Open 387: Jungle Republic (Day 6 - ends in a Town Victory)

[Fat_Tony]

Hola amigos.

Ive some time today so I'll do a full read-through, and see what we can see from that. In the meantime, do lets not jump to a conclusion in hammering Slandaar? Thanks!

FT

[Fat_Tony]

The following shall be a VERY stream-of-consciousness summary of my readthrough - writing it as I go along. I'll highlight any questions I have in bold and green.

21 - Definitely can see Kondi's point in 23 re: Xfactorwolf. Need to keep an eye on that.
31 - Not keen on Slandaar trying to forcibly end RQS. Can't see an argument for it being antitown, and Slandaar sure as hell doesn't present one besides "filling the thread with junk". Can't say I agree, some of the questions certainly seem to have given interesting results. Defiitely can't see RQS being any worse than RVS.
36 - Go on then, explain why? Weird why Kondi didn't do that.
45 - I don't agree on vijay getting "major scumpoints" for answering from mafia only perspective. Common to call mafia scum. But answering only from wolfside like X? Vijay null, X wolf at this point.
52 - I like this train of thought. Kondiwolf would make sense.
67 - Love this.
71 - Whut? Surely if asher is fixated on mafia kill restriction it has to be a mafiaread? Logic fail.
93 thru 98 - I think Kondi is winning that argument. I still have null-to-scum reads on both Slandaar and Kondi. If both are scummy, they are on different teams, this is too vehement for bussing.
134 and 136 - Jesus, Kass. "I want x lynched, but I'm not going to justify this with a case, why don't you do that for me".
143 - I am losing my scumread on Kondi because of the same post mentioned in this one. I don't see it as WIFOM scum. Maybe that's just me.
148 - "I townread Slandaar. Vote: Slandaar" - I think I missed something here. What?!
151 - Ok... I don't see voting based on good/bad play as being particularly protown. Current reads: Xwolf, Kassscum, mild Chrimiscum read.
157 - I hate FOSing. It gives such a scummy impression, casting suspicions but not actually backing up with votes. Then again, is it that much different to listing reads? I think if you're using both, then yes it is, especially if you are bolding it to draw attention. And the "smaller" the FoS is claimed to be, the scummier it feels to be attaching such importance to it using bold text. I like Thomithscum right now.
159 - that being said, this is a very valid point.
167 - OMGUS.
178 - LBJ is playing like an asshole at this point.
198 - OmNom reads list. I disagree with a lot of it. Never a good sign.
209 - OK, maybe I shouldn't read too much into this, but BagSquad seemed to vanish as soon as Slandaar started voting him.
Page 9 - This page is chock full of weird useless horseshit.
239 - You ain't kidding, Kondi. I played in a game like this before. I was VT, lived to the end, Mafia won flawlessly, and it was because of moron townplay. Kass, even if he's town, is really doing town no favours right now. Wolves have no reason to kill useless town, and useless town is useless. If I was in the game at this point, I'd have voted Kass.
244 - FML. Slandaar is making a good point, although it's about meta which is just crapola. Kass is playing antitown even if he is town. I am actually getting ANGRY reading the thread. For the record, I think Om and Slandaar are both town-to-null right now.
252 is a good point by dr.
End of Page 11 - Reading this shit is giving me a headache. I've a good mind to knock all your collective heads together.
298 is really faulty logic. If you're relying so heavily on meta and STILL not actually backing it up with evidence, you win 1 scumread from me. I still really think Slandaar is town. I hate when I disagree with everyone, it gets me deaded and then town lose.
304 - WHAT IS THIS I DON'T EVEN
306 - Yay, finally someone says something good that makes sense. I like Thomithscum even more, and it puts a different light on the Slandar vs Om shitflinging that's been going on for maybe 125 posts? Perhaps I have been unfair on Om, too fair on Slandaar. We'll see. Also, where the fucknuts is Xfactor? Did I miss him being replaced? *checks* Nope, that happens later. Xwolf makes sense.
308 - Thomith basically says - "let's lynch one of these two, who cares if its a mislynch?" If Thomith isn't scum I'm astonished.
312 - This. Good work, Om.
314 - Opposite of this. Vijay scum would work.
319 - This.
325 reads like PO'd scum to me.
343 oh hi Kass, you're still here? But only when someone attacks you? You're so scummy I can't stand it.
344 and 345 give me cause for concern regarding my Thomithscum read, but since I also like vijayscum a little bit... hmm
347 - totally agree with Slandaar, we seem to be reading the game the same way here.
359 - I don't necessarily agree on Chrimi, townread on him for now.
363 - WOW this post is important because Chrimi goes on to either totally miss Slandaar's point or try to misrep in 374, and ESPECIALLY 378 and 379, even after Slandaar responds in detail in 376. Massive red flashing warning light above Chrimi.
380 - Brother, I hear that.
388 - this is a good case on asher. Hard to believe this is the same slot X had.
390 - Oh won't you just die Kass? You're contributing nothing, you're rushing a lynch, just climb up on the gallows yourself, there's a good chap.
391 - DO NOT LIKE THIS.

