STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER


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Post Post #12300 (ISO) » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:01 pm

Post by Almost50 »

I still don't see why we should take the risk though. I mean, it's only worth it if grapes is Town (so as to confirm him as such, and use that to confirm someone else). If he is scum though, while we confirm him as scum it also carries the risk of a loss if he can kill his subject with it.

I'm of the opinion grapes is Scum, thus I fear the worst. If I thought he was Town then I would have been at ease with his release, which -I guess- is where Matina's at right now.

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Post Post #12301 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:31 am

Post by Shiro »

I never doubted random being conf almost.
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
About me:
I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #12302 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:42 am

Post by Shiro »

Btw assuming two scum left is dumb.

Legit

5 rubies and jasper is what it is. Peridot could have assisted scum.ad leftover but had the choice to turn. It makes no sense for anyone else to be Able to turn.

I know my opinion isn't if much value cause of how wrong I was but come on.

Mastin has the best plan btw.

Random I suggest you follow it.

Ideally you guys would see scum.is in almost v rr but I can't blame you not trusting me

So release grapes have him remove us from.tbe game, lynch rr and if game doesn't end bubble the other

GG
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shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #12303 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:45 am

Post by Shiro »

And honestly Eben if grapes was leftover that could turn, why would he? Town had the edge most of the game.

Grapes is conftown for me right now cause the game didn't end with his bubble. There just no way I can see 2 scum left being a thing. Especially thematically.
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Post Post #12304 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:57 am

Post by Shiro »

Honestly scum depend on you assuming two scum left otherwise both me and grapes are confirmed alongside ransom and Mastin.

Which leave 2 unknowns, which is auto win for town.

6 scum + 1 leftover + 4 gems + 14 human is what we are.

Assume two wrong lynches and two shot on humans

7 + 1 leftover scum 10 human, a wrong shot by our vig and lylo at day 3 on a 25 people game.

And that is assuming gems didn't accidentally bubbles a human which can end it even faster cause scum don't need gems dead. They lose if all humans die.

7 scum just doesn't add up
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shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #12305 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:59 am

Post by Shiro »

And they had double votes to spare if I recall which means they could have started forcing lynches.
To me:
shiro you are a charmer you were obvscum but for some reason people just wouldn't eliminate you ~Antihero
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I stg this is how conversations with Lucifer go. ~Papa Zito
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Post Post #12306 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:10 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 12270, Reasonably Rational wrote:I'm sorry but actually there is a flaw in the plan. A town!Shiro does
NOT
clear Grapes fully. It means that if there are two scum it would be Grapes plus one of [Us, A50]. A scum!Shiro flip clears Grapes and if the game continues obviously clears Grapes.

I need to talk to Cerb about how to bridge that uncertainty. I'm not entirely sure whether we can. I think we get two lynches for 3 candidates in that case.

I am pretty sure that's why we came to the conclusion that Grapes using his ability today was necessary in the first place. For example: if he takes A50 and exits the game and we lynch Shiro, the either the game ends or you bubble us and it's over in the morning. You can swap the lynch and bubble and it still works either way. Grapes' event is what allows us to have all possible scum out of the game all at once.

Think that through and respond ASAP. I've pinged Cerb to see if there's any way to fix the flaw in your plan or whether it is absolutely necessary to rely upon Grapes'e event being used today to ensure that we win.

~Drixx
In post 12275, Almost50 wrote:
In post 12268, Randomnamechange wrote:but the other Crystal Gems, especially MoI and
Skybird
deserve the win.
WHO?? :facepalm:
mb meant xkyfu
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Post Post #12307 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:31 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

@A50: From my perspective, our two plans are fundamentally identical. If grapes is town, we win 100% of the time. If he's scum, at some point a 50/50 could occur, either via a lynch or randoms bubbling.

That is unavoidable.

The difference between the plans is that ours allows a town!grapes scenario victory to occur before the scum night kill will even resolve, according to what random said, while allowing the very specific scenario of grapes event allowing an additional kill to pose a threat.

