Open 455 - Tit for Tat - OVER

[guille2015]

Klick is a master of getting out of RVS.

It was a disturbing vote from Disturbed One. He sheeps the Klick vote. He realizes it's bad and retreats. IGMEOY

I've seen Klick do that play (self Vote RVS), and for him it's a null tell. Cherry Dogs followup is suspect.

I can understand Disturbed's explanation that a self vote was not town-aligned. That is usually a scum maneuver late in the wagon. I can chalk that up as a newbie player. His interaction made me feel uneasy so I will think of him as Null leaning scum for the time being.

We are totally out of the RVS NQ. I agree with shamrock's #58.

I think I am in three games with Om, I like this guy.

HerrRudi's vote without reading the rest of the game caught my eye. The reason is not good. For all he knew Klick could have been in L-1.

I like Neko's post, but I disagree with his/her opinion of Cheery and Klick.

Vote:HerrRudi

Herr Rudi: What's your opinion on Disturbed.

[guille2015]

First off, check out the bolded parts. He starts off with a brown-noseyish comment simply to compliment Klick. This is totally unnecessary buddying and rather sketchy. A better example, though, is the next one in which he throws out a 'hey I know Om and he's cool' comment. He doesn't even back it with a reason from this game, but rather saying he likes him from other, completely irrelevant. There's no real town motivation to buddy in this manner, not when Om has done little to nothing this game. Then, lastly, is that 'I like Neko, but he's wrong.' It's more buddying. Plain and simple.

@guille:
Why you buddy so hard with those guys?

That is a loaded question. If it seemed that I buddied to them, it was not intentional. That post was a catch up post where I posted what I thought as I read.

I am not bother by your pick on me. I am bothered by the phrasing of your question.

[guille2015]

He claims there's 'room for one more despite the fact that Cheery brought up two names (guille and Neko). Now why would he do that? How can he be so confident that there are at least two scum in his pool of four? Looks an awful lot like a scum slip from where I'm standing. A better problem than a derp RVS vote on page three at least. For that reason:

UNVOTE: HerrRudi

VOTE: A_Potato

Potatoman, why is there room for 'one'?

Honestly I do not understand what the potato was saying with that sentence. But it doesn't seem like a scumslip to me. From what I can tell it's part of a conversation between Cheery and Potato. The switch to Potato is bad, IMO.

Additionally, you seem to keep saying that Om, or better A_Potato (a hydra between a newbie and a veteran) is inconsistent and has very little contribution. But I would disagree with that though. He has constantly been stating who he thinks is scum and who he thinks is town. He also adds in reasons. I consider that contribution.

[guille2015]

I am satisfied with Herr's response to pressure. I am leaning town on him. His response and later play are consistent with his actions.

Unvote: HerrRudi

My most suspicious players are Disturbed, Mhork, and Venmar.

Klick

: What's your feel for HerrRudi?

Disturbed

:I will repeat A_Potato's question. What are your reads on everyone?

Vote: Venmar

Venmar

: Please explain your vote on Nekoko.

[guille2015]

Unvote Venmar

I am satisfied with his response. I disagree with him, but doesn't mean he is scum.

Now, Disturbed has made a couple of scummy things in the last 2 pages. First, he copies Venmar on his Nekoko read. OMGUS on NQ. I am also not to keen on His conversation with Cheery Dog. CD has come up on top.

Vote Disturbed

[guille2015]

Hey MoI, Happy to see you in this game.

HerrRudi, You did not have to unvote when combination thing was replaced out. I am finding this play odd. And then you end up sheeping the player that you had your where suspicious off?

What's your opinion of Disturbed now Herr?

[guille2015]

Pinpointed my weird vibe from Cheery.

His posts 102 and 105 were extremely vague, and amounted to "I think this person is this alignment because." Which is a fairly scummy thing to do, saying you're suspicious of people but not giving any real reasons so as to not accidentally contradict yourself later.

@EVERYONE

– I’d like you to consider the above and then read Post 132 and weigh in on how that post synchs with this one.

Well, the "tell" he considers a scum tell is the same thing he did in 132. His position on Disturbed is actually pretty weak. And is extremely vague on cheery Dog which is what NQ is condemning him for.