-Interlude- I'm sticking my neck out here, there is almost zero chance Slandaar is wolf. I could see mafia, I could see town, but not wolf. X-turned-Elmo I feel is wolf, Kass I really believe is wolf, asher is probably mafia, so is Thomith, and if I had to put a third it's between Chrimi and Slandaar. I've obviously been wrong on this before, though. Mafia could do with townpoints from early bussing as they are effectively just a survivor faction, and wolf needs to get rid of mafia as well as town to win, so someone reading scummy like Slandaar has a tendency to do is a perfect target. From a town perspective, we really need to focus on finding wolves first, as they are the ones that can actually kill us. I want Kass deader than a big dead dead thing that's dead.

early 400s - I'm nearly convinced that Om is town. He's 13, it's perfectly plausinble he'd react this way to mad pressure from Thomith. Admittedly the fact that Thomith is a big scumread for me helps him in that regard though.

414 - I wish you hadn't claimed, Slandaar. We had a 1/12 chance of our first serious wagon hitting the only town PR, and we magically manage it? This makes you look scummy. The claim was unprompted and just not good for town. I hate D1 claims, a mislynch is no worse than a NK of a PR, which you effectively solidify if your claim is true. Oh God, this is so bad.

Shit, Slandaar, you broke everything with this claim. I don't think anything good has come of it.

444 - Thomith is Slandaar's homeboy.
465 - that's only as true as your claim.
471 - don't like this. Asher and V2V tickle my scumdar. Chrimi is backing the wrong horses to my mind.
487 - Sounds like wolf talk. In terms of good lynching: wolf > mafia > town > unclaimed seer. No idea where claimed seer lies on there though. Everything about this slot feels wolfy.
532 - EW EW THOMITH IS SCUM
534 - DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE OH GOD JUST DIE.
539 - I just vomited over my keyboard. That's how bad this post is. Seriously, how did the wagon end up on Slandaar instead of Lurky McShitposts over here? I am really sad at this game.
553 - Don't like this post. No chance Kass gets NKd either. Why would they NK the least helpful player, even if they were town?
573 - Really? I get LBJ's slot? Weak.
575 - Sorry to hear about the death in the family.
584 - Clarity, that's what. Do you really think wolfteam will kill him overnight? Only chance that happens is if they think he really will investigate the right person overnight, and pull a confirmable wolf result. if he survives to D2, there's all sorts of WIFOM flying around and we have to use up another lynch on confirming his being a seer. The claim was so bad, and only really benefits scum.