Let's talk about the likelihood of that being the case. Grapes additional power, the ability to return to the game during season finales, is a mark against it. The only reason for scum!grapes to have that utility is to enable them to pop back into the game without their partner, for instant endgame potential. In addition, the events of this game are designed to combat swinginess. If grapes event is truly only usable at high stress, which occurs when town has undergone a number of negative situations/the scum team is advantaged, it doesn't make sense to give them an extra kill in that scenario.

This, again, seems improbable to me.

Now your plan allows a victory after more nights and lynches, in he worst case scenario which simply allowed more opportunities for scum utility to come into play and steal the game from us.


Basically, imo both plans fail versus extra scum kills, the chances of an extra scum kill coming specifically from grapes event are slim, and our plan resolves the game state before scum even get to kill tonight.

That's why I support bringing back grapes and reacting appropriately to his actions. The upside is greater than thee downside when you consider the likelihood of each occurring.

@Shiro: running out of time at work, but I have a few comments about your six scum supposition that I'll outline in detail on my lunch break.
-Cerb
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Post Post #12308 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:47 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 12302, Shiro wrote:Btw assuming two scum left is dumb.

Legit

5 rubies and jasper is what it is. Peridot could have assisted scum.ad leftover but had the choice to turn. It makes no sense for anyone else to be Able to turn.

I know my opinion isn't if much value cause of how wrong I was but come on.

Mastin has the best plan btw.

Random I suggest you follow it.

Ideally you guys would see scum.is in almost v rr but I can't blame you not trusting me

So release grapes have him remove us from.tbe game, lynch rr and if game doesn't end bubble the other

GG
two scum is the most dangerous situation, so we do need to consider it.
if we have 1 scum as you suggest, my plan is foolproof.

are we going to consider the possibility of a two man scum team that isn't grapes/shiro?
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Post Post #12309 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:55 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12308, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 12302, Shiro wrote:Btw assuming two scum left is dumb.

Legit

5 rubies and jasper is what it is. Peridot could have assisted scum.ad leftover but had the choice to turn. It makes no sense for anyone else to be Able to turn.

I know my opinion isn't if much value cause of how wrong I was but come on.

Mastin has the best plan btw.

Random I suggest you follow it.

Ideally you guys would see scum.is in almost v rr but I can't blame you not trusting me

So release grapes have him remove us from.tbe game, lynch rr and if game doesn't end bubble the other

GG
two scum is the most dangerous situation, so we do need to consider it.
if we have 1 scum as you suggest, my plan is foolproof.

are we going to consider the possibility of a two man scum team that isn't grapes/shiro?
We are obligated to. All that we know for sure is that any two man team has to include one of them. It could be them both, but it isn't just them that could make a 2 man team.

That's why we believe the course of action necessary is to release grapes and have him take a suspect out of game with him. That leaves two of us in the suspect pool. Lynch us and bubble the other, or vice versa, and the game state will be such that all possible scum are either dead, out of game via Grapes' ability, or bubbled and according to MoI earlier in the game, bubbled counts and would trigger the win.

I was actually considering begging Mastin to see reason and endorse this plan because all others put forward leave a 50/50 choice somewhere, and while Grapes could go rogue (in which case there's an obvious response nobody but us seems to have considered), it seems to me much better to at least try to keep our win chance at 100% rather than just chop it in half out of fear that Grapes might not play along.

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Post Post #12310 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:54 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

In post 12304, Shiro wrote:Honestly scum depend on you assuming two scum left otherwise both me and grapes are confirmed alongside ransom and Mastin.

Which leave 2 unknowns, which is auto win for town.

6 scum + 1 leftover + 4 gems + 14 human is what we are.

Assume two wrong lynches and two shot on humans

7 + 1 leftover scum 10 human, a wrong shot by our vig and lylo at day 3 on a 25 people game.

And that is assuming gems didn't accidentally bubbles a human which can end it even faster cause scum don't need gems dead. They lose if all humans die.