I agree with MoI that Disturbed could be newbie town. I am worried if Disturbed reaches Lylo. That said, I am inclined to vote for NQ than disturbed. I'll reread NQ and Disturbed's ISO before I switch my vote.

[guille2015]

When CE's business turned out to be very genuine, the lurking becomes a null. I liked MoI's post, I ISO's Q, and I agree there. That slot was highly volatile.

Venmar voted Nekoko, my bad there.

Disturbed is someone I will hesitantly be up for lynching. Something about him is manufactured but I have a gut town on him so I'm hesitant to go against that.

I feel like unvoting pending replacement is a fine thing to do, you're not going to make me feel bad for that. That slot could question my vote regardless, whether or not it was on him at the moment is irrelevant. I stand by when I put my vote there, but it turns out the lurking became less and less scummy and more IRL based so I removed the vote. Plain and simple.

I checked back and noticed that this answer is consistent with Herr's motivation for voting Combination. His vote remained on Combination due to him thinking that he was Lurker-Scum. Herr did not buy the writing a paper thing.

I particularly dislike when people assume that real life excuses are fake. Whether it's fake or not, it shouldn't weigh in on your opinion of someone's play.

Unvoting pending replacement is not a particularly bad thing. It's the way you do it. I asked to see if your reaction was scummy. It was not.

[guille2015]

I think it should be clear my suspects lie in numberQ, Nek, and HerrR. Klick is also on my radar. Beyond that I'm not doing a summary just to satisfy you.

I can understand your position on NQ and Nek. But I would like to hear your opinion on HerrRudi.

[guille2015]

^This is interesting. I would expect mafia to claim if they are about to be killed in-order to either save themselves or pull out a counterclaim. I think Klick is right to handle this on a case by case bases. It would really depend on how scummy somebody is and what not.

[guille2015]

I haven't paid attention to this game lately. I will get into that tomorrow. From what I have glanced at, Disturbed has become consistent in his reads and bitmap needs to give his reads in the game. I am eager to hear from him.

[guille2015]

I am writing this as I am reading so the comments are base on the posts as they appear. Starting at post #231

MoI's action reflect a town mindset. I have yet to play with scum MoI so I don't know if it would be noticeably different (My guess is no). But his arguments are sound and consistent and reflect some of my reads. I disagree with the CC proposal, but I don't see it for a problem until we get a claim. Then I think we can deal with it, accordingly.

I don't know about Nekoko. Her post #234 makes sense. Her concession for unvoting Disturbed is makes sense. His position on NQ at the time makes me keep an eye on him.

Venmar's post #236 feels like a loaded question. MoI never said NQ flaking was a scum tell. He's pretty much doing the opposite of what Herr did and announcing it.

I did not like A_potatoes reaction to Nekoko's vote.

<enter joke about walls>

waiting for Klick content based post.

Shamrock's post #249, noted.

Klick's post #250: some content. I'm glad that players are questioning his reads afterwards. Looking good because of this are Shamrock and Lord M.

From the interaction between Cheery, Lord M and Disturbed. Disturbed is looking better at this point. I expect to unvote him at the end of this wall. I have the same opinion from Cheery that Lord M seems to just be asking question. However I tend to do this too I think asking questions opens up conversations. LM's reaction to cheery, I did not like. Will have to check if this is consistent during the entire day.

MoI: "@Guile – what do you think of Klick?" I'll get to it on my next post. I'm suspicious of some of the things he's done lately, not helping that he beat me in the Fire and Ice Game using the same tactic he did here. Will read up on him since I haven't giving him much attention prior.

Good resume #299 from Bitmap. I've heard he's a good player. I think he was a hydra with Om at some point, so he is familiar with Om's thought process. I agree with him that Shamrock need a bit more attention.

Bitmap's #313: I thought Bitmap had a town read on MoI. The Klick/Bitmap thing around here lead Klick to lean on Bitmap as Town. Don't know what to think about it.

Cheery #319: Defends Om for not playing at his meta. While I agree that this seems likely, I find it odd that it was pointed out this way.

Noted OMGUS vote from Potato #321

I'll stop here at 337. I can deal with the rest without this awful wall thing. I expect not to fall back on this game again.

