Open 609: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

Luna Fox · Post Post #1317 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:10 pm

Panther's votes over time:

Alchemist

, Diego,

Alchemist

,

Alchemist (again)

.
It looks like the only 2 ppl Panther has voted are Diego and Alchemist, of which Alchemist is confirmed town, Panther's votes have never been on scum.

TellTaleHeart / Diego votes over time:

Bella

,

Lizard

,

SilverJaws (Again)

,

Alchemist

, Mario
Probably Town

Sparrowbird/Mario votes over time:

Bella

,

Bella (Again)

, Self-Vote,

Silverjaws

,

Silverjaws (Again)

,

Performer

,

Performer (Again)

, PantherPunt,

Performer

,

ika

, -Not counting that shiro vote lol-,

ika (Again)

Most likely town.

By voting History

Most suspect to least suspect

Panther (Never voted Scum)
Diego/TTH (Voted 1 scum)
Sparrowbird/Mario (Voted both scum)

VCA coming shortly.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1318 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:20 pm

Disclaimer:

I just found this VCA strategy the other day, the algorithm is very known, im not entirely sure im doing this right however, specially because the results are the entirely opposite of my previous post

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Most likely scum to least likely:

4.25

MarioManiac4

0.96

Diego1487

0.6

PantherPunt

Conclusion after both:

Scum is 1 of Panther/Mario.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1319 (ISO) » Thu Oct 01, 2015 6:08 pm

So basically after all that work i only figured that Diego's town orz

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1320 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:10 am

Fuck VCA.
Seriously.
If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.
Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

Luna Fox · Post Post #1321 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:26 am

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Fuck VCA.

Why?

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.

Have i mentioned i want to lynch you today? No, im just said you're 1 of 2 possible suspects, im narrowing down the suspect pool to find the last remaining scum.

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

No, although i didn't know you were townreading me, guess you're good at faking it.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1322 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:34 am

In post 1321, Luna Fox wrote:
In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Fuck VCA.

Why?

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.

Have i mentioned i want to lynch you today? No, im just said you're 1 of 2 possible suspects, im narrowing down the suspect pool to find the last remaining scum.

In post 1320, MarioManiac4 wrote:Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

No, although i didn't know you were townreading me, guess you're good at faking it.

1. Because it's wrong
2. Yep, but you literally had me down as a 5 or some shit.
3. I'm scumreading Panther which makes you scrubs town!

Luna Fox · Post Post #1323 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:49 am

Ok apparently both extremes are suspect, i need to research more onto this, but that'd make Panther guilty by VCA and never voting scum, and you'd only be guilty by VCA, which is a point in your favor, will probably do a reads check on Panther, but im pretty sure last time i did that his reads were consistently wrong (which is usually a sign of scum).

Luna Fox · Post Post #1324 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:07 am

VOTE: Panther
I've made my decission.

PantherPunt · Post Post #1325 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:08 am

You guys mind giving me til Sunday to get my head back into this? Getting married tomorrow so I'm a little preoccupied. Airport time Sunday on the way to the honeymoon so I should be able to dive back in then

Luna Fox · Post Post #1326 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:23 pm

Congrats Panther

PantherPunt · Post Post #1327 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:00 pm

In post 1318, Luna Fox wrote:
Disclaimer:
I just found this VCA strategy the other day, the algorithm is very known, im not entirely sure im doing this right however, specially because the results are the entirely opposite of my previous post

Spoiler: Vote Counts
Base Chance of Scum 3/13 > 23%

Bellaphant
- 5 -
Shiro
,
ika
,
Alchemist21
,
Luna Fox
, MarioManiac4

Luna Fox
- 2 -
Performer
,
Bellaphant

Silverjaws
- 1 -
Firebringer

Diego1487 - 1 - PantherPunt

Shiro
- 1 -
MaxwellPuckett

Vedith
- 1 -
Silverjaws

Not Voting:
Vedith
, Diego1487

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Silverjaws
- 5 -
Firebringer
,
Shiro
,
ika
,
Vedith
, Diego1487

Bellaphant
- 2 -
Alchemist21
, MarioManiac4
Diego1487 - 2 - PantherPunt,
Silverjaws

