Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Dry-fit]

Why don't you think going into your ideas will help the town?

I can't really go into it without revealing what they are.

I'll bring my ideas up when they become relevant.

I don't agree with your view on questioning acryon. Probing questions are like leads in a case. Some of them go somewhere, some don't. The best thing to do with the leads that don't go anywhere is to abandon them. There's no need to follow up. Also I think TobyLoby has been offering other kinds of content.

[acryon]

I don't agree with your view on questioning acryon. Probing questions are like leads in a case. Some of them go somewhere, some don't. The best thing to do with the leads that don't go anywhere is to abandon them. There's no need to follow up. Also I think TobyLoby has been offering other kinds of content.

I agree that some don't go anywhere and they don't require follow-up, but there was no follow-up on almost any of them. So unless Toby has some extraordinary record of consecutive bad leads in this game, there is still some missing content.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Chaos' post,

Also, your case against Mr.Blonde has no real evidence against it and I do not understand why a wagon is building on him so early because of a post where he said "let's dance."

I do find scummy, but in the past I've found it to be a stronger associative tell than a flat out. A scum coming in to defend their buddy sort of way. Two votes on a buddy may look more dire than it is. I can especially see this with a newer player. I suppose it could be a scum Chaos busing a scum farside and overexagerrating a wagon but I find it less likely.

I like this post.

I think the tone of the post reinforces the defensive aspect. It's a slight example of more reductio ad absurdum, whereby chaos is suggesting that the phrase 'let's dance' was the cause of a 'wagon'. Some specific wording in the post like 'no real evidence' for example, also give off a scummy vibe.

[Skelda]

Why are you turning this into argumentum ad absurdum by changing the argument to involve all replacements, requested or not?

Because I'm not. Those links were two games where the mod specifically stated replacement was requested, and one where a pregame replacement occurred without sufficient delay to gamestart for it to be anything

but

a request.

"Active elsewhere" is not relevant; there is no cause and effect relationship between replace-out requests and activity elsewhere. What's next, are we going to limit the criteria to a specific moon phase, making it even more impossible to get a sufficient sample size to be meaningful? How about only looking at replacements who are dog owners?

Oh yuck. That is kind of twisty isn't it? Look, I get that farside's thing sucked, but at the same time, you can't try to feign completely not understanding his point. Active elsewhere isn't entirely irrelevant in his mind because he thinks that some players just don't like playing scum and are liable to replace out if they get a scum role, but just replacing out because you are a Newbie is completely null. Now, that isn't entirely accurate obviously, because some players just realize they signed up for too many games and don't have the time to devote to all of them, so they choose. And it isn't fair to assume that someone is scum based on something pregame that they had nothing to do with and can't make a case against. But you at least have to see why farside thinks what he does. It isn't that hard to figure out. But you try and pound the nails in the coffin and make him seem much worse than he is by comparing something that obviously have some minor level of relevance to something with NO relevance. This really isn't a good post.

VOTE: Beli There we go.

[Skelda]

Chaos' post,

Also, your case against Mr.Blonde has no real evidence against it and I do not understand why a wagon is building on him so early because of a post where he said "let's dance."

I do find scummy, but in the past I've found it to be a stronger associative tell than a flat out. A scum coming in to defend their buddy sort of way. Two votes on a buddy may look more dire than it is. I can especially see this with a newer player. I suppose it could be a scum Chaos busing a scum farside and overexagerrating a wagon but I find it less likely.

I like this post.

I think the tone of the post reinforces the defensive aspect. It's a slight example of more reductio ad absurdum, whereby chaos is suggesting that the phrase 'let's dance' was the cause of a 'wagon'. Some specific wording in the post like 'no real evidence' for example, also give off a scummy vibe.

I really like you Amy. I really hope you aren't scum because I'm just writing you off as Town in my head. Probably shouldn't do that, but I don't like thinking that people who agree with me are scum.