---

TL;DR: MoI is town for the time being. Nekoko is worse than how I thought he started. MoI point's out that he lowered his aggressiveness and footprint once the pressure began to drop from him into other people. Klick, I'll talk later. Bitmap's response makes him better than NQ was. I get Good vibes and bad vibes from Cheery Dog. I am suspicious of LordM. I think Om's demotivation is real, but this is not reflective of his alignments. Most of what I have read in this wall is OMGUS. I will read up on him more carefully. I think Shamrock needs more contribution. Yes pot kettle black, I get that a lot.

Disturbed is likely to be Town newbie then Scum newbie.

Unvote: Disturbed

---

@

Nekoko

: What's your read on Bitmap?

[guille2015]

@Guile

– if you are going to reference specific posts please use the [post=XXX][/post] (where XXX is the actual post number in thread) feature going forward.

I've heard he's a good player. I think he was a hydra with Om at some point, so he is familiar with Om's thought process.

Whoever told you that about Bitmap was lying. He’s not a good player. He did hydra with Om at one point – it was in fact the game that I brought up to Om earlier where he was well off-base – [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=22693]Open 425[/ur]. Also – I don’t think a single hydra occurance makes someone read proficient in general and I certainly don’t think it does for Bitmap.

I will use the post thing, thanks. It's better then the way I used to do it which was annoying and why I stopped doing it.

As for Bitmap. I played with him once and he was bad. But I read a bit about that hydra game and a couple more games from Bitmap and he has improved substantially since that time I played with him. Thinking back, I think he was scum in those games. I am using my fallible memory here though. Now the reason that I said that, which I realize it did not come clear in my post, is because I want to point out that Bitmap is good enough to overturn a scum-NQ slot with good posts. Which in turn means that we should be careful.

[guille2015]

How about actually being in a scum team with PMysterious... and then winning?

Klick did that too. lol.

Actually, I am sorry I brought up the whole Bitmap is good thing. This discussion isn't getting nowhere really.

[guille2015]

Vig should kill MoI because I can't read the fucker, I want to trust him but I can't. Just make it simpler for me.

I am assuming this is tongue in cheek. However, htis is a bad Idea. The Vig should not Kill MoI, much less for this reason. If he is town, he is a valuable asset, if he is scum, he will get found out eventually.I find him town though, so I do not approve of any plan to lynch him. I'll have to read the arguments behind Klick and Bitmap's vote on him because I don't see them.

[guille2015]

I just checked the ISO for Bitmap. Although numerous, I see a pattern, most of his posts are one liners. The longest posts are those in which he defends himself. His MoI vote is insubstantial and he has barely said anything of nekoko, who is the next largest bandwagon.

Me thinking here that if he was scum and Nekoko were town, we would have found his vote there, except that he is on MoI. I would think that that is what I would expect. So I am assuming that the above is not the case.

@

Bitmap

: Tell us why you think Nekoko is town now?

As for Nekoko, did an ISO on her. In general, nekoko's play seems to be reactive to the posts around her. I disliked her unvote for potato, seems bad. Seems like that type of vote where the wagon is not going anywhere so you go else where. Going to Venmar is interesting. Venmar and Shamrock are two that have caught my attention. As with bitmap, I would think that Nekoko would vote for the him if Nekoko was scum and bitmap was town. Nekoko also finds Bitmap townie. It seems to me that they are either both town or both scum.

I can comfortably vote for either of them. I have no clear priority on either, but I can easily lynch any.

---

On Klick his posts are similar to Bitmaps. Perhaps that's why they like each other. His posts have not been helpful. Post #250 is pretty on the fence. I liked the bitmap angle he took to gauge at his alignment (316). I also did not like his vote on MoI. I don't see a method to it and it reeks of OMGUS. However, having studied his ISO in the game were he beat me as scum, and in which I gave him a town read, I can say that as scum he is much more helpful. He also posted a lot less in that game. I am hesitant to vote for Klick today.

[guille2015]

If you think I am Town then you need to realize his voting me for the reasons he did is a pretty strong Town-tell given the circumstances.

I had already stated that my suspicions of his slot were reduced by HerrR and Klick both voting him. So his reasoning for voting me (which is essentially butthurt that I called him a VI) does not make any sense from a Scum perspective.

