In post 6498, mastina wrote:Since Andrius never conveyed my messages in spite of my request...Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:05 pmmastina wrote:Obviously, this is information not to share with those who don't want to be spoiled, but for those who are spoiled and watching the game, you can convey to them the following:
Just for the record.
I both have, and have not, in fact, lost my marbles and gone batshit insane. There is both a madness to my method, and a method to my madness.
There is an exact 50/50 split chance between me getting lynched, and me not getting lynched, on D1. There won't be nukes on D1 from my understanding, unless my prediction of Reck changing his vote last-minute to NUKE THE BASTARDS turns true. And even if there were, they'd take 48 hours to hit, so I'll get a chance to post serious reads and whatnot before my death.
There are many people here who think I am scum for what I am doing. (I asked Andrius to only convey this message to those who are spoiled, because it makes it obvious that I'm not.) There are many people who for this play would policy lynch me.
But like most mastina plays, this is a calculated risk: I am gambling on the lynch not materializing. And I know that in this play...there will be mostly town who want to lynch me, with some scum. There will be some who defend me that are town, and some who defend me that are scum. Perhaps the more valuable one is that those who are on the fence are more likely to be scum, with maybe a few town.
Of course, if I know this. The default assumption would be, "well, that makes it a worthless play, right?". I mean, there's a reason Slayer's Gambit doesn't work. You have to know what you're trying to gain, and I just laid out how scum will be equally divided in their reactions, with mostly town involved. So surely, useless, right?
...As it turns out: no. What I'm gauging here is psychology, essentially. I'm not reading the players off of the expectation of "scum will do this, town will do that". I'm reading the players off the basis of, "That action looks like it comes from LLD as scum", and "that action looks like it comes from Cephrir as town". (Both true reads, btw.)
Of course, the tricky thing here is...I'm not an idiot. I know that the moment I change my tune, I am a deadwoman. I know that even if I play seriously for 3/4ths of a day phase, what I have already done will totally discredit any chance of my reads being taken seriously once I am gone at the hand of the town.
So, how, then, am I to convey to them the useful information?
The answer is...with subtlety. I'm looking for people whounderstandthe situation. I'm looking for people who can grasp what I'm doing. And I'm looking to synchronize with those of them who I see as town. In essence, while I may not be able to directly convey important stuff, I'm hoping that I'll be able to relay it to key players who CAN convey the important stuff.
In other words. I'm looking to rattle feathers here, and reflect on subtle things. It's not the surface stance which matters. It's the tone, the intent, behind the stance which does. I cannot guarantee that I can read that...but the hope here is that I do decently enough to fuck the scum over.
I KNOW it is a big fucking huge risk.
If to nothing else, my reputation! Even if the players alive read this message (I'll be seriously pissed at Andrius if it isn't conveyed), would they actually believe me?
I mean, those that know me should. I'm MASTINA. OfcourseI have a plan. Of course it's a gambit. Of course it served a deliberate purpose. Of course I am still actually playing the game. Of course I was playing towards my wincon.
But to those who don't, they're just gonna see the shitty play and assume shitty player.
But I do know what I'm doing. I'm broadcasting my alignment, if people know what signs to really read. I'm looking for those who have read those signs...and for those who are faking knowing those signs. So like I said: method to madness, madness in method. Calculated risk. I'm HOPING for a payoff here, but we'll have to see.
If I fail, I do owe everyone that apology.Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:21 ammastina wrote:Another thing which can be shared:
I should probably make a running list of my reads.
Reck I go back and forth on. I can't lock him down. I want to assume town though.
I believe his Cheetory read is correct, too.
Cephrir is town as well.
I'm not so sure about SpyreX (or on the other side, hiplop), but my gut is telling me to believe Reck about UT.
Accountant I also go back and forth on, but lean town more than not. Nahdia could be either at this point. I want town, but I've got a bad feeling they may be scum.
Ser Arthur Dayne at this point could openly claim scum and I wouldn't believe him so if he's scum he already won.
Spiffeh is probably town, but I'm not super confident about it.
GIF's got at least a 60-70% chance of being town here, too.
No read on GreyICE yet, would be pretty ironic if he were scum with LLD, but I doubt that.
McMenno's a wildcard I'll watch.
Zito, hard to tell. I don't like his entrance, but I'm not sure he's scum for it.
I have no opinion on Something_smart.
I'm deliberately avoiding reading MoI.
Nukebringer is probably town, though seeing more spam from Firebringer would help my read there some more.
So, town to scum we get something like:
Ser Arthur Dayne
Cephrir
Cheetory
Nukebringer
Spiffeh
GiF
Reck
Accountant
Something_smart
MoI
McMenno
Fate
GreyICE
hiplop
SpyreX
Nahdia
Ircher
RC
Zito
UT
LLD
EDIT: Slightly lean towards scum on RC, but not strongly. List above edited to reflect that.
