Open 790 | Purgatory | Game Over!


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Post Post #28 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:02 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Hello boys and girls, it is I, Hayasaka and I am here to play o7
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Post Post #32 (isolation #1) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:05 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 27, Isis wrote:
In post 25, Cthylla wrote:
In post 21, Isis wrote:
I need to know if you're kidding or not about your guessing skilz.
Cause uh my readrate is etto really bad on Hectic right now, like really bad, and I would kind of like to policy heaven that.
if it means you'll policy heaven me then i am obviously Hectic friend : )
Historically towns playing this setup that have heavened scum early have won, so you shouldn't be smiley if you're town. That's what I was part of last time.

Does this mean I actually finished a game without you playing in it or spectating it, Hectic?
Personally I wish to be heavened early or late or at some point really.
My quest for power consumes me.
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Post Post #34 (isolation #2) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:07 am

Post by Hayasaka »

VOTE: Isis
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Post Post #38 (isolation #3) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:09 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 29, Isis wrote:
Hectic wanna see a cute waifu magic card I spent all my birthday money on
Whether or not I see a picture of a Japanese Narset in your upcoming post will determine how I read you moving forward.

pedit: Hmmm
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Post Post #53 (isolation #4) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:27 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 42, Isis wrote:
Ok if that won't push me to pull the trigger nothing will

I will not actually regret this decision

When I opened Amazon they were sitting in my cart, right where I've had them ambivalently for three months, on the precipice of my desire

Image

One day I will join you! Can't really play magic right now though and I like buying from my store :P
My sleeves have collected a lot of dust over the past 5 months of shuffling waiting for the world to open up again.

Spoiler:
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Post Post #58 (isolation #5) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:32 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I should really play the game though as happy as I am to see Isis order my favorite card and would love to stay off topic.
I think one of Isis or Cthylla is scum here, I think scum have the most incentive to open up the game with this much presence.

Similarly to the way scum tend to open up theme games strongly because they spent time getting hyped up already. I think scum would look and see their win con involves getting sent to heaven and would promptly decide to open up the game like this to try and achieve an early pocket.
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Post Post #59 (isolation #6) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:34 am

Post by Hayasaka »

No one else is giving me a vibe they are actually trying to town tell.
Honestly,VOTE: Cthylla is probably the worse offender of the 2.


Everyone else seems very mellow to me so I don't have super strong opinions across the board on them.
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Post Post #62 (isolation #7) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:37 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 60, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 59, Hayasaka wrote:Everyone else seems very mellow to me so I don't have super strong opinions across the board on them.
I am very hurt by that Hayasaka.
I am sorry Norwei I didn't mean to do that to you :(
I appreciate everything you have done so far!
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Post Post #67 (isolation #8) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:51 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I have a confession to make Isis, I also opened it.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #9) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Isis I thought we wanted to send scum to heaven early why are you voting Cythlla? :^)
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Post Post #79 (isolation #10) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:06 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I am trying to find 2 other people to fill out an EDH group with another scummer.
If you agree you technically I have to tell you my main when I dm you on discord.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #11) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:12 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 80, Isis wrote:
I'm voting Dannflor. Do you think he's scum?
pedit: I'm not into multiplayer/EDH, sorry :(
:(
^ To the important half of that post


In regards to Dannflor, I think he could be doing a better job trying to pocket the crowd if he was demonspawn here. Although he hasn't really done enough to make me feel strongly 1 way or the other.

The only read I am particularly happy about is my current vote. I think your energy is headed into way too many OOG posts for me to be able to think you are trying to actually pocket anyone.

This setup is weird because scum have to do more then just sit in the middle ground to win like a usual game of mafia, they really have to go above and beyond to win.
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Post Post #89 (isolation #12) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:24 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 84, Isis wrote:
Is that true? I thought this setup has a scumsided EV, so in theory not doing anything would work?
Like I felt like if the partner of the heavened scum in Dannflor's Purg had done less (instead of doing 4x average participation, as a hydra) the associatives to the heavened scum wouldn't have been as strong and our randomer helling would have lost out more.
It's the same reason why people choose to talk while playing Assassin in the Palace.
People like to squeeze out any points of EV they can, which would involve overextending early to try and get an early Heaven. Maybe you are right though and people you like to play with just take positive EV situation and try not to mess it up.

I could be wrong as not all people are the same and I certainly don't know the mind behind an alt, but I think people who are trying to town tell early on are more likely to be hellspawn. I used to think people who came out kicking where town but I ended up recording the stats on it and it turned out it was something that actually favored scum. Which is true for a lot of tells actually given they only need to work 30% of the time to "favor scum".

If we include the fact I am playing mafia here and not just applying stats I've collected to make reads. Then I also think scum are more likely to want to play like that in this setup.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #13) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:32 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 103, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 82, Hayasaka wrote:too many OOG posts
What does OOG mean
out of game.

Also, I'd like to make my posts pretty, so I am awaiting the tutorial from Isis.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #14) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:36 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I am now alive.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #15) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:47 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 126, Isis wrote:
Hay is a terrible nickname for Hayasaka and I am going to call her Narset until she asks me to stop which might be immediately
You may call me that if you'd like.
What deck do you run Narset in?
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Post Post #132 (isolation #16) » Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:55 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Actually I like the look of the blue Isis suggested a bit more.
Not sure if I agree with the Green Crayon read, he doesn't seem evil to me although maybe I'll see it down the line.

I am starting to like Dannflor for town his vote movement seems real. Although probably within the realm of fake-able actions.

Given the nature of this setup I think someone has to vote someone they don't want to vote as long as they think they are voting with town. We hold such a small amount of the votes that is kind of needed.
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Post Post #220 (isolation #17) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:41 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Good morning everyone o7
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Post Post #224 (isolation #18) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:52 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 221, Cthylla wrote:
i change playstyle and gimmick across alts
sureness of reads are part of playstyle and i have plenty of town and scum games where i act very sure about reads
and also plenty where i act or am unsure about them
I sort of understand this, this account has a functioN as well although it's not completely clear unless I told you what it was. Although to some degree I disagree with the notion of "faking confidence" since so many levels of mafia tend to get lost while playing over text I feel like that is something that should be preserved. But I guess it wasn't your choice to out so there isn't much you could have done about this.
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Post Post #326 (isolation #19) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:19 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I am now back, I will catch up soon young ones.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #20) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:35 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 160, Isis wrote:
Spoiler: stuff before 151 i looked at
In post 25, Cthylla wrote:
In post 21, Isis wrote:
I need to know if you're kidding or not about your guessing skilz.
Cause uh my readrate is etto really bad on Hectic right now, like really bad, and I would kind of like to policy heaven that.
if it means you'll policy heaven me then i am obviously Hectic friend : )
idk ok I know this already when through a rebuttal but I still feel like it's iffy
it's a bit of false equivalency about heaven being strictly positive in general when it's a lot easier to view it that way for scum.
Like as town, there is no difference between "being in heaven" and "not being in heaven yet"
It's still super weak and kind of a page 2 thing
but i'm starting form the beginning so yer

In post 31, Cthylla wrote:
In post 27, Isis wrote:
In post 25, Cthylla wrote:
In post 21, Isis wrote:
I need to know if you're kidding or not about your guessing skilz.
Cause uh my readrate is etto really bad on Hectic right now, like really bad, and I would kind of like to policy heaven that.
if it means you'll policy heaven me then i am obviously Hectic friend : )
Historically towns playing this setup that have heavened scum early have won, so you shouldn't be smiley if you're town. That's what I was part of last time.

