nacho, then you probably haven't read the game (shocker).

I had a null read on Aronis at the time of his lynch, but we were out of time so I preferred lynching a null read to obv town
Nacho was not being attacked by a majority, and I did not really defend him. I attacked the people attacking him because their reasons were super shitty.
My biggest town-reads throughout the game were Dry-fit and Nacho. Countering arguments you see as poor or misguided
is not
akin to white-knighting.

As for the second part, its more like:
"Oh, look at all these dead people, and look at how many time we've been
wrong
. Perhaps we should look at the dead people and see what we can glean from them? Perhaps if we've been following one line of process of elimination bullshit that has
failed
thus far we should, idk,
TRY SOMETHING NEW?
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Post Post #861 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:44 am

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 851, Iecerint wrote:I did not say that I was a master of mafia; I said that your reactions to my posts suggest that you are not reading them to determine my alignment, which is most consistent with you being scum (OR, with you not being a very good player -- YMMV on what makes a good player, etc).


And you come to this conclusion because I missed a correction.

And how exactly do you expect me react? Lol its ok iece xoxo I'm happy you think I'm either scum or stupid <3

Which is a false dilemma fallacy btw, and it is an attempt to discredit my worth as a player in the game.

To further explain:
wow I dislike his reaction because ??. Therefore he must be
a) dumb
b) scum

there is no way he could be:
c) town reacting to an attack made on his gameplay
d) town reacting to an attack made on his allignment
e) town who is way beyond a change of their read on you

(all of which are true, in this case). You say this knowing full well that I am a person who would NEVER accept being addressed as dumb, too. I mean, very few people would, and you seem to suggest that defending myself is somehow an indicator of scum?

In post 852, Iecerint wrote:I thought Xayzeck was the most likely scum going into today, for the same active lurking you pointed out somewhere early in your iso, but CTD's claim means it is only even possible for him to be scum if there are 2 scum and they are scum together, so I am having to think about other possibilities.


You mean you are running out of reads you can fake.

Give me one ACTUAL reason as to why I could be scum other than Process of Elimination bullshit.
Also, if you were searching for new scum reads based on new potential evidence, perhaps you would look at
the dead people


In post 854, Iecerint wrote:This sequence of things would never occur to someone who is scum unless they are doing seriously next-level shit. If Toasty thinks I am incompetent at the game, it is (again) parsimonious to assume I am simply town.


my read has nothing to do with your incompetence.........if you were actually reading my posts maybe you would realize that. But then again the few times I've played with you, I haven't really been in awe of your critical thinking skills. So you are either dumb town or scum.
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Post Post #862 (ISO) » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:09 pm

Post by Iecerint »

You are correct that you could be an irrational person -- i.e., not a good player. That is not outside of the universe of possibilities that I am considering. You can mentally replace "dumb" with "irrational" or "plays scummy" if it makes you feel better. There are lots of high-profile players on this site who play that way, including players who do it proudly and encourage others to do it more so that they can win more (e.g., because it's easier to maintain a neutral meta when one draws scum if they cultivate that playstyle). (I am contemptuous of that trend, and it's going to be reflected in how I talk about people who play that way.)

The main difference between town and scum is that town want to figure out alignments and scum already know them. If you are playing in a way suggesting that the content in the thread is interesting to you NOT primarily to the extent that it helps you discern alignments, you are playing the game the way scum do. I noticed that you were interacting with posts that way, so I find you scummy. Yesterday, Dryfit was interacting with posts in a town way, and it made me think he was town (even though his conclusion was to suspect me <-- so NB that this is NOT a simple "people who suspect Iec are scum" situation). I have made how this tell works extremely clear by giving multiple examples.

Not sure what you mean by checking the dead people...the only unusual kill was the first one on Gemini....

I am reading your posts very carefully. That is why they have caused me to do things like go back and check your claimed D1 pressure on Salamance (which I even accepted to have been a thing). I have a hard time believing that you can see me do things like this and then think that I am ignoring your posts, since I went out of my way to do more work on reading your posts and found something that made you somewhat more likely to be town.

I have never argued that you are scum by Process of Elimination, except in the context of 2-scum, which I have mostly discounted at this point, anyway, and even in that case it was just one of a few possible pairings.
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Post Post #863 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:37 am

Post by Xayzeck »

In post 860, ToastyToast wrote:Isn't white-knighting when you hard-defend someone who is being attacked by other players? Because that's not what I've done as all, and I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you are referring to Aronis/Nacho, then you probably haven't read the game (shocker).

In my experience, it's defending someone or pushing for someone whose alignment you know, be it a scum or skills, and once they flip you can get other people to sheep you.
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Post Post #864 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:49 am

Post by CrashTextDummie »

In post 828, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 824, CrashTextDummie wrote:Except there is almost certainly only one scum left. I take it you disagree?


I saw the post, but you get why accepting that at face value isn't going to happen, right?


Not really, no. I don't accept "minis usually have 3 scum" as an argument. 13 player games usually have 3 scum. When the town has a significant power edge. This game doesn't have either. It's not hugely relevant anymore because we have to lynch anyway and either the game will end or not. But you too should have made your argument yesterday.