Well, I would really like to see Kass lynched. I really would. But that's not going to happen. Om will hammer in 2 days, Kondi will hammer tonight, and I'm sorely tempted to hammer now. As much as I'll hate killing the Seer, if that's what he is, Slandaar should probably die. There was never going to be a counterclaim on D1 because that would be so awful it's not funny. Town should never claim unless there is a waiting hammer, and even then, claiming D1 is probably -EV in any case unless there is a Doctor in the format.

If I can't have my Kass lynch, I'm... well, not happy as such, because this D1 has been dreadful for town, but satisfied to see Slandaar hang. It'll give us something good to work from on D2 whether he flips seer or some form of scum. I don't mind waiting for Kondi to hammer, or hammering myself. In fact, fuck it, I'll bite the bullet.

VOTE: Slandaar

See you D2, guys.

[Fat_Tony]

Kondi was going to do the same later, allegedly, you were going to in two days... there was no way town were going to realign in such a way as to save Slandaar from hanging, and in the meantime, all we could do was give mafia more stuff to work with overnight. Anything we were going to say today will be just as relevant at the start of D2, only we will also have a NK to work from. I didn't see any reason to delay, although apologies if I trod on anyone's toes in doing this so quickly.

[Fat_Tony]

Slandaar, seer or VT? If you're VT, you're a douchebag for claiming, you put us in an impossible position by claiming unprompted.

[Fat_Tony]

Fair enough Om. Slandaar, how so? I get a bah post if i die, right?

[Fat_Tony]

For the record, I would really have preferred it if Slandaar had not died today, he was active (if a bit flaily) and had he not made the Worst Claim Ever (TM) then maybe he'd have lived. Allowing him to live overnight just muddies everything up tomorrow and we can't afford to get bogged down in ridiculous WIFOM all day in D2. You had to die, even though it should have been Kass the whole time.

Pre-edit: What would your notes have done if you were going to hammer straight afterwards anyway? You would have given wolves more info to work with. Save them for tomorrow, they'll still be valid.

[Fat_Tony]

I... actually can't find a flaw in vijay's plan. I was hoping that we could block the Werewolves' kill by keeping Slandaar alive if he's the real Seer, but the Werewolves killing is actually

good

for us and gives us information. Does that make sense?

I'll hammer tonight after I lay down my notes.

Giving your notes today is

bad

for town as it gives

wolves

information. Do you see?

[Fat_Tony]

EBWOP: I meant to write "bad for town if you're going to just hammer anyway as..."

[Fat_Tony]

^ fair point. Kass is still awful though.

[Fat_Tony]

Slandaar, ok, you're town, we get it. Are you still the seer, or was that an even worse claim than I thought?

[Fat_Tony]

kondi - genuinely hadn't thought of that last point. Fuck.

Giving wolves info to kill mafia also something I hadn't thought of. This is the first time I've played in a mafia game with 2+ scum factions, so I can only hold my hands up to having missed that one. Mea maxima culpa.

I can now see that I screwed up in hammering, I apologise. Is there any way you can get the notes done during twilight?

[Fat_Tony]

Sorry again to Kondi for hammering too fast. I need to refresh my memory of the game before I can contribute properly, this is a phone post from work so must be brief.

Also, was off work last week but back in this week, so I'll only be posting evenings and weekends from here on out.

Need to reappraise shotty, now that he's conftown.

[Fat_Tony]

Can someone please explain what we are talking about in terms of "HypoSeer"? Not familiar with the terminology.

[Fat_Tony]

Yeah, I'm struggling to see what Chrimi was doing with that post of yours Thomith. I mean, I need to do a reread with our new info, but it doesn't feel good.

[Fat_Tony]

Kondi, you were saying you'd haveit up at the end of the day Day 1 ended. How can they not be ready?

I'm holding off on voting anyone until I can get my head round this mess. More claims and my brain just can't get around it, and meatworld stuff is limiting my time on site. Sorry.

[Fat_Tony]

No, Elmo, kondi said he'd post the rest that evening before hammering D1. Then I hammered, and, suddenly it's not ready 4(or so) days later.

