Open 219: Neighborhood Watch (Game Over)


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Post Post #24 (isolation #0) » Mon May 17, 2010 4:00 am

Post by OpposedForce »

don_johnson wrote:did anyone notice we've already lost a town powerole?

maybe rvs should end here and now.

vote: sleepless assasin


for the obvious reasons of trying to pack in an FoS on his scumbuddy(i'm looking at you confid), a bandwagon vote(primate), a lame attempt at buddying me, and an AtE(smilie) all in one tiny post.

discuss.
Im pretty sure most of the players have noticed that a town role has been killed.

Vote:Primate
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Post Post #25 (isolation #1) » Mon May 17, 2010 4:02 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Vote Count
Sleepless Assassin (1) - don_johnson
Chronopie (2) - Beloved Princess, Empking
Beloved Princess (1) - guy0
don_johnson (2) - ConfidAnon, Thief
Primate (
3
) - Chronopie, Sleepless Assassin, OpposedForce
Thief (1) - Primate

Not Voting (1) - Pomegranate

With
11
players alive, it takes
6
votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is
Monday, May 31, 2010 at 8:00:00 PM CDT
.
If no player is lynched by that time, a no lynch will occur.

don_johnson wrote:did anyone notice we've already lost a town powerole?

maybe rvs should end here and now.

vote: sleepless assasin


for the obvious reasons of trying to pack in an FoS on his scumbuddy(i'm looking at you confid), a bandwagon vote(primate), a lame attempt at buddying me, and an AtE(smilie) all in one tiny post.

discuss.
Im pretty sure most of the players have noticed that a town role has been killed.

Vote:Primate
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Post Post #47 (isolation #2) » Tue May 18, 2010 1:00 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Unvote: Primate
Vote:Beloved Princess


I agree with hider not claiming for the stated above reasons because there is a chance of 2/10 of actually hitting scum (excluding the hider himself). At Day 1 it's not an optimal strategy because the chances are slim and it could lead to a disadvantage going into Day 2.

However the hider claiming at Day 2 or 3 might work out depending how the day and night play out. The hider claim should be kept open for a possible move later on but I believe day 1 would not be the best option.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #3) » Wed May 19, 2010 4:45 am

Post by OpposedForce »

don_johnson wrote:
OpposedForce wrote:]
I agree with hider not claiming for the stated above reasons because there is a chance of 2/10 of actually hitting scum (excluding the hider himself).
actually, 11 players alive, 10 after the lynch.

scum lynch: 2/9 chance of hider dieing with no benefit.

town lynch: 3/9 chance of hider dieing with no benefit.

but i'm not going to argue this anymore. the watchers do add a variable which i can't calculate. let's get some more SA votes.

guy0: how's that "moving the discussion forward" thing workin' out for ya?
That was my mistake, I miscounted the number of players. But I still think that it would be a better strategy going into Day 2 because Day 1's lynch would provide alot more information for the next day. Also if there were to be a town or scum lynch the chances of the hider dying wouldn't be 2/9 to 3/9. It would be 3/9 to 4/9 simply because if the hider hides behind someone who is targeted they die along with the target so the chance of being killed is increased thus why hider claim would not be good Day 1 but better Day 2.
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Unvote:
Vote: OpposedForce


This guy's not getting enough attention. Weak seemingly random vote on Princess also.
K

Don't like the Pomegranate votes.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #4) » Thu May 20, 2010 12:20 am

Post by OpposedForce »

OpposedForce wrote: Don't like the Pomegranate votes.
Why?
Because the bandwagon is crap.
Sleepless Assassin wrote:
don_johnson wrote:
for the obvious reasons of trying to pack in an FoS on his scumbuddy(i'm looking at you confid), a bandwagon vote(primate), a lame attempt at buddying me, and an AtE(smilie) all in one tiny post.


-Scum aren't the only ones who ever FoS, obviously.
-bandwagoning in the RVS is NOT a bad thing.
-Not buddying. Just recognized your name and Confid's
-I always post a smiley at the beginning of a game. Usually it's when I confirm, but we did that by PMing the mod so couldn't do it that way.
guy0 wrote:It is unfortunate that one of the more valuable town power roles was killed by pure chance, but I don't think we should be hasty as a result of it.

Yes the deadline is relatively soon, but we shouldn't sacrifice being thorough as a result of it, let's just do what we can.

