Open 332: Tainted Love - Over!

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sure fine by us

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Hi everyone. Just to let you know, this is a hydra account.

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Of 1 obscure scummer and 1 newbie to mafiascum who is a friend of the said scummer.

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The obscure scummer is darkdude. The other head has no previous accounts.

Now tell me why not revealing would be anti-town.

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Not revealing heads means you are trying to hide meta, and is a generally frowned upon act. Engaging in any act that is generally frowned upon causes people to focus all of their attention on YOU and why you won't do something instead of scumhunting and it could wind up getting you policy lynched.

Yes, I considered those reasons. But there are no other reasons? I'm disappointed.

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Hi, I'm handing out FREE PRIORS so everyone take them and keep them in mind!

Chance of your lover being scum: 33.333%
Chance of killing scum if you lynch randomly outside of your own pair: 55.555%

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He said that it was a serious vote in the very post.

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Glowball, did you only think to ask me to reveal after I posted

Hi everyone. Just to let you know, this is a hydra account.

?

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Glowball, did you only think to ask me to reveal after I posted

Hi everyone. Just to let you know, this is a hydra account.

?

Yes and no, you reminded me that I saw it in the sign up thread.

Why did you not press for my reveal in the sign up thread then?

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SleepKrew,what are voting for?we haven't even massclaimed yet, why not wait till all the lovers are revealed then vote?

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SleepKrew,what are voting for?we haven't even massclaimed yet, why not wait till all the lovers are revealed then vote?

Why did you wait so long to ask this?

It took me this long cause I am a newb.

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Hi, this is oldhead AKA "Children's Card Games" AKA "CCG".

Newbhead will be henceforth named "Money".

Posts so far in Iso numbers:

0: Money
1-8: Children's Card Games
9-10: Money

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This is CCG.

Yeah, I do not see the point of secret day talk for the moment.

Oh yeah the question: I find glowball to be 33% likely to be mafia, i.e. nothing observed has changed the prior yet.

And I just checked with Money - we are in agreement on this.

Glowball, your answer of 5/10 means that you think we are 50% likely to be scum, or that there's no evidence either way?

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Glowball, I don't have anything that I need to say in private at the moment. If you do, go ahead. I'm not disapproving the use of the QT. I'm merely not using it at the moment.

The only thing I think it is good for is for retaining information. Revealing to your lover means you reveal to scum 33% of the time, whereas post in public is 100%. And of course the former number can change based on observation.

On a scale of 1-10 you are a 5, which is what I said. 5- meaning in the middle

I want to be sure what "middle" means. Does it mean "my estimate of your scum likelihood didn't change since the start of the game"? Or does it mean "you are 50% likely to be scum"? If it is the latter, then it means you have observed evidence of me being scum enough to raise it to 50% from the prior 33%.

Seriously, Bayes Theorem should be used more commonly in mafia.

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Oh and what is coaching?

-CCG

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I, CCG, am the old one.

I heard the term before but must have forgot. Sorry for asking

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(btw it wasn't on wiki so...)

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Looks to me Sleepy is simply illogical. I guess I'd have to do a meta check to see if this is likely tunneling or scum.

I have some gut feelings against someone, but I'd like to see posts from all the players first. If I'm correct, 3 haven't even posted yet.

(to clarify, I have some weak suspicions which I think would be better temporarily withheld so as to not influence the other players)

On second thought, this would be a good use of the QT. I'll note it down there so you know I'm not just making up things afterwards.

-CCG

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Mind pasting what princess posted in that QT, then?

VOTE: princesskdw

-Children's Card Games

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I don't see anything in the rules against C&P, but I sent a PM to Papa anyways.

-Children's Card Games

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Papa Zito confirmed that quoting posts of players from the QT is acceptable. It is only forbidden to quote the mod.

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I've read up to this point, and Kondi's proposal of pointing out the more likely town pair seems like a good strategy. Optimal play would have us lynch in order of scumminess anyways, but it's something that should be kept in mind.

This hydra will make some more substantial posts (with our town-likely pair, etc) after we do some deliberating. This is supposed to be a learning opportunity for Money, the newb-head.

Glowball and Sleepy should stop with the ad-hominems if they want to be pro-town. It's just noise obstructing any potential signals of alignment. For the record, "you are 15" is not a valid point, and would surely be as repugnant as "you are [insert racial demographic here]" if our current culture is not so accustomed to turning a blind eye to ageism.

And as was pointed out, it is especially ridiculous so say this when you yourself are 19. So for this game and in general, just stop. Play CARD GAMES (ON MOTORCYCLES?!) instead.

-Children's Card Games.

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Actually on second thought, Kondi's proposal isn't really useful at all - in the sense that trying to leave the most town pair alive to the end is exactly the same as trying to lynch the scum first.

