Shaman Mafia [Endgame]

[UshiromiyaAnge]

TTH is still town.

Hito, AP, and... hmmm.

[UshiromiyaAnge]

Or...

Hmmm. I feel really strongly Spiffeh and Egg are town. Either of them would have to be very good at being active, being inquisitive, and just not giving too many fucks as scum for them to be scum.

Brian, that self-vote yesterday hurt me. Would he pull that gambit as scum? I feel more like it's frustrated town angry that no one is listening.

That leaves Copper, AP, Hito, and TTH. What I find weirdest is Hito not wanting to be on the ritual yesterday. I feel that as scum a good strategy is to get one and

exactly

one on the ritual. While town just want to be on the ritual in the right spot. And hito was super not giving a fuck if he was on the ritual.

HITO YOU SCUM BRO?

[hitogoroshi]

What I find weirdest is Hito not wanting to be on the ritual yesterday. I feel that as scum a good strategy is to get one and exactly one on the ritual. While town just want to be on the ritual in the right spot. And hito was super not giving a fuck if he was on the ritual.

HITO YOU SCUM BRO?

I'm a power animal and not a shaman. At least circa D2 I found Egg's spec plausible. I'm not sure how much I believe it seeing as it's still five slots on the D3 ritual, though.

[Brian Skies]

That makes me sad but I guess do what you feel like you have to. I still feel like UA is scum, and them fading into the background after Day 1 reinforces that but I don't have any hope of anybody listening to me today.

What are your other reads?

I also have a different perspective of UA, as I feel they have had a pretty solidly strong presence this game, at least compared to players like Spiffeh and Egg.

[copper223]

I'm having a very busy week and will be traveling tomorrow and Friday, will post more on the week-end.

For now:

- Brian, possibly scum, waiting for further developments though.

- Egg, if Brian flips scum, his most likely buddy, he has been backing him up while not really backing him up all game. He was one of the first to look for a bus on Yakko in the upper world n1 thread, I noted that he possibly knows that happened and was being "truthful" with that read.

- TTH, meta completely different from what I am used to seeing from her (both town and scum), I don't know what's going on there, willing to lynch.

- UA, I still think they are town but less sanguine about it as they are not answering about the block issue and I am not fond of some of the reads they gave.

- Hito, I also think he is town although he seemed very town early on but has since faded in the background a bit and that is worrisome, I disagreed with his AP push as well but didn't find it scummy necessarily.

- AP, also town, I noted that Brian said AP being wishy-washy is sometimes a scumtell for him, he has been very wishy-washy this game so I would expect a scumread there but that says more about Brian, from my pov. the read evolution is consistent with him screwing up on Yakko, then getting flak from UA because of it and possibly suffering from OMGUS and backing down from it, the one-off read I don't follow (like TTH apparently) is the Spiffeh scumtell he has had for a long time.

- Spiffeh, I also have as town, don't see any benefit in his crazy line about being haunted in the QT as scum and the reaction seemed genuine, on the other hand he is coasting hard and the latest set of posts isn't helping any.

In short, you are all pretty scummy mofas (said jokingly)... will try to answer direct questions, otherwise back on Saturday.

@mod: semi V/LA until Saturday

[Egg]

Prod dodge

[Brian Skies]

I noted that Brian said AP being wishy-washy is sometimes a scumtell for him

No I didn't. I said the opposite.

[Brian Skies]

UNVOTE: TellTaleHeart

[AngryPidgeon]

Egg still looks town. Minor paranoia about the softing. I've mostly seen town-egg in the past. He did fool me once as a SK for most of a game until I kind of PoE'd him out a little. I was a waffly mess that game. I don't think Egg is scum here though, I think hes calm. I recall his scum behavior looking a bit more guilty. Needing to interact with people, but kind of following rather than probing. I think this is town-egg.

I should have a better grasp on Espeonage. I remember disliking a lot of his content. The bit where he voted for Nacho over Yakko in particular. Copper talked about that at length yesterday and I do sympathize with his point that Espeonage's logical progression does make sense. Its not too hard to see where he was directing his attention in ISO. Voting for Nacho and FoSing Yakko is a pretty bold move to make as scum in that situation, honestly. Maybe I am basing this opinion on a lack of respect for his scumgame, but I don't feel too shameful in doing that.

