Open 779: Pick Your Power X/Y Game Over!

[Farkset]

VOTE: Don Corleone

[Farkset]

The more i play this game, the more i think that town lying or town wanting to keep secrets is a cancer against town victory. I mean, i understand that people want to have fun with their information but it needs to be outed when it's useful, keeping it to your death is not going to help town win, it only helps your ego feel satisfied.

We should not lynch outside of don/dunn because there is no reason to do so, this 1v1 makes neither of them town, the VCA is terrible against both. I'm much more inclined to believe dunn is the true cop, but it doesn't have to be a town cop - that's a theory i want to test later - whereas doncorleone has done nothing towny so far.

The jailkeeper should out because it helps us win. It does not need to say who he's going to block. It doesn't even need to say he's jailkeeper or tracker, just that there is a person occupying that slot which puts his life on the line on the account of saving the cop. Scum cannot kill everyone in a single night.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

The cop must not be blocked.

-F

[Farkset]

Town wouldn't pick RB over doctor. At least i want to hope so. Therefore it's pointless to have doc/rb claim, if they're town they shouldn't claim, if they're scum they won't.

Anyways, do you guys have experience with doncorleone or dunn to say that this kind of play is town indicative for them? Because to be honest i don't, and their VC is really bad. I'd rather have DC removed today, avoid wifom and go for a partial mech/partial read-based progression than let both of them live and regret it later. Pursuing a pure read-based lynch in this gamestate is a bad strategy imo and it leaves more questions unanswered than we have now.

Datisi could be bussing scum but it's nowhere near my best bet, even when considering outside of the cops.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

But whatever, I'd probably need to out today regardless; I checked JacksonVirgo, he's town

So what was the point of waiting with this?
~ker

[Farkset]

Do you think that if scum had a PR and a Goon remaining, the Goon would attack? I believe so

well yea? why not?
~ker

[Farkset]

So i've been talking with Kerset and reviewing some ISOs. Posting conclusions again:

1) CSF is very, very likely town. Posts 901 and 1094 wouldn't come from aldus partners imo, also i doubt that scum would hardbus aldus as early as 574580 when there were plenty of chances to actually save him, i.e. by attacking slots that CSF had good progression on, like almidia.

2) As i said, JV is still likely town regardless of cop alignment

3) Skitter might have been overconfident on aldus, yeah... but her reads also make sense as town so i'm fine not touching her until way later.

4) I still think that Almidia is town by virtue of his wagon being born as a mean to save aldus.

5) I still disagree about DrDrew being town by claim, but i realize that i am largely a minority so i'm not going to push there any further

^^^ This is currently my townbloc. ^^^ I wouldn't touch dunnstral today, for reasons i have already talked about in my latest post.

I'd still much rather lynch doncorleone today. I don't want him anywhere near lylo. However, with the purpose of cooperating with town if we don't want to go there, i can compromise on {Iconeum, Datisi, DoctorPepper} in that respective order of preference, based on VC 1064 and my own reads.

I like numbered lists in this game, i hope my posts are readable enough.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

I'd still much rather lynch doncorleone today. I don't want him anywhere near lylo.

ok
dc is scum fake-claiming cop ... what does he think the real cop is going to do ... not check him? is he just gambling from like p2 that there isn't a cop?

walk me through what scum!dc is thinking all game

I thought DC claim was a meme until he offered a inno on CSF. That was the moment when i stopped believing it was a meme a considered DC as a true cop because town lying about innos should never happen if you actually care about winning the game.

As an obvious (since DC isn't a true cop) consequence of that statement, Dunnstral counterclaimed, then DC retracted the claim. As a result, now we have an outed cop and no more info than we had before. This is a perfect situation for a scum gambit if they couldn't get their hands on the good roles - maybe they didn't expect to lose one of their own d1 and doncorleone wanted to bait a counterclaim assuming that only he would fall, but once the cogs started running they had to continue with the plan regardless of d1 result.

It's not just a mech or policy lynch though, doncorleone played antitown + has a terrible vote progression + why wasn't he killed n1? Unfortunately this is also true for dunn, except that dunn would have never been killed n1

Anyways, now DC will never be nk'ed, so we will meet in lylo unless we win earlier, which is not a bet i am willing to make. DC must be removed today, Dunn must be protected without getting blocked (hence why the jailkeeper should claim now) and offer results each day.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

The slot should claim. If they kill him, you are left alive, which is a positive outcome for the town. If you die, we will know that the doc/rb slot is scum.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

The slot should claim. If they kill him, you are left alive, which is a positive outcome for the town. If you die, we will know that the doc/rb slot is scum.

doesn't saying "if there's a town JK don't be on dunn tonight" yield the same results without outing the slot?

Assume this ^

What happens tomorrow if dunn claims blocked?