7 scum just doesn't add up
Two problems with your assumptions Shiro.

1) First of all, though the idea of grapes as leftover turned scum has been the main thing we've discussed, there is a very prominent, though rarely on screen, threat to earth from season 2/3: Yellow Diamond. There's no reason why a seventh scum couldn't have simply existed from the start. There's even mechanical support for this idea because Xkfyu had an ability that allowed him to directly contact the leader of the threats to earth....something which occurred in the show when Peridot contacted Yellow Diamond.

2) The second issue is your supposition regarding balance in terms of scum v town numbers. Though you are, on the surface of things, correct regarding the worst case scenario, you have to consider that within that pool of non crystal gems you're supposing, there were 2 which were never going to be lynched(Titus could simply claim her IC power if ever at risk, and mastin was confirmed on D1 to Yume),one was immune to the scum kill, one provided immunity...and that's not even including the other possible protection available via the gems. On top of ALL THAT, scum were incentived to use kills on gems over humans via Skybirds role, making the worst case scenario EVEN LESS likely to occur.

Then, even after all that, in that D3 lylo scenario...there would be what, 7 non scum slots that town wouldn't lynch, and they'd have access to vigs and bubbles and all sorts of other events to prevent a loss.

I had a rather lengthy post that I was working on in my hydra pt with drixx going over all this back when we were talking about farside and why we expected there to be additional threats beyond the numbers weve been assuming. I can go finish it if you really want me to go into more detail, but I think it should be clear that there's ample cause to be cautious rather than assume that only one scum remains.

-Cerb
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Post Post #12311 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Reasonably Rational »

We're down to 96 hours.

Random, in the end the entire grapes thing is entirely up to you. It would be best if you made a decision on what course we should follow with 48 hours or so left, so we can make sure we have time to get our votes where they need to be after you make that call.

-Certainly
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Post Post #12312 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:46 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 12310, Reasonably Rational wrote:1) First of all, though the idea of grapes as leftover turned scum has been the main thing we've discussed, there is a very prominent, though rarely on screen, threat to earth from season 2/3: Yellow Diamond. There's no reason why a seventh scum couldn't have simply existed from the start. There's even mechanical support for this idea because Xkfyu had an ability that allowed him to directly contact the leader of the threats to earth....something which occurred in the show when Peridot contacted Yellow Diamond.
I's remarks like this one that make me hard TR this slot. I mean, I'm totally illiterate about the show, and there's absolutely no scum benefit to enlightening me with what actually did happen on the show itself.

However, let me ask: Are we looking for Yellow Diamond or Army? I'm sorry, but when a game is stagnant for this long I tend to forget many minor details, and I have already deleted all remarks I had thought the game is almost over and I wanted grapes lynched and that's it.

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Post Post #12313 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:05 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12271, Reasonably Rational wrote:Sorry for Triple Post: There's also a way to ensure that we still win even if Grapes is scum and misbehaves when returned to the game. Cross that bridge if we get there tho. Mastin was on the right track but didn't quite follow it all the way through.
Which is, again, why I wanted Magna to talk with, even if only through randomidget.

To put it simply, you're not good enough--aside from the fact that you as scum would have a scum-centric agenda disguised as a town one, there's the fact that you're imperfect yourselves. Now, Magna would be imperfect, too. But four voices working on the issue would've been stronger than three, especially when half would be conftown and would be willing to trust the other half if said other half was placed in a situation where there would be no possible scum agenda attached (i.e., you die today or if not, tonight).

That's my basic stance, here.

You simply can't be trusted with any plan that does not involve your prompt death. Plans which involve you dieing, those I can view from you and know they come without bias, so long as they are the only plans being made by you. Now, I can't necessarily trust them to be perfect plans! You're not perfect. You're good, but not perfect. But I could trust them to be without the scum agenda.

Soyeah, basically:
-You could be scum.
-Even as town, you could overlook something.
-I will listen to you for things which I know can't benefit you as scum...
-And I know that the risk of you overlooking something is lower than the average player...
-But I would still scrutinize it to make absolutely
sure
that the proposed plan would not be either the first or second, that it neither helps a scum!RR nor has a glaringly obvious hole in it.