In post 833, ToastyToast wrote:Interesting this all of a sudden CtD and Iecerint aren't bff's


Interesting in what way? Is it indicative of either one of us being scum? Is it indicative of us being scum together? This is such a suggestive comment, it makes my skin crawl.

I have a problem with Iece's use (or rather lack thereof) of power role, much as he seemed to have a problem with me claiming yesterday, but I don't think it makes him scum.

What I find way more problematic is you trying to insinuate that me questioning a previous town read is not kosher when I literally have no choice but to question previous town reads. I also in retrospect find it suspect for you to railroad me for having terrible reads before half of them were actually confirmed to be bad, and you chastising me and Iece for supposedly "wasting time" by discussing an aspect of the set up that is or was absolutely vital to figuring out correct town play rings false to me as well.

I think the scum made a huge mistake in killing Dry-fit and allowing me to confirm a player and that also points towards Toasty as the guilty party in my eyes since he evidently considers me highly lynchable.
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Post Post #865 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:33 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

I think you can pretty easily infer that I think you and Iecerint are scum buddies. I've said so multiple times in the past.

And the two of you are doing
exactly
what I would expect scum to do. whoopdefucking do you confirmed someone. That doesn't mean shit.
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Post Post #866 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:34 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

And it is a complete waste of time. Trying to dig for set up doesn't lead to anything
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Post Post #867 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:39 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 864, CrashTextDummie wrote:It's not hugely relevant anymore because we have to lynch anyway and either the game will end or not.



In post 864, CrashTextDummie wrote:you chastising me and Iece for supposedly "wasting time" by discussing an aspect of the set up that is or was absolutely vital to figuring out correct town play rings false to me as well.


K.
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Post Post #868 (ISO) » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:24 pm

Post by Iecerint »

I wish Peregrine would post.
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Post Post #869 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:49 am

Post by RedCoyote »

Aries' Daily Horoscope:
Be careful about being manipulated by another person today, Aries. It's possible that someone is putting words in your mouth in order to get you to act a certain way. Don't fall into this trap. Be your own person and think for yourself. Your mind is susceptible and vulnerable now. Use your eyes and ears as a filter and don't let people unload their garbage on you.


Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:
Powerful thoughts are running through your brain. You will find that this information can be transforming, Aquarius. The key is to learn from others and incorporate opposing viewpoints into your state of mind. Don't automatically disregard the opinion of another just because it contradicts your own beliefs. Teamwork is the name of the game on a day like today.


Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:
Communication is flowing smoothly today, Sagittarius, so take advantage of this and get the word out. It's important for you to make connections with other people now. Run with your instincts and feel free to enter into debates. Your words and tone of voice are very convincing. You could sell anything to anyone today.


Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:
Your mind might be stimulated today, Scorpio, so stay alert and open to new information. If you feel tired, take a short nap. It's better to operate at top speed and full capacity than go through your day only half present. Don't rely on external stimulants like caffeine to pick you up. These things will deceive your body and do damage to your nervous system.


Virgo's Daily Horoscope:
Don't worry about probing too deeply today, Virgo. Trust people more than you normally would. You will find that things go much more smoothly if you approach them from a neutral or positive and not accusatory position. Listen to the people you care about the most. They're trying to convey important information. You might not want to hear it now, but in the long run, it's in everyone's best interests that you do.


Pere is V/LA until tomorrow.





Vote Count 4 - 2


  • Not Voting (5) (♒ PeregrineV - ♐ Xayzeck - ♈ ToastyToast - ♏ CrashTextDummie - ♍ Iecerint)


With five alive, it takes three to lynch.
Current Deadline:
(expired on 2014-10-23 19:00:00)
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Post Post #870 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:45 am

Post by Iecerint »

It's really hard not to read those horoscopes as game-relevant. XD
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Post Post #871 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:51 am

Post by Iecerint »

Toasty's behavior seems like he entered today with an "easiest path to wincon" agenda and isn't deviating from it or reevaluating it in the face of new information. That is something that I do only when I am scum. I have a hard time believing that he is town.

Peregrine being scum makes relative sense with Salamence's daykill D1. I would feel silly if Nacho called this D1 and then Pere just kind of lurked along to a win.

CTD/Xayzeck I think are only scum in set-up situations where winning is basically impossible. CTD had no need to claim roleblocker as scum (counterargument: she had no need to claim it as town, either, so it may have been an attempt to obtain towncred, and then she had to claim a target). Xayzeck can only be scum if there are 2 scum (or he had a secret strongman ability).

That is my view of everyone right now.
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Post Post #872 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:06 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 868, Iecerint wrote:I wish Peregrine would post.


Really hard to play when only 3 people are talking. If town loses it's because of inactivity.
Will respond when I'm not on a phone, as I do have some things to say
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Post Post #873 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:19 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 862, Iecerint wrote:You are correct that you could be an irrational person -- i.e., not a good player. That is not outside of the universe of possibilities that I am considering. You can mentally replace "dumb" with "irrational" or "plays scummy" if it makes you feel better. There are lots of high-profile players on this site who play that way, including players who do it proudly and encourage others to do it more so that they can win more (e.g., because it's easier to maintain a neutral meta when one draws scum if they cultivate that playstyle). (I am contemptuous of that trend, and it's going to be reflected in how I talk about people who play that way.)


