I hope someone can help me with a live game I am setting up with 13 people. It will be the simplest form of the game with only townies and scum with no police or other roles. But it is imperative that the last round has one scum and two townies. What is the optimal amount of scum (three?) and what is the probability of one surviving to the last round together with two townies?
If someone can do the math, that is great, but a gut feeling is very appreciated.
Why do you feel like the last round should be 2-1? If the scum gets killed early, with 13 players and 3 scum the game can end as soon as D3, with 6 townies v 1 scum. Or, if the town lynches badly, go to D3 with 4 townies vs 3 scum and end there in a LyLo. The numbers for 2 scum can be easily calculated.
But I would recommend adding at least 1 cop. Makes the game more fun and not more difficult to learn
I agree that a cop really adds more fun. But if it is possible to balance the game more either by adding a fourth scum, replacing one scum with a townie or ad two townies and keeping three or four scum that would suite our purpose better. And the math is easier too
We prefer to have a face off between three because of the tension it creates and the fun of two of them having to hand shake instead of the traditional voting.
The only way to force a 2-1 final round is to start with only 3 players.
You can't control who your players lynch in what order unless you're playing the game for them.
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Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.
There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.
My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
In post 4, YouPeter wrote:Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.
There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.
My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?
In post 4, YouPeter wrote:Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.
There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.
My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?
Game-specific:
The setup consists of seven vanilla townies and five mafia goons.
If a mafia-aligned player is lynched then the town earns one point. The mafia must night kill a town-aligned player during the following night.
If a town-aligned player is lynched then the mafia earns one point. The mafia must night kill or betray one of their own members during the following night.
The first team to earn three points wins.
The town may decide to no-lynch. If they do, then mafia must either kill a town-aligned player or choose to not kill.
The mafia do not have day talk.
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
then I take it that the odds of scum being wiped out in D3 in a Mountainous 10 vs 3 should be 3/13*2/11*1/9=0.0047 and in D4 3/13*2/11*8/9*1/7+3/13*9/11*2/9*1/7+10/13*3/11*2/9*1/7=0.0180 which is not very significant. And if I can get the scum to take out their own, I guess I can remove most of the other´wrong´ endings too with a chance for a 3p LyLo going up to 80 percent. If I got the math right?