Anyway, with Chaos, I do agree that his single post was scummy, but he is a newer player and I'm kind of just giving him a pass and letting him redeem himself. There is confusion in that post, and I think the confusion is genuine whether he is Town or scum. Meep, I could see him going either way.

[FakedBlogger]

I have no idea what's going on.

UNVOTE:

I'll give this a try tomorrow.

[Skelda]

I have no idea what's going on.

UNVOTE:

I'll give this a try tomorrow.

I feel like this is a Towntell. I know I definitely felt this way just before my posts in this game. Would scum be less likely to say that they were confused? I dunno, I feel like Town are more open about how they are feeling.

[TobyLoby]

Concerning Beli,

Beli, please tone down the sarcasm just a tad as it's not necessary and does nothing to aid the conversation.

I'm afraid I'm going to go ahead and reject that unfounded stipulation -- and, by the transitive property, the demand premised by it.

I look at this and go, would scum be so flippant?

[Skelda]

Concerning Beli,

Beli, please tone down the sarcasm just a tad as it's not necessary and does nothing to aid the conversation.

I'm afraid I'm going to go ahead and reject that unfounded stipulation -- and, by the transitive property, the demand premised by it.

I look at this and go, would scum be so flippant?

I assumed that Beli would just be like that regardless of alignment. But that kind of brashness does seem town in general, so I dunno.

[Baezu]

Vote Count 1.03

Belisarius: (2) Amy Farrah Fowler, Skelda
Chaoslord54: (3) Dry-fit, Mr_Blonde, acryon
TobyLoby: (1) Farside22
Mr_Blonde: (1) RoyalApe
Farside22: (2) Belisarius, Chaoslord54
acryon: (2) TobyLoby, Snugglyduckling

Not Voting: cerberus48, Astinus, NakedJogger

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-09-09 18:18:00)

Mod Notes:
None

[Mr_Blonde]

Reading up.

[Mr_Blonde]

Amy

, what are your thoughts on farside?

I can see that farside isn't simply pushing her replacement tell (I'll call it that for now). She's also involved in other elements of the game, commenting and asking question, so townpoints to her in that respect, as I've noticed that sometimes scum looking to lynch town tend to spend all their time focusing on their lynch target of choice.
As for her replacement tell, whatever my personal thoughts on it may be, it looks like she genuinely believes in it. Scum using it ONLY to lynch someone would've probably dropped the case much earlier without bothering to do things like bringing up evidence.

She is also analyzing Mr Blonde's reactions, adding to the fact that it's genuine.

So I'd say I can classify farside as Null/Town.

Where have you seen this analysis?

Unvote

and

Vote Mr Blonde

Something makes me think he is mafia.

Would you like to inform us of what that something is?
Or if it's gut feeling then are there any specific posts that provoked it?

Some examples of why he is town reading you would be sweet too.

Just feelings I got. No hard evidence obviously. Specific post would be 28 though in hindsight it doesn't look as bad as I thought. I guess it was just going off what had been posted so far though now that more things have been posted, that doesn't stick out as much to me any more.

Amy seems town just because I feel like I want to trust her for some reason. Do I

need

a reason? Haha because I don't have one.

Interesting that you both asked questions to me about each other.

Need

is probably a bit stronger of a word than necessary. But you

should

have a reason for why you think she's town. Even if it's just gut or 'tone' (how their posts read) you should be able to give some explanation as to why you feel the way you do regarding other players.

One of the best tools that I've found playing forum Mafia to catch scum is by looking for consistency from others. Are their explanations plausible? Do I agree with the conclusion they come to based on the evidence they use to support it? Basically - do the dots connect? Now this isn't 100% sure-fire going to catch you scum, but it has worked for me a lot in the past. Scum tend to have a hard time faking internal consistency and over a period of time that becomes glaringly obvious.

Generally players that hand out reads for seemingly arbitrary reasons get the stink eye from me.

Fair enough but I rarely find reasons to suspect people other than arbitrary ones so prepare to give me a lot of stink eyes.

Townpoints for the above post.

While I partially agree with acryon and hope you find some legitimate reasons too, this post jumps out to me as towny, if only because I can't really see scum, especially newbie scum, replying in that way.

