In post 12230, Almost50 wrote:
I'd need Mastina's view on this: It's a grapes + RR scum team, and it was all a PERFECT scum theater yesterday.
It's not impossible. I've explicitly brought it up; it was Magna who refused to think of the possibility, not me. So you don't need to convince me.
I mean, you do need to convince me, because I'm not convinced grapes is scum, but you don't need to convince me that hard.
I really fucking hate the scenario right now, because I was under the apparently-mistaken assumption the gems wouldn't be able to bubble tonight if they bubbled last night. And right now, as one of only two conftown, with MoI having been released in my opinion prematurely, I'm the only 100% reliable source of planning. randomidget is conftown, but no offense random, you're not exactly a gamebreaker. Magna is. I want to develop a 100% foolproof plan, but I know that I am wont to develop plans which have a glaringly obvious hole which I didn't see but someone else is able to exploit.
In this case, I'm pretty sure no matter what plan of the currently...three or four proposed plans, that there's a risk involved regardless, unless I can figure out how to sift through them and make them not have those flaws. It's a lot of pressure on me that I really wasn't looking forward to, especially since if as I suspect no plan is absolutely flawless...I'm left in a situation where I have to actually sift through nearly 500 pages and actually figure out which of the two choices is scum. (We can get it down to a 50/50 no matter which plan we do and no matter what risk we take. It might be a 50/50 today, it might be a 50/50 during the night, it might be a 50/50 tomorrow, but no matter what regardless of a plan, we've got at least a 50/50. It's just that we're trying to make BETTER than 50/50, and I'm not sure we can get that.)
Also, in terms of plans...the mercy option from the scum, and also the common courtesy option from the scum, would be killing me tonight. That would mean it wouldn't be my choice in any theoretical lylo/mylo tomorrow.
I mean. I'm not relying on mercy. The dick move is killing randomidget, ensuring that the gems lose even if the town wins. (I mean, if scum win, gems loses anyway, but killing the gems ensures the gems loses even if the town wins, and that's a dick move because the gems have contributed more to the gamestate allowing for a town victory than anyone else so robbing them of their victory for petty reasons is...like I said, a dick move. And while I'd certainly hope that the last scum wouldn't be a dick, I can't rely on it.)
But ideally, we win today.
If not, we win tonight.
If not, then not my problem.
And if not, if it becomes my problem, we win tomorrow.
I'm basically trying to cover every angle at the moment, and that's a level of computation which...is a bit difficult, so I hope you can bear with me for a bit. I know that I also need time on my side, to do this work quickly yet also thoroughly (which sucks especially since we're losing three days as of now thanks to the weekend), but the thoroughly is more important than the quickly in making sure we don't fuck things up.
It may be possible to ensure that scum can't win no matter what. I need to run the math on this, and be very careful about it. All the while, I need randomidget to ask grapes a bombardment of questions about every myriad of detail about the facets of grapes's role (everything randomidget can think of), and grapes to have done the same to Varsoon to get clarifications. After a few days of this, and randomidget relaying the answers to me, there are some questions I want to ask specifically if they weren't already answered, but which would be a bad idea for me to ask otherwise (because I don't want to give grapes the answer I'm looking for).
Only if a win isn't 100% possible do we enter into the realm of finding the best choices.
And by the way: regardless of autowin or no autowin, lynching RR today is going to be a part of my basic plan here.