Does this mean I actually finished a game without you playing in it or spectating it, Hectic?
really ??? that's surprising
is that cuz of flip and associations?
obv heavening town and helling scum is better EV though ...
ok actually this completely obviates my point cause then his level of perception of the setup is actually at ground zero for sure

and this isn't categorically something that gets faked because it's theory

In post 38, Hayasaka wrote:
In post 29, Isis wrote:
Hectic wanna see a cute waifu magic card I spent all my birthday money on
Whether or not I see a picture of a Japanese Narset in your upcoming post will determine how I read you moving forward.

pedit: Hmmm
i feel the need to nerd, and say, that this post would be scummy if I had posted a picture of progenitus, who is also very appendagey and big, and awesome, and one of my favorites, because she kind of telegraphed a splerurge of alignment expository posting in response to me failing to post narset

BUT
butBUTbut
Narset and Emrakul are both weird denial "you don't get to do whats you want to do" cards
which justifies her hmm
because i posted something narset adjacent
emrakul dumps all the cards out of your hands when during the controlled turn, narset just says on the card for your opponent to skip some draws
it is a similar effect
and they are both strong independent females
who have been banned or restricted in at least one format for being so mean and good at denying cards (Emrakul was banned from standard right after i spent so much birthday money on her, narset parter of veils is restricted to 1 per deck in vintage ruleset)
In post 46, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Isis you just ignored my question in favour of talking about cards. WHY is your text Purply?
Hectic said this was scummy
And I think Norwee always interacts with people over nai garbage at the beginning over game
and then i think oh also norwee is always scum in every game you've played so far.
So I guess I don't really know? but ignoringt he person it just looks like a question that was probably going to get ignored if he didn't ask again

i was planing to talk about
the kaladesh
next
In post 53, Hayasaka wrote:
In post 42, Isis wrote:
Ok if that won't push me to pull the trigger nothing will

I will not actually regret this decision

When I opened Amazon they were sitting in my cart, right where I've had them ambivalently for three months, on the precipice of my desire

Image

One day I will join you! Can't really play magic right now though and I like buying from my store :P
My sleeves have collected a lot of dust over the past 5 months of shuffling waiting for the world to open up again.

IMAGE
sober me composed this post earlier and backspaced but drunk me offers more unsolicited advice : my local game store owner made it clear on War of Spark release that he will have little to no availability of anime art planeswalker because it only comes out of boxes you buy in japan and buying drugdealzy boxes from japan just so people might buy anime art singles isnt as good a deal as just sticking with american inventory. so you might not be able to support your local game store with respect to anime planeswalker purchases (you might! but, maybe not)
I am waiting for the stores to open up to buy Ox of Agonas for my dredge deck from my local store even though I am tempted to order it and feel like I have it in my pocket cause i want to support.

In post 59, Hayasaka wrote:No one else is giving me a vibe they are actually trying to town tell.
Honestly,VOTE: Cthylla is probably the worse offender of the 2.


Everyone else seems very mellow to me so I don't have super strong opinions across the board on them.
this didn't occur to me on first readhtrough but on second did you know have you played with hectic and his kind of default status is is "is trying to towntell"? certainly as scum too but like
he always has that vibe
he starts the game and he says
I want to be the cat that runs up the tree not that cat that didn't
AND HE HAS AN ADORABLE KITTEN NOW!!!!!
so anyway i would tempoer your assessment if you'ven't played him

In post 61, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:
In post 56, Isis wrote:
Norwee is fun to bully
it is not strange to bully Norwee in any context
I see.

Bully noewee is terrible
Why bully in life.
VOTE: isis
This post was a little disconcerting cause i'm always worried about stuf that does this dance of being ambiguous of whether it should be counted for tally for solving

Does that make sense?
I want walter to be town cause he is new to site
welcome walter
pls to solve and this goes for word321 too, try not to think about strategies and just play the way to express your alignment
i have been using this word more lately express your alignment
it feels pretty
In post 62, Hayasaka wrote:
In post 60, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 59, Hayasaka wrote:Everyone else seems very mellow to me so I don't have super strong opinions across the board on them.
I am very hurt by that Hayasaka.
I am sorry Norwei I didn't mean to do that to you :(
I appreciate everything you have done so far!
mm what would you say he had done so far by here?

In post 73, Dannflor wrote:I don't want to send Isis anywhere I want her to stay in purgatory so she can share more cat pictures
This is weekly town indicative
because as a slip Dannflor is contemplating being in the thread with me, which means he is not devoting much mentals space to getting heavened (as a scum goal) or helled(as a scum fear) early
UNVOTE:
I didn't notice it the second time i noticed it the first time
I was busy ok
I wanna scumbin dannflor for two consecutive pages one day :/
In post 109, Cthylla wrote:VOTE: Green Crayons

don't like his entrance
agreeing with Hayasaka on a questionable theory
voting Isis for disliking her font
the theory is bad because Isis's entrance isn't different from her norm
also people post for fun
like Isis entered like this in her last game of achievement hunting
In post 110, Dannflor wrote:it's a good theory in the sense that it is a towny theory
In post 111, Cthylla wrote:
i agree
Hayasaka is cool for it
I still don't have heads or tails of this sequence where the Hayasaka theory was both bad and good?
In post 123, Hayasaka wrote:
I am now alive.
This is a good mafia game no matter what happens from here
In post 124, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 115, Cthylla wrote:
Green Crayons has played with Isis before !
the "happy with my vote" bit i didn't like
don't know why but maybe cuz it feels like he's putting unreasonable confidence in something which doesn't warrant it?
i should know isis's early game play from playing one game with her = dumb take

also lol i forgot how she entered that game, and also it's not comparable to here so = double dumb take

"happy with my vote" as in, i'm happy to take hay's theory down the Isis chute in responding to why hay wanted to go the Cth route
Is the difference between the Isis chute and the Cth chute font??
there's nothing more in your posts that i can find
what's the deal
I only figured out the "chutes" the second time
chutes and ladders

In post 133, word321 wrote:I like cats
Ur fonts look horrible in sepia
Maybe Ill get used to it

But lets get the ball roling
Has anyone played on this setup before?
Are there any strategies regarding this? As mafia and as town

Since there are no PRs, I guess a lot of traditional strategy is discarded here
I think scum would prefer to take a role assignment to "bitcher" or "nonbitcher" like GC or Cyth and I kind of like appreciating half the wincon-perpendicular behavior and complaining about half.
I think this entrance was objectively better than walter's
which means it was subjectively better but I am being superlative
which is annoying
have you even met someone who uses "literally" as their only superlative
and some people sprinkle "literally" in as a superlative that's normal
but one someone has no superlatives but that one
after a while you start to htink
"what this word actually means is exactly, in a way that is not superlative at all. When you say the taco form taco bell is literally mud in a roll of kleenex, you are incorrect because kleenex was not used."
Anyway I just did the same thing bad me
In post 143, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:
In post 141, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 133, word321 wrote:Has anyone played on this setup before?
Are there any strategies regarding this? As mafia and as town
I have. In another forum.
I played as scum in a 5 man team. D1 we bussed 1 scum, and then consequently heavened 2 people. We needed 1 moe but after that we got screwed by associations. It’s a hard setup for scum so i’m assuming they will try to muddy associations. Town should just play like town, not much difference there.
That is good to know.
Even though I have not played this setup at all.
I did some reading of the setup and I am thinking during heaven phase we should be careful with e-1 since scum will have incentive to self-hammer.
Also pressure votes too.
In your game norwee did that occur?
yeah so I referenced earlierer towards walter about setup strat talk
this shit is largely irrelevant
compared to townread some towny people and scumread some scummy people
Replying to this nicely was absurdly annoying to format so I will just not do it. So I am just going to reply to the parts that involve me.