EDIT2: No read on Fate. Slightly bad vibes on Ircher. This, as of 26.Spoiler: Date: Mon Nov 28, 2016 12:44 ammastina wrote:Another one to pass on:
I have to admit at this point, a large part of my strategy is playing up the parts of my personality I hate the most because it is the parts of my personality people perceive me to be. People perceive me to be arrogant, so I have ramped up the arrogance deliberately in response. People perceive me to be stupid, so I have played up my stupidity in response. People perceive me to be bad, so I have played up my suckiness in response. People perceive me to be insane, so I am obfuscating exactly that.
...Okay maybe I'm legit crazy so not exactly pretending there, but for the OTHER points, it holds true.
At this point, basically the aim is to keep portraying specific things.
This is to achieve multiple goals. Basically, the first goal there is that--while this is the absolute shittiest way to do this--my posting is meant to convey that I am town. (Seriously, I absolutely loathe, DESPISE, this tactic from players in games. It is the very thing I tell people to avoid doing, and try to discourage others from doing.)
Convincing people I am town might not seem like it's important. But it's part of the plan. I'm having trouble bringing the exact concept into words, but basically, by projecting my alignment to others, I am hoping to have projected BACK, as an echo, useful information from this. In essence, by making people see that I am town, I can manipulate circumstances such that I am in a position where I don't have to worry about being a distraction. I don't have to worry about people focusing attention on me. I can get the town to write me off.
The second part, related to the first, is in making people think I am useless, as an extension of writing me off. Now, you might wonder...why would I want people to write me off entirely? It's simple: because that way, I can deal damage to the scumteam.
If I am at any point killed, it tells the town that maybe just maybe, there was something that made me worthy of being killed. I have claimed vanilla. I am being, basically, an obnoxious fuck. If I die. Then that's pretty fucking significant! Furthermore. Even if I don't.
If I live to see D3, I get to launch a nuke. I have made it very well-known I am nuking LLD.
I am not planning on nuking LLD.
Whoever I DO nuke, though, will give answers: if someone shuts down my nuke, then that means someone wanted to keep LLD alive. This basically confirms LLD as scum, because by being written off by the town, the idea is that town won't waste their PRs on me. I WANT to be left open, to only the scum. If my nuke is intercepted, then so be it, but that tells us information. If my nuke lands, we get that flip and I get to have left an impact.
If nobody sabotaged my nuke, it also basically shows that the scum either don't have the power to sabotage me, or that they WANTED me to nuke LLD, effectively clearing her.
I realize it's a bit difficult for me to fully convey what this plan is.
But basically, the idea is deliberate, calculated, precise, selective guidance to specific things. I want people to be able to use my reads. I want my reads to be a threat to the scum. I want the scum, if they write me off, to pay dearly for it. I want the scum, if they pay attention to me, to be exposed for having paid attention to me, something which they shouldn't do unless I was an issue. I want the town to not waste time and effort on me. I want the town to focus their attention onto the scum.
So while my method is unorthodox, that's more or less what I'm focusing towards.
You might think.
"That's a stupid-ass plan, mastina!"
And to be fair, if it fails, yes it would indeed be rather stupid.
But by and large.
It's actually working.
If I am massively wrong about my reads, then come D3, it will be obvious I was massively wrong about my reads, and we'll be much better able to refine and redo the list.
GreyICE basically nailed the point when he said that I would basically invert the list if given a reason to change the read. That point has the specific trigger, of D3. (Which I SHOULD live to see.)
If I am at all threatening with my reads, then the scum will in some way work to sabotage me.
So that part of the plan is basically surefire going to work. I don't even need to explain it, either. If the scumteam sabotage me, either by nightkill or by the strike team, it'll be SUCH a "what the fuck?!?" moment that they'll not need to be told this; they'll figure it out on their own. If the scumteam doesn't sabotage me, then I can explain it myself.
The part of the plan in question is the getting town to write me off. And that part, I think is working. Yes, I am the second-largest wagon. Or is it tied for first right now? Doesn't really matter. Yes I know that the people on there justifiably want me dead if for no other reason than policy. But you know what?
Even though I am town. I know the wagon won't go through. The scum aren't going to be stupid enough to force my lynch through. Yet there aren't enough town players interested in lynching me. So they'll lose interest. They'll get distracted. They'll pursue the shiny. They'll write me off. Maybe in their minds temporarily, but it'll be long enough. Just long enough, that I'll be given free reign.
So, I'm not worried right now.
I realize I could be making a fatal miscalculation.
No, literally, FATAL miscalculation. As in, lynched today, miscalculation. Meaning my work here would be wasted.
This IS a high-risk, high-reward plan.
But given my read of the situation, I think I'm fine. I'm reasonably confident that no matter how much I goad them, no matter how much I taunt them, my claims of them lacking the numbers to lynch me ring true. Too many people townread me or pretend too strongly TO townread me.
It also helps me direct things where I want them to go. For instance, the votes on me mostly came from Something_smart. In short, by drawing attention to MYSELF, I deliberately was shutting that wagon down. That'll make me look awfully fucking stupid if I'm wrong and Something_smart actually IS scum but I'm preeeeeeetty sure that Something_smart is actually town here, sooooooooooo...
