When are scums scummiest?

[Timeater]

So yeah. Simple question. Generally speaking, when do scum have a tendency to be really scummy/make slips/etc? Elaborate on your choice.

[Vi]

When they're scummy.

Also, somewhere between early-earlygame and earlygame. Scums are actually scummier midgame but by then you've conditioned yourself not to notice.

[Psyche]

That's a very good question. I wonder how I could design a study to investigate that. Find periods of the game when accusations are most likely to be against scum? That'd work if you define scummy as "attracting votes from town", but that's not really the definition.

I read that people are most readable when there are transitions in the discourse — a change or subject. These are called 'breaks'. But I couldn't find the literature to explain why or how.

[Timeater]

Also, somewhere between early-earlygame and earlygame. Scums are actually scummier midgame but by then you've conditioned yourself not to notice.

sort of agree with the conditioning part

[LlamaFluff]

Early mid to mid... something around near the end of day one through the second day, maybe early third too. First day normally is just the killing of a somewhat scummy player who will be a pain to have around later though. Second is where stuff makes more sense. Day one is best spot to pick up town reads though usually.

At that point is where the most serious changes (as opposed to early wagons) are going on so there is far more areas for scum to commit tells in. Lylo is hard, especially in F3 to pick up any new tells, outside of F3 I can see it a little but if you have no clue at that point, you probably are doomed.

[Magua]

There are two times when scum are scummy:

1) They don't know how town would act in their situation, and so act scummy because that'll be the default (this gets rarer, IMO, as their experience grows), or
2) They feel they have to do something scummy in order to survive (eg, in an Open, try to get a PR to claim so they can be shot)

The times when scum are *least* likely to be scummy are when there are unknowns, eg, endgame.

[Vi]

The times when scum are *least* likely to be scummy are when there are unknowns, eg, endgame.

I agree that endgame is least, but I don't know what you mean by "unknowns".

And yes catching scum off-guard is the best way to find them... if you know how.~

[Psyche]

TELL ME HOW.

[Magua]

The times when scum are *least* likely to be scummy are when there are unknowns, eg, endgame.

I agree that endgame is least, but I don't know what you mean by "unknowns".

What roles exist, who has what role, what mod confirmed information is possibly available to the town, etc.

TELL ME HOW.

The problem is that its "do the unexpected." There is no method beyond that; if there were a method (and especially if it were successful), the scum would start to suspect it and then it would start to fail.

[Vi]

TELL ME HOW.

The problem is that its "do the unexpected." There is no method beyond that; if there were a method (and especially if it were successful), the scum would start to suspect it and then it would start to fail.

Also, distinguishing dumb Townies.

[Timeater]

Or the Vi's, if you will

[Umbrage]

Lategame. At the start and near the end, they're really cautious and purposefully unreadable. Anything from those times is useless. Earlygame is for arguing about the bullshit that happened D1, and is usually also an unreadable mess. Midgame is when everyone starts doing fucking weird shit and scummy is the norm. Lategame is sexytimes. Scum are getting cocky, they want the game to be over so they can reveal themselves, so they start pushing the last few mislynches as hard as they can. You can always spot scum in lategame. They're twitching, throwing quote walls around, ranting against some poor VT. That's when you hit them hard. Usually they panic and OMGUS you. Let them bury themselves with their own words. Seize control of the town and win another game.

[Psyche]

I'm definitely more transparent near the end of the game as scum. No one ever seems to care once I've gotten that far and I know it.

[Junpei]

I'd say late/endgame. Because that is the best time for a townsperson to clear themselves of their biases and look at all the facts in completeness. In this sense, scum are retrospectively more scummy.

[Timeater]

The poll is pretty inconclusive so far. -______-

[LlamaFluff]

Lategame. At the start and near the end, they're really cautious and purposefully unreadable. Anything from those times is useless. Earlygame is for arguing about the bullshit that happened D1, and is usually also an unreadable mess. Midgame is when everyone starts doing fucking weird shit and scummy is the norm. Lategame is sexytimes. Scum are getting cocky, they want the game to be over so they can reveal themselves, so they start pushing the last few mislynches as hard as they can. You can always spot scum in lategame. They're twitching, throwing quote walls around, ranting against some poor VT. That's when you hit them hard. Usually they panic and OMGUS you. Let them bury themselves with their own words. Seize control of the town and win another game.

Im not sure I can disagree with this statement more, and you even contradict yourself with "scum are cautious at end" and "scum are twitching, pushing hard etc at end".