Luna Fox
- 1 -
Performer

MarioManiac4 - 1 -
MaxwellPuckett

Not Voting:
Bellaphant
,
Luna Fox

Possible Scum: Diego1487

Silverjaws
- 6 -
Firebringer
,
Shiro
,
ika
,
Vedith
, MarioManiac4,
Alchemist21

MarioManiac4 - 3 -
Bellaphant
,
Performer
,
MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -
Silverjaws

Alchemist21 - 1 -
PantherPunt

Firebringer - 1 -
Luna Fox

Not Voting:
Diego1487

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Silverjaws
- 7 -
Shiro
,
Alchemist21
,
Vedith
, MarioManiac4,
Firebringer
, Diego1487,
Luna Fox

MarioManiac4 - 3 -
Bellaphant
,
Performer
,
MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -
Silverjaws

Alchemist21
- 1 - PantherPunt

Not Voting:
ika

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4, Dieg1487

Base Chance of Scum: 2/10 > 20%

Alchemist21
- 3 - PantherPunt,
Vedith
,
Shiro

Performer
- 3 - MarioManiac4,
Alchemist21
,
Luna Fox

MarioManiac4
- 1 -
Performer

Not Voting:
ika
,
MaxwellPuckett
, Diego1487

Possible Scum: PantherPunt, MarioManiac4

Performer
- 5 - MarioManiac4,
Alchemist21
,
Luna Fox
,
Shiro
,
Vedith

Alchemist21
- 2 - PantherPunt, Diego1487

Vedith
- 1 -
Performer

Not Voting:
ika
,
MaxwellPuckett

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Performer
- 6 -
Alchemist21
,
Luna Fox
,
Shiro
, MarioManiac4,
Vedith
,
ika

Diego1487 - 1 -
Performer

Not Voting:
MaxwellPuckett
, Diego1487, PantherPunt

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Base Chance of Scum: 2/7 > 28.5%

ika
- 4 - MarioManiac4,
Vedith
,
Luna Fox
,
Alchemist21

MarioManiac4 - 1 - Diego1487

Not Voting:
ika
, PantherPunt

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Most likely scum to least likely:

4.25
MarioManiac4

0.96
Diego1487

0.6
PantherPunt

Conclusion after both:

Scum is 1 of Panther/Mario.

Why even post your algorithm results that say I'm least likely scum then vote for me? Like you can't be that upside down of a wolf can you? If that's a ploy, congrats you're better than I perceived you.

Out of curiosity, what wolf value does your algorithm give your votes, Luna?

PantherPunt · Post Post #1328 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:00 pm

In post 1326, Luna Fox wrote:
Congrats Panther

Thx in 14 hours you can call me Mr Panther

Luna Fox · Post Post #1329 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:09 pm

In post 1327, PantherPunt wrote:Why even post your algorithm results that say I'm least likely scum then vote for me? Like you can't be that upside down of a wolf can you? If that's a ploy, congrats you're better than I perceived you.

I already said why i was voting you tho, and it's not related to the algorithm, also it's not mine, it's something i found i wanted to try out, im not sure how accurate the results are atm, if mario flips scum then i guess i can trust it from now on in future games.

In post 1327, PantherPunt wrote:Out of curiosity, what wolf value does your algorithm give your votes, Luna?

The algorithm treats myself as conf town since that's my role PM, i could try and check by adding me as unflipped, tho that would also lower everyone else's chances of being scum.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1330 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:12 pm

Eh actually i just did that and it gave me a 2.09

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1331 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:44 pm

Also I have fucked up VCA on the performer wagon!
Let me find the post!

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1332 (ISO) » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:46 pm

In post 882, MarioManiac4 wrote:VOTE: silverjaws

In post 883, MarioManiac4 wrote:to mess up vca

In post 1108, MarioManiac4 wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Performer

Seriously, this guy's scum. I've given my reasoning and yet he continues to (unless i miss something) have me as his top scumread for the following convincing reasons:

In post 1122, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1121, Shiro wrote:
In post 1120, PantherPunt wrote:Sorry for double post

Yes as you have noticed we take serious offence from double posting. This is unredeemable.

