Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[word321]

dnt be so grumpy

[word321]

I like hoopla

[word321]

I dnt like DrDolittle a.k.a. Doc from now on
VOTE: DrDolittle

[word321]

on a side note, I disagree with Hooplas conclusion given the data avaible

[word321]

To ascertain Mafia goes for higher numbers more likely we must first compare if their apparent efficiency fits with the efficiency of simply knowing their other numbers only, and not due to choosing higher numbers

[word321]

Theres also the possibility of mafia giving heterogeneous numbers on different number of games, but consistently trying to get at least one high
So we could have situations when most towns can go for 4/5/6s, few towns go 1/2/3, few towns go 13 and Mafia always goes 1/5/13 or shenanigans like that

[word321]

But it is important and relevant that mafia gets higher prs more consistently, that I agree

[word321]

not that their more likely to choose low numbers

[word321]

Specially considering scum is also interested in killing the high Town picks; so what remains can be indeed indicative of scum
OC, none of this can be applyed by itself

[word321]

whats ur intention voting Iamusername?

[word321]

mafia getting higher places on the pick is different that going for higher numbers
it was a commentary either way

[word321]

Im not doubting they dnt get higher places, Im doubting that the particular

Numbers

they pick are higher, cause they can coordinately pick a wide range of numbers; NO town can pick 1 and get away with it if mafia always pick 1, therefore it is less likely that town with high numbers will get good roles if they can be "blocked" for example, while mafia gets both the chance of getting away with it and at least decent roles if they also pick a safe alternative for someone else, like a high number

[word321]

heyya datisi, long time no see

[word321]

I want motivation of vote
if it was for pressure, it wasnt followed by no direct confrontation to the slot for more content

[word321]

The timestamps also indicate that it was highly reactive in nature, in the sense that he voted based on a single interaction without waiting for the particular follow uo

[word321]

so I think he saw iamusername's entrance, found it particularly scummy for some reason or requiring more content, all of wich a priori is nonindicative, but hasnt given a follow up more than a vote; either way, some content from that slot would be nice

[word321]

it gets worse;

draft numbers selected by 42 scum across 14 games;

1 - xxxxxxxx
2 - xxx
3 - xxx
4 - xxxx
5 - xxxx
6 - xxxx
7 - x
8 - xxx
9 - x
10 - xx
11 - x
12 - x
13 - x
15 - x
20 - x
22 - x
42 - xx
413 - x

Again, 1 in particular denies town any single 1s, wich I may partially agree, but there is no evidence that the rest of it is incompatible with town

[word321]

lets better move out from theory wise then

[word321]

not quite true, i was the backup of 2019

but yeah, been a minute. got any hot takes for me?

I do get that u probably have a dependency of caffeine
I didnt get any weird vibes from the slot, so I give3 it a null for now

[word321]

yup
I read "got any hot takes on me?" instead of "for me" by mistake

[word321]

he caught my attention with the vote, and he was closer in time, and he needed more content
theres no real reason as to why him and not anyone else

[word321]

no, dnt rly have other hot takes

[word321]

but I am interested on urs
if u have any takes, do share em by all means

[word321]

whats the point on gypyxs wagon?

[word321]

I also liked 210
and henceforth, 212 for thinking the same way

[word321]

doc aint scum with hoopla

[word321]

u dnt question de validity of a scum partners data like in 265, specially if said data favours ur hypothetical play

[word321]

I dnt like DrDolittle a.k.a. Doc from now on
VOTE: DrDolittle

This is a fairly poor choice imo
is it a scummy choice? meh

dnt bully me sempai~

[word321]

na
Im rly bad at making pushes, that much is truth

[word321]

The argument u propose is either based on Hoopla's conciously taking a suboptimal route of play she aknowledges as, wich involves sacrificing prs from scum to town so that u could get some lil capital in the wifom department

[word321]

I dnt have that much experience, but Ive never found that wifoms r that much worth it as scum; some of em have failed miserably despite working on paper a lot of times

[word321]

involves sacrificing prs

prove this statement

The game works with a ranking
Getting 2 scum with the same number involves giving up ur rank position to every town that is above u
henceforth, severily crippling the capabilities of scum picking prs, nd severely boosting towns

[word321]

every town with a nonduplicate digit, involving shenanigans like 784*

[word321]

Either way, from scum or town, I think effort wise Hoopla is definitely inclined to town, and my hoghest tl; the point was that scum can cast the same argument without the enormous effort (and possibly fun) of revolecting and analysing data, wich is more likely of someone who wants to genuinely look for tips on where scum is

[word321]

if you were right, which you are not, every scum would pick numbers like 3948 23093 2989478 to guarantee PR picks. Which obviously they are not.

