Open 427: PYP X/Y (Day 7)

[RachMarie]

So Sorry everyone I have been through a crazy couple of days that included my roomie Kris hitting my bf NS and cops called and talking with the landlord about possible eviction and so on.

I totally forgot to check to see if this game has started, my bad

Will read through and post my thoughts.

[RachMarie]

I am confused about the doubling up numbers thing?

I just picked 7 cause I always pick 7 unless there is some reason I can't. I was not thinking of what other peeps might pick.

[RachMarie]

I picked 4 after reading the previous PYP games. It seems 1-3 were higher to be picked on the list. Figured 4 was safe

I read this and I saw something that Hoopla said about doubling up and so I was asking because I was confused. I have not yet had a chance to do ISO research and come up with my reads yet.

[RachMarie]

you will get your ISO reads don't worry I am working on them now.

Also I know Jal and Arugula (and probably Hoopla) are aware of how life has been for me lately. Still working on catching up.

[RachMarie]

oh and BK as well most of them have been in games with me recently.

[RachMarie]

I am breaking this up to make it less of a wall.


Preliminary reads Part One

Andrew's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Seems to be getting in a match with Pecan but really have no clue what he thinks of anyone else Fairly null ATM needs to post more. (I know its a major pot and kettle atm but I will be posting more).

Null

Aru's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Tries to get discussion going and get us out of RVS. Gets in the argument about number analysis. Post 234 does not feel like something scum would say. It indicates a motive to narrow down who the scum really are which is a town motive.

Leaning Town

BK's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

A little more meat here though also joining in the number analysis argument. However does push on others as well. For now leaning Town

Leaning Town

Cobbler's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Him and Contra seem to be getting into it a fair bit. Could be a Town v Town thing though over different playstyles. Will watch this carefully though. I will look at Elmo carefully but I think he maybe off on his reasoning there Elmo is Elmo, but I usually can peg when he is Town. Seems to be focusing more now on other people and not just tunneling on Contra. For now he can go in the Town pile.

Leaning Town

Contra's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

WOW this dude really gets into analysis. Good pushes on people including me and I admit he is right to push me since usually I am the one pushing on people who are not posting much. I can see why he and Cobbler got into it and might both be town but different playstyles. Though if there is scum tween them I would have to say more likely Cobbler. Contra is a very strong town read for me all the way through. I would be highly surprised if he flips scum.

Strong Town.

Elmo's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Elmo why do you do this I definitely can see why people think he might be scum, but he is just being Elmo. When he plays crazy like this he is town. He is more methodical and pays more attention to things when he is scum.

Town

Hoopla's ISO

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go


Seems to be making a lot of the right noises, but I am not completely convinced. She has the experience to WIFOM out of things well. I have a few questions for her to help me determine which side she is on.


1. In Post 194 you say you suspect I am town even though I have barely posted and not yet posted content til now. Why? That makes me suspicious.

2. Post 89 bothers me. You agree with IUN about Contra and then vote for Cobbler? Sounds like you are keeping your options open there?

3. Why so much focus and distration on the number analysis. I know for example it is off in this game because I just picked my favorite number. I did not sit and think about what numbers others would pick. It worked out just fine for me. So I can see a case for using the number analysis as a form of IIoA and make it seem like you are actively scum hunting without scum hunting?


Based on the answers to these questions, I will better determine whether you are scum or town.

Null for now till questions are answered.

Part 2 coming up

[RachMarie]

BK why the OMGUS? Do you have any reason for voting Elmo besides the fact he voted for you?

[RachMarie]

@ Andrew why did you not read the ISO before voting for Pecan? We are definitely past the RVS stage...

[RachMarie]

BTW that is not a reflection of whether or not Pecan is scummy, just trying to peg everyone and that looks suspicious to me Andrew.

[RachMarie]

It came across as I voted for him then went through his ISO to cabbage together reasons for voting for him so it did not seem like I did not have reasons. That is why I questioned it.

