Open 662: Fire and Ice (Game Over)

[Aristophanes]

Hey Ice Goon, you gonna take a stance on this or not?
Isn't this like the perfect time to take out scum for you?

I know you mean me, even if you're wrong. I'll take a stance tn, how's that?

Where's the

promised

analytical brain?

It's coming!

I have a busier schedule this year than expected, so I have limited time and multiple games. I'm trying hard not to replace out from any, but that means delayed reading, stances, and analysis.

Once these begin to wrap up I aim to have a 2 game max, with one on the go and the second slit reserved for ones I just can't resist even if I shouldn't.

But for now, please just bare with me!

[Aristophanes]

Hey Ice Goon, you gonna take a stance on this or not?

Ye! What's your case @ havingfitz.

What are you asking for here?

Realeo thinks You were the Ice Mafia Alisae alluded to. I am though.

So...nothing?

[Realeo]

Thank God.

[Realeo]

@akarin

For the sake of the argument, your case at fitz is correct. Who would be the fire mafia partner?

[Realeo]

Hey Ice Goon, you gonna take a stance on this or not?

Ye! What's your case @ havingfitz.

What are you asking for here?

Realeo thinks You were the Ice Mafia Alisae alluded to. I am though.

So...nothing?

Oh. The nk target, please.

[Akarin]

@akarin

For the sake of the argument, your case at fitz is correct. Who would be the fire mafia partner?

I was kind of worried no one was reading anything I had to say about fitz other than fitz himself.

My pick for havingfitz' partner would be Not_Mafia. More on that in a moment, although it's also partly POE. In particular, I was thinking Realo and havingfitz made sense, but looking at the ISO makes me not think so. The vote for Io in #852, then unvoting after ISO in #862 looked suspicious, but then voting for Io again in #886 after she made one post which didn't really seem alignment-related at all, although Realeo says it was POE. Then unvotes in #975 with Io still not having said anything, but then acts like his vote is still on Io before eventually moving to Gamma. I know distancing is a thing, but this seems too weird and poorly-thought-out to me, so I don't think Realeo and havingfitz make a likely team.

[Alisae]

I'd be down to give Not_Mefia rope.
But I wanna give Realeo rope more.

Also Akarin do you like to bully people?

[Akarin]

No, bullying is

NOT

allowed!

The drastic change in reads with very little contribution from Not_Mafia bothers me. Not_Mafia was a distraction when fitz joined the game too. This reads to me like N_M telling fitz overnight that they need to distance themselves more. N_M calls him out a bit on this when he asks fitz why the OMGUS option of the three but they don't really go into it. Fitz has continued to not give real answers to that.

Town - havingfitz
I think is town - Joshz, Realeo
Not sure - Aristophanes
I have my doubts - Kmd4390, Akarin, Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia read could be from the perception I have somehow come to that he is worthless and a distraction. In hindsight I wish I had supported any wagons that may have been on him earlier.

Suspect - BK201, Rory, Snarky........Transcend
Need sorted - Gamma, Realeo, Ari
Don't suspect - Kmd, culted, Not_Mafia, Joshz

Also, Io sheeps a bunch of N_M's votes early on Day 1 and their #107-#110-#113 exchange bothers me a bit. When they disagree on the nn wagon, Io picks out Gamma and BK as the scummy ones on it without mentioning N_M.

[Akarin]

I'm okay with bullying havingfitz, Not_Mafia, and Aristophanes though.

[Akarin]

Also the way Io defends different people is interesting.

VOTE: Not_Mafia
He's incentivizing unproductivity.

Did you just give NM's meta as a scum read?

Realeo is just, can't really think of the word right now drawing blanks, regardless I'm the same way so I don't see it as scummy since I do that just always. Literally the only somewhat scummy thing I can think of him is the somewhat defense of gamma which doesn't even strike me as scummy because I don't see him the type to avoid busing and white knighting as scum.

So Roy is a slight scum because?
Roy's ISO doesn't look bad at all really. Maybe the only case I think you could make is how they formulate reads being very serious which maybe you think town can't be overly serious, but even then that's still not really suspicious enough to make me put them out of the Null category since the rest of their content is still good.

The defense on Not_Mafia is still there, but more dismissive, less thought out.

[Alisae]

Town response.

With that said why not realeo?

[Akarin]

I'm not really town reading Realeo

per se

, but I don't see him as a likely partner with my top scum read or with BK. And actually that exchange with Io I was just talking about reads to me like trying to figure out Io

[Alisae]

Realeo's early game wagon reads to me as if Realeo was scum. If Realeo was town I think that wagon might have been around a lot longer.

[Akarin]

I saw that, not sure I agree. It doesn't seem likely Realeo is Ice Mafia, so if he's FIRE MAFIA, his scum buddy was definitely on his wagon. The Gamma vs. Io thing starts up right after that votecount and that's where the wagon falls apart. Gamma and Transcend started it, and we know they're town. I think Io is scum, but she voted the person voting her for a lame reason, which regardless of alignment doesn't seem like stretching to break up the wagon on a buddy. Not_Mafia jumps onto Gamma too, and yeah that could be opportunistic but it could just as easily be opportunistic of helping build the wagon on Gamma who was voting Io.

The way the wagon falls apart doesn't read like scum trying to save their buddy, it seems like the decisions around that point of the day are based on Gamma vs. Io.

[Alisae]

Ya know...Not_Mafia was on the Realeo wagon...

[Alisae]

Also Realeo was voting Not_mafia.

Connecting dots yet?

[Akarin]

Yeah, I know Not_Mafia was voting Realeo, I just don't think it's much of a case on Realeo.

[Alisae]

hmm...Who replaced Io again?

[Akarin]

havingfitz replaced Io.

[Alisae]

So, Io OMGUS'd the person they voted and You are sorta coming off as OMGUS to fitz who was Io...
IT'S A CHAIN OF OMGUS!

[Akarin]

I'm not OMGUSing fitz.

1. He mentions after hammering Transcend that he'd just been in a game where Transcend self-hammers as town. Transcend threatened to do that here, fitz unvoted his previous vote, thought about it overnight, then put Transcend to L-1 when he was threatening to self-hammer if put at L-1. Then fitz acts all surprised and shocked and angry when Transcend self-hammers. Then fitz denies that my quotes of this show any such thing. I think if he were as concerned with town's winning chances as he makes out, he wouldn't have put Transcend at L-1 there.

2. Pretty circumstantial, but Io really wanted to lynch BK and talked about how BK was too good as scum and shouldn't live and all that, and then fitz suspected BK really strongly immediately after replacing in. I'm kind of thinking this is an opinion they discussed in their private topic, given that Fire Mafia NK'd BK later.

3.

VOTE: BK

Yeah he's fairly obvious Mafia now especially considering he is now saying he was the night kill.

[Akarin]

If we lynch Not_mafia, do you think Aristophanes will sort one of them out for us overnight?

[Alisae]

Maybe...
And I never said you were, I said you were coming off as OMGUS...
But um...
Choo Choo?
VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Akarin]

Sure, this is now officially the cutest wagon
VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Akarin]

Want to join us fitz? Realeo?