Given that the worst said she also would encourage 2 ppl going for the same digits, it seems that ppl would

try the idea

at least; but the point was not that scum would aim to get middle rank prs; i dnt see ur point on why scum would only want to go for high numbers. There is a tangent benefit on going for a 1 for example; u can get a high PR OR u can bounce a town from getting one, but there is literally no benefit in scum to make scum bounce among themselves, only to bounce with town, and maybe set it up so at leas 1 can get a pr

wich was my main original point, scum dsnt necessarily just pick a low number, as as a team they could a for a high one too, and since high numbers have higher dispertion, it would be poorly reflected in stadistics; i do find basis on them getting less intersections

[word321]

and Ill stop with theory for now

[word321]

I still dnt like u doc
U just changed ur point from "hoopla may be wifoming us with the theory hence NAI" to "Hoopla is used flawed theory and hasnt aknowledge it, hence nai"

[word321]

word is english your first language or is it a romance language?

Romance
Im natuve to both portuguese and spanish to be more specific
I make a LOT of grammar mostakes of all kinds

[word321]

I dnt think hooplas theories r as relevant as the effort and henceforth what it says on her alignment

[word321]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

why do I not fit in the list?

[word321]

I've almost never been told that my mechanics discussion is a good contribution to the game.

I have, however, been told that it's a distraction and a waste of time. Frequently.

Thats a shame to hear; some ppl like more mechanic play than others. The main point tho is that everyone can discuss mechanics-its considerably easy to do as both scum and town- henceforth, an easy way to scum to seem engaged, wich on the other hand causes a lot of paranoia on ppl who mainly do that, cause they r "avoiding" more AI kinds of playstyle; this is generaly true to anything overly rational (as in based in simple, demostrable arguments of a deterministic kind, like probabilities)

[word321]

hmmm
the worst actively ascended to a tl for me

[word321]

I was actually in the fence with bot Datisi and her, nad also gutread Ico as scum in general
But I didnt like neither Datisis Traingle nor his posts in general, nor the recent change to Gypyx
Also,

Numbers

VOTE: Datisi

[word321]

numbers, as there is further support from u picking in particular 1 for the draft, wich I wont talk about further

[word321]

for the focus on lhf; both gypyx and username fill the role to some degree. The only scumlean I actually ackowledge to some point is umlaut, in the sense that it is not as easy to push in ur triangle.
On the other hand, gypyx has shown to be generally unresponsive, or at least pushed against the wall, as with time and content. I dnt think that is particularly scum indicative by itself, without resting actual merit to the possibility of scum; but what I find worse in that, is the focus on said slot

[word321]

username i kinda get the feeling that he's trying to avoid looking fake-busy (if that makes sense) but in turn i have almost no idea what his thoughts on the game are and his "pushes" so far just feel weirdly nitpicky and bad vibes all around.

gypyx started Not Good and now he's dissapeared and idk.

This seems to server ur main explanation to 2 of ur 3 most scumreads among ur triangle; u virtually have only switched ur vote from Gypyx for umlaut when he was absent enough and switched back as soon as he was "back" with no activity (wich still is virtually the same situation as not contributive to the game state in general), most of ur early questions have been dispersed and informative (as in specifying information, not much as with alignment intetnion begind from my perceptionn). That would kind of resume what I think makes me have the gut feeling that u r more scum than town.

[word321]

and focus as in votes and active scumlist more than focus in gamestyle

[word321]

Green Crayons

whats ur take on GCr?

[word321]

wahts ur take on Dats umlaut?

[word321]

Im actually with umlaut on this one regarding marquis

[word321]

wahts ur take on Dats umlaut?

Probably town. Probably. I guess.

how, from 2 random questions without prior context, and no other kind of input on the thread arrived at that conclusion?

[word321]

VOTE: Umlaut

[word321]

im here btw, and will answer the questions in short notice

[word321]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

[word321]

Ive actually liked the idea of umlaut for scum before; so somethin among those lines, still be on Datisi, or a wagon to place pressure

[word321]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

Why is tw obsessed with how others view me?

I dnt know bout tw, I asked for u on doc cause he never justified ur position on his list

[word321]

if u have any more, feel free to ask; just let me answer on another game first

Whose your current town clique?

the worst, hoopla, grumpy cat; Im not certain on ebi thaaaaaat much

[word321]

tbh, ive also tld u GC, but I did the exact same thing on 790 and u were scum, so Im not confident on that one

[word321]

I havent rly liked tws initial game, its her later game what defined the tr
in particularher list has been pretty close on some slots

[word321]

tld=townleaned, the conjugation of townlean

[word321]

Ive actually heard a lot of similar opinions, and that hoopla relies heavily on mech style and all that;
but I think what does it is that the

way

she analyzed the data and the delivery of information felt pretty townie, more than the existance of said analysis; the data "bleeds" this town vibe so to speak; I may be wrong for that.
The rest of her game has ibeen somewhat nai

[word321]

ill be on

VLA till monday

I will check the thread till tonight (UTC-4) tho

[word321]

I am
BAAAAAAAAACK

[word321]

NO MORE NUMBERS THIS GAME IS A GAME BASED ON LOVE AND FEELINGS

Numbers dnt lie, unlike ur love and feelings for us </3

[word321]

Oh I forgot I said that! Uh, I first was curious and wanted to wagon DrD because I remember someone defending him because of his slot on the listing and wanted to see if someone would use that to defend a partner, but I didn't really have much more to go off of so that's probably why I forgot.