And I got my answer from Varsoon, by the way--if randomidget has engaged successfully in the dialog with grapes, then the release can proceed because I got the answer I was looking for, meaning that one of my only concerns was taken care of.
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Post Post #12314 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:14 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12274, Almost50 wrote:What if it IS RR+grapes you bonehead?? (Sorry! This one is in good faith, not meant to be an insult). :P
That's why randomidget's plan has a gap in it. It only works a small fraction of the time.

My plan, as far as I can tell, works somewhere around 80-90% of the time. (The small failure chance being grapes as scum not going along, and then being left with a choice.)

Now, I am convinced there's only one scum in the game--but a plan should account for the possibility there's two, and that grapes is one of them.
If there's only one scum, the possible scum are you and RR. I would say RR is more likely scum than you.
If there's two scum, the possible scum increases to include Shiro. I would say Shiro is more likely than you, though which of Shiro/RR it would be, that I wouldn't be able to tell you. As established, I don't think this is the case, but it should still be accounted for, especially to leave everyone happy.

So the plan should, ideally, prove that there's only one scum in the game, clearing Shiro (and grapes)...and then taking out RR, and then taking you out if necessary, though I honestly don't think it will be.

The less a plan accomplishes these objectives, the more inferior that plan would be. Not flipping RR. Not proving there's only one scum. Getting you out earlier than others. Getting Shiro out first, when Shiro cannot be solo-scum. All of these would be bad ideas. So a plan needs to focus on making sure the flips happen and information is gained in certain ways.
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Post Post #12315 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:32 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12278, Reasonably Rational wrote:Since it is clear that our plan isn't well understood:
1.) Release Grapes and he exits with one suspect. According to MoI, they won't return until the beginning of the next episode (this timing is critical to why the plan is 100% win probability).
1a.) If Grapes goes rogue, there's a fall back for that. There's absolutely no upside to addressing it unless he goes rogue because there's no sense in giving him any way to anticipate what we'll do. Grapes going rogue is the worst case scenario but it doesn't take away the win
unless
scum has extra kills, which is a problem in ALL cases, and CANNOT be accounted for. No sense in spending worry on something we can't do fuck all about.
2.) There will be 2 suspects left. Lynch one of them.
2a.) If the game doesn't end with the win, we know that the remaining suspect is scum. Since any two man scum team must contain Grapes and/or Shiro, we would know for sure who is scum at that point.
3.) Random bubbles the last suspect. This presumably resolves before a scum kill because kills resolve last. At that instant, all possible suspects are considered dead for the purposes of win conditions, and therefore Town win condition triggers and gem win condition triggers.
I mean, I already talked it over with the mod--I am pretty sure this plan works. It's my plan, just worded slightly differently, but critical in this is that Shiro is the one bubbled, and you are the one lynched. Almost50 at that point if the last scum can't win because he gets bubbled.

It does rely on grapes being town--but I am willing to bet the game on grapes being town. And if I am wrong, if he scumclaims...well, then that'll be unfortunate, I'll have been wrong, yet at this stage you get the saving grace of having a willing audience to listen to. I consider every angle in there. It SHOULD work. But it requires randomidget's full support, and trust, and also grapes explicitly giving the green light so that when we release him, he EXPLICITLY knows that the event can be triggered. It requires that, and nothing more.

This plan tests the two scum theory (rather, helps disprove it).
This plan gets all possible suspects all out of the game.

Now, the reason for the picks, I'm not sure I should disclose.
But Shiro has VERY good reason to be the one grapes removes.
Beyond that, I'll admit that both RR and Almost50 have reasons why they could have a scum trump card (for instance, a way to be immune to bubbling), but overall I concluded it slightly safer to lynch Reasonably Rational first and bubble Almost50 rather than try the inverse. (This is evident enough in posting. Almost50's posting seems to strongly suggest that if he is scum, he has no defense for the bubble--it hits him, he loses. Whereas, in contrast, RR has suggested multiple times that they should be targeted during the night. This is concerning, as it is a potential indicator of having some sort of method to negate the action. What, exactly, I wouldn't know. But this is a precaution.)