This is a very good post, I think the anaylsis here is very much on point.
////
I checked my stores online store and Narset was both expensive and out of stock, so I will probably avoid making that purchase in hindsite. I also want to make sure I still am using the deck which will help me decide if I want one copy or 2/3. We will see but I agree I shouldn't keep my hopes up.
////
For the sake of the alt, let's say I am not experienced with Hectic because I don't want to delve into meta beyond the initial read I gave. The idea behind testing reads like this is that the number I found which shows entering threads like that indicate someone is more likely to be scum is a statistic that would include individual playstyles. Although I agree maybe I should do more then just play a game of statistics and just start yoinking people. I guess we will see by the end of this catch up where my vote lies.
////
I was being nice to Norwei he hasn't given me a very strong impression either way. Which could be town indicative in this setup I guess? He does need to end up endgaming somehow if he is scum. But I don't really have a good read on the slot. He is likely someone I won't try and read myself and let those with meta on him to do it for me.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #21) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:37 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 328, clidd wrote:I would like to see more opinions in Word's posts before commenting.

Particularly, I find his interpretive reasoning different from the town!Word that I know.
I hope you elaborate on this down the line even if you don't immediately. I am half putting this in my ISO if I ever want to look back at my own thoughts to make sure you follow up on this.
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Post Post #332 (isolation #22) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:48 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Mine or yours?
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Post Post #336 (isolation #23) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:59 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I like keeping my thought process open. I tend to read back on my own ISO to help keep my thoughts in line in a game of mafia otherwise I'd just be acting on whatever I remember and the last few pages instead of the thoughts I've developed over the course of the game. No explanation I can give beyond that because it wasn't a post that had much weight behind it.

Other people's meta reads tend to be pretty interesting to me, not because I find those reads hard to fake but they tend to have a pretty decent accuracy to them. Even when scum make them they usually have some element of truth to them since it's hard to lie about something I can check in the late game when I am trying to grind. So when I saw your post I wanted the explanation to see how it could help me.


pedit: umm... I am going to post this but I half think I am still misintepretting your posts??
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Post Post #339 (isolation #24) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:06 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I had a moment of pause that your dislike towards my post was actually in regards to why you don't like word.
Definitely a me issue not a you issue :P
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Post Post #349 (isolation #25) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:01 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I hate catching up, I've just been sitting here trying to start and am just not feeling it.

I've been thinking about this game and how bad is it to send town to hell?
I feel like the heaven vote is far more important.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #26) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:12 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 2, Morning Tweet wrote:Win Conditions:
- Town wins if the majority of scum (2) are sent to Hell.
- Scum wins if the majority of scum (2) are sent to Heaven --OR-- if a townie is sent to Hell during Judgment Day.
All it would do is bring us a judgment day.
It wouldn't outright make us lose.

Although I guess your right for some reason I forgot we still actually need to lynch scum even if we don't send scum to heaven.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #27) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:16 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Although in general I think good heaven days should still be a priority? Judgement days only occur when scum control 50% of the votes which means the dead townies have a 50/50 chance to lynch scum in a vacuum, and I'd argue it should be easier then that.

So by having good heaven days and bad hell days we are moving towards an easier game state for us to win in.
But bad heaven days will just result in us losing before we reach that 50/50 world.

I am not arguing we should be killing town but it's more I think we should put a stronger focus on town hunting right now?
My nomination for the first town is Dannflor.
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Post Post #363 (isolation #28) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:19 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Also a lot of this stems on the fact that I think Green Crayon could be town for me and I see him being pushed so I was trying to decide what to do about that. So these thoughts do have some level of a basis that isn't just insane rambling.

I started to evaluate how bad would killing him actually be since my read on him is more. I wouldn't send him to heaven or hell not a town read to oppose the currently present scum reads.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #29) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:23 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 362, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 360, Hayasaka wrote:My nomination for the first town is Dannflor.
Alright. Tell me more about it.
He doesn't strike me as being agenda driven this game. He is kind of just solving and doing his own thing I guess.

Do you think he is scum or do you just disagree with me having a town read here?
I don't feel that much stronger about anyone else.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #30) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:29 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 366, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I’m just a bit suspicious if you have an agenda for pushing this right now. But individually i also have a light TR on Dann.
Idk, I am confused in terms of getting a good scum read so I am trying to figure out what else I can be doing with my time right now.
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Post Post #385 (isolation #31) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:30 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Don't tempt me
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Post Post #386 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:00 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I forgot to sleep oops
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Post Post #391 (isolation #33) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:15 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 387, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Morning sunshine.
What's your read on Word right now?
I agree with the consensus he is flipping demon right now. Something about the way he is posting is giving me the feeling he is walling because he can not because he should. I also think he looks worse in his current exchange with Isis.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #34) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 8:38 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Don't get me wrong it was likely I was going to vote him, but as soon as I saw I wasn't needed to achieve hammer I had an awful feeling while spamming F5.


VOTE: WalterTheDunce

I'd like to nominate someone who was off wagon, and I don't know how I feel about Crayons yet.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #35) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:21 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I think the wagon has 2-3 scum on it and off wagon has 0-1 scum.
Mainly due to the pace in which we achieved that lynch, I just highly doubt that as a town we were able to mislynch that fast while I am the only town off wagon. That would raise the question of, is both GC and Walter scum together and happened to be off wagon? And I think the very simple answer to that question is no.

Issue is all 3 scum likely aren't on the wagon together which would mean voting off the wagon not considering my self would be a 50/50 which is actually worse odds then just voting on wagon.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #36) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:22 am

Post by Hayasaka »

As someone who was going to fuck up that vote at some point, I just have the following question to ask. Was word so absurdly bad you think that pace was justified by a dominantly town wagon?
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Post Post #461 (isolation #37) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:27 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I think the wagon occured at a very fast pace from the time word started to post seriously.
that indicates the lynch had multiple scum on it and wasn't a lynch scum looked at and went "We can keep our hands clean and let town do this for us".
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Post Post #464 (isolation #38) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:38 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I can recognize trends and acknowledge games that deviate from them. Also that hammer wasn't intended and neither was the L-1 vote. But I don't like looking at circumstances when analyzing hard stats, stats should be able to speak for themselves even including deviations.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #39) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:42 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 463, Isis wrote:
I shall fight your awful wording white must be removed from the color pie
I really like playing white :(
Not having fliers in limited is incredibly boring and sometimes I don't want to play blue.

