Newbie 1707 - Game Over

[Equinox]

VOTE COUNT 3.12

AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Hoppic (0) -
KaladinStormblessed (0) -
Murph (2) - Raskolnikov, KaladinStormblessed
Raskolnikov (1) - Murph

Not Voting: AlpacaAlpaca, Hoppic

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is Friday July 1st at 10:30 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-07-01 22:30:00)

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Well I am back and I think that you are making a possible mistake. If we vote off Murph, like I said before, we have a 50% chance of losing this game, whether or not you have a better feeling may lower the odds a little but there is still a chance that we lose however if we lynch Hoppic than we are guaranteed to move onto the next day. Kal or me will be the target of a NK and than we will have time to root out the scumbuddy tommorow. I am also pretty sure that ths scumbuddy is Murph however clearly my reads have been off this game so I am going to aim for 100% chance to make it to tommorow
VOTE: Hoppic

Pedit: If I didn't know that you were conftown I would think that, that was a little scummy

[KaladinStormblessed]

Murph/rask happened and unless both are scum, or one is one isn't because if both were town scum would've hopped on and won the game. So we've got one scum in there and one in hoppic/alpaca. Then I put murph at L-1 and neither alpaca or hoppic hammered, which would have been a win. So there is no chance of murph not being scum.

[Murph]

Murph/rask happened and unless both are scum, or one is one isn't because if both were town scum would've hopped on and won the game. So we've got one scum in there and one in hoppic/alpaca. Then I put murph at L-1 and neither alpaca or hoppic hammered, which would have been a win. So there is no chance of murph not being scum.

I'm 100% town and you are about to cost us the game. You need to unvote and reconsider.

[KaladinStormblessed]

nope. There is simply no scenario where you are town and scum didn't end the game already.

[Murph]

nope. There is simply no scenario where you are town and scum didn't end the game already.

I might suggest you come to terms with one before it's too late then.

[Hoppic]

Okay. So it can't be raskolnikov-alpaca because if it was, they would have won already.

That means Murphy MUST be scum. Am I missing anything?

[Hoppic]

Okay kaladin agrees and kaladin is town. Gulp. Third hammer lucky.

[Hoppic]

Crossed fingers

[Hoppic]

VOTE: Murph

[Equinox]

VOTE COUNT 3.13

AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Hoppic (1) - AlpacaAlpaca
KaladinStormblessed (0) -
Murph (3) - Raskolnikov, KaladinStormblessed, Hoppic
Raskolnikov (1) - Murph

Not Voting:

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is Friday July 1st at 10:30 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-07-01 22:30:00)

[Equinox]

Murph,

mafia roleblocker

, was lynched.

Night 3 deadline is Thursday, June 30th at 11pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-06-30 23:00:00)

[Equinox]

Sorry, everyone! With all that's happened this week, this game fell between the cracks.

No one was killed Night 3!

VOTE COUNT 4.0

AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Hoppic (0) -
KaladinStormblessed (0) -
Raskolnikov (0) -

Not Voting: AlpacaAlpaca, Hoppic, KaladinStormblessed, Raskolnikov

With 4 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Activity Notes: Equinox is on V/LA until July 4.

Day 4 deadline is Saturday July 16th at 7:00 am PDT which is in (expired on 2016-07-16 07:00:00)

[KaladinStormblessed]

Seems like I blocked scum tonight
targeted alpaca. I didn't die.
VOTE: alpaca

[KaladinStormblessed]

ebwop: last night

[Hoppic]

VOTE: AlpacaAlpaca

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Have you considered that Hoppic just no killed to avoid any issues since he knew that Rask and himself would hard push me tommorow

[KaladinStormblessed]

I've considered that. but I think it's unlikely, as rask already had you pegged as his next target, and so if Hoppic was scum he could have nk'ed me and been ready to win. Murph being roleblocker confirms Rask. I wish I'd remembered to say 'yesterday' that I planned on jailing you so that if I had happened to die it would have outed hoppic, but it worked out.

[Raskolnikov]

Alrightyo I'm back. I was hoping to finish this before my V/La actually but the deadline delay thing happened.

[Raskolnikov]

It is pretty lucky murph was roleblocker because if he was goon I wouldn't be 100% confirmed (but anyone reading that exchange as bussing would be almost mad anywho).
I'm just gonna doublecheck before voting but it is pretty guaranteed to be alpaca.

[Raskolnikov]

So I was actually thinking day 3 of the scenario of 4p MYLO and I'm not actually entirely sure myself how the mechanics work.
It's called MYLO because mislynch->loss but technically with a Jailkeeper I think it wouldn't be the case? So in a pool of 2 possible (non-roleblocker) scum couldn't one lynch one and jail the other?
Assuming that is the case.

Because yesterday I was already pretty sure it was alpaca before murph even scumclaimed because hoppic-murph interactions even from d2 felt genuine and hoppic's questioning of him d3 had me convinced they couldn't be partners, so I was considering trying to get an alpaca lynch because from my pov that's 50% chance (if roleblocker) of insta-win. I'll go down the hypothetical: if we didn't have that claim 1v1 yesterday and we just lynched someone and got Roleblocker flip, it alone would still prove BP existence, giving us another conftown on massclaim (BP claims. Then if scum claim VT, the 1 BP claim is conftown, but if scum claim BP, the 1 VT claim is conftown), and then lynch-one JK-the-other strat just wins the game without making an actual decision or solving it.

I decided against it because I felt like it would be really hard to convince everyone to lynch alpaca there given he was inactive and I'd have to almost make up a case on why he's scum because the partner-poe logic only works from my perspective because it assumes I'm town, and on the 50% he's goon I still have to make the same decision next day but it's harder because kala would be dead there. And kala being there yesterday, with the extra influence being conftown gives, is what saved it really.

But we're in the same end-result anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

Seems like I blocked scum tonight
targeted alpaca. I didn't die.
VOTE: alpaca

This is actually bad logic though. Alpaca is scum but he's right on this being an unreliable indicator!

If you think about it

situation 1. JK blocks scum -> the below choice is irrelevant. Scum will therefore kill assuming the later situation.
situation 2. JK blocks non-scum

choice A-> scum choose to no-kill, leaving the JK alive who may assume they blocked scum because of the no-kill
choice B-> scum choose to kill JK, but will possibly look bad in 3p if JK crumbed or made it obvious who he jailed (because it would make said person look good rather than framing him like a no kill would)

Or so it seems. But because we're in the (I think) lynch-one jail-one scenario, I believe choice A is instalose forcing them to attempt choice B.

But all this has assumptions. You can't assume mafia will play optimally, mafia may not assume town will play optimally either and so that may influence their choice too, etc etc. The game is unpredictable, I didn't think murph would do what he did because it was just scumclaiming fmpov, but it actually almost won scum the game! What I'm trying to say is that it's always more complicated and assuming no-kill = scum blocked and instavoting is dangerous. At any point in the game for example scum could have hit me (BP) and it would also have been a no-kill for example, and there's all the WIFOM too. It's harmless here and probably most times but operating on this might get you burned some % of the time.

[Raskolnikov]

@mod

Is a mylo mislynch an instaloss with a JK alive?

I don't think I've every actually been in a MYLO before so I'm not familiar with them, and I would ask outside of the game but I think that would be against rules.

[Equinox]

@mod

Is a mylo mislynch an instaloss with a JK alive?

Night phases are not automatically skipped in the event of a mislynch in a MyLo situation.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: AlpacaAlpaca