[RachMarie]

huh? Om? Could you elaborate a tad more?

[RachMarie]

Do you have a case to back up your vote Fitz?

[RachMarie]

To be honest the number crunching is making it difficult for me and making my eyes glaze over. So I am asking questions on things I find a tad suspicious (like a vote with nothing else in the post), to get a better handle on people and their motivations to figure out who I think is the scummiest.

No offense Hoopla but Stats and I did not do very well together lol.

[RachMarie]

@ Pecan how do you determine they are in the last part of the draft? I have to say that all that math kinda confused me? Hoopla confused me even more with her number analysis. Can someone explain in a non mathematical way for me?

[RachMarie]

Cobblerfone 1
Arugula 6
RachMarie 7
Venmar 7
pieceofpecanpie 8
BK201 8
andrew94 3
Hoopla 3
Jal 3
Ser Arthur Dayne 4
Om of the Nom 4
Elmo TeH AzN 4
Contrapposto 4
iamausername 4

So based on this Pecan's point of picking a later draft one would mean from Hoopla on down right?


Jal I am working on figuring this out in a less mathematically oriented way so it makes sense to me. I will vote though.

[RachMarie]

And Hoopla's short list save for Jal, is all in the first half of the draft...

[RachMarie]

Woah no

replacing out unless under certain circumstances is a NULL tell town are as likely to do it as scum. Same with lurking. And if he has flaked out of all his games then even more so a null tell. Most likely real life happened (I do know how THAT goes).

Why are you trying to get a spot lynched before someone replaces in and clarifies if that is a town or scum slot? Do you KNOW it is a town slot??

VOTE: Contra

[RachMarie]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=21878

Here ya go Contra a game I was in and I was so sure this dude had to be scum since it was not once or twice, but FOUR different people played this role most of them seeming to either actively lurk or be scummy. (One of those was BK actually lol) That slot when we finally lynched the 4th dude (BV310) ended up to be TOWN.

That game was NOT at all typical Newbie game however, With all the replacements mostly being VERY experienced players, Pyro in his 2nd game and myself (who had almost enough to qualify for IC by then), were the only somewhat newbies lol. After going through that experience, I GIVE replacements a chance to chime in. I am inclined that way anyways, but that game really hit home how much of a null tell replacing out can be.

[RachMarie]

No but. that is why I responded to it. Because it was a mistake I did myself, however I also noticed YOUR reaction to having 2 votes on you in a game this size.

[RachMarie]

I stated KNOW in caps figuring it was obvious enough my accusation. I was accusing him of picking the dude who was being replaced to lynch because he knew it was a town slot and therefore an easy lynch to latch onto if he is scum. The only way he could KNOW the slot was town instead of thinking it is town or scum with doubt still, is if he were scum.

Hope that clarifies things. However I plan on really looking at Contra's ISO a bit more and see if it was a one time thing or if there are other tells. I am going to take Fritz's advice and just do regular scum hunting and ignore all the math talk that is way over my head.

[RachMarie]

oops right it was Bork not you sorry about that

[RachMarie]

Ok I am not even gonna try to understand the numbers stuff that Hoopla throws out, however I would hope we would not rush to lynch someone in the top half for now til we have more info to make sure it is a scum PR not a town PR. I realize in this setup, unlike a lot of setups that a PR is not always town, however how many PRs are likely to be scum? Maybe one or two? While the majority of the PRs are likely to be town and we need them. On the other hand Pecan makes a good point about not giving a free pass. There is a world of difference tween not lynching a likely PR on D 1 and just assuming they MUST be town. I am looking at everyone, and none of you get a free pass from me at this time. We do not know enough yet to fully peg everyone into who is town and who is scum.

Pushing for a lynch of a most likely PR to me seems much like role fishing which is on the scummy side. Our PRs need to stay mum at this point so they can do their best job for us.

So @ Hoopla why are you pushing on Cobbler?

[RachMarie]

@ Mod V/LA till tomorrow

[RachMarie]

I am still here but it has been one heck of a weekend. I will be posting more tomorrow and posting a vote as well.

