What are de odds of 1 scum and 2 townies in the last round?

[YouPeter]

I hope someone can help me with a live game I am setting up with 13 people. It will be the simplest form of the game with only townies and scum with no police or other roles. But it is imperative that the last round has one scum and two townies. What is the optimal amount of scum (three?) and what is the probability of one surviving to the last round together with two townies?

If someone can do the math, that is great, but a gut feeling is very appreciated.

[Toon Fighter]

Why do you feel like the last round should be 2-1? If the scum gets killed early, with 13 players and 3 scum the game can end as soon as D3, with 6 townies v 1 scum. Or, if the town lynches badly, go to D3 with 4 townies vs 3 scum and end there in a LyLo. The numbers for 2 scum can be easily calculated.

But I would recommend adding at least 1 cop. Makes the game more fun and not more difficult to learn

[YouPeter]

I agree that a cop really adds more fun. But if it is possible to balance the game more either by adding a fourth scum, replacing one scum with a townie or ad two townies and keeping three or four scum that would suite our purpose better. And the math is easier too

We prefer to have a face off between three because of the tension it creates and the fun of two of them having to hand shake instead of the traditional voting.

[saulres]

The only way to force a 2-1 final round is to start with only 3 players.

You can't control who your players lynch in what order unless you're playing the game for them.

[YouPeter]

Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.

There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.

My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?

[Not_Mafia]

No, in fact if you're running a 13p mountainous (no Power Roles) game, this is your best bet

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... pen_Setup)

[zoraster]

Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.

There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.

My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?

You'd punish a team for doing too well?

[Magua]

More to the point, if it's agreed upon before you start, why would anyone bother playing the rest of the game?

[BBmolla]

Inevitable 3p LYLO

13 Players

3 Mafia Goons

10 Vanilla Townies

• Daystart
  
• If two of the mafia goons are lynched, the remaining member then nightkills all but two townies during the night.
  
• If mafia ever go into night with an equal amount of players as town, they must kill one of their own.
  
• If mafia ever go into night where if they were to kill a townie it would result in town and mafia being equal the next day, they may not kill.

Here.

Other option is this:

Massacre on Night 3

13 Players

3 Mafia Goons

10 Vanilla Townies

• Daystart
  
• Night 3, regardless of who has been lynched before, the remaining mafia players must kill everyone excluding 2 townies and 1 mafia member.

[Flubbernugget]

Thanks for commenting. I am new to this forum, so I appreciate your quick help.

There are a lot of outcomes where the scum statistically wins in D4 og D5. But for the sake of the excitement of the end game I can get them to assassinate each other if they get too much of upper hand. As long as that is agreef upon before we start.

My concern is if the scum gets annihilated in D3, D4 or D5. What are the odds of that happening?

You'd punish a team for doing too well?

Hey it works for Mario Kart

[BBmolla]

fuck Mario Kart

Seriously

[fferyllt]

You might be interested in the perpetual mylo open setup: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=30280

Game-specific:
The setup consists of seven vanilla townies and five mafia goons.
If a mafia-aligned player is lynched then the town earns one point. The mafia must night kill a town-aligned player during the following night.
If a town-aligned player is lynched then the mafia earns one point. The mafia must night kill or betray one of their own members during the following night.
The first team to earn three points wins.
The town may decide to no-lynch. If they do, then mafia must either kill a town-aligned player or choose to not kill.
The mafia do not have day talk.

[FakeGod]

3 vs 10 Mountainous Scum's expected win rate: 61/77 (or 79.2%)

To get to 3p LyLo, we need 2 scum lynches and 3 town lynches.

Spoiler: 58/143 or 40.6% that the game will go to 3p LyLo

essentially, 3/13*2/11*8/9*6/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*2/9*6/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*7/9*2/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*7/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*3/11*2/9*6/7*4/5 + 10/13*3/11*7/9*2/7*4/5 + 10/13*3/11*7/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*8/11*3/9*2/7*4/5 + 10/13*8/11*3/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*8/11*6/9*3/7*2/5

[FakeGod]

2 vs 11 Mountainous has better balance, if you're planning on running a mountainous game.

[Psyche]

I like Massacre on Night 3. The game becomes less about lynching correctly on a given day and more about setting up the final lynch.

Cept shouldn't it be Night 2?

[BBmolla]

Massacre on Night 2

9 Players

2 Mafia Goons

7 Vanilla Townies

• Daystart
  
• Night 2, regardless of who has been lynched before, the remaining mafia players must kill everyone excluding 2 townies and 1 mafia member.

9p version

[Psyche]

But what if scum are lynched D1 and D2?

[FakeGod]

then they suck and doesn't deserve to win

[Psyche]

I thought we were going for inevitable LYLO.

[BBmolla]

But what if scum are lynched D1 and D2?

I think the odds of that are so low it doesn't matter.

[YouPeter]

Thanks for all the helpful input. A massacre is a great idea to be sure to get a 3p LyLo.

3 vs 10 Mountainous Scum's expected win rate: 61/77 (or 79.2%)

So by that I probably should go for a Mountainous 11 vs 2 if that has a 73,8 percent win rate http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mountainous

If

Spoiler: 58/143 or 40.6% that the game will go to 3p LyLo

essentially, 3/13*2/11*8/9*6/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*2/9*6/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*7/9*2/7*4/5 + 3/13*9/11*7/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*3/11*2/9*6/7*4/5 + 10/13*3/11*7/9*2/7*4/5 + 10/13*3/11*7/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*8/11*3/9*2/7*4/5 + 10/13*8/11*3/9*5/7*2/5 + 10/13*8/11*6/9*3/7*2/5

then I take it that the odds of scum being wiped out in D3 in a Mountainous 10 vs 3 should be 3/13*2/11*1/9=0.0047 and in D4 3/13*2/11*8/9*1/7+3/13*9/11*2/9*1/7+10/13*3/11*2/9*1/7=0.0180 which is not very significant. And if I can get the scum to take out their own, I guess I can remove most of the other´wrong´ endings too with a chance for a 3p LyLo going up to 80 percent. If I got the math right?