I think this is a hard to fake and consistent reasons for a vote

[word321]

I still dislike this but it might just be my style of play then anything. I don't plan on hammering though!

This reads phony to me.

It seems like you're taking a position against the Marquis wagon but not one that would actually dissuade anyone from hammering it.

Yes that is because it's exactly what I'm doing. What's wrong with that?

If you think Marquis is scum there's no reason to be against the wagon.

If you think they're town you should try and push a better elim candidate.

If you have no idea you should try to get an idea.

Just "registering your objection" is what scum does with wagons on town that they expect to go through with or without their support.

This on the other hand feels artifitial, cause it is based on optimal play; I feel town is more inclined to take this kind of positions that scum EXACTLY bc scum is more concious against taking such positions

[word321]

In particular, I think umlaut is could be pushing something he thinks is good to push by textbook standards

[word321]

So im still nice n cozy on umlauts wagon

[word321]

Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?
Particularly, I find a PGO way more townie, but that may be only my opinion and not alignment indicative by itself; but there r so many variables with scum prs in general and the raw odds of actually hitting town with that one shot its not even funny, even if we dnt consider the possibility of scum

[word321]

Even if the kill dsnt land on the objective, there is

still

the possibility of "simply blaming the redirector"

[word321]

So unless we r on the scenario that it lands exactly on a scum and scum dsnt have or dsnt want to use the redirector, every single other one is useless

[word321]

I dnt know why scum would lie on that situation either, and I dnt know about how to feel about simply giving it a night to take the shot (or recieve the shot)

[word321]

I genuinely think it is less EV for town

[word321]

VOTE: A50

[word321]

Then, we have word321, as I'm sure we're all aware, the 3rd spot of a wagon is the one most often occupied by scum. This is 80% scum if Almost50 is town.

Let me say this:
HA

[word321]

Hoopla, I was your biggest fan and will never forget you. That kill surely implies a scummo in the top 3.

Umlaut didn't vote his counterwagon of Marquis (scum) until it was L-2 and there was no alternative. Then, later on, he pushed Gypyx over Almo. Starting here.

VOTE: Umlaut

This is exactly what I was thinking
I hardly doubt Datisi is scum given that he also drawed 1

[word321]

VOTE: Umlaut

[word321]

So:
-From 4 first picks of the game, the 1st AND 3rd decided both it was a good idea to pick one of universal backup or rolecop as a +EV for town instead of a cop or other "shenanigan" like that: I think there r rly high probabilities one of em is scum and one aint.
-Furthermore, scum DID pick 1-vig, and it is obvious that no 2 scums would go for the same pair. If we believe that there is scum in the first 3 picks and it wasnt only marqis, THERE NECESSARILY IS a scum favouring role among Doc, Umlau, and S_S.

Im A-ok sending doc to the gallows just for his role tbh.
VOTE: Doc

[word321]

tbh untill ppl began talkin about how it would be horrible for gypyx to do that as scum and that gypyx is not the kind of guy to throw a game I almost

hammered

him

[word321]

but those kind of opinions made me recapacitate, and it is quite clear for me that gypyx was a counterwagon

[word321]

I honsetly dnt know why ppl r hammering on that so much

[word321]

(sry for the word; "hammering" as in "repeatedly striking the naill", not to place the last vote)

[word321]

when said thought process is unusual for town, and 2 allegedly town players have the same when they have the first picks of the games, well, let me doubt of at least one of em

[word321]

2 allegedly town players with the possibility of having the 1st and 3rd picks of the game choosing to pick universal backup (and while I can somewhat agree with the rolecop serving something, I still highly believe usual cop is way better for all intents and purpose, simply cause TOWN WILL NEVER LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE) is simply the least likely choice on my eyes

[word321]

Im actually only on u doc cause u were the first one to pick
Id believe u more if u tried that as the 3rd or 4th pick tbh

[word321]

I believe that there is a ascum in umlaut and doc
And i believe that for now, doc is the scummier one given circumstances relatively to umlaut

[word321]

At the end of the day tho Im willing to go for both

[word321]

U can ask urself what is the priority roles scum would pick first place
If it aint 1 shot vig, u have ur answer
Pedit: ok

[word321]

Oh, GG everyone! Sry for dropping from this; I was busy IRL
I dnt think it affected the development either way
Ya know, when Gypyx flipped red I actually felt somewhat bad for not noticing, and pushing for doc, but it seems I was right all along

[word321]

i thought the no kill was pretty good play, but it was foiled by dats checking word sigh

Im too scum for this to work HAHA