Jokes aside let me think about this for a bit I am not sure I can be persuaded that easily.

pedit: You are making the correct call not disturbing the kitty.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #40) » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:50 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Fast L-1s and fast hammers are very different.
In micro games you get L-1s as early as RVS.

On wagon I'd just vote Dannflor really but I'd need to think about it.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #41) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:55 am

Post by Hayasaka »

VOTE: Dannflor
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Post Post #489 (isolation #42) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:08 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Anyone home
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Post Post #523 (isolation #43) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:51 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 517, clidd wrote:Because she's thinking differently and I can't see how she thinks Dann is the best option in the context of his activity and other options. GC fits in the same world.

Do you think I am not trying to be critical of my own reads?
I don't know we just disagree and we can't really say which one of us is right until the post game. Feels like a weird way to attack the idea that we disagree rather then the points themselves being brought up.
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Post Post #541 (isolation #44) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:16 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 526, clidd wrote:I think that you're trolling in your reads.

If we're disagreeing like that, I don't think it's natural if everyone on this is town. That is my impression.
I mean my hesitation on the word lynch was warranted as we can see.
I feel like the general accepted idea this game is that everything is incredibly easy and while I think your paranoia throughout this exchange is making me think you are town.
That suddenly doesn't put any more weight into your reads nor does it change the fact that almost 50% of the living players aren't actually town.

I wouldn't say I think GC is town but I am certainly not resolved in saying he is scum or even leaning that way.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #45) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:20 am

Post by Hayasaka »

UNVOTE:

I don't town read Dannflor atm. I am not sure who I actually trust if you want me to be honest.
I feel like I am the only one who isn't incredibly scared of the fact that with 8 alive we are dealing with a scum team of 3?

Everyone feels rather relaxed in regards to that information which feels incredibly strange to me. Maybe GC's paranoia in regards to everything is giving me a level of warmth that is leaning towards a thought process similar to my own?
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Post Post #547 (isolation #46) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:25 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 490, Green Crayons wrote:Hayasaka
Dannflor
Norwegian
Something about this top 3 pool to me just feels right and it's why I am reluctant to just throw GC under the bus.
Because these were the people I trusted to be town at the time of his post. Although I wouldn't say I have any confident reads at this moment in time.

I stand by Walter vote I made in the sense that I don't think 2 scum are ever off wagon with me.
And if I send a scum to heaven at the very least their is a huge question mark slot I will determine is town.

But without people being able to agree on that entire plan I don't see why I would push a singular read like that.
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Post Post #550 (isolation #47) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:29 am

Post by Hayasaka »

GC I think the last 2 pages show that Clidd is probably town?
I don't think describing a town who is putting a reasonable amount of effort into the game as "trolling" is likely ever a good idea.

I either have a screw loose, get pissed off and that means trouble for Clidd.
And even if I wouldn't react adversely to that I'd have to assume his entire exchange makes sense in regards to that quote.
I think his general stance in regards to that is fairly townie, although his self meta is giving me a bit of a pause.

So half the time that's just a bad play and the other half of the time he has to outsmart me. So I am sort of leaning town, also this just isn't a gamestate where I feel scum need to slam down a bunch of paranoia unless it's (Isis, Cythlla, Clidd) in particular as the team so the general thread presence they have wouldn't be as noticeable to him.
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Post Post #551 (isolation #48) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:29 am

Post by Hayasaka »

My lack of Narset text almost made me think I alt slipped lol.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #49) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:31 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 549, clidd wrote:I think I'm trolling too.

I thought we were dealing with 2 scums (9p setup is 2 scum to me).
I mean hopefully you are just town trolling? At least that means I moving towards the actual correct world we are living in.

I don't think both Isis and Cythlla are scum for the way they are interacting. Although it's not fully clearing it's something Isis and Cythlla would have to actively be trying to fake rather then a post that just comes naturally.

Which means if GC is town and my general gut feelings are right then I have too many towns already.

(Clidd, Myself, GC, Dann, Norwei, Isis/Cythlla)

Which means to some degree what I am doing already has to be wrong which sucks especially given the overall lack of what is currently going on inside the thread.
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Post Post #561 (isolation #50) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:49 am

Post by Hayasaka »

That looks around right.
Why does agreeing with people make me nervous?
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Post Post #564 (isolation #51) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:53 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I just feel these last 2 pages really make me think Clidd and GC are a lot more likely to be town then they were previously.
Which really just makes my reads feel all over the place.

Also if right by voting Clidd or GC I am breaking apart whoever I think is town which would essentially just stick us in some flavor of lylo tomorrow.
But it's not like we can mess up this phase by shooting a low tier town read since the "judgement" phase doesn't work if we don't have a town in heaven.

The ruleset doesn't state what would happen if we didn't have town in heaven during the judgement phase but we can just assume that it would be a loss for us.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #52) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:55 am

Post by Hayasaka »

My day 1 play assumes scum will play poorly and will play on auto pilot not trying to fake anything. Typically this is a decent strat if town reaing most of the game and nailing the bad scum player is what you want to do. But unfortunately a combination of such a large % of the game being scum and us currently being in the heaven phase means my usual approach won't work.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #53) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:02 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

If strategy wasn't a thing I was considering I'd be voting Clidd right now. But to some degree I value having his opinion available on the battlefield.
GC and Norwei I am just not sure I am ready to call them town and just move on. I am going to check both ISOs and get back to you all.

I'd prefer if people started to talk more about who they wanted to send to heaven I am only sure what a few of you want to. We also have people like Isis who are just talking about scum reads over the heaven vote :/ Not saying that's a bad thing to do, it just makes finding a solid direction difficult.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #54) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:04 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I think I am comfortable sending him off, but I don't want to rush anything and end up making a mistake. But I feel good enough that I am at least willing to put my vote to show I mean buisiness. Although I want to reread a bit before I am 100%.

VOTE: GreenCrayon
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Post Post #601 (isolation #55) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:35 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 591, Isis wrote:I'm not nervous about it being a 3:5 ftr because I think townhunting is less brutalized by ratios than scumhunting but this is like the only setup for testing that (besides Undertale opens pls pre-in) so it's not an opinion with a strong foundation
If we are right on the heaven then we are just scum hunting in 3:4 tomorrow which seems very worrisome to me!
Although maybe it's just me who is constantly afraid of being wrong in this game. Maybe I should be looking at this game in a more short term manner since today is likely going to be relatively easy.
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Post Post #602 (isolation #56) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:44 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I've been on the fence if I truly want to be heavened. To some degree I view myself as a pretty competent player with good enough reads so I can trust myself to not make a shit call. But it's also not something I am sure I'd want to make all on my own since I think I'd allow myself to be unnecessarily swayed by the living which is just the worst thing a heavened player should do.

I am very eager to see the catch up post from Cythlla since I am not actually sure Isis is town so more information is always appreciated.