Unvote
Wow, this sounds so forced.
don_johnson wrote:okay. don't freak out. but.

at some point before the end of the day our hider should claim. DO NOT CLAIM YET. it is my understanding of the role that hider dies if they hide behind scum, no? so better to be out in the open and verbalizing targets. agree/disagree?
No. At most, we hypoclaim. For example, everyone says "if I'm a hider, I hid behind XXXXX last night and will hide behind XXXXX tonight." That's what we did last time I played this setup.
Pomegranate wrote: Agree. It's definitely best if we know the hider's target. We can confirm townies and scum. It's worth it in this setup, when we know that there's a hider. I've been Hider before, and this makes sense.

I think I'd vote Primate if he wasn't the largest BW at this point. Maybe soon.
Unvote, Vote Pomegranate


First of all, love how you jump all over the idea of giving up our power role like that.

Second, why not vote Primate? Afraid of looking like a scummy wagoner? Massive scum tell right here.
Pomegranate wrote:Seeing these arguments, I'm swayed. Sorry dj.
lol that's because people are arguing against it and you don't want to look scummy.

So the scum are Pom, guy, and Primate. Cool, we'll win this pretty quickly.
You accuse Pomegranate of "jumping all over" the power role strategy when other people had showed support for it previously then said statement. What's different from other support posts? Secondly he already explained why he didn't want to vote Primate, the bandwagon was too large.

Also why so brash in trying to get someone to vote on a bandwagon? Enthusiastic to quick lynch while at the same time accusing a player of being scum for not voting on it.

Unvote: Beloved Princess
Vote: Sleepless Assassin
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Post Post #76 (isolation #5) » Thu May 20, 2010 2:58 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Thief wrote:
K

Don't like the Pomegranate votes
K

Do you still like your BP vote? Why?
To answer your question and your previous suspicion (if you like to call it that) I voted BP mainly because she/he has not contirubuted much into conversation while contiuning to actively lurk.

So yes, I felt satisified with my vote on BP.
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Post Post #133 (isolation #6) » Mon May 24, 2010 4:04 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Unvote: SA
Vote:Chrono


All aboard!

And as you all know hider should not claim in this given Day. Thank you.
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Post Post #134 (isolation #7) » Mon May 24, 2010 4:11 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Primate wrote:Update on my opinions. Happy with vote on pm atm, looking at BP with interest. Chronopie did something that i would normally consider a towntell (bandwagon pushing for claim implying confidence and willingness to deal with attention on self), but I don't really think that's the full story in terms of mindset there at all given other considerations.
Chrono wrote:This is a fairly common pressure vote reason. null-tell.
That seems to be the only reason you did it though. Do you frequently pressure vote to bring people to -1 and claim in the way you did or did you also have other reasons for voting guy? Seeing as how you refer to it as a pressure vote, do you consider that mentally distinct from a lynch vote?
That's quite the strech. You believe that he L-1 voted to implicate confidence in his beliefs and the williningness to take the heat for it.

Mind you now folks that Chrono didn't even state any suspicion or comments regarding Guy0 BEFORE he placed his L-1 vote. Yeah he sure showed alot of confidence in that vote because he sure said alot of stuff to back it up.


Stop trying to protect your scum buddy and trying to bring him to a better light.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #8) » Mon May 24, 2010 4:26 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Edit- Meant to say Stretch not "strech"
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Post Post #147 (isolation #9) » Tue May 25, 2010 3:11 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Primate wrote:
guy0 wrote:
Primate wrote:I didn't say it was intentional. Bandwagonning recklessly with little reason is a town tell because it's so easy to get negative attention on you for little benefit that scum who know what they are generally avoid it. I don't remotely believe he did it as a signal, just that he did it and that's what I read into it. And it doesn't imply confidence in the vote, it implies confidence in your position in the game and willingness to defend yourself against arguments people may put on you for pressure votes and bandwagonning that is done with a town motive. Get what I mean there?

And yeah, I don't like how sure he's saying he was and the things he's saying he was sure about given context.
Yes, but this is also a huge WIFOM
No it isn't.

You can't ignore towntells just because the guy *might* have been faking them with no reasoning as to why you might think he would been doing so.

Wifoms just a joke anyway. Three levels is the most I've seen and that was a crazy game, one or no levels is most common, if you put the time in, that shits doable. All it is is trying to guess someones intentions when they made a post, it's no harder than reading a normal post. That is unless they phrase it in a way to invoke true wifom and no-one ever does that unless they're taking the piss or a real newb.
This is WIFOM. You're stating that people who recklessly vote on bandwagons is a town tell because they don't care if attention is drawn on them while on the other hand scum won't pull a move like that because they don't want attention drawn to them. Scum can easily pull the same move to fit this criteria of thinking which leads to a WIFOM arguement because it leads to what scum does and doesn't do.
Primate wrote:Just meta'd Chrono. More in line with scum play than town. hm.
Convenient.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #10) » Tue May 25, 2010 3:12 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Primate wrote:
guy0 wrote:
Primate wrote:I didn't say it was intentional. Bandwagonning recklessly with little reason is a town tell because it's so easy to get negative attention on you for little benefit that scum who know what they are generally avoid it. I don't remotely believe he did it as a signal, just that he did it and that's what I read into it. And it doesn't imply confidence in the vote, it implies confidence in your position in the game and willingness to defend yourself against arguments people may put on you for pressure votes and bandwagonning that is done with a town motive. Get what I mean there?