-F

[Farkset]

then we know at least one of the doc/rb and jk/tracker slots are scum?

It's strictly less info than what we would and should have

counterpoint: jk/tracker slot claims today, neither dunn nor they die, dunn claims blocked. do we just mindlessly lynch the jk/track claim tomorrow? i still don't see how them claiming today helps us.

The jk/tracker will have to speak up tomorrow if he is alive, otherwise yes he's lynched

Mafia jailkeeper has no incentive to out in the first place

Which is one more reason to force him to out today

I mean... i don't think we have anything to lose by outing the jailkeeper today, that's the main point. We only gain more information and control over night actions. It would not be the same with doc/rb or any other role, this is why i am insisting on that specific role to claim, as opposed to any other role (note: role != player). That's what i'm suggesting to do. If you are against it, fine, but keeping it secret at this point is suboptimal. Arguments and counterarguments have been presented, now it's up to the jailkeeper. We can move on.

-Farkran

pedit: we don't, and in that case we don't care

[Farkset]

The slot should claim. If they kill him, you are left alive, which is a positive outcome for the town.

If you die, we will know that the doc/rb slot is scum.

-Farkran

can you just explain this conclusion again?

Doc should always heal dunn tonight

I assume that the slot is filled and that town wouldn't pick rb over doc

Therefore, dunn dies = the doc/rb slot is scum

-F

[Farkset]

also @fark i think you missed it before, why is ico close to the top of your lynchlist?

I disliked the slot in d1, and bad wagonomics

-F

[Farkset]

VOTE: doctorpepper

-F

[Farkset]

I kinda want to believe that scum!pepper wouldn't insist on a baseless push like that and would probably join on a better quest to advance his wincon

Before going to that step though, drpepper can you scumcase me again? I forgot why you were scumreading me in the first place

-Farkran

[Farkset]

Why are we not lynching dunn?

How confident are you that this fakeclaim came from scum?
~ker

[Farkset]

I kinda want to believe that scum!pepper wouldn't insist on a baseless push like that and would probably join on a better quest to advance his wincon

Before going to that step though, drpepper can you scumcase me again? I forgot why you were scumreading me in the first place

-Farkran

TBH it may be conf bias on my part.

But I am not entirely convinced you didn't distance Aldus and had to push with the lynch.

Plus, I feel like you've been shading my slot and I inherently dislike that. Your day 1 shade on my hammer was bad and calling me town in Day 2 start after that felt like you were washing your hands.

Where did i distance aldus? In my memory i have been the main pusher of aldus, or at least immediately after melody talked to me, and insisted on going there up to 2 hours before deadline when i changed my mind about it and almost shut the wagon off - hence why i also called your hammer poor. The point, however, is that i didn't try to shut it off when it would have mattered, i.e. when melody was actually popular or when the wagon on almidia was formed.

I'm not confident that you are scum, but i dislike how you are not engaging with the gamestate and your only answer when prodded for content is "lynch fark". The choice to push towards my direction seems unfit for a scum agenda, but it's also a very lazy push from your side that could justify your lack of reads.

Plus, if you strongly believe DonC did an anti town play and would reach lylo, shouldn't you want this resolved with a lynch?

I am much more satisfied with a DC lynch though, i think this is the correct choice for today. Glad to see that interest is building up.

VOTE: DonCorleone

-Farkran

[Farkset]

dunn i think you should check in {nm/dc} tonight

I see checking DC as a waste of time (because he needs to be lynched anyways, if not today, soon enough) and a bad suggestion given the plausible circumstances, i countersuggest {Iconeum, DoctorPepper, N_M} instead.

doc if they exist ought to be on dunn
if there happens to be a town watcher who didn't use their shot being on dunn would be a good idea too

100% agreed

-Farkran

[Farkset]

@pepper

But do you have any significant read on anyone else?

Could you post a readlist/thoughts summary or something?

-F

[Farkset]

I think the latest exchange is towny for Datisi, and it looks genuine disalignment vs pepper. TvT (60% confidence) or TvS (40%), never SvS

-Farkran

[Farkset]

If we want to talk about numerology in this setup though, i don't think that, with this specific playerlist, picking the same numbers would be outside of the scumrange of any team. About the 2's i do believe that almidia is town by virtue of being a counterwagon to aldus, but skitter... eh. Keep in mind my words about skitter if she gets to lylo.