Overall I think GC is approaching this game like town so I am not sure what inconsitencies Cythlla saw, and I am wondering if those are even alignment indicative inconsistencies. Town are perfectly capable of being inconsistent and many times inconsitencies can indicate someone is actually town so it's a read I am relatively interested in engaging her on.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #57) » Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:44 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I have a headache so I don't want to stick around for too long.
I'd be willing to compromise and vote Clidd here but I believe he doesn't actually want to be heavened and that's a wish I am willing to respect at this moment in time.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #58) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:03 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 604, Isis wrote:
In post 603, Hayasaka wrote:

I'd be willing to compromise and vote Clidd here but I believe he doesn't actually want to be heavened and that's a wish I am willing to respect at this moment in time.
This is the wrong attitude. Not wanting to go to heaven makes him townier, which is all the more reason to drag him kicking and screaming through the pearly gates.
It's like when Sam doesn't really want to carry the ring, and then you realize they should probably actually send Frodo home and have Sam carry the ring.
Every amount of preference clidd genuinely has for staying in purgatory gives him -1 pts for "give clidd what he prefers" and +20 for "clidd's preference means this is a safe heaven"

Why do you want to honor clidd's preference, and is it based on winning this game at any cost or a natural desire to be nice to people?
I can be nice and win this game D:

We also just don't gain much in terms of information since it is clear cut putting him in Heaven isn't the worst idea. Even right now trying to make it not happen Clidd is going to be the only one who won't want to do it. And in general I just find that information is relatively important.

Although the above is a retroactive reason I came up with this morning.
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Post Post #610 (isolation #59) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:29 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I mean we can heaven him if we as a group truly cannot find another player we all believe to be town. I think a player can be conensus town to the degree in which scum are unlikely to fight it and town are unlikely to disagree, without believing I actually have a 100% read on Clidd. I am reluctant to ever state reads with that much adamancy because to some degree I agree with that logic that those reads don't happen very often.
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Post Post #611 (isolation #60) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:40 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Also I am just not that much more confident Clidd is town compared to Green Crayon after recent events. Pushing GC for town is offering me a lot more interesting posts then pushing Clidd for town ever will. So from my own perspective I am not altering my own win rate while achieving the goal I listed.
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Post Post #659 (isolation #61) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:28 am

Post by Hayasaka »

"Norwee" I actually really like the sound of that.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #62) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:02 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Another one bites the dust :sad:
I've had a bad streak on that recently lmao.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #63) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:05 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Tfw I alt slipped in the dance game because I was using firefox for Hayasaka, then I alt slipped here because I swapped back to chrome to use snippets. Never lucky.
I mean this account was always meant to be a play style choice and not a secret alt anyway.
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Post Post #678 (isolation #64) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:05 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 677, NorwegianboyEE wrote:FUCK. My guess at who your main is was wrong.
R E K T
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Post Post #681 (isolation #65) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:10 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Did you figure it out in trust fall when you first brought it up or just now?
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Post Post #688 (isolation #66) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:33 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 612, Isis wrote:
In post 611, Hayasaka wrote:
So from my own perspective I am not altering my own win rate while achieving the goal I listed.
You're a filthy Zedruu player aren't you
I am even better then that!


Spoiler:
Image
In post 615, clidd wrote: By the way, it would be good if GC posts today. I want to see his last reads/pov/reaction/etc.
I am just going to throw this out there but I don't think it means anything. But you have many posts that read somewhere along the lines of "I am waiting for X to post". Without a specific request within those posts. I like marking things like this because when I end up sending you to heaven I like knowing I fucked up while seeing something odd.

In post 630, Cthylla wrote:
In post 82, Hayasaka wrote:I think your energy is headed into way too many OOG posts for me to be able to think you are trying to actually pocket anyone.
Don't get this.
I think a scum who is trying to pocket people would also try and shift the pocket in an ingame way as well. And I sort of feel like me and Isis are operating in a pretty distinct manner from an in game standpoint. The POV that she could be trying to pocket me is something that I don't think is completely out of the question but it's something I don't think is happening at the very least not on purpose.

In post 685, Isis wrote:
Lady 7 had an unfair advantage over me
I mean being outed isn't going to change my chosen play style and make me use any form of meta.
I still am going to do a more medium effort, experimental reasoning approach that I've been doing. I don't really like playing as or in the mindset of being beeboy sometimes.
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Post Post #689 (isolation #67) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:34 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I'd rather GC address your read, Cthylla before I choose to. I think me doing so would hurt this game overall.
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Post Post #690 (isolation #68) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:35 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 684, Cthylla wrote:
If you wanna know the why, it's because of this:

Image

and I noticed some habits, like mixing "your" and "you're" on occasion.
Someone told me after posting that image in 3 games I shouldn't make a Hayasaka alt.
Hmmm.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #69) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:07 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 691, Isis wrote:
I was just kidding

I have trouble "getting" "i made an alt for a playstyle" people though

I like don't understand how you could make a different playstyle without omitting pieces of yourself

and if you omit pieces of yourself you make yourself worse

so why not just be the best possible you
I tend to be pretty critical of myself. So when I mess up I end up feeling kinda shitty about myself as I feel I let down my team. So sometimes I just like playing on alts to basically hide from that. It allows me to just sit back and analyze my reads instead of myself. I know this explanation doesn't make it sound any less stupid lmao.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #70) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:20 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 694, Dannflor wrote:Actually, I don't really understand why I'm seemingly high on everyone's town list
If it makes you feel better you are in the middle of my list right now. I changed my mind after reviewing my read.

In post 702, Cthylla wrote:
In post 699, Green Crayons wrote:
In post 641, Cthylla wrote:VOTE: clidd

I would heaven clidd or Dannflor today.
Cool, so either clidd of Dann is scum and I don't think it's possible to work out the WIFOM of it until a flip.

UNVOTE: Dann
VOTE: Hayasaka

This is so surface level again. He's making the level 0 read of "a demon would try and push their demon partner", and considering stuff like how I'm demonread and what it'll look for my teammates if I am a demon and get helled tomorrow etc. Green Crayons isn't like this as town.
I feel like you are tunneling right now. I am not saying what he is doing is golden play but I feel like town play level 1 mafia all the time. I could liik up meta if I really needed to since I am basically just replying to your read saying "nahhhh" and that feels dismissive to me.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #71) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:21 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 717, Isis wrote:
It seems pretty different to me, that doesn't necessarily entail "holding back".
I think I have a pretty bad winrate as both alignments, although I intentionally don't track it, and even though I try pretty hard I think mafia is probably more enjoyable the more I suck at it, so I don't get too upset about my shortcomings.
This seems very healthy compared to my approach!!
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Post Post #741 (isolation #72) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:30 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 737, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I just thought of something, what if Cthylla and GC is scum theatre.
After all, this game mode is all about anti-associations between scum.
I actually had that theory about Cthylla and Isis earlier on when I was tin foiling at work today. But I don't think scum would be playing well if they actually commit to a bus since we only need 2 mislynches to win so I don't think going 1 for 1 is ever a good idea.

