Open 669 - Nightless Vengeful Mayhem [Game Over]

[Revan]

Slight scum read on Lucca as a response to his response to Hawks death, being 'wtf' and 'random' which seems like a dismissal of an attempt to consider motivation behind the kill.

Why are you applying a double standard to lucca & I? I'm also not considering motivation behind the kill.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Slight scum read on Lucca as a response to his response to Hawks death, being 'wtf' and 'random' which seems like a dismissal of an attempt to consider motivation behind the kill.

Why are you applying a double standard to lucca & I? I'm also not considering motivation behind the kill.

Considering you are Super's only listed scum read I'm not sure you can say that there is a double standard in play even if he didn't directly mention you ...

[Revan]

Slight scum read on Lucca as a response to his response to Hawks death, being 'wtf' and 'random' which seems like a dismissal of an attempt to consider motivation behind the kill.

Why are you applying a double standard to lucca & I? I'm also not considering motivation behind the kill.

Considering you are Super's only listed scum read I'm not sure you can say that there is a double standard in play even if he didn't directly mention you ...

If he was actually town, he would mention me.

[lucca261]

Page 15:

@UD 351, can you tell me aswell what you are seeing? I don't like your interactions with Sesq.

Mozamis is looking townier and townier. His 358 looks to me like frustrated town.

I don't think Mozamis is bussing Sesq. I could see UD doing it.

362, hey, Sesq, can you explain your read on Superhans?

Look at Superhans posts. This is scum. His push on Revan is weird. And probably he's trying to setup me as tomorrow's lynch.

Yes, Magna is town. He could be scum hiding with highly active posts? Yes. But for now, I'm happier with lynching between {sesq, UD and Super}

Page 16:

375 OK, Friend, you managed to skate under the radar and is not the lynch for today. Can you contribute?

@doom, who is your day 2 lynch? And why the lining up lynches?

oh, it's sesq. ok.

wait, Sesq, did you really just say you were trying to make people vote Friend just to save yourself? are you trying to get lynched?

the thing that makes me pause about Sesq lynch is that there is zero resistance. I think, at least for the first lynch, scum wouldn't try to bus.

yeah, think that Fitz is town. We disagree about some stuff, but he seems to be trying to look for scum. I don't think that Revan is scum, but his reasons for thinking that are the best so far.

don't like that Superhans is trying to softly stop the Sesq lynch.

397, several players did this. you didn't react to death at all. were you concerned that people would scumread you because of your reaction?

sesq is trying now?

[lucca261]

Page 17:

402, look at this post. How do you know that other people reads are genuine? Why aren't you voting me? Half of your posts are about me.

407, don't you think that Magna could be doing the same thing?

Magna is town.

Sesq posting is really weird. One minute, she seems to be defeated. Then, she defends herself crazily. It's inconsistent. On my opinion, it's flailing frustrated scum.

@sesq, and haven't you said that you never thought that FC was scum, and was only waiting to Friend's wagon to go L-1 to get off of it?

yes, Sesq is scum.

@doom, shouldn't you be voting sesq?

@Magna, what do you think of Superhans? I think that Friend is definitely a option, but I'm more interested on Super or Sesq?

doom, stop lining up lynches.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, what do you think of Superhans? I think that Friend is definitely a option, but I'm more interested on Super or Sesq?

Catch-up to the present and if you don't think these questions are fully answered I'll elaborate.

[lucca261]

My quick readslist. Feel free to ask:

TOWN
--- Wgeurts
--- Magna
--- Revan
--- Mozamis
--- Fitz
--- Doom
--- Friend
--- UD
--- Sesq
--- Superhans
SCUM

[lucca261]

didn't even realize there was a page 18. will continue catching up.

[doomfeathers]

327 what does this even mean?

Hm. Nullscumreading Superhans.

Only null, as it is a bit usual in mafia for deaths to occur.

Vote: Karnos

I explained my reasons in post 331. (Woo, I know how to use that tag now!)

@doom, who is your day 2 lynch? And why the lining up lynches?

oh, it's sesq. ok.