If you are actually town, this should be okay with you, should be understandable to you, and should be acceptable. All it does is require one small leap of faith, in grapes being town and his ability working (which grapes should've verified by now). And there would be contingency plans even if this leap of faith turned out to be in error. There would be plans in place to prevent the scum from winning. So I really do think this is our best way of getting the results we want.
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Post Post #12316 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:49 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12298, Reasonably Rational wrote:I don't believe Varsoon could even tell us when "standard" MYLO was in effect...sorta makes me wonder about why Mastin's power functions in MYLO actually, lol.
As the one who has the vote-related power.

I can actually answer this.

Varsoon won't tell us if the scum have an extra kill that would potentially make the game end a day earlier than normal--he couldn't.

But Varsoon WILL tell us if the scum have the traditional, standard, numbers for mylo. So in this case, 2v4 would be known to be 2v4.

Full disclosure, you were right when you said I was willing to lie about my power as town, though in this case it was a lie by omission. I had an exchange with Almost50 yesterday where I said, "my power would presumably warn us if the scum could endgame us a day earlier than normal, but I'll ask the mod to be sure". Almost50 was concerned about this, and I wanted to address his concerns as proof that grapes wasn't scum.

...I didn't like the mod answer I was provided, where he said he couldn't tell me. I'm not actually looking at the PMs right now, so if I did I could bring up the exact wording. But I'm reasonably sure that what applies to my voting role applies to tragic destiny voting rules: traditional numbers mylo will be noted as such for voting mechanics. (In my case, my role wouldn't function; in this case, Tragic Destiny couldn't function.) Now, I'm not sure that we'd actually have a public announcement that tragic destiny won't work. So we might have to orchestrate a situation where 4/6 players or 3/5 are voting someone (say, grapes), to prove that today's not mylo/lylo if that's a concern.

For instance: we had no notification that grapes took two extra votes to lynch yesterday, in spite of my role working.

I'm not sure if my wording's getting across clearly here.

But basically:
If there's an extra kill in play, V can't tell us.
If there's mylo/lylo in play, Varsoon can and will tell us--now he might not tell us publicly; we might have to find out by experimentation/demonstration. But regardless of whether he tells us publicly or tells us by pragmatically showing it in effect, either way, mylo/lylo will in fact disable voting mechanics.

I went over with Varsoon on this, and I'm basically 100% positive the way my role works is the same as any voting shenanigans works.

THIS much, not a lie. Not a lie, not a lie by omission, just the truth as I understand it. Could be a mistake on my part, I suppose, where I misinterpreted something, where I misread something, but swear to you that as far as I know, this is the truth, and how things actually work.

If need be, you can ask, by going over public vote manipulation roles we've had flipped, like Skybird, or DGB.
Or, fuck! Because Tragic Destiny has been a game mechanic since the beginning of the game, and is a GAME MECHANIC rather than an unflipped role mechanic? You can probably directly asked Varsoon about this and he'll probably answer you because game mechanics aren't something he'd want to keep secret from players; he'd want to answer as honestly as he could.
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Post Post #12317 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:55 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12311, Reasonably Rational wrote:We're down to 96 hours.
Random, in the end the entire grapes thing is entirely up to you. It would be best if you made a decision on what course we should follow with 48 hours or so left, so we can make sure we have time to get our votes where they need to be after you make that call.
Of critical note: I'm not currently voting, and that's because I absolutely need to know whether grapes is being released or not. There's something that I need to do post-grapes-event, but pre-lynch, which is why time is of the essence.

I'm also not around much on the weekends, and my schedule might not align well with those in the rest of the thread, throwing things into chaos and disarray. So we need that call from you.
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Post Post #12318 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:18 am

Post by Shiro »

I am 100% with Mastin's plan.