Brian and Copper are reads that I really want to just commit to. Toogeloo calling them town and dying fits the narrative. I don't see why either of them would go for a wifom play in that scenario when there are other decent kills (egg, hito?). Toog was going to defend them. Toog getting shot also suggests someone thought he was softing PR results or otherwise informed. So. That isn't concrete stuff, I'll admit, but a fair number of Brian and Copper posts look town to me on top of that.

Spiffeh is sort of becoming a PoE suspect due to being on the failing 2nd ritual and mostly coasting through the game. I don't mean that as a dig on him or his playstyle, I mean that I think hes probably just scum here.

[Brian Skies]

We still need a drummer.

[UshiromiyaAnge]

Volunteer: Drummer

[UshiromiyaAnge]

Being totally honest, I wanted to stay off this ritual today, to see who would go for it, but no one seems to want to.

I find that extremely odd, makes me wonder if there isn't already a scum volunteering for this ritual, and they don't care to nominate themselves for this last spot since they don't need more than one on.

-LLD

[Brian Skies]

I'm bothered that we're essentially stuck with the same group that failed the ritual last time.

I know TTH can journey, and it worries me that her actions last night have yet to have been accounted for.

[AngryPidgeon]

You think she might be responsible for what went down in the Middle PT?

[Egg]

Prod dodge. I'll be back late tonight

[TellTaleHeart]

That makes me sad but I guess do what you feel like you have to. I still feel like UA is scum, and them fading into the background after Day 1 reinforces that but I don't have any hope of anybody listening to me today.

What are your other reads?

I also have a different perspective of UA, as I feel they have had a pretty solidly strong presence this game, at least compared to players like Spiffeh and Egg.

That was exactly my point, emphasis on the past tense of "had" a solidly strong presence.

Just off the top of my head, I still have a pretty stale townreads on Egg and Spiffeh. I remember generally liking the open way Egg was talking about his role and his reads and methods make enough sense. Spiffeh I was townreading mostly because his footprint on the game seems to pretty closely match this other one I just got out of with him. I think you and AP are a lot more likely to be town than not. AP's mind is wandering in a way that suggests his posting doesn't have an agenda. In retrospect on the Yakko push, I also think it's unlikely he defended a scumbuddy and then pooped out at the end without even trying to transition to bussing. All my reads are way past their "sell by" date so I should probably do something to refresh them, not to mention I forgot who else is even in this game. :S

By the way, I was in the Middle World last night! I was confused because I got two links for two QT threads and I didn't have the time or patience to sort out what was happening in each or who was even in each. I'm pretty certain Katsuki and camn were posting in one of them and I remember thinking it was weird.

[Spiffeh]

Wow you're scum aren't you

[Brian Skies]

You think she might be responsible for what went down in the Middle PT?

I thought it was a possibility. I wasn't expecting her to openly admit to having access to that QT.

[Brian Skies]

By the way, I was in the Middle World last night! I was confused because I got two links for two QT threads and I didn't have the time or patience to sort out what was happening in each or who was even in each. I'm pretty certain Katsuki and camn were posting in one of them and I remember thinking it was weird.

What was this other QT and why haven't you been volunteering for rituals.

[Spiffeh]

Why wasn't this information offered up immediately?

[Egg]

AP, I know you said it's not something you'd actually support but what made you think of the no lynch thing? Like what benefit did you initially think there might be?

 If my assumptions are correct, then lynching On is still a better play but in reality its likely a choose one from Column A and one from Column B scenario.

By this logic, lynching off would be better because it's a higher chance to hit scum (33%). Although I don't see any reason to assume one on one of.

Hmmm. I feel really strongly Spiffeh and Egg are town. Either of them would have to be very good at being active, being inquisitive, and just not giving too many fucks as scum for them to be scum. 

I give plenty of fucks. Maybe too many at times. The trouble isn't how many fucks I'm giving or not giving. I'm just having a hard time. But last night's result has at least made the night game interesting for me. And then Spiff's stuff. I feel really good about Spiff, Brian, and AP being town. I guess it's turning into a PoE kind of deal for me to an extent and that can come off as not giving fucks because I don't attack much and it's hard to get in the middle of discussion that way. (And yes I realize you called me town with this, not scum, but I hate when people think I'm not trying in games. This shit consumes me sometimes. Mafia in general I mean.)

 feel that as scum a good strategy is to get one and exactly one on the ritual

Why?