The reason I had not yet moved it Contra was because it is better if there is no real danger of a quick hammer to leave it than to unvote and then later vote again. I used to do that a lot and got yelled for doing it.

[RachMarie]

I will get in here and start posting again. We have had NO internet for 3 days and it has been driving me NUTS. Finally got a new modem that works with our system from AT and T.

The nice thing is it is both a modem and a router combined.

[RachMarie]

No night action because I had no access....

Jailkeeper I definitely did not want Doc again FOR SURE and I am not fond of one shot ones.. So I asked for JK

[RachMarie]

Guys I did not have internet access so I did not PM the mod in time bah Lynching me for having NO access is not a good move why don't we slow down and lynch scum not the JK

[RachMarie]

I have not signed up for a single game in the past week I have been having major issues even before they switched me over to UVerse without a proper modem because my old one which was 5 and 1/2 years old. I have spent hours on the phone with AT and T the past week and a half trying to sort things out with the old modem a new modem which is the wrong one and finally getting a modem that workws.

[RachMarie]

I always keep a Mafia tab open and switch to it when I have time to do stuff. I work from home and I usually have about 15 to 20 tabs open all the time on Firefox and often have Chrome open with at least 1 to 5 tabs. (I use it for the hydra with Elmo so I do not have to log in and log out). This means yes you see my name a LOT but does not mean I am looking at Mafia at that time. Also before Monday when the Uverse was switched over, I was having many days of intermittent internet where the modem would bug out on me and then I had to spend a long time fiddling with it to get it back online. Also though it is better than it was, we still have the breaker go out usually during peak times and I have to go flip it back on. Then reconnect. For several days there this was an extremely tedious process.

New Uverse, new router/modem combo, and it seems to be working VERY well. So now I can focus on Mafia again.

So to answer your question, Peta, I am not saying that Jal is lying, but that he was mistaken in his belief I was actually on the mafia tab. Believe me all of this has been as frustrating to me as to you.

Feel free to check out my post history. You will see my activity has been lacking everywhere.

[RachMarie]

The 17th I was gone much of the day to the doctor and errands. NS has a library card (until I can pay some money to cover very old library fees I can not get one again here), and he went to the library to use the computers. He even posted for me on my game I am modding (that is now over and I still have to wrap up the flavor and so on). Look at Open 410, look at Open 421 (that NS was modding). Both games are over.

The 18th I was on the phone with AT and T for HOURS. I also was sleeping a fair bit because while we were out on Friday I fell. I am still kinda sore from that. But if you give me a bit of time, I will catch up. Also I was not sure about Hoopla she confused me so much with all that math stuffs. I had planned on Jailkeeping her. I am truly sorry I did not get a chance since she turned out to be town and it would have kept her from being NKed

I am going to take a look at who interacted with Pecan that is where we should be looking for scum, not all those complicated math things that make no sense, but real scum hunting.

[RachMarie]

@ Fitz I did not ask NS to let my game I am modding know, he chose to do that himself. NS is a very good mod. BTW he could have gotten me modkilled for posting in this game duh.

[RachMarie]

NS walked down to the local library and borrowed a computer each day for a short time using his library card. I was not with him I was still at home working on other things (including many convos with AT and T). He could not post in an active game, however my game I was modding he posted and then told me he did when he came home that night from the library. My game had already ended and was not an ongoing game.

[RachMarie]

Considering a number of people thought Hoopla was scum that is a very good possibility.

I picked JK because it was an always role instead of a shot one. And I hate being Doc, basically unless you luck out and pick the right person to protect, you are screwed, and I have a bad record at picking the right person to protect. For scum I could see it being good since they know who to protect. Meanwhile we need to focus on interactions tween Pecan a known scum, and others and not so much on numbers.