...It's worth the risk.
I'll protect Vaxkiller and Something_smart, even if the cost of it is playing the most dangerous game of chicken with the noose ever. A sort-of, more subtle "Mastin Gambit". You know, "I'm so confident playername is alignment, that you can lynch me FIRST". That Mastin Gambit.
...Okay. Yeah. I'm crazy. I'm insane. This plan has so many ways it could go wrong and only a few it could go right with the ways it could go right potentially being underwhelming compared to my projections, compared to my expectations.
But I think this explanation makes it clear enough that,yes, is IS in fact a plan. I have a strategy. Maybe not a GOOD one. Maybe one that is universally to be called a bad one, ESPECIALLY if it goes awry. But it's aplan, nonetheless!Spoiler: Date: Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:15 pmmastina wrote:More thoughts:
Right now, I do not hold an LLD scumread.
But by GOD I cannot give that away. People think I am going to nuke her. And my plan absolutely HINGES on people assuming I am going to nuke LLD. I absolutely canNOT let out the fact that I'm not scumreading her anymore, even though I feel like she isn't scum and I absolutely suck at subtlety. It is vital that the scum assume I am going to nuke her. Absolutelyessential.
So with that in mind, I'm trying to keep focus elsewhere, to avoid bringing attention to LLD. I'm trying to avoid mentioning her much at all, and when I do to have it be in a neutral context rather than a negative one.
But right now, Ircher, RC, Zito, and GiF are who I'm focusing on.
RC and GiF strike me as the type to have come up with the codes the scum are using.
Ircher and Zito strike me as the type to be posting the spam in the scum PT. Particularly Zito.
Those four are my main suspects for being scum, and I'm trying to keep the focus there without giving away my plan.
I can't nuke Ircher. He put stock in all the anti-nuke options. Nor can I nuke GiF, for obvious reasons. (I mean, it'd be hella ballsy for me to do, but one, I'd be intercepted, and two, even if I wasn't then if I am wrong and GiF ended up being the town cop...I'd have fucking NUKED the TOWN COP. Not something I want on my resume. As impressive as nuking a scum cop would be, I know myself well enough to know that my read is FAR more likely to be wrong than right.)
What Icando, however, is...nuke RC, or nuke Zito. Preferably Zito, though RC is viable and was actually my plan until my Zito scumread grew.So that was my plan and thought process on it, as the game unfolded, more or less.Spoiler: Date: Thu Dec 08, 2016 7:52 pmmastina wrote:Been a while, but this whole post can be passed on:
I don't particularly like the tactic I am using right now. It is a fucking awful human being dirty scumbag tactic to use. But it's effective. REALLY effective. Pushing Cheetory's buttons and forcing him into the enraged state he is in is an awful thing to do. But what it does do is give me a better idea of him being town.
I think he is town right now. I really do.
It's been fluctuating a lot, but with this level of upset, this level of rage, this level of a breakdown, I don't think he's scum. I'm just trying to get that final push--that final absolute confirmation from him. If he is town, here, I think he can show it definitively. It might be in a way he never wanted to show anyone. But he'd show it all the same.
I'm also looking for people's reaction to his meltdown--that's equally as important a factor. He is probably town. He, therefore, probably does not have a scumbuddy telling him everything is going to be fine. But the scum, therefore, are in all likelihood...going to feel like utter shit for him feeling so shitty. They know I'm town and if Cheetory is town, they'll know he is town and know that our interaction as toxic as it has become was two players having a flare of passion. (Rather, one. I haven't held passion in my responses. This is cold. This is calculated. A very asshole thing to do, undoubtedly, but not something done with a lick of negative emotion.)
So what I'm looking for is how they respond, how they treat the situation.
I really don't think Cephrir is scum, for much the same reason I'm thinking Cheetory isn't. The game might not remember this at the moment given the flare of passion and emotions going on right now, but for me, it's...a little hard to forget. Cephrir held a similar "fuck you" attitude, one which was to the point of being beyond what I think he is capable of summoning as scum.
I also don't think Vaxkiller is scum. And I know hiplop isn't a Russian.
UT's a bit of an assumption on my part.
But if Cheetory isn't scum.
Then in those other five names, there are two who ARE scum.
Between LLD, SpyreX, GreyICE, Nahdia, and MagnaofIllusion, I'm hoping at least one of them shows their true colors in the heat of this moment.
And for the record: aside from potentially this, I don't hold regrets. I have played to the best of my ability to fulfill my wincon. I have scumhunted. I have made deductions. I have analyzed. I have been wrong as much as I have been right, but me being wrong is not reason for me to stop trying. If it were, I'd have stopped giving effort long ago. Yet it's not.
As town, my JOB is to try and find the scum. My JOB is to try and expose the scum. And if I haven't done it before, that's not reason to quit--that's reason to try harder to get it done right in the now. And because it's my job to scumhunt, because it's my job to keep trying, it doesn't matter how wrong I have been. My duty is to get the town closer to finding scum.