And yeah, I don't like how sure he's saying he was and the things he's saying he was sure about given context.
Yes, but this is also a huge WIFOM
No it isn't.

You can't ignore towntells just because the guy *might* have been faking them with no reasoning as to why you might think he would been doing so.

Wifoms just a joke anyway. Three levels is the most I've seen and that was a crazy game, one or no levels is most common, if you put the time in, that shits doable. All it is is trying to guess someones intentions when they made a post, it's no harder than reading a normal post. That is unless they phrase it in a way to invoke true wifom and no-one ever does that unless they're taking the piss or a real newb.
This is WIFOM. You're stating that people who recklessly vote on bandwagons is a town tell because they don't care if attention is drawn on them while on the other hand scum won't pull a move like that because they don't want attention drawn to them. Scum can easily pull the same move to fit this criteria of thinking which leads to a WIFOM arguement because it leads to what scum does and doesn't do.
Primate wrote:Just meta'd Chrono. More in line with scum play than town. hm.
Convenient.
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Post Post #149 (isolation #11) » Tue May 25, 2010 4:06 am

Post by OpposedForce »

My apologies, mod can you please delete my double post. Thanks in advance.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #12) » Tue May 25, 2010 6:49 am

Post by OpposedForce »

Yep way to go SA. Just lynch without any hesitiation or response from Chrono. Great town play. Guys if I die tonight go after SA next day. Kthanxbai.
Primate wrote:@Opposed.
Yes, he could be Scum faking town confidence, but that doesn't mean that the tell is invalid, what it means is that I misread the smaller parts of the tell that tell me whether he is scum faking town or town.

Also, you need to reread me if you think at any point I have had a position other than "I am suspicious of Chrono but I have doubts".

Anyway, now we'll know.

PS: The site is horrible at the minute, isn't it?
I don't think the post was a tell at all as a matter of fact. His vote on Guy didn't contain any reasoning on his vote or information so to state that he showed confidence by action whether scum or town is null because it can go either way. I voted him simply because he jumped onto a bandwagon without any basis which was my initial vote based on. However his bandwagon went to fast with Pom quickly putting a L-1 on him and SA putting the hammer. Chrono did not get a chance to respond properly and his bandwagon was rushed to a lynch in a matter of a few posts.

It's interesting to note how the last two voters (Pom and SA) were quick to jump onto the wagon. These are my canidates of scum at this point. At first I did not like the basis of the Pom wagon because there was no strong backing to it but following her post of basically repeating what I had said and others had said namely this post:
Pomegranate wrote:
OpposedForce wrote:
Primate wrote:Update on my opinions. Happy with vote on pm atm, looking at BP with interest. Chronopie did something that i would normally consider a towntell (bandwagon pushing for claim implying confidence and willingness to deal with attention on self), but I don't really think that's the full story in terms of mindset there at all given other considerations.
Chrono wrote:This is a fairly common pressure vote reason. null-tell.
That seems to be the only reason you did it though. Do you frequently pressure vote to bring people to -1 and claim in the way you did or did you also have other reasons for voting guy? Seeing as how you refer to it as a pressure vote, do you consider that mentally distinct from a lynch vote?
That's quite the strech. You believe that he L-1 voted to implicate confidence in his beliefs and the williningness to take the heat for it.

Mind you now folks that Chrono didn't even state any suspicion or comments regarding Guy0 BEFORE he placed his L-1 vote. Yeah he sure showed alot of confidence in that vote because he sure said alot of stuff to back it up.


Stop trying to protect your scum buddy and trying to bring him to a better light.
I also find what Chrono did extremely scummy. Early BWs don't usually lead to lynches, and in this case, placing him at L-1, was scummy, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE ALL THE EXPLANATION THAT CAME WITH CHRONOS' VOTE WAS "Now's claiming time.". HUH/

He put Guy at L-1 and requested a claim, despite the fact that this was his first mention of the wagon, let alone his first opinion
.
This was soon followed by a L-1 vote without a proper response by Chrono. Soon after SA put the hammer vote without any waiting or reasoning.

Scum:
Pomegranate
SA

Neutral:
Empking
ConfidAnon
BP

Likely Town:
Primate
don_johnson

Town:
Thief
Guy_0
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