[RachMarie]

I wanted to JK her because I thought she was scum with all the number stuff distracting us from real scum hunting. I have been looking at pecan's ISO and comparing it with others to figure out who his partners are. I am also looking at those who are following the SAME pattern as Pecan did. Obviously I was wrong, and she was town and after the game I plan on asking her why she focused so much on number stuff which is useless instead of focusing more on tried and true scum hunting. I will be looking at her ISO next to see if I can find something of who she thought was scum.

[RachMarie]

@Fitz

Though I know town can tunnel too, I am really getting suspicious of your being on me so hard. Are you even looking at any other players? Or are you trying for the easy lynch and focusing on my issues to keep town distracted from everything. I may not have been posting much the past couple of days but I have been catching up on reading the posts and doing ISO research to find who are Pecan's buddies. Also looking at who I will JK tonight so I can make sure the action gets set before a lynch.

I see some definite interplay between you and Pecan who we KNOW is scum. So that means... I know where my vote is going until I get some answers. And I noticed you did the same thing with Hoopla a lot on D 1.



VOTE: Fitz


Pedit I also want to know what Andrew's claim is, and I am confused about a 1 shot vig? I thought it was a 2 shot vig I know Kassadin had 2 shots and used them in strange ways in Open 397? And it was a one shot cop too at least LS was in Open 397.

[RachMarie]

oops you are right sorry about that

to be honest the main one I looked at was JK cause I knew if I got a chance I wanted to be the JK. I did note the fruit one and thought why would anyone choose that over neighborizer you get nothing for passing out fruit lol. I wanted one I knew would help town most.

[RachMarie]

Actually the link was the info was from the Wiki.

After you get past the math stuffs which make no sense you get this for the roles to pick.



Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful

Congratulations, you have won the Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Night 3 Vig: On Night 3 only, you may select a player in the game to nightkill.
Vengeful: If you are lynched, you may select a player in the game to vengekill before the game goes to night.


[edit]
1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO

Congratulations, you have won the 1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

1-Shot Vig: On one night of your choice, you may select a player in the game to nightkill.
1-Shot PGO: On one night of your choice, you may elect to "arm" yourself. If you do, you kill anyone who targets you that night.


[edit]
Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector

Congratulations, you have won the Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Cop: Each night, you may investigate one player in the game and learn their alignment.
1-Shot Redirector: On one night of your choice, you may select a player to "redirect". If they are using an action that night, they will be redirected to another player of your choice.


[edit]
1-Shot Commuter OR 1-Shot Watcher

Congratulations, you have won the 1-Shot Commuter or 1-Shot Watcher Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

1-Shot Commuter: On one night of your choice, you may elect to "commute", which will render you immune to all actions on that night.
1-Shot Watcher: On one night of your choice, you may watch a player of your choice and learn who targeted them (if anyone).


[edit]
Doctor OR Roleblocker

Congratulations, you have won the Doctor OR Roleblocker Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Doctor: Each night, you may select a player in the game to protect from one nightkill.
Roleblocker: Each night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. This will prevent them from using an action.


[edit]
Universal Backup OR Role Cop

Congratulations, you have won the Universal Backup OR Role Cop Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Universal Backup: After the first powerrole has died, you will inherit their role. If the first roles to die are multiple people at night, you will inherit one of those roles randomly.
Role Cop: Each night, you may investigate one player in the game and learn their role. Mafia Goons and Vanilla Townies will both investigate as Vanilla.


[edit]
Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor

Congratulations, you have won the Neighborizer or Fruit Vendor Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Neighborizer: Each night, you may create a neighbourhood with another player in the game. You will now have access to a quicktopic thread with this player for use at any time.
Fruit Vendor: Each night, you may target a player in the game and give them a piece of fruit. The fruit does nothing.


[edit]
Jailkeeper OR Tracker

Congratulations, you have won the Jailkeeper OR Tracker Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Jailkeeper: Each night, you may choose to "Jailkeep" someone, which will simultaneously protect them from one nightkill and roleblock them.
Tracker: Each night, you may select a player in the game to track. You will find out who they targeted that night (if anyone).