Seems solid from all angles.
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Post Post #12319 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:29 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

Only Mastin could possibly make a post saying "I have to think about things and figure it out but there must be a way to ensure a win" and
then later
claim ownership of the plan I outlined in the very next post demonstrating that it was not in the least bit hard to work out. Of course ... this is the same person who lurked most of the game on Yume telling us she was confirmed town via mod post in a PT and then said she deserved a scummy for her play. Just LOL.

~D
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Post Post #12320 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:20 am

Post by Reasonably Rational »

You know ... I went and re-read Mastin's posts today, and there's some bullshit she needs to be called out for, and some hypocrisy.

1.) Earlier we made the point that Mastin would lie to the town to get her way, because we know Mastin and have played with her and seen her do it. She accused us of character assassination, but now freely admits
she has done so
. It's not character assassination to point out the truth.

2.) And speaking of hypocrisy: she continues to assassinate our character. I've repeatedly said that it doesn't really matter whether we get killed or bubbled when talking about our plan. Why? Because we're town (and this must now be obvious to all because we've literally given the game a 100% win probability for town which would constitute game throwing if we were scum), it is only even relevant in two edge cases. There's no reason to go into them now, but there ARE two potential situations where there would be more reason to bubble us than just letting us be alive to see the game to the end, given that it's our plan and we've busted our ass.

3.) Speaking of character assassination again: Mastin is smarter than she's pretending to be. If we were scum, and if we had some sort of bubble immunity (as she's trying to suggest as a scare tactic to get her way; her ultimatums should be rejected simply because it's not okay to hold a game hostage and she's tried to do it twice now), that would only result in us being lynched the next day. We would gain nothing by that, and she knows it. The
ONLY
thing that can cause us to lose now is if scum has an extra kill, which we've pointed out repeatedly.

3.) Speaking of lying to the game to get her own way, how about that admission outright that she didn't get the answer she wanted from Varsoon but still tried to pretend she did to sway A50 (which is sort of amusing given A50's play today which is hands down the scummiest posting I've ever seen by a player who isn't outright mechanically outed as scum and just trolling the game).

Wow ... I got tired of that sooner than I thought. I could go on for like a dozen more points though. One has to wonder, at this point, what is motivating Mastin to behave this way. At times it has been like watching as someone's toddler throws a temper tantrum in a store and the poor parent is completely humiliated, except in this analogy Mastin is both the parent and the one throwing the tantrum.


In any case ... we've outlined the path to victory. We have two conftown and at this point we're inclined to follow the lead of the one who hasn't lied to the game, claimed character assassination when we (correctly) pointed out that she would lie to the game to get her way, who has been a complete hypocrite, who has repeatedly tried to steal credit for the work of others, and who has
repeatedly tried to strongarm the game
. I would rather follow Random and a flawed plan to a loss than give in to that kind of bullshit play.


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- The ball is in your hands. Make the call. We'll go whichever way you deem best. Obviously we hope you consider our advice, but either way we're with you.

-Reasonably Rational
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Post Post #12321 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:43 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12319, Reasonably Rational wrote:Only Mastin could possibly make a post saying "I have to think about things and figure it out but there must be a way to ensure a win" and
then later
claim ownership of the plan I outlined in the very next post demonstrating that it was not in the least bit hard to work out.
*ahem*

Your plan?
Outlined in .

My plan?

First stage, .
When I learned the gems could bubble, that was refined in .

A full 23 posts and nearly a solid page, not to mention, a full 19 hours earlier than your post.

Who's trying to claim credit for WHOSE plan?
When I said it was my plan but worded only slightly differently.
I meant it was MY FUCKING PLAN worded only slightly differently. You know. The plan that I had already outlined. The plan I had already talked about. The plan that I was crunching math to make sure would work, not to mention asking questions to Varsoon to cover gaps to make sure it would work, the very thing you have COMMENTED ON in fact.

