Open 895 - 09:12 PM - Postgame

[Mizuki]

Hello again.

VOTE: Cook punishment for not being first post.

[Mizuki]

VOTE: Black

alright elements you can have your E-1

[Mizuki]

VOTE: Cook

[Mizuki]

elements and ccs are the second generation of not_mafia on this site

I thought Enchant was the N_M successor

[Mizuki]

You say

"if the mafia knew my capabilities"

- so if nobody knows your towngame as I suspect is the case, what is your goal in bringing this up in the first place?

Well first things first, you can know somebody's towngame from their scumgame and vice versa.

My goal was to taunt the mafia, because I think the mafia will let me live and beat them if I taunt them. They want to shut me up, so they try to beat me fair and square.

This seems like a somewhat coin-toss strategy.

[Mizuki]

I'm curious why we should do that.

[Mizuki]

I mean, I think you have a point in the PR's being easier to find, but also, the hypoclaims happen D2. The perfect scum game here is a 3-day game, and I think max is like 5? So I don't think the PR's being easier to find on D2 is really that much of a disaster. They ended up full-claiming on D2 last game anyways.

[Mizuki]

I mean, I think you have a point in the PR's being easier to find, but also, the hypoclaims happen D2. The perfect scum game here is a 3-day game, and I think max is like 5? So I don't think the PR's being easier to find on D2 is really that much of a disaster. They ended up full-claiming on D2 last game anyways.

Feels worth considering maybe.
VT lim>VT NK leaves 5:2 T:S, and 3:2 vanilla:PR within town on D2, if PRs are found on D2 they'll really only ever be NKed and not eliminated (as long as they aren't speedwagoned).
So D3 you would in worst case be at 3:2 ELO with a flipped PRs result that is not a clear, maybe sometimes it's a clear like if a Rolecop finds a doctor, but keep in mind that last game we killed the Goon D1 so when the Roleblocker and Rolecop claimed their actions we had 4 clears. If we hadn't killed a Goon on D1 both of those results would be meaningless.

I don't think hypoclaiming D2 is right unless we are very careful to claim something that makes sense with our reads (which I was not, and to be fair that was my mistake). Even then I'm not sure, I don't think it works out if we haven't hit scum on D1.

Eh, fair enough. When I suggested it last game it was mostly as an off-the-cuff idea rather than something I had brainstormed zealously. I'm not a mechanical powerhouse by any means.

I get bad vibes about Claptastik's posting so far

VOTE: Claptastik

[Mizuki]

Statistically it does matter if we elim a town PR day 1, as was discussed previous game. Here's hoping Cook was at least a VT.

If you reduce Mafia down to a game of random chance, why even play at all?

[Mizuki]

Black what exactly do you find wrong with my reaction? Kyouko and I had a brief discussion last game on why Town lost previous runs of this setup, which involved PR's getting quickhammered/limmed after claim, which was my specific objection to the (perceived) gob quickhammer.

[Mizuki]

Eh, I suppose it's fair. I don't get heated/angry very easily, and the whole business was/would've been out of my control for the most part so the most I felt was just some mild disappointment. I could see how that could ping people, though.

Paranoia wants me to be contrary and say that gob/Cook aren't confirmed here but the more I think through it they basically are. Tinfoil scenario where Cook realize that she's not hammered and fakes it, but that would require a lot of luck and timing on Cook's part.

[Mizuki]

I will take your personality into consideration. That seems like it could be a viable explanation

I also considered your tinfoil theory too. I don't think it's that crazy of an idea that Cook noticed she wasn't hammered and played it up for the town cred. I'm actually worried about that myself

Can you tell me what you don't like about Claptastik's posts?

I just, don't think scum!gob plays a fake hammer this way. It's a bad reason to call someone conf, but I just can't help but feel that gob, as scum, would see your E-1 and either think you were deliberately reaction testing there or simply just, play it in a different way? I don't know quite what I expect gob's "scum fake-hammer" to look like, I just don't think that was it.

Claptastik's push on Elements feels really lazy and 100 pings me as really weird for how early in the game it was made.

[Mizuki]

Wait so Mizuki did you not know Cook was not hammered?

I saw Black post E-1 and just, believed it, I was not paying too much attention to VC's. In hindsight, you're correct I should've realized it was a fake hammer, but I just genuinely wasn't paying that much attention.

[Mizuki]

Claptastik's push on Elements feels really lazy and 100 pings me as really weird for how early in the game it was made.