Bitmap knows he isn’t getting me mislynched. So going all Emo and voting me for patently stupid reasons only risks me re-examining his case if he his scum. As Benmage puts it – no need to wake the dragon.

Counter-point that to Klick whose suspicion of me only comes AFTER I start holding his feet to the fire. That’s much more likely scum behavior when it comes to me.

@Guile – deadline is in 2 days. Why are you insisting on fence-sitting between Bitmap and Nekoko? Commit to a vote!

You are right of course. There is no point in me being indecisive. So, basically what you are saying is that going after you would mean that you will scrutinize them further. Makes sense, I guess. Unless your scum though.

Cheery dog makes sense in his previous post. I am leaning on Nekoko being more scummy than Bitmap.

Vote Nekoko

[guille2015]

I am satisfied with my vote were it is. The argument argument for a Klick Lynch is sound.

If Bitmap gets lynched and flips scum then it gives me way more incentive to get kondi lynched tomorrow, but if kondi gets lynched and flips scum the connection isn't as strong.

I don't see it.

[guille2015]

So, he is voting for his scum buddy Klick in order to frame you later? It's true that if that is the case then certainly you are correct that Bitmap's scum flip could be used as a way to make Klick look town. I have a felling that that would only be the case if Klick is the Goon. I don't see scum busing their mayor roles.

[guille2015]

To get MoI lynched afterward.

How about we actually lynch scum instead of two people that don't like the face of each other?

Are klick and MoI town?

[guille2015]

Klick is the scummiest player here. The 1v1 is a gambit, the self-vote is a gambit.
@Mhork You're going to need to compromise eventually.

So, his self vote is a gambit to what purpose. Will he not get lynched if he self votes. If he flips scum, will that mean that MoI is town or scum or nothing, and if he flips town, what does it mean? Magnets, How do they work? I am not seeing it. I personally don't appreciate self voting, though.

[guille2015]

Klick is the scummiest player here. The 1v1 is a gambit, the self-vote is a gambit.
@Mhork You're going to need to compromise eventually.

So, his self vote is a gambit to what purpose. Will he not get lynched if he self votes.

I have never seen a town selfvote. From what I've seen scum do it to try to make people think they are townies who know their death doesn't mean their team will lose.

If he flips scum, will that mean that MoI is town or scum or nothing,

As I've said the 1v1 is shit so it doesn't clear MoI but it does make him look town.

and if he flips town, what does it mean?

Rereading of the thread.

Magnets, How do they work? I am not seeing it. I personally don't appreciate self voting, though.

Yeah... Just 'cause you've not seen it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Townies vote themselves all the time for multitudes of reasons--gambits, frustration, etc. I don't buy the theory that klick is scum just 'cause of a self vote.

As has already been said, the 1v1 is stupid. No matter what klick flips, I don't think it proves anything on MoI. This is just a fight between two people that don't like each other. >.<

I agree with this.

Voting for yourself does happened as town, but I do not see a purpose to it. Additionally considering that getting lynched and flipping town will spur someone else's Lynch is bad play in my opinion.

[guille2015]

My vote will go to Nekoko, basically for the reasons stated above. Just waiting for everyone to check in.

I don't need a wall or a complete read list - just who you think is scum and a brief explanation of why.

This.

Why I wanted the 1v1 to continue into today is because I wasn't going to be following through with it on the death of one of the contestants yesterday, and I unless you do something obvscummy today I probably will continue with not going through with it today.

I would think that leaving a play like this for later in the game might would be very risky. I still think it was a stupid play nonetheless.

[guille2015]

Nekoko's reasoning for voting elsewhere is so transparent the fact it isn't obvtown is disgraceful. I find it interesting she was the target of the D2 quick wagon.

VOTE: guille2015

His last post was basically "hey guys I think the target of the current wagon is scummy but I'm just here to test the waters before posting."

He needs to get to L-1 ASAP. Let's see how he handles pressure.

Uh, What! I got a vote!! AHhhh, Panic! *Runs around in circles.* What else do you want me to do?

So, basically, here you are saying that Nekoko is town for his desperation in self preservation? The odd thing about it that it was the 2nd vote. Town self preservation usually votes for the player with an equal chance of getting lynched, which would have been bitmap at the time. The difference here is that Nekoko kept saying that Venmar was town, hence his vote for Klick, which he could have also gone for MoI. There is something odd in all that reaction. No, I am very comfortable with my Vote intent.