The only way "trading" pays off is if you don't let yourself get sent to heaven until you can support your last buddy.
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Post Post #746 (isolation #73) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:32 am

Post by Hayasaka »

This is a weird nightless setup because a singular god scum isn't actually enough to win scum the game. This isn't something I am particularly used to. It also messes with how scum would interact with scum because I think intuitively you might think bussing in nightless isn't the worst idea, but with a deeper thought process it is? But how am I supposed to know if scum thought it through or even agreed with me.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #74) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:32 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Isis, Dannflor are you 2 town? We can play like the dance game again and be an unstoppable force. That was a fun game.
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Post Post #751 (isolation #75) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:34 am

Post by Hayasaka »

For whatever it's worth Cthylla I think Walter is my vote going into the next hell phase.
Although I guess like everything it depends on the next flip
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Post Post #755 (isolation #76) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:37 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Don't get me wrong I think walter is scum but he has managed to land his way into every single team callout.
My fear of Isis is solely based on my fear that Walter is flipping scum.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #77) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:38 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 754, Isis wrote:
In post 748, Hayasaka wrote:
Isis, Dannflor are you 2 town? We can play like the dance game again and be an unstoppable force. That was a fun game.
Ok hectic if I was scum and I wanted to pocket people it would look something like this :starmie:
:good:
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Post Post #767 (isolation #78) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:48 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Someone died in my DnD session last night.
Was a very sad day ;-;
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Post Post #768 (isolation #79) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:48 am

Post by Hayasaka »

He did not nat20...
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Post Post #796 (isolation #80) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:00 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 790, clidd wrote:We'll probably do Isis or Hayasaka today.
I actually don't fully trust Isis which is why I want to send her to Heaven.

I think it would be better if Isis is vibing in heaven in a situation where it's 3 scum - 3 town alive.
She would have a 75% chance to hit correctly with both me and you still on the battle field assuming she never tries to murderize us.
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Post Post #797 (isolation #81) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:00 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

This plan would give us a massive buffer if we mislynch tomorrow.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #82) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:23 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

You don't see the value in leaving him on the dance floor so we can have a townie just dominate the playing field? Especially when having a lock town on the floor means all judgement days have a >50% chance of succeeding.
It just feels like a horrific waste of Clidd.
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Post Post #808 (isolation #83) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:41 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

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Post Post #813 (isolation #84) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:50 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 812, Dannflor wrote:I keep thinking Isis might be scum but I think I am never going to make up my mind completely so I should just trust that my original gut on her was correct and that if I'm wrong heavening her is probably better than leaving her to win the game by sending me cat pictures
I agree with this in a super loose sense.
But the thing is between Clidd, Myself and GC who should all be town, I am unsure if I should vote outside them.
My only exception to that is Clidd who I don't want to vote in because I want him to stay on the dance floor.

The reason Clidd doesn't want GC in Heaven is he thinks GC is going to mess up the vote which I am not that worried about.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #85) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:51 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I am sure GC could easily be mafia playing Checkers right now. But to be ok putting him in Heaven town needs to conclude we both want him in Heaven and that we also want Cthylla dead in the judgement day.
And while I am not ok with the latter I do believe that he is making a very poor line if he is scum here.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #86) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:52 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I think any line that makes you look town but has some kind of conditional that is pretty shit is a line you should never take as scum.
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Post Post #817 (isolation #87) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:57 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

I don't want to send you to heaven Clidd.
I think GC is town.
If either of us go to Heaven I am not sure alone we can keep GC afloat in the hell phase.

I don't have an option I view as 100% viable since I don't have a 4th town read I am completely confident in.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #88) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:02 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

My other thing on why I am unsure if I can vote Isis is it's basically what everyone's secondary option is.
It makes me feel like we are just wrong and the demons are fine seeing it happen.
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Post Post #827 (isolation #89) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:07 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 823, Dannflor wrote:
In post 822, Hayasaka wrote:My other thing on why I am unsure if I can vote Isis is it's basically what everyone's secondary option is.
yeah this is what keeps giving me the heebie jeebies

I also don't think it's the end of the world if we heaven Isis!scum

but maybe she is not the town read I need to check right now
I am not against sending her to heaven ever based on this read. I am just hesitant to do it right now.
I actually think after we flip our first scum she would be a great target. If we send scum to heaven on the first phase we have to lynch scum otherwise we lose since no one will be able to properly "judge" us.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #90) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:08 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 823, Dannflor wrote:
In post 822, Hayasaka wrote:My other thing on why I am unsure if I can vote Isis is it's basically what everyone's secondary option is.
yeah this is what keeps giving me the heebie jeebies

I also don't think it's the end of the world if we heaven Isis!scum

but maybe she is not the town read I need to check right now
I am not against sending her to heaven ever based on this read. I am just hesitant to do it right now.
I actually think after we flip our first scum she would be a great target. If we send scum to heaven on the first phase we have to lynch scum otherwise we lose since no one will be able to properly "judge" us.
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Post Post #829 (isolation #91) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:11 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

And we have too much disonnence right now as a town for me to think all 4 of the town can connect in order to achieve a lynch in a lylo situation. I think the fact scum can't just open wolf due to the judgement phase is our only saving grace.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #92) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 830, Dannflor wrote:are you particularly against or for your own slot going to heaven this phase, Hayasaka?
I don't really want to be responsible to make the judgement vote by myself, but I guess that is kind of a stupid reason.
I have 0 gameplay reason to actually care if I stay in the thread, I think Clidd can carry the thread without me and he doesn't have any reads I hate.

I also just don't want to see our most dominant obvious town Clidd in heaven.
So I guess between me and Clidd I'd pick me.
Between me and someone else I'd need time to think about it. The only people I'd consider are you and GC.
I wasn't wrong to town read you in Trust Fall for a bad hard to explain read but you also could be like Dunnstral where I just town read you every game for how you play.
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Post Post #839 (isolation #93) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

We need to send town that isn't Clidd to heaven today.
We need to lynch scum tomorrow so we can heaven Isis or GC.
We can send GC to heaven 2nd because he is town and also I or whoever is up their with him can talk to him during judgement day since the main fear is leaving him in heaven alone to just kill Cythlla without a real regard for anything else.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #94) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:29 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

To some degree I am very resolved to send GC to heaven 2nd right now.
Dude is clearly town.
That piece of information is not clear to everyone.
If I am wrong I was never lynching him anyway :^)

pedit: I'll probably do both.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #95) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:35 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 846, Cthylla wrote:
Why is Green Crayons clearly town, Hayasaka? Send me back if you've already explained the read.
I could be playing multiple steps above what GC is thinking and am just playing myself.
But if GC is pushing you because he thinks that will help get himself heavened.
Then he either needs to manage to kill you first, and be able to play off your town flip which is an awful line of play.
Or he has to think he can get heavened early, but not only does that mean he has to play off his push on you. But town would also need to accept the fact he is almost always going to kill you in the judgement phase.
I just think if he thought this line through he would never follow through with it.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #96) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:08 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

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I town read too many people.
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Post Post #861 (isolation #97) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:19 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 860, Cthylla wrote:
Who exactly do you townread, Hayasaka?
Clidd, GC, Dann.

Issue is you and Isis are also giving me town vibes.