The two are not mutually exclusive. Figuring out a plan with no gaps, and having posted a plan, are not mutually exclusive. I posted the idea. I was working on finding the strengths and weaknesses of all ideas, including my own.

Don't dare try to claim high ground where none exists.
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Post Post #12322 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:01 pm

Post by mastin2 »

In post 12320, Reasonably Rational wrote:Earlier we made the point that Mastin would lie to the town to get her way, because we know Mastin and have played with her and seen her do it. She accused us of character assassination, but now freely admits
she has done so
. It's not character assassination to point out the truth.
It is when you do so with an agenda.

You pointed it out with the aim to make people not listen to me.
If we were scum, and if we had some sort of bubble immunity (as she's trying to suggest as a scare tactic to get her way; her ultimatums should be rejected simply because it's not okay to hold a game hostage and she's tried to do it twice now), that would only result in us being lynched the next day.
Wrong.
grapes removes Shiro.
We lynch Almost50.
You kill me.
You have bubble immunity.
The timing works out that Shiro and grapes, members of the town, only return to the game AFTER there are no town left. Triggering the scum wincon.

This is why you need to die first by the plan: because the risk you hold an ace up your sleeve is higher than the risk that Almost50 holds an ace up his sleeve. As I already explained: his posting makes it fairly abundantly clear that he has no answer for the ideal plan going as scheduled. He has no answer to him being bubbled. He would lose the game.

I fully expect whoever we lynch today to be town.
And I fully expect whoever we bubble to be the scum.

Because, and here's the thing. If you're scum I expect you to have some sort of way to escape the autoloss, but it requires you to not be lynched today.
If Almost50 is scum, I expect you to recognize that he cannot win and therefore submit to being lynched today.

My choice, a binary choice assuming grapes is released and enacts the plan, is really that simple. It comes to what I know of you. You as scum, by your own words, would never propose a plan in which you would automatically lose. So you as scum, proposing to not be today's lynch, tells me that you as scum still have a way to win.

You as town have a way you believe will break the game
regardless of whether you are lynched today or not
.
So you as town have incentive to not be a fucking stubborn asshole and to submit to the autowin which involves your death first.

It's not that difficult to understand.

It is PRECISELY BECAUSE OF YOUR COMPETENCY that I am treating you the way I am. I am absolutely holding a double standard! And that's because I want to win, and I know YOU want to win! So if you're scum, I need to make sure that win is denied to you; if you're town, then we will win together and we can sort out any remaining shit postgame because we'll have won.

If you are scum, you have a way to escape. You have an out, if you avoid the noose. Tell me I'm wrong. Tell me, flat-out tell me to my FACE that you, as scum, do not have an out here. Tell me that you, as scum, would willingly enter into a situation where you automatically lose. You know it's not true, so you know that if you were scum, you'd have an escape route planned. Which means that you, as town, should KNOW that you need to die first.

If you are town, who truly believes we have a foolproof autowin plan. If you are town, then it doesn't matter that you die first--Almost50 still gets bubbled, and we still win the fucking game. If you are town, it doesn't matter what the order is, but you should recognize that if you were scum, the order ABSOLUTELY would matter. And while YOU know your alignment.

*I* do not. So we should go with the order which is safer for the people NOT IN YOUR FUCKING SHOES. And the safer order, the order which has a higher chance of guaranteeing a town win, is lynching you then bubbling Almost50.
One has to wonder, at this point, what is motivating Mastin to behave this way.
One simple factor, and one alone:
Desire to win.
And a drive to try to win every step of the way.

If you can't recognize where I'm coming from.
Then I don't know what to tell you.
Because this has all been clear, my stance from the very beginning.

There is a risk of letting you live, by simple virtue of it being YOU let to live, even if the plan calls for your immediate bubble.
There isn't zero risk in letting Almost50, sure--if he has some way to escape, then we would risk a loss. But his posting has clearly indicated to me that he doesn't have a way to escape; your posting indicates if scum you DO have a way to escape.