Yeah, I like to line up lynches. It makes me feel like my plans are made and my ducks are in a row. But if good reason appears, my lined lynches can be changed.

don't like that Superhans is trying to softly stop the Sesq lynch.

Quoted for truth.

@doom, shouldn't you be voting sesq?

Sesq is definitely scum, but Magna has made a strong case that she's trying to draw attention away from Friend Computer, so FC is likely the shooter. I had scumread FC as well.

[lucca261]

Page 18

:

Oh, I know what you are trying to say. I think it's possible that Sesq and FC are scum buddies and Sesq was actively trying to get lynched to take the pressure off of FC.

I don't know, though, if they would do it. I mean, even if their possible plan works and Sesq was lynched, and revealed as scum. Don't you think FC would just get lynched the next day? I don't think scum would do this. Maybe Sesq and FC would, but I don't know.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My quick readslist. Feel free to ask:

TOWN
--- Wgeurts
--- Magna
--- Revan
--- Mozamis
--- Fitz
--- Doom
--- Friend
--- UD
--- Sesq
--- Superhans
SCUM

When you have the time can you make an organized case for UD as scum please?

I can't say that I've twigged to it and I think seeing someone lay out in a single place why they think that would be good for me to read and review.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh, I know what you are trying to say. I think it's possible that Sesq and FC are scum buddies and Sesq was actively trying to get lynched to take the pressure off of FC.

I don't know, though, if they would do it. I mean, even if their possible plan works and Sesq was lynched, and revealed as scum. Don't you think FC would just get lynched the next day? I don't think scum would do this. Maybe Sesq and FC would, but I don't know.

The reason why that would happen is to preserve the Mafia Daykiller til Day 2 to maximize the scum kills. To explain in more detail -

This game like most non-standard set-ups runs on lynches. Best case scenario scum have two kills and if they manage a mislynch Day 1 potentially another Townie dead via a mis-aimed Vengekill.

12 to start. Scum win at 3-3. So scum need 6 Town deaths to achieve a perfect win. Best case would be 2 daykills, a Day 1 mislynch and mis-Venge leaving scum to need two more mislynches (Day 3 at the earliest).

Now worst case beginning of game scenario is a Day 1 lynch on the Scum Dayvig. Assuming they used the Day 1 shot that would leave a 2-8 scenario going into Day 2. Scum would need to survive 6 straight lynches to win in a 2-2 victory.

So even at the cost of throwing a Goon to the wolves Day 1 to keep the Dayvig alive to Day 2 scum is in a (slightly) better spot by removing one of the needed lynches they need to dodge and removing the person they perceive as the most unlynchable Townie. It's not a great scenario for scum if they misplay Day 1 too much but it is better than having the Dayvig lynched Day 1.

I can't really see any motive for Sesq to go the "Woe is me, I'll self-vote if I get to L-1" route as Town. As earlier stated Town Sesq would be making it harder for herself to pick out scum pushing her mislych by self-voting. And the only motive I can see for Sesq going that route with literally one vote is to preserve a Daykiller Partner til Day 2. And Friend is the only player that fits that profile.

I mean it is not out of the question for it to be a Reverse Psychology gambit with Sesq Daykiller and FC Goon but the better route to have taken there is for Sesq to continue to bus the hell out of FC for Town credit. And she did exactly the opposite. Even with new players I don't like to assume bad play as new does not mean bad.

[Sesq]

Page 11:

@sesq, what do you mean when you that you would jump off Friend's wagon when he is L-1? If you're on his wagon, you should think that he is scum. If you are waiting to get off the wagon, it's blatantly a scum move. And you are saying it out loud.

Usually I don't like to be on L-1 wagons unless I'm dead sure they're scum (such as with Revan). I'm not entirely sure on FC. He's basically done a few joke posts and has been entirely absent. Neglect yes, but not necessarily scum. Usually the opposite, in my experience. I don't want to risk lynching someone who may be town.

'another', when was the first time?

The first time was Sesq going into "Woe is me I am getting lynched today" mode with zero to 1 votes when FC had 4 or 5 ...

Don't pretend that hasn't been made abundantly clear.