[Fat_Tony]

You're*

And I kinda stopped looking at the thread after I sent in my investigation.

WOOOOOOW. VOTE: Kondi

[Fat_Tony]

Well don't forget that kondi said he would hammer after he finished his notes

later that day

.
He obviously had the time to do it, so where are the notes?

This times about a billion.

[Fat_Tony]

Welcome Pirate Chemist.

[Fat_Tony]

I'm happy with a Chrimi wagon just like I am a kondi wagon.

Mod - VC please?

[Fat_Tony]

Oh, sorry, I missed that. I should pay attention.

So, Kondi is L-2, Chrimi is L-3.

UNVOTE: Kondi until he posts his notes. Assuming they ever come.

[Fat_Tony]

Nor do I, Chrimi. But if I hadn't got off the wagon, you'd just have put him to L-1. I could see it coming.

[Fat_Tony]

I wouldn't have voted if you hadn't unvoted.

I didn't mean you specifically, I meant "someone". I unvoted because it seemed pretty clear that someone else would get on the wagon and the last thing town needs is to be put in a position where scum can hammer.

@ Fat Tony: I don't understand that unvote. Are you claiming that you knew Chrimi was going to vote Kondi?

By the way, note the Chrimi-OMGUS.

Anyway, I still want kondi lynched. Kass is probably scum, so is Chrimi. But kondi gets rope today.

No, I meant that I figured that someone would, not Chrimi specifically. Although, it doesn't take a genius to come to that conclusion - Chrimi had already said he wasn't voting Kondi "yet" earlier on, and since the secondary wagon is on him, it makes sense that he would get on the main wagon to strengthen it and save his own skin.

I find it funny that Elmo thinks that I'd be that sloppy as scum.

[Fat_Tony]

Also going to say this. Tony is town.

Yay, somebody gets it. But stop buddying me

[Fat_Tony]

Pffft. I'd noticed this stuff D2 but it didn't seem profitable to say it when we already had the right wagon going. Kondi was super clumsy with that one. Was waiting til I had PC access to get a proper writeup done, but seems like my jobs been done. Bear in mind that hunting down werewolves doesn't mean people aren't scum, likewise hunting mafia. They have to bet each other and don't know who they are.

I like this Elmo lynch but I think it's way too soon and too risky to put him to L-1 just yet. We should at least draw it out and try to draw info from the remaining scum. But I'm convinced Elmo is a wolf after Kondi's botch.

[Fat_Tony]

Holy crap, Chrimi, are you seriously suggesting we should avoid the wolf to allow for NK? Look, this doesn't immediately confirm Asher as town, he could just be scum that noticed the same stuff I did. Don't fear a counterclaim from me, it won't be coming, but the litmus test is if we lynch Elmo and he (miraculously) flips town, we then know Asher is either scum or wolf. It would make no sense for him as a wolf, so we can discount that. As scum... Well, he'd better hope Elmo flips wolf, because if he flips ANYTHING else then Asher is our lynch D4.

The scenarios where Asher could fake claim are unlikely - he'd have to be super SUPER sure that Elmo was wolf. Until Elmo flips I'm not gonna clear Asher, but I see no reason not to buy this claim, myself. We should, as I have said, though, continue to scum hunt for a few more days at least, as any info to get the remaining mafia can only be good for town.

pedit: ninjad

[Fat_Tony]

I object. Same reasons as Asher, plus it'll allow any scum player not already on the wagon to hammer and stop discussion. Think I already made this point twice.

Keeping an eye on Thomith, been struggling to get a good read on him and this does feel scummy, but not at all sure about him yet. Pretty sure Chrimi is mafia.

[Fat_Tony]

Well, it's basically inevitable that you're going to be lynched, so what good is you hanging around? You're the one remaining wolf, once you're dead, wolves lose, so since you're GOING to die, it won't matter to you whether scum get more time or not, it'll just end your involvement in a game you've already lost.