I was hoping for JK and when I lucked out using my number I always pick which is 7, I was happy to be JK definitely not Tracker from what I have seen that is kinda like Doc, not that much use. JK is far more active and you have a good chance of either blocking the kill or protecting the person being targeted.

Still waiting for Andrew, and waiting for Fitz to respond.

Meanwhile going to ISO hunt more and see who else might be scum.

[RachMarie]

@Andrew
Why would I choose Tracker from what I have seen it is about as effective as the Doc and my luck with Doc has been miserable?

@ Fitz
you clearly are avoiding MY question and focusing way to much on internet issues. So I will put it to you bluntly: IF you get me lynched and we lose our JK who will you look at for scum then. Because there still will be scum since I am town. Do you have any ideas who the scum are or will you keep on tunneling me and let the scum hide in the shadows?

@BK from your list and adding Pecan who also was a PR that sounds like 5 only I thought there was 7 PRs in this game? Maybe we should be looking at the VT claims more carefully scum could be hiding there. I know I have done that as scum claim VT instead of a PR role (I was Mafia JOAT) in Open 421 which is over so it is fair game to look at.

[RachMarie]

I know that Arugula has been replaced in other games so the fact he is not around in this one is a null point, but you make good points there BK Also if you are a one shot Vig why would you shoot on N 1? If I had that role I would hold on to it longer til we had a better clue who scum was.

[RachMarie]

Ok thanks for explaining I did not understand that part in the Wiki. Stats are not my strongest suit.

Can you explain why I am a possibility to you BK? So far all Fitz has focused on is the RL issues not really made a case (which is why I think he is probably scum going for the easy lynch) ?

Though I can see a case for Arugula I would like to hear from his replacement first. I can't go into detail, cause it is an ongoing game but I know he has to be replaced in all his games. I will take a closer look at Cobbler.

@ Mod any idea when we will have a replacement for Arugula?

[RachMarie]

True that but I don't like lynching people without giving them a chance to respond. It happened to me in Open 421 recently because of not having access. It is a good sportsmanship thing with me to give everyone a chance to speak first.

[RachMarie]

I wanted to JK her because I thought she was scum with all her number theory stuffs which made no sense and seemed like a distraction as well as making herself to be an authority to get the town to sheep her. I was wrong she was town, but I did think she was scum because of all the math stuff she through out. Why would I jailkeep someone based on numbers? I wanted to JK someone I thought was scum.

[RachMarie]

How about I JK Arugula and his replacement? If he is scum he can't shoot anyone, and if he is telling the truth about being a one shot vig he already used his one shot. It at least would give us some real information. Something real instead of imaginary numbers and stats.

[RachMarie]

Also an ordinary cop has no real benefit for scum but a ROLE cop would. That makes me rather suspicious of Cobbler as well.

[RachMarie]

I was asking if it would help. I know who I want to JK but since there seems to be a lot of suspicion on both Arugula (and replacement) and on Cobbler, I thought it might help.

Elmo I know you like to go crazy when you are town, but really? You are buying Fitz's non case?

Meanwhile I want to see if there is much interaction tween Cobbler and Pecan like there was with Fitz.

@Fitz it was slow going with Hoopla's ISO cause so much of it was non scum hunting number distraction stuffs. I think I have narrowed down a part though were she gave some non math reads.

[RachMarie]

@ Mod now that Newbie 1253 is over I can say yes Arugula definitely needs a replacement. He had to be replaced in that game at the last part and Zorblag (Troll) graciously stepped in.

[RachMarie]

@Andrew can you give any reasons why a vig with only one shot would use it up on N1 before town really knows much?

I feel that Elmo is most likely town all he plays crazy town and more sensible scum. So based on meta and I have played a LOT of games with Elmo, I am putting him in the town pile.

So far I have

Town
Elmo
Venmar
BK

Potential Scum

Fitz

Much weaker reads of Potential Scum
Arugula
Cobbler
Andrew? (weakest read)

Obviously they can't all be scum since there are only 2 more. I don't see a lot of support on my primary scumspect though. So I wil look at these 3 more carefully and place a vote on one of them. I would not support a NL this early it has no benefit for town.