This is because I forgot about the vote reset and assumed I had 5 (4 from pre-dk and the one after).

@sesq, what do you think of Fitz catchup post?

I have no opinion on it.

362, hey, Sesq, can you explain your read on Superhans?

I don't really have a read on him. I put him there because I usually put people I don't know about in null-town, and after looking over his recent stuff - yeah, total null.

(I'm not putting in full quotes from now on it's too tedious)

But lucca said,

"@sesq, and haven't you said that you never thought that FC was scum, and was only waiting to Friend's wagon to go L-1 to get off of it?"

HAHAHAHAHAAAA I always have said I thought FC was scum, until this very post where I'm kinda like, eh, maybe?

"the thing that makes me pause about Sesq lynch is that there is zero resistance."

Shouldn't that make everyone pause?

Seriously.

There is zero resistance.

[doomfeathers]

Zero resistance to a lynch is scummy. Also, aren't you resisting by pointing that out?

[Sesq]

Zero resistance to a lynch is scummy. Also, aren't you resisting by pointing that out?

No, it's actually more of a town tell. If scum has a large wagon, other scum will want to stop them. This hasn't happened at all.

And of course I'm resisting my own wagon, anyone would, town, scum, cult, sk, anyone (except for jester, if that's on mafiascum.)

[doomfeathers]

I thought you meant from yourself. Superhans has, in fact, been resisting your lynch. I think he's your partner.

[Sesq]

I thought you meant from yourself. Superhans has, in fact, been resisting your lynch. I think he's your partner.

It could be a gambit of some sorts. He might be trying to back me so it looks like I have viable partners (and more reason to lynch), and then I flip town and those associations are dropped.

[lucca261]

Yeah. I don't know what I was saying. He definitely have resistance. From a lot of players, actually.

@sesq, strange that you had no opinion on Fitz catchup. He had the same reaction I had to Hawk's death. Shouldn't you be scumreading him?

---

answering to magna on another post

[Sesq]

Yeah. I don't know what I was saying. He definitely have resistance. From a lot of players, actually.

@sesq, strange that you had no opinion on Fitz catchup. He had the same reaction I had to Hawk's death. Shouldn't you be scumreading him?

---

answering to magna on another post

You two have very similar play, he's just less active. I'd put both of you at null, slight scum lean (kinda gut), with fitz a bit more scumlean than you.

[lucca261]

My quick readslist. Feel free to ask:

TOWN
--- Wgeurts
--- Magna
--- Revan
--- Mozamis
--- Fitz
--- Doom
--- Friend
--- UD
--- Sesq
--- Superhans
SCUM

When you have the time can you make an organized case for UD as scum please?

I can't say that I've twigged to it and I think seeing someone lay out in a single place why they think that would be good for me to read and review.

My problem with UD is that their thought progression doesn't seem to be natural. Maybe it's the Hydra, but I don't think so.

I didn't like their scumread-townread-scumread on Revan, specially when they go asking around other people about their scumread on Revan, but themselves don't give their opinion. I think it's scummy, and that he's testing the waters.

Their interaction with Sesq is weird as well, and on all of their interactions seems that UD is preparing for an unvote on him.

Also, a lot of his posts are just playstyle/theory arguments, and there is not a lot of content.

----

For your other post, I guess it makes more sense now. I can see it happening, and I'll probably end the day voting Friend. The point is, I'll reread this now, but I don't think that Sesq was in enough pressure that only him and Friend would be the only options. I think scum could've easily pushed for a mislynch, on this situation.

[havingfitz]

"the thing that makes me pause about Sesq lynch is that there is zero resistance."

Shouldn't that make everyone pause?

Seriously.

There is zero resistance.

I wouldn't say zero resistence....

I think you're suffering from tunnel vision Doomfeather, put Sesqs behaviour into perspective.

lynching FC would be a much much better option that lynching Sesq based on the type of content that Sesq produces.

Currently nulltownreading Sesq and Magna.

Town Lean: Sesq

I'm willing to lean town on sesq.