Speaking of lazy pushes, you've talked ABOUT me a couple times, but made no attempt to talk TO me. Is that how you usually sort people?

Yes, frankly. I don't really engage super heavily with people unless I want to get inside their headspace. You can call it strange, and tbh it is, but I tend to do better when I sort of, approach the game as an outsider? If that makes sense? As if I'm solving as a spectator rather than an active player. It's also just kind of how I talk.

[Mizuki]

Would like an answer on this to start

@Mizuki

What about Clap's posting stands out? I feel like very little is standing out this game, except gob. All I can remember about Clap and Cook is them briefly talking about policy

I pointed out post 100, which was the post that pinged me specifically. It stuck out to me as someone who had zero interest in solving Elements alignment

[Mizuki]

Claptastik's push on Elements feels really lazy and 100 pings me as really weird for how early in the game it was made.

Speaking of lazy pushes, you've talked ABOUT me a couple times, but made no attempt to talk TO me. Is that how you usually sort people?

Yes, frankly. I don't really engage super heavily with people unless I want to get inside their headspace. You can call it strange, and tbh it is, but I tend to do better when I sort of, approach the game as an outsider? If that makes sense? As if I'm solving as a spectator rather than an active player. It's also just kind of how I talk.

That's fair. Different people have different approaches. But as a spectator, how did you conclude that I made a push on Elements? Here's what happened:

91 - I naked vote Elements.
92 - Elements asks why I think it's scum.
93 - I say I'm not at all sure, but I like the vote.

If that were a "push," I'd agree that it was lazy. But IMO you're being disingenuous in describing that as a "push."

What do you call post 100 if not a push? You're actively giving a reason as to why you want an Elements elimination there, and again, it seems like you were pushing for it with zero actual interest in figuring out her actual alignment.

[Mizuki]

What do you call post 100 if not a push? You're actively giving a reason as to why you want an Elements elimination there, and again, it seems like you were pushing for it with zero actual interest in figuring out her actual alignment.

100 is a point on mafia theory in response to 99. Seems obvious to me in context.

And 99 was in response to 98, which was in turn a response to 97 which was about...Elements. gob's post there were a direct follow-up to your vote and posts against Elements. Indirectly or not, you were pushing there.

Mizuki. Definitely feels weird and potentially scummy, but also like mislim bait. Not in the sense they're LHF moreso just the gamestate. Would still lim this Day 1.

FWIW I agree I've been weird so far but mostly I just haven't found a place to get my foot in the door. In the early stages of the game I mostly read on tone and everyone's sounded fine to me so far, not much has pinged me in a way that I can convince myself to actively push, and I don't really want to push anything my heart isn't in, and there isn't much that I feel like engaging with. Claptastik is really the only thing so far.

[Mizuki]

I do disagree with the Kyouko scumread here though because I feel like how she reacted to the fake-hammer, and specifically with 221, feels townie. The paranoia about gob and Cook and the way she considers all the possibilities, in a way that doesn't feel like she's just trying to throw around shade or break-up a potential town-block.

[Mizuki]

Saying you have hard time sinking your teeth in the game is a little scummy to me.

Also can you tell im in a bad mood?

Personally, I get way more into a game as scum......or at least I can find it easier to sink my teeth into it.

I don't get the push on Black here

-Doc

on the note of not getting pushes, i don't get the push on clap

I don't like someone telling me to join a wagon, especially when said person hasn't been a fan of me(and my hydra)

-Doc

Is this all your read on Clap amounts to? This seems like a playstyle clash rather than something substantial.

[Mizuki]

I'm steadily running out of time to actually play with holidays approaching and might have to go VLA soon. Making time where I can.

UNVOTE:

Broad strokes thoughts that Claptastik's posting has improved steadily over the last few pages and his most recent posts regarding the wagons read as a very townie thought process. I maintain my tr on Kyouko and I'm liking Black too.

gob's hypothesis on limming the hydra I think makes sense in a 3+ scum game but doesn't work in a 2-scum game. I think the defense overall is townie though, I don't get a sense of trying to deflect pressure off a partner. I'm frustrated with his push on me, mostly because we haven't actually engaged each other at all, but I suppose that's mostly on me for being inactive.

@Elements, what was the point of your revote in 342? You were already voting the hydra. It actually feels kinda scummy to me there after Clap switched votes and Black expressed interest in voting D&D.