Reasons:

Arugula's claim sounds fake, and I find it highly suspicious that a one shot vig (if he is) would shoot on N1.

Fitz has the most interaction with Pecan, and as a claimed cop seems like a highly likely target for scum last night. He has focused on issues that are not game relevant to make his non cases for scum reads. Heavy tunneling then kinda adding into the mix Arugula. Seems like he knows I will flip town (and of course JK), and is adding Arugula (another one who has a lot of suspicion) so he has an out if he gets me lynched.


I have a gut feeling about Cobbler that I can't shake, But because of the claim, I would feel better about waiting til I am more sure he is fake claiming. There is too much variation on number of PRs plus the fact they can be either scum or town PRs in this setup for me to feel comfortable lynching him today. If he is scum I think he likely picked the role cop instead of regular cop and is fake claiming cop, which is a common scum tactic I have seen in Newbie games, where there is a chance of a town cop and there is always a mafia role cop. Or he is fake claiming because he is a mafia doc. It is pretty convenient that he investigated Hoopla who died, though to be fair as town cop in Newbie 1222 I did that with Hiplop. And there was suspicion on Hoopla by several people. So I stand by I want to see more from him and not comfortable with lynching him today.


Andrew has not even cast a vote, and he has provided the least amount of data. Could be scum trying to hide under the radar.

Fitz is right about one thing, I think it is very likely that scum grabbed doc for them since they KNOW who to protect, it becomes a MUCH more powerful role for mafia than it ever is for town.

[RachMarie]

From the Wiki

Universal Backup

OR Role Cop

Congratulations, you have won the Universal Backup OR Role Cop Role. Please specify before D1 starts which role you'd like to be.

Abilities:

Universal Backup: After the first powerrole has died, you will inherit their role. If the first roles to die are multiple people at night, you will inherit one of those roles randomly.

Role Cop: Each night, you may investigate one player in the game and learn their role. Mafia Goons and Vanilla Townies will both investigate as Vanilla.

Seems to me there is I did read it more carefully this time.

[RachMarie]

Role fishing.. scum sometimes fake claim to get the real PR to CC and most scum feel it is a good risk to take.

But again it is quite possible he is cop and town. Which is why I want to see more investigations. If he is scum it will show up.

Meanwhile, I will happily tell you tomorrow who I jailed. (Just to be SURE I got an action in THIS time I already sent it in.)

[RachMarie]

Speaking of Om ... You plan on ever contributing something? Or just hanging out

[RachMarie]

I see that now thank you for answering my question Andrew.

[RachMarie]

Actually you must have missed it BK I stated I already turned in my jail action to MAKE sure it went through this time.

[RachMarie]

LOL it is ok it happens sometimes to me too.

Meanwhile if Cobbler does flip scum I will take a look at interactions with him and if he turns out to be town then I will be looking carefully at those who pushed for his lynch so hard. Its been easier to play since I stopped trying to understand the number theory stuffs, and just focused on regular scum hunting techniques. Having working internet and some peace and quiet helps too.

Roomie is in the Bay Area dealing with a court issue and will be gone for a while giving NS and I, a break around here and my doc is going to push to make sure I get my bi-pap machine for my sleep apnea.

[RachMarie]

Well great job scum team.

I KNEW it was Peta once we got to that point. But you did an awesome job Peta.

I really want to apologize to everyone that I did not get the first night jail in time. Game might have been very different if Hoopla had still be around on D 2. And I probably would not have gotten lynched.

Thanks everyone for an interesting game. ♥

[RachMarie]

I really feel bad I did not jail Hoopla in time as I had planned game might have been very different.

That is now 3 times I have been lynched after claiming, once as JK and twice as Doc

[RachMarie]

oops right forgot that I was dead for a while lol. Was another game I got lynched after I claimed.