That leaves exactly Norwei and Walter. Which just feels like low hanging fruit and not proper scum reads that aren't shit.

In a 2 scum game this would be a fine place to be, but in a 3 scum game it just feels like I am griefing
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Post Post #863 (isolation #98) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:50 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 862, clidd wrote:I can see we being wrong on Dann, but I'll know when I sort Cth/Walter.
I want to see which of my lower reads flips scum before I start to worry which of my upper reads is town. Deviating from that approach typically results in town losses.
But maybe it's Dann, can't say with my current info. And we could easily just happen to be right here.
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Post Post #866 (isolation #99) » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:10 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

Now that Crossfire is done and I've officially seen Isis play scum.
I have no new information I'd like to add to my read.

That is all.
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Post Post #885 (isolation #100) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:29 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 875, Isis wrote:
I just lost a normal where everyone talked me out of my good reads :(
Confirmed town ez
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Post Post #886 (isolation #101) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:30 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I didn't mean to quote that and as you can see by my text I am back to bed.
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Post Post #892 (isolation #102) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:59 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I don't really want to self vote yet if that's ok?
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Post Post #894 (isolation #103) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:17 am

Post by Hayasaka »

My main fear is you guys are going to adjust your play around who you think I will kill from heaven. When my reads will fluctuate just as much if not more often then you guys on land. So a line of reasoning like "we should probably kill GC since Hayasaka won't" is a line that I believe is comparable to what could go through your heads. And I think a mindset like that could really mess us up.

I didn't expect this to happen so fast and didn't really want to type out a long post today.
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Post Post #896 (isolation #104) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:27 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I still think Clidd should stay on the battlefield all game until we heaven a first scum.
I think the dude just drives so much discussion he is an invaluable asset on the battlefield.
I don't think he should be kept because of his reads or because he sees eye to eye with me.

My main thing is if we can't come up with a 2nd town read that we don't hate then we are never winning this game together because without Clidd we are just going to fall apart. And while I'd like to imagine me and Clidd can just chain snipe all the scum on judgement days I'd like to avoid needing to do that as possible.

Basically if we can't find a town player that isn't Clidd then you guys are never going to lynch scum without him either. Finding town reads should honestly be the easiest part of this setup and you guys are talking about just ripping in Clidd like it's our only viable option.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #105) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:32 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I think shit like Dann wanting to stay behind is bad because I don't really see him being some glue that is holding us together in the thread. And I think the logic of someone having 5% better reads then average and should stay is actually kinda bad, since you can use your reads in heaven anyway.

Content generation on an average player is far more useful to the town then an above average player. Not to mention he can act as glue pretty well. A player who can generate the content needed to make the game a lot more solvable or hold the group together are the most valuable asset to win a game. Clidd does both of those things and just getting rid of him to get a 98% town read over a 93% town read is just a horrid mistake to me.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #106) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:37 am

Post by Hayasaka »

GC should probably come to heaven next, he keeps double downing on things that are making the crowd go kinda nuts towards him. I think the way he tunneled is town and I think it has no regard for how people perceive him. He locked himself out of the first heaven, pushing me for heaven initially definitely was a big deal in driving it through and it's not like I didn't have a chance to fumble later in the game or just push through some level of a deep wolf.

I really think that getting me heavened was pretty stoppable in some form given I really was neutral on the idea of getting heavened myself lol.

I still believe that a reasonable scum player wouldn't just hard push someone like that. Because he put the 2nd condition on his own heavening that we have to realize once he hits heaven he is just going to drive Cthylla into the ground all game. I believe this read to be a lot stronger then my Dann actually which tbh I wouldn't be able to explain if you asked me to. Since for Dann it's really "I like his posts and I don't dislike his posts".

Honestly I guess a conditional on GC is he could just be right and doesn't ever expect to win the 1v1? It wouldn't stop Cthylla from being heavened and would prompty get him heavened after. But now is not the time to consider these convoluted low % worlds.
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Post Post #902 (isolation #107) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:38 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 900, Green Crayons wrote:How about we keep confirmed town Haya in the game and instead test one of our second-tier town reads?
I don't add nearly enough to the game for this to be a good idea.
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Post Post #904 (isolation #108) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:43 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I am unsure if the Isis posts are town or scum. They keep erring on the side of caution in regards to how we should send town to heaven. But after our varying disagreements in the dance game on theory at the very least I am willing to vouch that she believes what she is saying right now. The issue behind this phase and the last phase as whole in regards to analyzing her is. Everyone wanted to play badly last phase outside GC and following theory you believe to push the town I basically am almost already sure is going to flip town is also not that alignment indicative. So from a pure action standpoint I can't look at anything Isis has done and go "ah yes clear town play". And her tone is mildly townie I guess but that just isn't good enough as a reason on it's own when I think all the ideas behind the posts can be faked.

So honestly I am going to decide this read in Heaven.

pedit: It's ok I think Clidd is still more useful then me, and this belief should be held in heaven 2. Ty <3
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Post Post #905 (isolation #109) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:46 am

Post by Hayasaka »

My thing that balances out Isis tone is that she has a singular post after I vote Walter day start that says she is fine doing it. When voting walter was the stupidest thing I've done all game. I know I also fucked this up but something something deluxe oil :^)

I think Walter is shifting in and outside of this thread in a way akin to scum. He proceeds to hold me as a top town read but votes in Isis instead which feels like an awful idea to me. Maybe from the perspective of Isis where she knows she is town that would be a better look. But even when I imagine Isis as town it's just a vote on a townie that will never amount to anything. It's incredibly weird actually and he should die next.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #110) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:50 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Cthylla has some town moments and reactions to the push made by GC. Nothing to write home about but I also don't hate it. Probably slightl above Isis but the 2 slots are comparable enough that the one I rank higher is entirely dependant on how I feel about the previous page over any real solid logic.

Cthylla has the tunnel on GC and I find as scum hiding behind a tunnel isn't the hardest thing in the world. It's actuallly what a lot of pretty above average players like to do which is the camp I'd probably throw Hectic in. But meh, it's a good strat because town do it, I should really build a spreadsheet on comparing tunnels to alignments. Given tunnels are usually 2 ways this tell could never break 50% but it would be interesting to see if it's rand of like 35% of the time it's done by scum.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #111) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:51 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Norwee is largly poe but I think in a game of this content volume you shouldn't just look like a throwaway POE yeet.
I think Walter has explicitly done scummy things and should die first. But Norwee is like the confusion "ah ok just kill this guy he flips wolves often enough". I am sure if I took the proper time to read his ISO I could get a read that isn't shit but it's not something I want to do first thing in the morning.
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Post Post #908 (isolation #112) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:53 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Since no one is going to actually read any of the above posts I am going to make a cute little "how to survive package" package before I go.
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Post Post #909 (isolation #113) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:06 am

Post by Hayasaka »

Spoiler:
Image


Hard Town Do Not Touch

Clidd - Make sure not to heaven this boi
GreenCrayon - This guy should Be heavened next

Idk (ordered)

Dann
Cthylla
Isis

Idk probably murder

Norwee

Murder Zone

Walter
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Post Post #910 (isolation #114) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:08 am