The way that he actually phrases the strategy makes the suggestion that lynch order is not important once we have agreed on a single town-town pair. Whether intentional or not, this might inspire laziness in scumhunting. Lynching in order of scumminess is for sure the optimal play. Also, by deciding a pair that's likely to be town-town, we would subconsciously be more biased to sticking to that decision; this is a well known cognitive bias. This would make it less optimal than if we were to make this decision later down the road, i.e. at Lynch-or-Lose.

So, either: Kondi made a considerably suboptimal suggestion, or his scum motivation caused him to post that with the hope of sabotaging the town.

Unfortunately it is much more likely to be the former, meaning this observation was null.

Oh well.

-Children's Card Games.

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(It should say "mostly null". It is slightly scummy.)

-CCG

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Why would you end the day so quickly?

tclawren isn't back yet, I'd like to see some more substance from him.

I want some time to converse with Money.

I voted for Princess as pressure, and I'm not ready to have her hammered. At the very least bviogt needs to copy & paste their QT before they die.

UNVOTE: princesskdw

And, since the Mod just posted as I'm previewing this, we definitely should wait for glowball's replacement before doing something irreversible.

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Oh and when you post the QT, include timestamps please.

(might be easy to just take screenshots and upload them)

-Children's Card Games

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Tclawren, please elaborate, in your own words, why Princess is likely to be scum.

Kondi, you said Princess was town in your 2nd post in the game (when she already was under fire for the whole QT posting thing). What made you change your stance to think that she's scummy?

VOTE: kondi2424

-Children's Card Games

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Here's another prior that I just calculated: any single given player other than yourself and your lover has 27.777% chance of being scum.

I'd say that given his posts, Kondi has 10%-45% chance of being scum, with 95% certainty.

I'd be okay with lynching him any time now (unless he gives some reason to re-evaluate the evidence against him, of course).

-Children's Card Games

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I don't see much noteworthy content in the last few pages. People need to take votes off of Princess and put them on Kondi. The reason has been provided and the tells are already there.

bvoigt, you think your partner is more likely to be scum than Kondi?

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I just read up to the part where Kondi self hammered.

GHOST POST THE QT. NOW.

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Uh, it still surprises me that Ghost did

not

think of posting the QT the moment he saw Kondi's self-hammer.

Anyways,

It looks like the scum...

...JUST GOT SCREWED!!!

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You should not be making that decision. Post it.

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Whoops didn't see the post on the last page.

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VOTE: SleepyKrew

I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be tclawren, either. Doesn't make a difference in procedure though.

Nighty night scum. Look upon my obscene amount of wealth and despair.

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I think that basically amounts to no evidence for either alignment.

Can we get people's suspects please?

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STT, still waiting on why you're voting me.

Your play just before kondi was lynched makes you most likely to be his partner.

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@STT: How likely would you say SleepyKrew is to be scum? This is mostly for comparison purposes.

My estimate of SleepyKrew's likelihood of being scum:

40%-70%, with 66% confidence.

Meaning (as some of you have asked what this means) that I expect in a hypothetical experiment where large amounts of games are sampled in which SleepyKrew behaves as he has done in this game, he would flip scum at a rate somewhere between 40% and 70%, 66% of the time.

I'm using these numbers to try to be as precise as possible when conveying my estimates. "Scummy", "extremely scummy", "definitely scum", etc are too imprecise for my tastes.

I agree that my previous posts with these estimates have too vague a range. That was because I tried to not be overconfident with a 95% confidence interval. Then I realized it may be more informative to give a smaller confidence interval. So this time I'm giving a 2/3 confidence interval.

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And looking back, I probably was too overconfident in my previous estimate of Kondi. Yeah, I'm not going to do 95% estimates anymore.

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I already posted the reason. I already meta'd you by skimming through Isos of your recent games I could find for about 15 minutes. I don't think it matters much.

Bvoigt and Herodotus post your suspects please. Even if it's tentative.

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@bvoigt

@STT: When you did the same thing with Kondi, the percentage overall was much lower. Why?

I have more information now than I did Day 1. The evidence I am considering has more weight to them now that I know Kondi was scum, therefore they can shift the prior probability of Sleepy being scum more.

I dared not to stray too far from the prior probability (27.7%) in Kondi's case. I was and still am trying to not be overconfident in my estimates.

Anyways bvoigt, you should seriously reconsider your read on Princess. All I see are newbtells. Nothing significant alignment-wise. Compare that to Sleepy. He's definitely more likely to be scum.

Unless, something significant in your QT (since your last copy & paste) is causing you to read scum on her. If you are confident this is the case you should post the QT. Otherwise leave it for backup and reveal only in LyLo (I'm assuming you had a reason to ask her questions privately instead of in thread).

@Sleepy

I don't see a need to further qualify that reason. Anyone looking for scum should know what I'm talking about. If I'm wrong and the majority of players don't understand why I find Sleepy scummy, then they should be the ones to ask. I'm not going to indulge in explaining details to the likely scum who I'm voting for.