[Ultimate Despair]

I don't agree with this theory that the DK was a reaction to panic. I agree that there was definite intent behind the Hawk kill as the shots were valuable, but it is early D1, and it seems like an unbelievably audacious gambit that the death of Hawk would somehow throw the kill off of the FC wagon. Why would FC or Sesq try and kill Hawk so early in the day when they still have plenty of time to shift the pressure off of themselves without wasting a DK?

Well, if it didn't make much sense for them to do it, and it didn't make much sense for anyone else to do it, then "panic" seems like an appropriate explanation.

Come to think of it, we may want to try to lynch the day goon today so he can't use his second kill. Do we have any indicators of who might be not only scum but also the killer?

not necessarily in a scummy sense, but that lack of thread awareness, given that it's been a frequent point of discussion, is kind of annoying

But let's not lynch until near end of day; we want to catch as many as possible. It'd probably be good to avoid L-1 until then, too, to avoid wayward hammerers, especially since Sesq is offering to self-hammer

Just in case this is just you not really understanding, which since you're relatively new I'll just guess to be the case, taking too much time is anti-town as well as a stalled game state induces apathy and laziness. Take all the time you need, not all the time you have.

UD 210
Why do you think this? With all his explanation only "cleared" one player, me. Doom's content could be easily faked.

His entire content on page 8 is consistent with "hey I think this timing thing is super important and now I'm gonna go nuts on investigating it". It could THEORETICALLY be faked, but I'll solidly disagree that it could EASILY be faked. Thus "probtown"

UD 211
This post got me thinking.
There is a possibility that experienced scum did a "random" kill on purpose, to implicate the possibility of a newbie scumteam, that would be wrong?

Clearly there's that possibility. But as I noted, what's the damn point? If FC and Sesq were just scummy lynchbait town, then it doesn't seem super likely that they'd easily bail themselves out, and even if somehow they did, then it's hardly unreasonable to think that Hawk could have been someone to eventually go under the gun instead. To take a massively sub-optimal kill shot (both in terms of the target and in terms of the timing) as part of a wacky WIFOM scheme just to frame people who were probably gonna go down anyway seems like an instance of scum out-thinking themselves more than anything else.
In a world in which FC/Sesq are both town, there's a very narrow band of reasons why shooting in that spot makes much of any sense, and in few of those worlds would scum just decide that Hawk is who they want to spend one of their limited kill shots on. Like, put yourself in the shoes of theoretical scum where FC/Sesq are both town. Would YOU take that shot at that point in time? Would you consider it to be a reasonably sensible shot to take?

Don't like UD trying to put things on Revan's mouth. I don't know why they're saying that the only conclusion to make is that Revan finds either Friend or Sesq town. But, also, there wouldn't be any scum goal to do this.

Read 261 more carefully. Revan's argument was that Dk analysis sends us down the wrong track. Since the track we were on from it was to suspect FC/Sesq, I then pushed him on his reasoning, since if we were on the wrong track, then it meant that he town-read at least one of them (otherwise we were not in fact on the wrong track). That's why I asked the question. Not sure at all what words I put in his mouth either, whether in that post or any other.

Hey, UD, could you clarify which head thinks that Revan is scummy? It would be easier to read your posts.

It's M (Mukuro). The one who's been pushing on him. Though I'm more on the nullscum side than obvscum on him at this point. I think other hydra head is in the ballpark of my opinion at this point as well (see 338) but she can answer for herself if you think it's important.

Hey, UD, could you clarify which head thinks that Revan is scummy? It would be easier to read your posts.
Yeah, Revan is town. He is brutally honest, and is not concerned with others view on him.

Lucca, why did you make this read, which reads basically like a sheep of Junko's 154, while having previously suggesting that such a conclusion was necessarily meta-dependent on our end?

@UD 351, can you tell me aswell what you are seeing? I don't like your interactions with Sesq.

I'm back-burnering a meaningful Revan read for a bit, in part because I want to see some flip associations and potentially get into VCA and the like (of which there is precisely zero point to engaging in on day 1), and see if I can shed some light on the slot that way. I'm basically null-scum on him, but both hydra heads have bounced around on that read a bit (Junko more than I tbh).
What about our interactions with Sesq do you not like? I looked around your ISO and didn't really see what you were getting at there.