[guille2015]

Yes, knowing and thinking are completely different things.

but the other point is correct, I somehow placed the "un" at the start of changed.

I'll put you back to L-2 since I had misread that sentence, and I don't really want the possibility of a lynch going through two pages into day 2.

UNVOTE:

Actually, Leaving a suspected scum at L-1 when there is quite a bit of discussion that needs to take place. Scum can easily self hammer or hammer if it's not the same person and thus eliminating whatever discussion we can get.

I am particularly interested in MoI's explanation on why those two town PRs should claim. I have a feeling I know the answer and I expect to agree if it's the same thing I am thinking.

[guille2015]

I completely suspect that both nekoko and The Director are both mafia. Some hints here and there in their ISO, but today's action are pretty much clear to me.

Vote Director

[guille2015]

So, basically, here you are saying that Nekoko is town for his desperation in self preservation? The odd thing about it that it was the 2nd vote. Town self preservation usually votes for the player with an equal chance of getting lynched, which would have been bitmap at the time. The difference here is that Nekoko kept saying that Venmar was town, hence his vote for Klick, which he could have also gone for MoI. There is something odd in all that reaction. No, I am very comfortable with my Vote intent.

What do you mean I kept saying Venmar was town??
I think Bitmap was more town than Klick so obviously I went with Klick.

Sorry, Not Venmar. I meant to say Bitmap!

[guille2015]

I completely suspect that both nekoko and The Director are both mafia.

Some hints here and there in their ISO, but today's action are pretty much clear to me.

Elaborate please

*In post 75, Nekoko gives a low level suspicion of Venmar for his non-RVS vote in Post 14. Then gives higher suspicion on Herrrudi and then votes Disturbed. Hints at distancing.
*In post 92, Venmar votes Nekoko for not being looked at. Nekoko slightly acknowledges this in post 112.
*In post 126, Venmar fully attacks Nekoko. I find it weak, but valid. Nekoko responsed with post 133 in which he added little refutation. This argument did not bring the attention of anybody in the thread. It's as if they fought each other and no one payed attention. Actually, only Herrrudi reacted to it, but he is dead now (GreyGnarl).
*A_P reacts in 174 giving him a slight bump towards town. A_P favors Venmar.
*After post 417 Nekoko starts to get pressure on him and places Venmar on her suspicion. Finally Voting for him. This post in itself is suspicious. This is after MoI voted for him. Drops his vote for A_P towards Venmar. I think her arguments for A_P were much better than her arguments for Venmar.
*Post 451, Nekoko changes his vote toward Klick. Who at the time had one vote and lots of attackers. Click self votes.
*In Post 469, Venmar says that Klick is scum and replies that He wants Nekoko Lynched. At this point Nekoko is at L-1. At the same time Klick's wagon is gaining steam while Nekoko loses it. At this point enter The Director (527,528)with a Vote on Klick. Notice the 1 minute difference between these two posts or the 10 minutes that passed after the directer replaced in. That's some fast reading to reach to the conclusion you reached.
*Every post after wards is the directors Insistence of Klicks Lynch. Take note that there is this whole 1v1 deal that if considered truthfully, after Klick is killed would have meant that MoI would have been lynched. I know understand why MoI agreed to it, since he expected not to be lynched due to his PR.
*Now, consider that the Director is again stearing (attempting) the wagon off of Nekoko.

I suspect that Nekoko is the Goon. Venmar went head on with a Bus on his buddy to gain street cred. Nekoko reacted aggressively but with very little commitment, thus consistent with a bus-distancing strategy. I wouldn't have noticed if it stayed that way and Nekoko had been killed, thus ensuring Venmar's Immortality, but when the wagon shifted and a better option that had the potential (-ly stupid) possibility of mislynching two towns showed up. It would seem that The Director can come in and favor the latter and have a completely different read than his slot. It is normal for someone that replaced in to have a completely 180 change in view, and the Director took advantage of this.

I would gather a guess that if the Nekoko Wagon had reached an imminent Lynch on Day 1, he would have claimed a PR to either save himself or draw out the real PR. Today, after MoI has claimed and the potential of the JK claiming today, I wouldn't expect Nekoko to claim any PR if his Lynch was imminent.