....I often get labelled as playing scummy but that doesn't make me any worse a player than you. And yes, I take offense to you saying so. Shocking that I would.

My point is you are arguing that I can only be one of two things without any basis to come to that conclusion.

I am not a player who is about making cases, nor am I amazing at convincing people that my reads are correct. That doesn't make me a shitty player. It just makes it tougher for me to get taken seriously. None of this is allignment indicative.

In post 862, Iecerint wrote:The main difference between town and scum is that town want to figure out alignments and scum already know them. If you are playing in a way suggesting that the content in the thread is interesting to you NOT primarily to the extent that it helps you discern alignments, you are playing the game the way scum do.


This is fundamentally untrue. For one, there are TONS of instances in which town players have "fixed" reads. Tunnelling is a common occurrence, and, again, not alignment indicative. In fact, if you are going for meta, I probably tunnel way more as town because I have a lot of confidence in my reads once I form them. My being
confident
in the reads I have does not make me scum. I've already discerned the alignments. In my mind the only thing that could change this is participation for Xayzeck and Peregrine, which has been minimal throughout the game.

Good scum play by going with the flow of a game. This means that their reads can change, or they could not. You seem to suggest that I'm not using any information to form my reads, when I have formed my reads over the course of four days. I didn't have a scum read on CTD day one. In fact, I thought burn was leaning town. Additionally, whereas I don't think claiming roleblocker clears CTD, note that I DID give him the chance to use it because I thought it could be gamechanging if true. I'm not as inflexible as you suggest.

In post 871, Iecerint wrote:Toasty's behavior seems like he entered today with an "easiest path to wincon" agenda and isn't deviating from it or reevaluating it in the face of new information. That is something that I do only when I am scum. I have a hard time believing that he is town.


Also, scumplay is dependent on the others within the game. I am not usually one to get into WIFOM/"well if I were scum" moments, but I think it is valid here. I am not an idiot. I do fairly well as scum, the few times I've had the chance to play (which, granted, is only 3 times--4 if you include my 3rd party win).

Whether there is one scum or two, if I were one of those scum, keeping Dry-fit alive would allow me to auto win. He had a STRONG town read on me, and we had the same opinions on the player list. I highly doubt he would have a sudden shift in logic if alive. In addition, Dry-fit had way more influence this game than myself, and I as scum could easily sheep him to victory.

The reason why I think mentioning this is appropriate is because this isn't really a situation where you can say "well, maybe you did that to throw off the trail!!!!!"

Like, if scum, I would have had a 95% chance of winning with Dry-fit still in the game.

If I am somehow being inflexible or coming to conclusions without using new information, then so are you.

In post 862, Iecerint wrote:I am reading your posts very carefully.


Then why do you think my read on you is based on perceived incompetence?

In post 862, Iecerint wrote:I have never argued that you are scum by Process of Elimination, except in the context of 2-scum, which I have mostly discounted at this point, anyway, and even in that case it was just one of a few possible pairings.


...Which means you have argued I'm scum by process of elimination at some point.

In post 863, Xayzeck wrote:
In post 860, ToastyToast wrote:Isn't white-knighting when you hard-defend someone who is being attacked by other players? Because that's not what I've done as all, and I don't know how you come to that conclusion. If you are referring to Aronis/Nacho, then you probably haven't read the game (shocker).

In my experience, it's defending someone or pushing for someone whose alignment you know, be it a scum or skills, and once they flip you can get other people to sheep you.


This is the best definition I could find for the given situation:

In forum parlance, it means rushing to the aid of another poster for whatever reason. An accusation typically reserved for when a poster is being hammered by another poster(s) and the accused leaps in to defend them, usually without thinking things through as to why the person is being attacked.
"A train robbery is where you take a train to your destination, make your move, and take a train back, right?"-Isaac

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Post Post #874 (ISO) » Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:40 pm

Post by Iecerint »

You asked for a reason for my read on you "other than PoE," suggesting that you were aware of only a PoE case on you. The main basis of my read on you is not based on PoE, but based on what it looks like you're taking away from the thread.

To be honest, I don't really know why you have a scum read on me. Your posts about me are mostly rhetoric instead of analysis AFAICT (for example, your post that had the "you mean you can't make up any more cases" bit instead of engaging with anything I had said, or yesterday when you said you made me mad instead of engaging with anything I had said, etc). Similar to what I previously described, I find this kind of scummy.

If your answer to my criticism is basically "I am an irrational player and will not towntell because I do not play like a town player," then that might be totally valid for you, but it is not going to really help me to determine your alignment. I think it is a selfish way to play the game. It's not like playing a town game during lylo is going to ruin your D1-D3 scumgame.

I agree that Xayzeck and especially Peregrine posting more is pretty important. Peregrine is apparently back from V/LA tomorrow, though.
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