Earlygame is where smart scum are going to start doing quite a bit of legwork establishing themselves in games and starting to get a good feel for what is possible down the road or not. Its probably the best spot to look for scum when you are watching people try and keep doors open and any type of contradictory move that may stem from that sort of play.

Lategame scum are not getting cocky at all apart from complete romps, but instead are getting nervous that they can lose control of what they have going and will be trying to make sure nothing changes to mess up what they have planned. Your biggest flaw is that most of your "obvious way to catch scum" are the exact things that town SHOULD be doing, as what self respecting town is going to sit around doing nothing in an endgame? If someone ISNT making cases, attacking who they think are scum, etc... outside of being confirmed town you probably got your scum right there.

Also please "midgame is where people always do scummy shit"... does that mean that we basically should just randomly lynch through the beginning "pointless" and midgame "all are scummy"? If not then apparently its not pointless and always scummy. You basically have given an arguement of "nothing matters until the endgame" arugement.

[Amrun]

When they're scummy.

Also, somewhere between early-earlygame and earlygame. Scums are actually scummier midgame but by then you've conditioned yourself not to notice.

I agree with this so completely that it's not even funny. Also with what LlamaFluff posted above.

Scum are the scummiest in early game, I think, but you need some flips to re-read with to really see it clearly.

[Jackal711]

When they're scummy.

Also, somewhere between early-earlygame and earlygame. Scums are actually scummier midgame but by then you've conditioned yourself not to notice.

I agree with this so completely that it's not even funny. Also with what LlamaFluff posted above.

Scum are the scummiest in early game, I think, but you need some flips to re-read with to really see it clearly.

I agree completely with Amrun here. early to mid-game, but usually only obvious after a few flips during a day 2, 3, or 4 reread.

[kuribo]

When they're scummy.

Also, somewhere between early-earlygame and earlygame. Scums are actually scummier midgame but by then you've conditioned yourself not to notice.

I agree with this so completely that it's not even funny. Also with what LlamaFluff posted above.

Scum are the scummiest in early game, I think, but you need some flips to re-read with to really see it clearly.

agreed, but not only that, by late midgame / endgame, most players have their own PoE that interferes with how scummy a player looks

Long story short: scummy players can get away with more toward the end, since hopefully more people will have town reads on them

Short story long: Anything by Dickens

[Om of the Nom]

Scums are the scummiest after I die.

[mastin2]

You need an "all of the above" answer up there.

I'm a little short on time, but I'll explain when I get back exactly what I mean.

[mastin2]

Okay, time to explain.

Why Earliest-Early-Game (RVS) is scummiest:

It's the time where scum are most vulnerable--no other time can expose as many scum as the RVStage, for good reason (more or less outlined fairly well in my Thoughts While Isolated article)--they're still adjusting to how the town works. They're still getting a feel for the game, and it's during this time that they most will stand out, since it's during this time that they simply don't know what to expect and what will manipulate the town the most.

However, this is not something which is obvious during the time OF the RVS. While there are certain scummers who can make a reputation out of getting strong, accurate reads from the RVS, the average scummer is far more likely to be wrong than right in the RVS, and it makes sense, as not only are they more likely to hit town by probability, they're also the ones who have more incentive to get discussion going, and in the process, making mountains out of molehills is an unfortunate inevitabiliy. So scum can quickly learn to roll with the punches, and go along with the flow, not sticking out at the time...

...But when looked in with hindsight, say, during the lategame where you have (for instance) eight of ten people involved in a discussion flipped and you've noticed a trend...well, then, suddenly, things begin to stand out a lot more, and a seemingly-innocent remark made at the time suddenly looks far more condemning with what you know of the flips and the setup so far.

To some extent, this extends into the next area, of course.

Why Early-Game is the scummiest:

This is actually where scum should be at their strongest (and therefore least scummy) unless they're completely incompetent and something has gone horribly wrong. (In that case, the game's probably going to be a landslide town victory.) Once they adapt, they can blend in. The numbers work in their favor, and again, by probability alone, they're less likely to be lynched. It's easier to blend into a crowd of ten than it is to blend into a crowd of five. Again, this is where lategame analysis comes in--the simplest form (and most common, especially in longer games) where this is visible is in VCA. If you've found on, say, a lynchwagon of seven that five members are confirmed town...well, then odds are not in the remaining twos' favors to be town. (Not the best example, considering how many mostly-town wagons seem to happen these days, but you get the idea of what I'm saying--POE.)