[guille2015]

Mod: I will be V/LA Until Tuesday November 6th.

[guille2015]

How is it even possible that you can guess if a person is goon??
You're twisting posts to make it look like we're somehow both scum.
I think it's scummy to hypothesize scum teams without even scum flip.

I can't help but see the connection in your posts. I guessed at who was the goon when I figured who was busing who. I aasume that in this game mafia will be reluctant to bus any of the other scum but the goon. I don't particularly think that Venmar had any good case against Nekoko, until later when the votes started piling in and the suspicion was stronger. Still, venmar was relentless.
Twisting posts? The posts are there and I have been open with my interpretation.
I'm hypothesizing based on three town flips and a conftown. I think I have enough data to work with.

[guille2015]

After this posting and a review of Nekoko's ISO I think Nekoko should be the lynch today. If she somehow flips Town I think a shot between LordM and Potato by the Vig (meaning don’t JK them) nets scum. And if she flips Mafia director should be perforated overnight.

I can get behind this. Before the lynch. Should A_P, LM and the director claim also, before the lynch is final?

[guille2015]

Vote Disturbed_One

I roleblocked him last night. I don't think he was the target. So it is clear that He is the actual Killer.

[guille2015]

Unvote

That Makes sense.

[guille2015]

Well, since it's possible that Disturbed might have been targeted, he is no longer a certain lynch. However, this means cheery is 100% scum. Must be desperate or strategic to CC me. I had you as a town read, good job on that.

[guille2015]

guille, who did you target Night 1?

I stayed away from Nekoko and Bitmap. had to leave the Vig get a shot. I Jailed Distrurbed_One. I considered Jailing Moi, but decided against that. I thought Disturbed got away easy, and made sure he wasn't doing anything at night.
The reason I picked D1 again was mostly because I didn't think anyone else was more suspect. Now that I am thinking this more clearly, there is a possibility that he was a target. Perhaps, mafia was shooting for the JK or Vig, risking that MoI was not going to investigate the BackUp JK.

I understand the position, Cheery and I are in. From the rest of your perspective one of us is scum. From my perspective I know Cheery is scum. I'll go reread the thread and check to see hints that would help me prove me right.

[guille2015]

I think the Vig should not claim yet. I want to go through some scenarios. And they require that the vig not claims. I'll post in a little while.

[guille2015]

I apologize. I have not finished my scenarios. It's More complicated than I thought and I have to now take into account that the Vig is confirmed which reduces the probabilities of success. I am looking at every angle and every possibility based on the best play from both Scum and Town. I'm going of in V/LA now so I will conclude this on Monday. I'll try to work on it during the weekend if I have the chance, but there is Halo4 so I don't think it likely.

Mod: I will be V/LA until Monday.

[guille2015]

7 are alive –

Town RoleCop (me)
Town Jailkeeper
Town Vig
VT times 2

Scum Backup Jailkeeper
Scum Goon

Live players include:
Angry_Pidgeon (A_P for short, hey coincidence)
Cheery Dog
MagnaofIllusion
Disturbed_One
guille2015
Lord Mhork
Shamrock

I will refer to myself as the JK and Cheery as SJK. This is because I want everyone to understand all the bases. Whether you are unsure of who is scum, would not matter for the purpose of this exercise. Also, A_P and L will be reffered to as VTA and VTB, which either could scum along with D1. MoI is RC and Sham is Vig.
Trying to figure out the best way to set the scenarios: At this point we have two options:

Lynch Disturbed_One

(Or any other VT, but a better chance of hitting scum with D1)

1. D1 is Scum (33%)
   
   1. JK jail SJK, No deaths, MoI confirms, Town Wins.
   
   
2. D1 is Town (67%)
   
   1. JK pick one of either RC or Vig with a flip of the coin. Mafia will likely do the same for a 50% chance of success. MoI should attempt to investigate one of the JK's to confirm, in the even that the coin flips Vig. Three results.
      
      1. No one dies. 50%
         
         1. Moi blocked (50%): Lynched VTA
            
            1. VTA is scum: Town Wins.
               
            2. VTA is town: JK blocks VTB or SJK, Mafia will kill Vig.
               
               • No deaths 50%: Town Wins.
                 