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Also bvoigt, I don't agree with you giving tclawren a town-pass just based on the vote. Even if it is a town-tell, which I don't think it is in any meaningful sense, it can't be that significant of one.

The Sleepy-tclawren pair is the best lynch as of this moment, barring any private QT information that I'm not aware of.

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@STT: If you lynch my group and we both flip town who is your next target. (or to rephrase the question "who is your top suspect outside of myself and SK?")

Actually that's not necessarily the same question (my suspect list while expecting to lynch scum may be different than a revised list when it is revealed that I was wrong), though in most cases it would be similar.

Honestly I'm not even motivated to devote more time to scrutinizing bvoigt, Princess, and Herodotus' posts right now as I expect to lynch scum either in Sleepy or tclawren today. Doesn't mean I've not tried to read them, but rather that I've read everyone and I'm not feeling like going over those guys again when I don't think it's highly likely they'll be scum.

That will change, of course, if it turns out that one of them indeed has to be scum. If we do lynch Sleepy-tclawren today and turn out to mislynch, I'll have to do some calculations and rereading.

Another reason for not declaring a candidate now is to avoid trapping my mental processes by confirmation bias should the time come. Not the main reason but a reason nonetheless.

I think I see your motivation for asking me the question: you want to gauge how I will try to influence the game should the game continue after Sleepy gets lynched (and you die with him). Depending on my answer you may decide to advocate my lynch first instead, or warn others to lynch me should Sleepy turn out not to be scum.

But even considering this, I don't think it is optimal to give you an answer right now.

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VOTE: SleepyKrew

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lol you guys are cute
asdfasdfasdf jkjkjkl bcra frghc

+1 dead puppies

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So let me get this straight: you voted and then unvoted Sleepy because you genuinely thought he was cop? And now you're saying this fakeclaiming stunt makes him scummier than if he hadn't pulled the stunt, but that you won't put your vote back on at the moment?

Either you've made a error in your probability calculations or I've missed the part where some evidence shifted your estimates or some reassessment made it so that Sleepy no longer deserves your vote.

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I said why I unvoted at the bottom of the post in which I unvoted.

Without this explanation that post just looks like you unvoted because you believed his cop claim and wanted to know what days he investigated the players.

If you want my input on the thing that's "giving you pause", then it's that you give them too much credit. There is no evidence to suggest that every play they make is optimal.

Looks to me Kondi just gave up, and as self-hammering isn't that bad in regular games with Nights, he probably didn't give it much more thought. There are other possible reasons as well. Perhaps he did think of letting Sleepy hammer, but thought it would be too obvious. WIFOM.

Take all the scenarios you can think of, assign them probability distributions, and compare. When I did this, I found that Kondi's self-hammering isn't a strong indicator of anything. Thus leaving Sleepy still scummy.

Bvoigt's faulty reason for giving tclawren a disproportionately high town estimate is also fallaciously based on the idea that scum always play optimally, and that they also couldn't have been locked into suboptimal play by attempting an early soft-bus that turned into a serious wagon with bad timing.

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What's so funny?

Tell me!

("oh you'll find out...I'm about to summon it!")

But seriously, why the lol, Sleepy?

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LOL tclawren too desperate?

Tclawren scum likelihood goes up, Sleepy scum likelihood goes down (slightly, only due to tclawren, and he's still more likely to be scum than tclawren)

The scum likelihood for their pair as a whole goes up. Definitely best lynch today.

Bvoigt don't you hammer. If you truly believe she's scum and want to hammer, paste the updated version of the QT first and let everyone (well, mostly me and Herodotus at this point) talk about it. That's the least you could do. If you feel like doing more optimal plays though, vote for Sleepy. Lynch Sleepy-tclawren pair.

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By that I mean "talk about it with the potential to help town". And I'm not expecting much of that (though I'd like to be surprised) because:

1. You're likely to be scum.
2. You're already tunneling on Princess.

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Sleepy and tclawren, it looks like your lynch is imminent. Post full QT with timestamps please?

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Herodotus, I was just going to ask about post 7; you beat me to it.

But what is this bottom of page 2 you're talking about? I don't see where in the thread tclawren said Sleepy is town on page 2.

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gut. that's how I base most of my reads day 1, especially early game.

Your weak gut feeling caused you to say:

Thank god you're town.

That makes me feel, much, much, much better.

??

You now have about equal chance of being scum as Sleepy is.

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Herodotus, hammer time.

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Perfect victory for town
First town win for this setup
Screw the tells
I HAVE MONEY

GG

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Now let us make sweet hatred in our private QTs.

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Who would you have wanted lynched if Sleepy-Tclawren wasn't scum?

I would have lynched bvoigt-princess.