[Mizuki]

@Elements, what was the point of your revote in 342? You were already voting the hydra. It actually feels kinda scummy to me there after Clap switched votes and Black expressed interest in voting D&D.

Do you actually think it feels scummy or is it just unexpected and you dont understand it?
Clap switches a vote and Black expresses interest then I revote
What's the scum motivation?
Making Black think there's more interest in the wagon than there actually is? Making Black not change vote yet because "there's 2 more votes on D&D now and it's a micro"?

The former. I don't really see a reason to double vote there except to try and showcase a sense of momentum on a wagon. Momentum often gets people moving places without thinking. It's actually like, the main thing keeping me away from the D&D wagon. I guess it could just be you being yourself but the timing of it makes me think it goes a bit beyond that.

Would also be willing to go Mizuki. She's not giving any indications one way or the other on most reads until her last post in 395, where she asks a question of Elements and infers it being scummy, but doesn't do anything about it.

I didn't do anything about it because I wanted to see Elements response, because I wasn't actually sure what I thought about it. I'm still not actually sure, to be honest.

Can agree with a Shaddowez vote here.

[Mizuki]

VOTE: Shaddowez

E-1

[Mizuki]

V/LA until Sunday

Schedule's getting busy with Christmas stuff among other things. Extremely limited time. See if I can't get back to the game on Sunday.

[Mizuki]

I'm back, catching up. Responding to the post above me since it's the first thing I see though, I agree I'm walled off as a result of a combination of IRL destroying my activity and the fact that I'm simply just, not having a whole lot of fun this game.

[Mizuki]

Reading from D2 start and diving through various ISO's. I kind of want to say Elements is scum here? I think there's content here that looks townie but there's certain things about her posting, like a lack of response to Kyouko's 737, which I actually think is a good point that got buried, and voting with Black after voicing suspicion on her all day without any inclination that the read on Black has actually changed. I also just think that a lot of the content could be faked.

Gob still town, Kyouko still town, Black I'm paranoid about but I think is probably just town.

Cook I flip-flop on. I think she's probably just LHF? But that read deteriorates the longer she stays at E-1 without being hammered.

Honestly I kind of fuck with the D&D/Elements solve because when I look through their ISO's the reads that those slots make towards each other feel hollow and half-hearted. Elements has "pushed" D&D twice for very shallow reasons and then jumped ship both times.

I'm back, catching up. Responding to the post above me since it's the first thing I see though, I agree I'm walled off as a result of a combination of IRL destroying my activity and the fact that I'm simply just, not having a whole lot of fun this game.

Why are you not having fun

Holidays, various family troubles, and the resulting impact on my mental health have been destroying my ability and motivation to play, and my low activity has compounded to the point where I feel like I don't really have an effect on the game at this point beyond my vote. It's the point I kind of want to be limmed here simply because I think if we mislim here than I will simply get auto-limmed tommorow in ELO and town loses.

[Mizuki]

Elements what is your actual read on Black at the moment?

[Mizuki]

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

[Mizuki]

Spoiler: Kyouko Quotes

What exactly is your conclusion Kyouko? You saying Elements is mafia here?

I take some issue with this analysis cause a lot of it is assuming things.

My "conclusion", if you want to call it that, is that Cook being at E-1 recently is not really strong evidence to refute that she is obviously town from the hammer, given the makeup of the wagon. Mizuki said her being E-1 makes her not obviously town from the fake-hammer reaction, but one of the players voting her believes her reaction was towny and another has voted every slot except for one. I don't think that makes as convincing a case against Cook being the towniest on the shaddowes wagon as Mizuki claims.

Furthermore, your analysis also makes an assumption, a less likely assumption, that scum killed Clap because he was on the wagon and not because they thought he was a PR. If scum were killing someone on the wagon for "numeric" reasons like you're suggesting, I think it's far more likely they would kill Cook than Claptastik.

Do you contest anything specific in my reasoning? I feel like you're the one making unsupported claims here

What makes it more likely that Mafia specced Clap as a PR? And Cook being "obviously town" is quite clearly a contested claim here considering she was at E-1 just moments ago. I don't think your NKA tracks here.

Shooting randomly, mafia would have a 1/3 chance of hitting a PR, or 2/5 if you assume Cook is town and trueclaimed about being VT. Both of these are less than 50% so it makes it more than likely he was targeted as a PR rather than randomly flipped as a PR.

Also if you look at Cook's E-1 wagon there was Black who herself says Cook is probably town from the fake hammer, and Elements who has literally voted every slot in the game except shaddowes'. Saying she was just at E-1 sounds a lot worse than it was imo.