               • Vig Dies 50%: No Lynch possible and 50% chance of JK blocking actual Killer.
                 
                 • Kill blocked: Town cannot win. Best result is a Tie. 50%
                   
                 • Kill not Blocked: Town Loses. 50%
            
            
         2. Moi notBlocked (50%): Lynched SJK. JK Blocks VTA, Vig Kills VTB. Town Wins
         
         
      2. MoI dies. 25%, VTA Lynched
         
         1. VTA is scum. JK blocks SJK, Lynch SJK, Town wins.
            
         2. VTA is Town. Vig has to take the shot or Loose. Scum will attempt to Kill the vig, so in other for Town to Win, the JK needs to Jail the shooting scum and Vig needs to kill the other. Town wins 25%.
         
         
      3. Vig dies. 25%, VTA Lynched
         
         1. VTA is scum. JK blocks SJK, Lynch SJK, Town wins.
            
         2. VTA is Town. Mafia wins.
      
      
   2. JK picks one of VTA, VTB or SJK to Block. Per Cheery's suggestion. In this case scum will likely kill Vig because that will increase their chances of winning. as shown above. I won't do the rundown, because the numbers are similar to the above but with a less chance of town winning.

Lynching SJK

means town wins. Granted It's a 50% chance of winning or Losing from the point of view of those outside the JK Counterclaim.

The probabilities are done by Pure random selection of actions. Flipping the coin is suggested to avoid WIFOM interactions but the probabilities behind of the flipped coin tend to be the same of the educated WIFOM guesses. In general Lynching the claimed VTs required us to find the scum VT in Two lynches, else town losses. The chances are good, but I have to advocate for a Cheery Lynch for that guarantees a win.

[guille2015]

Wait? He was also a Jailkeeper?

Messiah must have messed up.

[guille2015]

Oh, Wait, I'm actually the vig!

[guille2015]

And of course, I'm just messing around. It was a good game. Can't talk more though, I'll give my impressions soon,

[guille2015]

Here is the mafia QT. http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/yx4FSp26pzG. I do not think there will be a problem. If they do have a problem, then I guess we can delete it.

Nekoko and Disturbed played a very good game. I feel bad that I failed them and I take full responsibility for this loss.

I made two fatal mistakes: The first was to send disturbed to make the kill rather than myself on night 2. I failed to take into account the implications that meant him getting blocked. When I saw that our kill on Cheery did not go through, I immediately knew that we would have lost if Disturbed got Lynched, which is the standard approach for when someone is jailed and a kill doesn't go through. So I had to come up with a plan to save the game. I figured I had to get Cheery Lynched. But then I paniced and Said I blocked Disturbed. 10 minutes later I realized my 2nd fatal mistake in which I should have said that I blocked Cheery instead. That would have gotten us a better chance of winning.

Regardless it was fun playing this game even if my heart almost flew out through my mouth when the Night 2 results came in.

MoI was the best player and our biggest threat. He figured out the best strategy to win this game even if I tried to convince him to kill Cheery.

Messiah, Thanks for running this game! I think I'll play this setup again, at some point. I also liked playing with this group of players especially MoI. I look forward to facing you again.

[guille2015]

I should have said that I blocked Cheery instead. That would have gotten us a better chance of winning.

Not sure that would have mattered. Mhork was getting a pass either way. The only thing that may have changed was more pressure on me over Disturbed.

But GG, that was definitely the fastest game I've replaced into.

MoI played very well.

After the CC, three town who commented said they thought Cheery was scum, including MoI. I had the advantage at the time.

I was going to try and get pressure on you, but the votes on D1 came too fast, and Real Life is taking a tow on me this week.

[guille2015]

MoI was a prime candidate for a Jail. We wanted to avoid that. We went for a safer shot mostly random.

[guille2015]

Guille, I wouldn't be so hard on yourself. Your day play was quite good (and the best of the scum team, definitely), and that's worth a lot. Like MoI was saying, the real mistake was having Disturbed_One send in the kill; your panic afterwards was mostly inconsequential as the town was going to win at that point anyway. The night play choices stuff should come along better with more experience, and you seem to be well on your way there.

This makes me giddy inside! Thanks.