The 1's are also not hard disaligned from my pov, i find it hard that dunn/don, with their own vote progression, would rather not lynch themselves right now. At least dunn should want to lynch don imo, maybe i'm wrong in how they approach to this game but i seriously think that at least 1 scum is in there. Ico vs donc sounds a much more believable disalignment, so once again TvT or TvS there. Datisi is... kind of a mystery, when i think about it there's a significant amount of independent thought from a slot that claims to be completely demotivated. I just have a disalignment read in dat vs pepper.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

I mean it's quite evident that pepper is genuinely not paying close attention to this game (i.e. when he puts JV in the null pool). Is that particularly scummy from him? Does scum!pepper insist on a tunnel against me because "i misrepped", against any other progression read? I don't know - the scummy part would be being lazy with their reads, but when i look at that readlist i see that it's consistently lazy, not agenda based

-F

[Farkset]

@mod: It's also Farkset, not Farkran.

I DEMAND EQUAL REPRESENTATION FOR KERSET.

If he gets lynched i still get to stay in game
~ker

[Farkset]

do you as town sheep your scumread onto someone you find null? do you have a PoE solve of 2 when you have 5 nulls in a game where's 2 scum and 10 town alive?

pedit: @fark

Eh, no, i wouldn't. But pepper isn't me. I have no experience with scum!pepper, but in my mind his player profile could actually do that. I would say my opinion of him will be postponed to tomorrow.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

I thought brass's vote on Aldus was prob town just based on how hard that Aldus wagon stalled at 4-5 votes

Not solid but Id rather not vote there today

I don't believe the 5 ppl on my wagon at one point are all town

DonCorleone, Dunnstral, JacksonVirgo, Iconeum, DoctorPepper

Dunn is cop, jackson is cleared.
If we don't want to lynch DC, we should do one of Ico/Pepper

Absolutely yes.

-Farkran

[Farkset]

Unless they are confident the Doctor is not there (aka scum took it) and expected mafia not to be lynched D1 to sacrifice themselves to kill the Cop.

this is p much the only way i think that one of the claims might be scum,

if scum took the doc/rb role

ok i'm not vibing dc
i like my doc pepper vote
datisi finally looking a bit townier
i no longer townread ico. i'm slightly worried about how he keeps changing his stances to match mine

dunn getting rb'd is a scumclaim

if there's a doc and they aren't on dunn that's also a scumclaim
watcher if they have a shot ideally i guess ought to be on dunn but i wouldn't like consider it a scumclaim for them not to be

Uhm...

-Farkran

[Farkset]

Sorry i was trying to understand the bolded connection

Why blocked!dunn is a scumclaim if scum got the rb role?

-F

[Farkset]

Yes that clears it, thanks

-F

[Farkset]

24h to deadline and i see we're consolidating on DC or pepper

Any objections against our choice being within those two? If there are, please speak up, otherwise take a stance between the two and explain why

@everyone

-F

[Farkset]

I am not very convinced about DC lynch. I don't see who scum!him would intent to keep it in long run as he had to get cc at some point. He could intend stay in void, in which he makes serious claim if there is no cop and keeps this as a joke in case of cc but this knowledge is useless as he could gain from picking cop in first place.
Another thing is the fact that he didn't try to fight cop, which seems to come more likely from scum.
~ker

[Farkset]

I also agree that at this point donc and pepper are disaligned

-F

[Farkset]

fark, do you use "disaligned" to mean "not the same alignment" or "not scum together"?

I mean that they do not know to be in a team together

TvT is an example of disalignment (unless you are masons, for instance)

-F

[Farkset]

My position towards you DC is that, once you have faked a inno result, your gambit stopped being protown. I never believed you were a true cop until that precise moment. That action is the reason why you have been counterclaimed, why we are in this situation right now, and why you shouldn't survive the day in my opinion.

If you look at your own 1v1 against dunn in the very early d1, in retrospect it doesn't look towny at all - if you are not a cop, you should realize that the true cop might pick your claim up, because your pov is unique in terms of knowledge of what you should be looking for: a cop crumb aimed at you. I only realized it

after

rereading with added knowledge

which you already had

, and that is one of the reasons why you should be the lynch today.

The other reason, independent of the claim, is that your vote progression, in hindsight of the flip, is quite bad and you should admit that yourself. Look at the VC 1.04 to 1.09 by ISOing the mod. This is also true for dunnstral though, but he will have to survive and produce results each day to make up for it, whereas you declared you cannot and you will never be nk'ed for the sake of wifom.

To be honest i think you should give up and embrace your lynch today, while at the same time giving your thoughts (which you did) about who is scum on your wagon. A green flip would *strongly* suggest to look into pepper/ico, a red flip kinda helps their position a lot rn. Your mileage may vary on my own slot, but i don't particularly care about dying, the only piece of valuable information i have will be easily identified tomorrow

-Farkran

pedit: yeah i still think the jailkeeper slot should claim, but they clearly disagree with my suggestion and unfortunately it's not particularly AI if the consensus is with them. This will be postgame discussion, not interested in pursuing it further rn

[Farkset]

Don you seems to be quite afraid of being lynched. Do you have personal detestation for it?
~ker

[Farkset]

Not doing n_m

[Farkset]

Not doing n_m

-Farkran

[Farkset]

If you don't want to lynch a power then why do you vote not_mafia? He is high picker so he is obviously going to have even better role then pepper.
~ker

[Farkset]

My position towards you DC is that, once you have faked a inno result, your gambit stopped being protown. I never believed you were a true cop until that precise moment. That action is the reason why you have been counterclaimed, why we are in this situation right now, and why you shouldn't survive the day in my opinion.