And that's why I say I fully expect today to be a mislynch. I fully expect the game to not end today. If you are town, then you'll self-lynch and Almost50, the only possible scum candidate, will be bubbled. If you are scum, then you'll manage to bully your way to where we can't lynch you, and then if as I fear you have an out, you'll exploit it to win.

That's why you need to be today's lynch. That's why you've been my fucking push. It's because you're too damn smart for your own good. It's because there's too many risks in letting you live, and almost none in letting Almost50 (temporarily) live.
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Post Post #12323 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:09 pm

Post by mastin2 »

And, yes. I do in fact know the timing.
I didn't know for sure when I proposed . I hadn't asked Varsoon at the time about the specifics behind the wincon triggers, until after I posted that.
This was made moot by the revelation that randomidget could bubble someone, alleviating the problem--it wouldn't matter if the scum attempted a kill anymore, because they'd be bubbled, and instantly lose. Presumably the bubble would happen before the kill, meaning that the town wouldn't lose. But all the same, I did get that answer.

The scum, if removed, will lose the game.
The town, even if dead for a brief period of time, will lose the game.
The timing works such that without the bubble, we'd have lost by the plan in if mislynching and the scum killing me. I didn't know that at the time of posting, but once I got clarification I did. Yet by the time I got clarification, I knew we now had the bubble available as a resource, removing this weakness from the plan. , or if you prefer, your (same exact plan, worded differently), is the refined plan which ensures we can't lose.

The danger isn't in scum having an extra kill. The extra kill means fuckall, because if they're bubbled before they are killed, then they still lose.
The danger is in scum having immunity to BEING killed (rather, bubbled), because if they're immune to being bubbled, they have a path to victory.

This is not something I wanted to explain, for obvious fucking reasons. Telling the scum how they could win, if they hadn't thought of it, is a horrendously stupid idea, but it shouldn't matter if we release grapes, he does the plan, and we lynch RR, with Almost50 bubbled immediately after that.
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Post Post #12324 (ISO) » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:20 pm

Post by mastin2 »

Like. That's the thing here. I've been doing more research than I've ever done in a game before. I asked Varsoon more questions than I've ever asked a mod before in a game. Whenever he didn't give me a satisfactory answer, I tried a different angle, a different approach, until every question was answered I could think of, and I had all the information I could think of that could possibly end up being relevant.

And while I could have misunderstood things. While I could have thought things over wrong. While I wanted Magna here to look over my stuff to make sure I made no mistakes, because no fucking duh, this is something I've never done before and I'm incredibly prone to error, to miscalculations, I've done my best to coordinate things to the fullest, and used simple judgment calls on whatever little gaps remain.

One of said judgment calls is simple:
  1. Reasonably Rational has agreed to/proposed a plan which, as far as I can tell, leads to a guaranteed town win.
  2. Reasonably Rational, as scum, would never willingly agree to/propose a plan which would actually lead to a guaranteed town win.
  3. Reasonably Rational, if scum, therefore has an out, some loophole in the plan that they can exploit which I can't see.
  4. Almost50 has shown panic at this plan, trying to rant and rave about every possible way to get us to do something else. He rejects it.
  5. Almost50, if scum, would be aware if he could win if the plan was enacted.
  6. Because Almost50 is panicking, this is an indicator that Almost50, if scum, cannot win with the plan enacted.
  7. Thanks to the factors above, the logical conclusion is to lynch Reasonably Rational first, and bubble Almost50.
This is a judgment call I am willing to make, because it follows logic to its natural conclusion: Almost50 can't win by the plan; Reasonably Rational if scum could win by the plan if not lynched; lynch RR first to ensure that neither RR nor Almost50 can win as scum.

The second judgment call I am willing to make is that grapes is town. This is something you, apparently, are also okay with assuming, RR. Shiro is, too. In fact, the only person not okay with it is Almost50. (Or maybe also randomidget.)

From those simple facts, from simple number crunching, running the math, looking at my notes, making basic conclusions, everything says this is the right path.

So that's why I'm going after you: because there's no choice BUT to.
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