You say you don't believe Asher's claim - make the case then. How does his claim make sense if he isn't the seer, because as far as I can see, fakeclaiming here can only hurt whatever faction he is.

[Fat_Tony]

Agree with Elmo's reads in the main there. I expect scum to be within Kass and Thomith, Chrimi is obvscum and needs to die tomorrow by megaspeedlynch of death.

pedit: Why not today? We have time!

[Fat_Tony]

I hope so, given there are no meaningful night actions the game is effectively nightless so it would make sense to make that official.

By the way, I would say good work town, but tbh it's more like bad work wolves. BUT, good work Asher. You claimed at the right moment, so well done. Also, I totally thought you were scum D1. Would have lynched you in a heartbeat. Whoops!

[Fat_Tony]

VOTE: Chrimi

I see no reason to hang around.

[Fat_Tony]

@Mod - I will be V/LA until Tuesday morning with sporadic access. Will do my best to remain active in that time regardless. Thanks!

[Fat_Tony]

As expected, scum are going to bus. Woo. But still, kill Chrimi with fire, folks.

[Fat_Tony]

Well, since a townie was lynched D1, that's inevitably true.

[Fat_Tony]

Slandaar. Crappy selfish fakeclaim.

[Fat_Tony]

When you do, please explain why though and not Captain obvscum?

[Fat_Tony]

Om, please note that your vote puts Chrimi at L-1. I'm not at all bothered by that, but jut in case the vanishingly small chance that he is town comes true, don't want to give any scum an excuse for lynching.

[Fat_Tony]

Alright, kinda did a cross between skimming and reading. Also I'm not going to bother answering the RQS questions unless someone asks me to.

Kass is town. He's playing to his useless town meta I remember from Open 376 (except he was also Mason there but w/e).
Shotgun is town.
v2v is town.
Chrimi is town.
LBJ is probably newb-town.
Thomith is town.

I'm kinda wary of kondi and Slandaar right now. This may sound wierd, but they seem more concerned with making cases and being active than I remember from their town meta. Yes, I get this is what town are supposed to be like, but it just feels off to me.
Of course, this could just be me being fail and forgetting half of their town meta, if that's the case, then just disregard this.

The rest (TheX, asher and Bag) are null.

VOTE: kondi
My gut is going crazy on you.

For now my reads are mainly gut, but I will probably end up using more logic as time goes by, as I personally find it hard to make cases on things that have already happened.

ALso pointing this out.
U even state the Chrimi is town
and now u just decide to go for Chrimi because he's an easy lynch

Yeah, cos 660 interim posts is definitely not long enough to change his mind. You're either derpscum or derp-de-herp-derp drool-down-your-chin-moron town.

[Fat_Tony]

Chrimi's behaviour on D2 especially, but also D3, just screams scum to me. I was in two minds d1 but D2 is just clear as day.

[Fat_Tony]

What about my really bad?

[Fat_Tony]

Yeah, honestly I can now see Fat Tony as scum.

Please make your case that I am scum.

@Mod: I have req'd replacement in anohter game as meatworld is getting a bit nuts. However, I've enough invested in this game at D4 that I don't want to just cut and run, especially with asher having a heap of shite fall on him (best of luck, by the way, dude). Please consider this a warning that I may need to request replacement at some point in the coming weeks, and in the meantime my posting will be less frequent, so if you want to take it on yourself to replace me I won't argue, but I'll do my best to keep active in the meantime.

Seriously guys, wtf is happening? We need to kill Chrimi NOW. Wagons roll.

[Fat_Tony]

Picking up my prod.

So sorry guys, like I said, life stuff. I'll catch up and post properly this evening.

[Fat_Tony]

That is the most basic case ever.
Why else is Thomith scum?

Did a quick catchup and caught this little beauty.

Torn between Chrimi/Thomith for last scum, but 99% sure it's one of them.