I think I'm more likely to be correct here than gob

shaddowez

(EXECUTED):

Claptastik

, Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black, Cook
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Elements,

gob

Elements (1): ssbm_Kyouko
Claptastik (1):

shaddowez

On a mislim wagon Day 1, there is always at least one wolf. Given the night kill was on the shaddowez wagon (Claptastik) I find it more likely there is 1 mafia on shaddowez and 1 mafia off. Why? Because if the mafia NK'd Claptastik on the main shaddowez wagon, it means they aren't scared of making the PoE from the main-wagon being 50/50 with 2 mafia in it.

This leaves Elements / ssbm_kyouko

Between the two I find ssbm_kyouko far more likely to mafia. The main reason is I feel she isn't being as forceful and open as normally. It feels like she was playing scared. Not to mention the difference in activity.

For the on-wagon wolf.

First off I want to mention that Elements and Kyoko together also have w/w equity but that is relatively unlikely. Elements is hard to read at EoD1 for me, but I lean kyoko over Ele for that PoE.

Anyway for the on-wagon wolf,

I don't really find Cook's play at EoD1 to indicate they're wolf. It's possible Cook is trying to go TWTBAW but it just seems really attention-drawing in a bad way for no reason.

Doc and Drew, Mizuki, Black is who I would look at in that PoE. Frankly I feel like they all have wolf equity which is why I dont really want to lim in that pool today.

If I were to guess right now though, Doc and Drew. A lot of Drew's engagement feels fake af.

You're starting from a faulty premise in more than one way here - first off, there are 3 living players off-wagon, and only 2 scum. From any one of our POVs both scum can be off-wagon. More importantly though, Claptastik flipped Roleblocker. I think it's more likely than not that he was speculated to be a PR and killed for that reason. I don't think him being on the wagon is why he was killed, otherwise I feel like Cook would have been the target as she's obviously town off of the fake hammer. Under normal circumstances, I think your assessment is correct and there is 1 scum on, 1 scum off, but in this case I don't think that's a safe assumption to make. In this case it's arbitrary - could be right, but if you're wrong it's a loss. One Day away from ELO is not the time to be assuming a less likely scenario is the case.

What gives Black and Mizuki "wolf equity" for you? What posts of D&D's feel fake?

I still disagree with your NK spec but lets shelve that for right now: Where is all this actually leading you right now? Did you enter this debate just because you think gob is on the wrong path, or did you enter to actually try and push the votes somewhere?

Because after waking up and re-reading this conversation, it kinda just ends up reading to me like you're arguing with gob to argue with him. There's

analysis

here, sure, but it doesn't seem like you're actively trying to advance things here, just throw up a roadblock in gob's path.

[Mizuki]

I do think gob is on the wrong path. So far gob has responded as I think town should - there's no concrete evidence he is being willingly ignorant here.

I do suspect him, and if he's scum then Elements certainly isn't his partner, which means his partner is off-wagon amongst you, D&D, Black, and Cook.

If gob is town, his theory is still less likely than Clap being killed because Clap was a PR, which makes the Elements lim a crapshoot without some additional evidence.

I think you're the most likely to be scum here and as long as gob is advocating for a lim within myself and Elements, he won't be voting you. If he is town, I still need to work with him despite his obstructed worldview, and the easiest way to do that I think is to show him where he's going wrong

I'm getting mixed signals, what is your actual read of gob here? If you're townreading him, than I think the way you spoke to him on the NK spec doesn't make sense. In those posts I quoted, you don't bring up my name once, or try to prove to him that I'm the likeliest scum candidate, you're mostly just focused on trying to prove him and myself wrong.

And for that matter, what's your actual read of Elements? I can't remember if you've stated this already, and your most recent posts give me the impression you're mostly just opposed it based on probability.

[Mizuki]

VOTE: Elements


I don't really put much stock in meta-reads, not that I've played with Kyouko much at all regardless, and honestly with the way she's responded to both me and you I feel she's fairly townie. I'm standing by what I said in 861.

[Mizuki]

VOTE: Elements

I don't really put much stock in meta-reads, not that I've played with Kyouko much at all regardless, and honestly with the way she's responded to both me and you I feel she's fairly townie. I'm standing by what I said in 861.

861 was a post by Kyo.

Not sure I get your progression on her.

I fucked up and forgot my own post number. It was 869