VOTE: PantherPunt
REBELLIONNNNNNNNNNN

In post 1123, MarioManiac4 wrote:VOTE: Performer

In post 1219, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1218, Vedith wrote:VOTE: Shiro

legitimate vote IMO, i'll sheep it
VOTE: Shiro

In post 1221, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1220, Vedith wrote:Right, well that was a load of hoo har. where do we go now?

ika
VOTE: ika

Actually I have fucked up VCA in every single day!
So yeah!

Diego1487 · Post Post #1333 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:28 am

Prodge.

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1334 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:44 am

In post 1315, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 503, Sparrowbird wrote:
Sparrowbird
ika
Firebringer
Vedith

PantherPunt
Luna Fox
Flow Alpha
TellTaleHeart

Alchemist21
MaxwellPuckett

Lizard_Buttock
Shiro

Bellaphant

In post 648, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 636, PantherPunt wrote:
In post 631, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 624, Luna Fox wrote:Interesting to note, Sparrow/Mario keep avoiding mentioning anything related to why they wouldn't prefer to lynch TTH over Silver, despite being asked multiple times by panther.

There are more scummy players.

Can you help me out and give some semblance of support for any of your reads? I don't understand why you keep refusing to do so, tbh. I mean- unless you are scum and are trying to avoid spewing your team since others have meta on you.

The reason I made a fucking alt is that I'm fucking tired of meta.
And my reads are actually mostly gut. Silverjaws has slanged mud at everyone, so I'm scumreading him. You and Luna reads as classic TvT to me. Ika is ika and he basically has an activity tell that is basically never broken. I see scum movitation in clogging up the thread, and Alchemist is the only one apart from you and Luna, who are townreads, to do that. Plus Alchemist's post 435 almost seems like guilt/fustration that he helped make his buddy replace out.
Apart from that, yeah, mostly gut. (And gut adds to the reads I've mentioned anyway.)

In post 1216, MarioManiac4 wrote:It seems that I am the scum mislynch today, which makes me sad.
VOTE: ika
If this isn't scum then I have no idea what to say. His activity is pretty telling.

Now a question for Mario.

@Mario
If you knew about Ika's activity tell then why was he a strong Townread at 503, and also why did you wait until D3 to bring it up?

Because I had the impression from others and the start-game before everything went sour that ika was active.
I did ask for ika to be vigged on d2 but I had a stronger scumread on Performer but he could've just been really busy IRL from my perspective.

Prolapsed Brain · Post Post #1335 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:47 am

Votecount 4.01

PantherPunt - 1 - Luna Fox

Not Voting: MarioManiac4, Alchemist21, PantherPunt, Diego1487

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2015-10-14 00:27:46)

Luna Fox · Post Post #1336 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:20 am

In post 1332, MarioManiac4 wrote:Actually I have fucked up VCA in every single day!
So yeah!

This VCA doesn't care about your position on the wagon however.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1337 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:58 am

Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1338 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:00 am

In post 1337, Luna Fox wrote:Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

It's because VCA is shit. Scum have the ability to not do EXACTLY WHAT VCA WOULD EXPECT OF THEM.
Goddamnit Luna

Luna Fox · Post Post #1339 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:01 am

In post 1338, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1337, Luna Fox wrote:Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

It's because VCA is shit. Scum have the ability to not do EXACTLY WHAT VCA WOULD EXPECT OF THEM.
Goddamnit Luna

And what is the scum expecting the VCA to do?

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #1340 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:03 am

In post 1339, Luna Fox wrote:
In post 1338, MarioManiac4 wrote:
In post 1337, Luna Fox wrote:Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

It's because VCA is shit. Scum have the ability to not do EXACTLY WHAT VCA WOULD EXPECT OF THEM.
Goddamnit Luna

And what is the scum expecting the VCA to do?

Normal expectations- 2 scum on a town wagon, 1 bus on a scum wagon, etc.
And if you're saying different VCAs analyse differently, most of the VCAs will be wrong.

Luna Fox · Post Post #1341 (ISO) » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:05 am

The expectations of this VCA is scum sheeping and mislynching, am i wrong to expect scum would do this?