"the thing that makes me pause about Sesq lynch is that there is zero resistance."
Shouldn't that make everyone pause?
Seriously.
There is zero resistance.

In a world where scum is FC/Sesq/x, then I feel reasonably confident that buddy #3 would be EXTREMELY concerned about sticking his neck out to save one or both of you. so "lack of resistance" is a relatively poor argument. Moreover, if it turns out that just one of you is scum, then there is in fact plausible resistance, it's just much subtler in terms of preference for one scumspect over another. And that is ignoring the other push on Revan, which has emerged as at least a theoretical extra counter-wagon.

My problem with UD is that their thought progression doesn't seem to be natural. Maybe it's the Hydra, but I don't think so.
I didn't like their scumread-townread-scumread on Revan, specially when they go asking around other people about their scumread on Revan, but themselves don't give their opinion. I think it's scummy, and that he's testing the waters.
Their interaction with Sesq is weird as well, and on all of their interactions seems that UD is preparing for an unvote on him.
Also, a lot of his posts are just playstyle/theory arguments, and there is not a lot of content.

Well, we've been somewhat transparently open to lynching either FC or Sesq, so in that sense we've certainly been "preparing" for a potential move. I also have literally no idea what you're talking about when you say

a lot of his posts are just playstyle/theory arguments, and there is not a lot of content

. I don't know if you're confusing "reading the game state and known scum actions" with "theory", or if there's some other entirely different point you're trying to make.
It's also odd that you're talking about our thought process being unnatural without being able to cite specific examples of why you think that to be the case. Since this seems to be a point you care about, please illustrate and explain it.

-M

PS @mod: VC please

[havingfitz]

Unofficial VC by my count:
Friend has 4 votes (L-2) - havingfitz, Magna, doomfeathers, wgeurts
Revan has 2 votes - Superhans, Sesq
Superhans has 2 votes - lucca, Revan
Sesq has 2 votes - UD, mozamis

Votes aren't listed in the order they were made.

[karnos]

Vote Count 1.7

Friend Computer

(4/6)

- wgeurts, magnaofillusion, havingfitz, doomfeathers,

Superhans

(2/6)

- revan, lucca261

Sesq

(2/6)

- mozamis, ultimate despair

Revan

(1/6)

- superhans, sesq

(expired on 2017-01-27 08:45:01) until deadline.
With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Lucca

– Thank you for 469. I do a re-read based on what you have said there.

--

This is because I forgot about the vote reset and assumed I had 5 (4 from pre-dk and the one after).

This doesn’t explain why you claimed you would self-vote if you were Town.

No, it's actually more of a town tell. If scum has a large wagon, other scum will want to stop them. This hasn't happened at all.

If by some circumstance you aren’t Mafia I suggest you go to the Wiki and look up “bussing” because this is all sorts of incorrect.

Usually I don't like to be on L-1 wagons unless I'm dead sure they're scum (such as with Revan).

I'm not entirely sure on FC. He's basically done a few joke posts and has been entirely absent. Neglect yes, but not necessarily scum. Usually the opposite, in my experience.

I don't want to risk lynching someone who may be town.

This is also “Not Town” posting.

Allow me to direct you to the bolded and then compare with previous comments she has made –

Friend Computer - Has done much less than I and yet has no votes. This is idiocy.

So the clear inference is that FC not having votes for doing “less” than Sesq is idiocy which means he should have votes (ie that behavior is suspicious). Directly conflicts with the above where Sesq says “My experience is that those that neglect the thread are more likely Town”.

NULLSCUM:
lucca261 (it's all gut, idk)
Friend Computer

SCUM:
Hawk
Mozamis

I should point out that FC is kind of "too little to post", but I think it's enough for placement.

Again – supposedly what FC has posted is “enough to Null-scum read FC”. Yet now the narrative on FC has changed 180 degrees.

I’d also like to point out that Sesq’s reasoning for voteing FC? See 188.

All of these posts directly conflict with the story that Sesq is trying to sell on FC. When you see Cognitive Dissonance on this scale it is usually scum.