I've already declared Duckling as town for his free-flowing posts. Get your own read

Chaos' post,

Also, your case against Mr.Blonde has no real evidence against it and I do not understand why a wagon is building on him so early because of a post where he said "let's dance."

I do find scummy, but in the past I've found it to be a stronger associative tell than a flat out. A scum coming in to defend their buddy sort of way. Two votes on a buddy may look more dire than it is. I can especially see this with a newer player. I suppose it could be a scum Chaos busing a scum farside and overexagerrating a wagon but I find it less likely.

I like this post.

I think the tone of the post reinforces the defensive aspect. It's a slight example of more reductio ad absurdum, whereby chaos is suggesting that the phrase 'let's dance' was the cause of a 'wagon'. Some specific wording in the post like 'no real evidence' for example, also give off a scummy vibe.

@Toby

- Please explain the bolded quote of yours that is nested here. I missed this earlier, but here you appear to be linking me with Chaos by saying that he is coming to my defense - but end the quote by saying that he could just be busing Farside as well. I'm not following here.

You are saying that two other slots could potentially be scumbros with Chaos, which essentially makes Chaos scum in either situation, but you are voting whom? Also - I feel it's very early for such associative tells, even if soft. I find it a bit troubling that you'd associate this sort of defense to automatically mean wolf/wolf instead of potentially Chaos buddying/WKing.

I have no idea what's going on.

UNVOTE:

I'll give this a try tomorrow.

I feel like this is a Towntell

. I know I definitely felt this way just before my posts in this game. Would scum be less likely to say that they were confused? I dunno, I feel like Town are more open about how they are feeling.

I couldn't disagree more. I also find it odd that you'd consider this a Townie post.

[Mr_Blonde]

Farside
Chaos
Toby
Skelda
Jogger

Updated null-scum list.

[farside22]

Not that I generally feel the need to respond to this type of thing, but it seems a little disingenuous to call quoting the wiki to be helpful and give a newbie an accurate definition "regurgitating" it. Additionally, 59 was a real post. So at that time, I had one post helping a newbie, one post adding onto someone's argument, and a third post detailing my reads with a blurb regarding my playstyle during RVS. Trying to say a "good chunk" of my contribution was from what you said it was seems likes a hard sell.

You quoted. It doesn't matter why or for whom. How else would you define it? I suppose "quoting from the wiki" is the best way to put it. It is nothing more besides that. I'm looking at your posts on an ongoing contribution basis and that is what I see.

What was the point if your question to astinus?

I didn't ask a question to Astinus. I asked someone a question about Astinus and I think it is self-evident why.

Sorry, what was the point of your question to duckling?
I don't see what it was.

Duckling

I'm impressed because I felt this exact same way.

Unvote and Vote acryon

Why didn't you say something sooner? What is acryon scum motivation for doing it?

Now that you put it that way it seems pretty reasonable.

I admit I didn't really follow your argument up to this point; who are you saying this makes more likely to be scum? #toolazytorereaditall

Scum. How did you miss this?


@dryfit: do you agree with what Toby/duck feel about acryon?
If so why?

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Amy

, what are your thoughts on farside?

I can see that farside isn't simply pushing her replacement tell (I'll call it that for now). She's also involved in other elements of the game, commenting and asking question, so townpoints to her in that respect, as I've noticed that sometimes scum looking to lynch town tend to spend all their time focusing on their lynch target of choice.
As for her replacement tell, whatever my personal thoughts on it may be, it looks like she genuinely believes in it. Scum using it ONLY to lynch someone would've probably dropped the case much earlier without bothering to do things like bringing up evidence.

She is also analyzing Mr Blonde's reactions, adding to the fact that it's genuine.

So I'd say I can classify farside as Null/Town.

Where have you seen this analysis?

In post 41 she mentions that she was going to see how the replacement reacts, and she mentioned that so far you were pretty nonplussed about it.

[farside22]

Well most of the game I was defending my statement.