If you look at your own 1v1 against dunn in the very early d1, in retrospect it doesn't look towny at all - if you are not a cop, you should realize that the true cop might pick your claim up, because your pov is unique in terms of knowledge of what you should be looking for: a cop crumb aimed at you. I only realized it

after

rereading with added knowledge

which you already had

, and that is one of the reasons why you should be the lynch today.

The other reason, independent of the claim, is that your vote progression, in hindsight of the flip, is quite bad and you should admit that yourself. Look at the VC 1.04 to 1.09 by ISOing the mod. This is also true for dunnstral though, but he will have to survive and produce results each day to make up for it, whereas you declared you cannot and you will never be nk'ed for the sake of wifom.

To be honest i think you should give up and embrace your lynch today, while at the same time giving your thoughts (which you did) about who is scum on your wagon. A green flip would *strongly* suggest to look into pepper/ico, a red flip kinda helps their position a lot rn. Your mileage may vary on my own slot, but i don't particularly care about dying, the only piece of valuable information i have will be easily identified tomorrow

-Farkran

pedit: yeah i still think the jailkeeper slot should claim, but they clearly disagree with my suggestion and unfortunately it's not particularly AI if the consensus is with them. This will be postgame discussion, not interested in pursuing it further rn

I want to reiterate that i'm still here with my thought process, i haven't seen anything worthy of changing my mind in the recent pages. If anything, DC switching onto n_m who is off his wagon looks very poor from town!DC pov who is getting wagoned

-Farkran

[Farkset]

@kerset, would you lynch Iconeum?

Possibly but your effort to survive as vanilla is even more concerning.
~ker

[Farkset]

Not doing n_m

Is it just because of the vote he left on aldu when aldu wagon was stalling?

[/quote]
He didn't switch to you when your wagon was popular + i think that slot will solve itself soon

-Farkran

[Farkset]

I have to say it is hard for me to believe that DC is vanilla townie. I might look silly after flip but his behavior just doesn't match what i would expect from VT in todays situation.
~ker

[Farkset]

I wasn't even on the correct account lol

Sorry, i refreshed the page right when you were posting ~~~ and i couldn't resist

Also i thought don was hammered

-F

[Farkset]

Wait why isn't my vote on donc?

I am fairly sure i voted him, did kerset unvpte?

[Farkset]

I kinda want to believe that scum!pepper wouldn't insist on a baseless push like that and would probably join on a better quest to advance his wincon

Before going to that step though, drpepper can you scumcase me again? I forgot why you were scumreading me in the first place

-Farkran

TBH it may be conf bias on my part.

But I am not entirely convinced you didn't distance Aldus and had to push with the lynch.

Plus, I feel like you've been shading my slot and I inherently dislike that. Your day 1 shade on my hammer was bad and calling me town in Day 2 start after that felt like you were washing your hands.

Where did i distance aldus? In my memory i have been the main pusher of aldus, or at least immediately after melody talked to me, and insisted on going there up to 2 hours before deadline when i changed my mind about it and almost shut the wagon off - hence why i also called your hammer poor. The point, however, is that i didn't try to shut it off when it would have mattered, i.e. when melody was actually popular or when the wagon on almidia was formed.

I'm not confident that you are scum, but i dislike how you are not engaging with the gamestate and your only answer when prodded for content is "lynch fark". The choice to push towards my direction seems unfit for a scum agenda, but it's also a very lazy push from your side that could justify your lack of reads.

Plus, if you strongly believe DonC did an anti town play and would reach lylo, shouldn't you want this resolved with a lynch?

I am much more satisfied with a DC lynch though, i think this is the correct choice for today. Glad to see that interest is building up.

VOTE: DonCorleone

-Farkran

This was never unvoted

-F

[Farkset]

Interesting that not mafia put his vote on aldus at one point, that might have tipped the aldus wagon over

Alduskkel (8) - Melody, Cat Scratch Fever, Not_Mafia (Brassherad), Iconeum, Skitter30, Farkset, Datisi, DoctorPepper

Yeah i forgot about that... maybe if brass/nm didn't bus we might have not lynched aldus. Then again, once brass did, DC should have also bussed imo... and not claim that fake inno in d2. Those might have been the major mistakes from the scumteam, which is really nothing to be ashamed of.