By the way, I was in the Middle World last night! I was confused because I got two links for two QT threads and I didn't have the time or patience to sort out what was happening in each or who was even in each. I'm pretty certain Katsuki and camn were posting in one of them and I remember thinking it was weird.

You should probably go back and check those QTs and tell us exactly what happened and why you got two. Did you post in either? Did you talk to katcamn at all? Because I don't think Spiff said anything about you being there.

[TellTaleHeart]

By the way, I was in the Middle World last night! I was confused because I got two links for two QT threads and I didn't have the time or patience to sort out what was happening in each or who was even in each. I'm pretty certain Katsuki and camn were posting in one of them and I remember thinking it was weird.

What was this other QT and why haven't you been volunteering for rituals.

I'm not sure, I'd have to look again when I have a second. From what I gathered when I clicked on the links after I got them, it looks like the same people were posting in the threads so I don't know off the top of my head what the difference was.

I would have to be delusional to think the consensus would be OK with me being on the ritual given that my slot is pretty widely suspected.

Why wasn't this information offered up immediately?

I haven't been paying attention to the night aspect of this game especially given that since we input our names on QTs, there's actually even no way of knowing the people making the posts are who they say they are.

[AngryPidgeon]

AP, I know you said it's not something you'd actually support but what made you think of the no lynch thing? Like what benefit did you initially think there might be?

I had to think about this for a second since I'd forgotten mentioning that.

The ritual might not actually -do- anything. It might just be a soft investigate in that it tells town if there is mafia on it or not. Obviously there are other convoluting factors so I don't recommend attempting to game this mechanic. Its possible that the ritual is a strong soft-investigate mechanic though and we could have played the game by "following-the-cop" and using the ritual as an investigative thing. The presence of 'animals' makes that tricky though and I dont have definitive proof that this plan would even work.

[AngryPidgeon]

By this logic, lynching off would be better because it's a higher chance to hit scum (33%). Although I don't see any reason to assume one on one of.

I assume that there is [1-2] scum on the ritual and [0-1] off because it failed. That is concrete. I am hazarding a guess that we're looking at a 1-1 scenario rather than a 2-0, but that is based on a feeling I have and nothing more. So I'd prefer to lynch on since I can guarantee scum on there (imo) rather than off, but what you are saying makes sense.

Egg, Brian, and TTH are all town.

My top lynches today are Spiffeh and Hito. I'm still entirely 100% completely and unstoppably baffled by anyone townreading Spiffeh. For "not giving too many fucks" or "crazy line about PT". It makes me wonder if I'm wrong and hes being whiteknighted or some shit, but I don't really think I am. I think people are just underestimating his scum game.

[hitogoroshi]

I assume that there is [1-2] scum on the ritual and [0-1] off because it failed. That is concrete.

I do not think this is a particularly safe assumption. If we had succeed in the ritual D1, and the ritual was "If all town, success; else fail" I'm pretty sure the game is literally over for scum. That'd be 7 fuckin innos, neh? I'm sure the ritual has some more twiddly bits to it. "If all town and no animals, success; else fail" sounded right D2 but the numbers today are pretty awkward if Egg is town (3 non shamans + 3 scum = we need 5 of the 7 shamans alive to complete the ritual d3? And that's assuming everyone else is a shaman). If Egg is scum I guess 5 of 8 isn't insane, but why would Egg scum bring out that kind of spec if it was true, since it's encouraging him not to be on the ritual? Unless scum have an incentive to not be on the ritual I guess.

To be totally honest, looking at my role PM, it seems Fate is really into the flavor on this one and so I'm not putting much stock into anything ritual related. My PM encourages me to do reading on the Goddess related to my power animal, and it's not even a very obvious connection, so it seems like a pretty big hint that this flavor driven more than mechanically driven.

I think Spiffeh is town because his D1 play was hypermobile with vote before landing and sticking on scum, which is a good pattern. D2 was more questionable but it did seem like he really believed Staeg would flip scum, which I also believed, so maybe I'm biased. I don't like him not voting today but posting a lot, I guess. Also TTH is scum and TTH/Spiffeh is a bonkers scumteam.

Also, on the subject of TTH - has anyone

besides

TTH ever had two QT links in one night? I actually think one-QT-per-night might be a global rule for secret Hito reasons.