Post by Hayasaka »

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VOTE: Hayasaka
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Post Post #911 (isolation #115) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:12 am

Post by Hayasaka »

For heaven 2, I truly believe at this moment in time Clidd is the direction we need. If we ever heaven scum Clidd goes but until then just keep him.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #116) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:37 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 911, Hayasaka wrote:
For heaven 2, I truly believe at this moment in time Clidd is the direction we need. If we ever heaven scum Clidd goes but until then just keep him.
I just think that whoever is our 2nd top town read isn't dying anyway so going them -> Clidd isn't that much worse for us then going Clidd -> them. I think giving anyone but Clidd a pass gets a bit icky since we our passing over multiple towns in that case. But outside that what we are doing should be fine.
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Post Post #914 (isolation #117) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:37 am

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 912, Cthylla wrote:
o7

quality stuff, I'll try my beat to reevaluate my read on Green Crayons if you're so sure on him
o7
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Post Post #923 (isolation #118) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:25 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I wouldn't be posting so much post hammer if I was scum lol.
I was really tempted to just mention Isis or something and say "sorry if you felt I was trying to pocket you" just to bait a reaction.
But idk I think most people could play off me faking a scum claim like that and I was worried it would hurt the town.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #119) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:26 am

Post by Hayasaka »

A few games ago, I helped someone fake a hammer on someone, played along with it. That person ended up being scum and I scum read them down the line. Due to that line of play I did no one would trust my read. And I sort of blame myself for that since I enabled the play and even bought it initially.
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Post Post #928 (isolation #120) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:28 am

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I mean it works on like level 1 players.
But even then I claimed desperado once. I shot town during the day using fake bold tags.
The town said "rip me" because they didn't know how desperado worked momentarily. Also lost town the game.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #121) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:30 am

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In post 926, Dannflor wrote:I think I'm slowly coming around to a town read on both sides of the Cthulu/GC conflict, which I fear means Isis has to be scum
I do think my bottom 3 is correct right now. :\
Wish I could stay and help but someone had to go to heaven.

I guess this does put a bit of a smile on my face though compared to being the n1 kill :P
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Post Post #931 (isolation #122) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:33 am

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I just have this thing where Isis is treating the heaven like a night kill effectively.
While I think someone like GC who is town is although suggesting a poor strat like getting me to stay is at least trying to optimize it in a way that comes from town.
My main fear which keeps Isis as the weakest of my scum reads is that Isis is just a far more technical mind then my own, so to say I could understand her would just be a lie on my part.
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Post Post #933 (isolation #123) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:40 am

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Like my thought process of we aren't going to ever lynch our 2nd best town read. So why should we heaven our top town read and lose the most valuable player.

If the 2nd best town read is scum they just get heavened right after Clidd anyway? So might as well keep Clidd around for an extra day phase to direct us after we take that hit. The only way this doesn't work is the 2-5% world we are all wrong on Clidd. But the only reason we don't want to go after the 2nd best town is we want the highest chance to hit anyway????

That feels like a super basic and easy to come up with thought so idk why Isis fundamentally just doesn't see what I am seeing. So even if our brains just work on different levels I feel meh about it still.
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Post Post #934 (isolation #124) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:41 am

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In post 591, Isis wrote:I kind of don't hate a Walter heaven but it's not a clidd heaven. I kind of don't hate a Norwee heaven but it's not a clidd heaven. Both of those slots seem kind of comfortable in the game thread and lean town to me.
Ctrl+F walter in her ISO.
This being 1 of the 5 mentions sucks on so many levels
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Post Post #935 (isolation #125) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:42 am

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In post 932, Dannflor wrote:that bothers me less than the timing of Isis dropping me in her reads does, although there could be some element of OMGUS here

I also think her reasons for scum reading me are... somewhat forced and contradictory to earlier comments. Like early in the game she advocated for stronger players going to heaven because they needed to solve from there. And based off that, I basically decided well I don't think I'm a very strong player so I probably should not be going. and then she accuses me of thinking so highly of myself that I want to stay. Which has a second issue of I think she knows me well enough to know that I have very low-confidence in my own ability.

I also don't really understand why she didn't ask me for further explanation on some of my town reads rather than just call me out on "not explaining them," particularly when she's witnessed me be a player who throws out a lot of reads in a somewhat erratic fashion because my mind jumps all over the place

I dunno I just can't shake the feeling that I am being pushed as scummier because I have to be and the pool of people that could possibly be mis-elimed is shrinking
ugh... I hate leaving here. I just feel like I opened up another world of topics I want to talk about.
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Post Post #939 (isolation #126) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:44 am

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Kill walter on scum Heaven GC.
Evaluate after that?

On Walter town we should probably slow down a bit.
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Post Post #940 (isolation #127) » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:44 am

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Actually if walter flips town judgement day is on me... fuck
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Post Post #1626 (isolation #128) » Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:31 pm

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In post 1616, Menalque wrote:Well played town, I was spectating but not closely. Hectic, your p5 powersolve was great, but mostly I’m just very, very impressed by Hayasaka and wondering who she’s an alt of.
I alt slipped this game, my main will be somewhere in the ISO list :P
Thanks a lot Mena I appreciate the kind words ^^
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Post Post #1644 (isolation #129) » Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:42 pm

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In post 1641, clidd wrote:By the way:

Well played, Hayasaka.

Good job Dunn and Cth. Thanks for replacing in DrDolittle.
o7 You also did well.
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Post Post #1658 (isolation #130) » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:37 pm

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In post 1646, Morning Tweet wrote:In particular, Cthylla's early page 5 call out of the entire team from their interactions seeming fake, as well as Hayasaka having trouble deciding on which member of the mafia to condemn while in Heaven both took me aback lol
I was probably the person the most afraid of seeing the result of the Isis flip lmao.

I put a lot into that vote, I spent 4 straight hours thinking about my choice in Heaven, Hectic made it look a lot easier then I did lol. I hammered since I basically spent 4 hours creating concrete connections between 2 of the actual scum and randomly throwing in Clidd and Dann freaking out about a "what if" moment. I don't think I ever feared Hectic because his reads had enough accuracy, I couldn't really weave him into any sensible teams even when I tried lol.
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Post Post #1659 (isolation #131) » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:45 pm

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I tried to find a past game with town being heavened round 1 to see how they approached it to see if that would help me out.
The only game I found involved someone voting RC for being RC lol.

Not sure how I feel about balance of this setup, looking back I saw scum win it but it feels town sided especially for the current quality of play on site.
The scum wins I found were back from a time I don't consider towns to be as good as they are nowadays.
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Post Post #1668 (isolation #132) » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:33 pm

Post by Hayasaka »

In post 1667, Isis wrote:Not sure why you would expect it to? It's still a 2:1 ratio of town to scum.
I know there's the "towns throw larges" thesis but it seems weak in comparison to plenty of test info about this ratio and how strong town's advantages look on paper.
Is there something else I'm missing?
- Town win if they achieve send 4 scum hells.
- Scum win if they send 3 to heaven or win a judgement day.
- After sending a 3rd scum to Hell the game will no longer have heaven phases.

Do you think that would be enough?

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