Blond (who I may call Brian because of avatar) why is bel a town read? I can't see why he mentions and pushes this as a scum tell.

Noting to self.
I just read the last 2 post of this pages. Sleep. Mmmm

[RoyalApe]

Generally players that hand out reads for seemingly arbitrary reasons get the stink eye from me.

Fair enough but I rarely find reasons to suspect people other than arbitrary ones so prepare to give me a lot of stink eyes.

I hope this isn't the case. It isn't that hard to find at least semi-legitimate reasons to suspect players.

I don't like this response. It seems to indicate that it is OK to find arbitrary reasons to point to in order to justify a crap vote.

I generally like to see real reasons myself, it gives more to judge players by, both good and bad. If Duckling isn't going to provide reasons for his suspicions - ok - it will just make it harder for me to trust him.

[RoyalApe]

VOTE: Mr Blonde, sorry I missed your birthday. Have a belated b-day vote.

Thanks?

Any opinion on what's happened thus far?

If farside had sat on the vote for the reasons stated, I would definitely be reading scum there. As is, I'm willing to believe it was used to generate discussion.

Chaos jumping in with a farside vote seemed like he was trying to jumpstart a wagon, so I'm reading it as scummy.

[RoyalApe]

A.F.F. is probably my best town read so far.

The first few posts that I really noticed from her seemed like she was just trying to appear to be participating as I saw her throwing questions out and I felt she was trying to mediate more than participate in the discussion itself.

Now that I see her reacting to some of the responses with her opinions, I'm feeling better about her.

[RoyalApe]

I have no idea what's going on.

UNVOTE:

I'll give this a try tomorrow.

I feel like this is a Towntell

. I know I definitely felt this way just before my posts in this game. Would scum be less likely to say that they were confused? I dunno, I feel like Town are more open about how they are feeling.

I couldn't disagree more. I also find it odd that you'd consider this a Townie post.

I thought it was an odd read as well. By itself, I think Jogger's post is null, just a bit of frustration.

Skelda's post is scummy to me because I'm reading it as "hey, this is a townie, I know because I felt the same way". In other words, I'm reading this as trying to get town to subconsciously think Skelda is townie without having to outright state "Hey everybody, I'm town, please move along elsewhere".

[RoyalApe]

Following up on my last post where I state that Skelda sounded scummy, I did an ISO on him and I like everything else that I read. Back in the null pile.

[RoyalApe]

Because I don't think going into them now will help the town.

Here's how I like to look at it. Each of us is working on the same puzzle, but some of us find different pieces at different points. By providing what pieces you have(as little as they may be), you could provide someone else with the missing piece they need to put together a more solid case.

I really like this post. Encouraging town to work together is good. Assuming we see the same contributions from him that he is asking for from the town, this helps me read Acryon as town.

[chaoslord54]

Hey guys sorry been out of town so in posting something real quick from my phone. Will read over and make a real post tonight

[acryon]

Generally players that hand out reads for seemingly arbitrary reasons get the stink eye from me.

Fair enough but I rarely find reasons to suspect people other than arbitrary ones so prepare to give me a lot of stink eyes.

I hope this isn't the case. It isn't that hard to find at least semi-legitimate reasons to suspect players.

I don't like this response. It seems to indicate that it is OK to find arbitrary reasons to point to in order to justify a crap vote.

I generally like to see real reasons myself, it gives more to judge players by, both good and bad. If Duckling isn't going to provide reasons for his suspicions - ok - it will just make it harder for me to trust him.

I think this may just be an issues of definition. Arbitrary means without reason, and I said with reasons, so it wouldn't be arbitrary. I think the ultimate point is that I think even a suspicion based on

something

legitimate is good, even if it may not be the strongest case in the world, because at least that little something can get us somewhere.

[Astinus]

I made a response about Astinus in post 78. I don't know if we can take anything serious from their actions or read from it.

Why does something I do in the GD section (Which was a bad choice, I admit) have to interfere with how seriously I'm taken in a game? I think you should forget about it and move on.