Scum can (and obviously still do) get lynched early-game, of course, but again, because this is the time the town has the least amount of information at their disposal. But when day one is analyzed in the late-game, and I do mean really analyzed, not skimmed, then the scum really start to stand out. Interactions kick in, you can see what was townVtown, what was scumVscum, what was townVscum, etc. You can see patterns which looked fine at the time, but which when viewed in hindsight stick out like a sore thumb. Changes in a player, for instance, become more noticeable...and a general trend begins to form.

Why Midgame is scummiest:

This one's pretty easy, really--because it's when the scum (generally) have the easiest time in most games. Towns find midgame pretty difficult, and scum can coast on by a large majority of the time. An early town rally against the scum tends to fall apart in the midgame. (You know, the whole bunch of "lynch most of the scum on the first few days, and then in overconfidence lynch half the town"-type games. Admit it, you've seen and been in them before.) When the town's had nothing but mislynches so far, the scum can't help but feel they're on the path to victory. Most scum begin to lax their guards, and many towns begin to tighten theirs, meaning overall that this is the time where they have the uupper hand.

(Arg, I feel like I could explain this far better than I am.)

Why Lategame is Scummiest for scum:

This is what I actually voted, for the record, because this is where *I* am at my strongest as town. This is where the scum are either at their most arrogant (they've survived virtually unscathed and it looks as if the town has lost all of their useful power, with any remaining incapacitated or being held by useless slots. It happens all the time), or at their most cautious (they've survived virtually unscathed...but where the heck is the rest of the town's power?). In either case, it's noticeable. If they've become arrogant, they've thrown the caution out the window: they're gunning for a perfect (or near-perfect) win, and they're trying their hardest to make sure town get lynched. And IF they let scum get lynched, they want to ensure that scum takes down the town rather than scum.

If the scum are cautious, it's also noticeable. They display a certain kind of...well, I suppose it'd be an aura, where they are trying to do specific things--mainly, they want to get the information out there, to ensure that their paranoia is unjustified. The last thing they need is to be nailed by the setup when they've done so well up to that point. Despite their caution, they are still trying to do the same thing as the arrogant-scum, and get their perfect win. And again, when all the info is out on the table, they typically become the arrogant-scum, their fears having been alleviated.

(I'm really not explaining things that well. <_<)

Why scum are scummiest in lylo:

In lylo, scum bring who they want in. Ideally, this sets up the town to destroy themselves. (And often, they do.) But a lot of the times, they don't. A townie doesn't vote a townie, and the scum are either voted or vote themselves. And in that situation, the town voting/being voted and the scum are typically on equal grounds--they both want the same thing: the other lynched, for a factional win. Their play would be nearly identical if their alignments were switched, since in the endgame, there really isn't that much of a difference between townplay and scumplay.

So obviously, to the townie left with the hammer, the scum is not going to be scummiest in lylo. They should be around equal with the town, in terms of being townie and scummy. (Again, this is where reviewing the game as a whole comes in--it's what made the difference in DoRC, after all, with CTD consistently furthering the scum wincon compared to Yosarian2.) But to the townie who voted (or was voted), obviously, the scum are the scummiest. Assuming no conftown in lylo, and assuming that the town votes first (rather than the scum), then they obviously HAVE to have seen the scum as being the scummiest, because they just risked everything by voting the scum if they're wrong. (And obviously, if they're voted by the scum, then they HAVE to see the scum as the scummiest, but that's not really as good of an example.)

[Alchemist]

mastin note I said tendency

i'll read that later

[Empking]

I put midgame because I think its where scum have to make the toughest choices and have to decide the gameplan really. In endgame scum have probably eliminated the obstacles in finishing the plan and in earlygame I think a lot of it is going with the flow (if it wasn't then I think thwe Feysals of the world would be much more common as first lynches.)

If it would be Early Game then it'd be because the early game scum knowledge is so much lesser than the knowledge that the endgame reading town player is.

I'd say optimum town play would really be:
Early game: Set the board up in your favour. (Conflicting bandwagons, pressure, lynch idiots.)
Mid-Game: Look in the present for your scum, probably more traditional scumhunting than analytical.
Late-game: Reread, reread, reread.

[Timeater]

Its interesting that opinions are so diverse on the matter. I dont think the poll is flawed; I think I was rather reasonable in the way I seperated the different parts of a game. I think its more of an indicator of how varied everyone's ideas on scumtheory are. Also note not one person selected the lylo option.