Chrimi's reactions over the last page or so seem like frustrated townie, although the vote hopping seems a bit weird.

Phone posting so need to check out the vote count before I place a vote, don't want to accidentally speedlynch anyone!

I note that still nobody has made a case on me but my name is getting mentioned as scum a lot. I think Om was the first to bring me up as scum before his world went tits up, and he had zero case. I'm fine with you guys saying you think I'm scum, but I'd like the chance to defend myself, and I reckon that's a lot easier for me to do if you lay down your case.

I'm also ok with being the lynch today of it gives us info. We have 4 shots, wasting one on me, while suboptimal, wouldn't be the worst thing, it would give us a conf town and also shine a light on those pushing for my lunch with little reason. I reckon that BK is a townie and that Chrimi's opportunity to take the opportunities presented to him to deflect attention elsewhere when he gets the chance to do so, as any town lynch he can push helps, particularly if he didn't start the wagon.

So, in summary - would my accusers please state their case? Ta.

[Fat_Tony]

Ok, Chrimi looks town today, but only today, could be frustrated town but could be desperation. I don't want to hammer (because I'm pretty sure that it's L-1

{mod- vc?}

) straight away, but please take this as confirmation that I'm willing to do so.

BK - what makes me potential scum in your eyes? Please state your case. Also, why do you have a town read on Thomith? He seems to be everyone's number 2 suspect about now.

Finally, my reads from town down to scum:

1. Me (but only cos I've seen my role PM)
2. Andrew (because Asher was seer)
3. Kassadin (convinced he's just troll town. See conviction against Om)
4. BK (wouldn't be stunned if you were scum, you're trying to lead the game. Your posts look like scum hunting but are actually just quote walls with a line or two of basic logic. Could be a genuine hunting effort, could be a smokescreen)
5. Thomith (because a lot of your play throughout has felt off)
6. Chrimi (because damn.)

Honestly, if we lynch 6,5,4,1 there, it would seem we are bound to hit the scum before the game ends. I include myself last because if 6,5,4 are all misses, even I would think I was scum after that. Equally, if you want to lynch me first, go for it, but avenge me - the lynch order is Chrimi, Thomith, BK.

[Fat_Tony]

Question

@Mod - does Andrew know who Asher investigated D1?

Andrew, if you do know that, it might be of some use. Asher's reads have been good all game, so if he found someone suspicious it might be of use.

(It's going to end up being me, isn't it? )

EBWOP: Valid, Thomith. But explain the scummy looking play from every other day? Not saying you are scum, not saying that quote was proof, just something interesting that I noticed. Same as I noticed Chrimi going all out on Kassadin because he thought Kass may be an easy lynch yesterday, especially after Kass locked on to Om.

For the record, I was surprised Om flipped scum. Genuinely thought he was town.

[Fat_Tony]

Question

@Mod - does Andrew know who Asher investigated D1?

I haven't publicly revealed who the Seer is (the only way I could do that in this game is if the Seer died or wins in the end), so I can't answer that.

Of course, sorry.

[Fat_Tony]

also unless you explain my "scummy looking play" then i cant explain why it looked scummy.

This is true.

By the way, BK, heard of distancing? Your PoE has a flaw. But again, if you guys want me dead, go for t, it'll help town (sort of). Of course from my point of view I want anyone besides me or Andrew to die because that way town is guaranteed a win, so I'm having to assume Kass-town, based on distancing from Omscum, so my entire thought process is flawed.

I'm 99% sure either Chrimi or Thomith is scum. I feel pretty strongly that Kass is town and I'm leaning town on BK, but not sold.

[Fat_Tony]

Yay town. Boo people that suspected me.

I FINALLY WAS INVOLVED IN A WIN AND SURVIVED TO THE END!

I'm sorry that I wasn't able to be active towards the end, MeatWorld is a pain sometimes.

Aaaanyway, gg town, terrible game everyone else (except Om, who TOTALLY had me convinced he was town.)