Open 500 - Popcorn Mafia: Game Over!

[borkjerfkin]

Shoot: Gambler's fallacy

And he doesn't look like he's the mod here.

Not

yet.

[borkjerfkin]

i fully support blasting the hydra. kind of a win win with that.

a confirmed hydra is probably a better shooter than a single player account.

and dead scum is, well, dead scum. i probably would have already shot them myself. your patience is commendable.

This is the only really scummy thing I've seen yet -- mainly because I don't actually think you'd do that with the gun. I don't know how the underlined is even close to a strong enough point for you do up and say that icing the hydra is a huge pro-town move regardless of what they flip.

[borkjerfkin]

Nacho --> Jacob, Jacob is scum, we win.
Nacho --> Jacob, Jacob is town, Nacho dies, Jacob gets gun.
Jacob --> TIP, TIP is town, Jacob dies, TIP gets gun.
Jacob --> TIP, TIP is scum, Town wins.

The middle two of these scenarios blow; how is this superior to just scumhunting normally? Why is it important that we go after Jacob of all people and not someone else?

[borkjerfkin]

Because Jacob, in my mind, is scum. So it is better to shoot him now

That's not really the angle you were pushing in the post I quoted. You said shooting him gives tons of information -- how is shooting him right now different than shooting someone else, infowise?

How do you possibly have a strong enough scumread on Jacob that you want him dead now? He hasn't posted a damn thing of value yet. It seems like you're trying to subtly push the information point to cover the fact that you want him dead with more confidence than your read on him should dictate.

[borkjerfkin]

you obviously don't know me. and are an idiot. have you ever heard the saying "two heads are better than one?" there is basically thousands of years of evidence to support it. so whatevz.

What the fuck prompted that reaction?

[borkjerfkin]

If this is gonna be a game full of ad hominem from you just tell me now so I can go on record saying I want you dead and ignore you the rest of the game. You also didn't really address my point -- should we just policy shoot hydras in this setup simply because they're hydras? Would you go on record saying that this is a good idea?

[borkjerfkin]

Three shitty people (not trying to argue that any of you M girls are such) with a gun is easily worse than one good person with a gun. How is this not obvious?

You said it yourself: He hasn't posted a damn thing of value yet.

Yes. Why is your read on him not null?

[borkjerfkin]

And Jacob's gamblers fallacy post was a really obvious joke.

[borkjerfkin]

borkbork
how's your ratio?

How often do I hit scum? I'm getting better but I second guess myself too much (See Micro 151 that just ended). This game seemed like a good opportunity to see what happens when I don't get a chance to do that.

[borkjerfkin]

borkbork
how's your ratio?

How often do I hit scum? I'm getting better but I second guess myself too much (See Micro 151 that just ended). This game seemed like a good opportunity to see what happens when I don't get a chance to do that.

you being scum when arc angel's in the game
that ratio

oh, lol

all good things must come to an end

[borkjerfkin]

I think notscience is town as shit right now for #132 and I don't think Fegelein has adequately explained why he thinks it's scummy.

Wisdom is null to me. I'm not starting this off like I started off Micro 151 cause this play reeks of exactly what he was doing there and he was town. I'm waiting for analysis from these questions he's asking.

[borkjerfkin]

Him forgetting about the pre-game joke he made so soon felt strange. His pushes are good, but they are all very easy; obviously shooting town is a bad thing, but that's not really that interesting. I also don't like the "oh I can't read Wisdom because I misread him recently", it screams scum theatre to me.

I'd love to straighten this up:

1) "Shooting town = bad y'all" was not the premise of any point I made. People's flimsy justification (dj/pope) for doing it with the caveat of "we either get information!! or it's a hydra that'll be so great!!!" as being the primary motivator for this over "Hey I think they might be scum" IS the premise.
2) I don't know what to say about the Arc thing -- it's not that important to me. I'm town, so my streak is over.
3) I meant what I said about Wisdom - this is exactly how he opened Micro 151 (undirected questions with rare followup) and I read him as scum for it. Check the game out. Wisdom, your thoughts on this?

DJ's weird for having Arc on his list but not Jacob -- they're both huge lurksacks, why's one more scummy than the other?
Feregein's push on NS still seems disingenuous.
TIP reminds me of Remembrance town.
NS is town.
Mollie is doing her best not to put me in her town pile in #325 even though everything she says there makes it seem like she should be.

Anyone else I don't have an opinion about yet.

fuck hydras

[borkjerfkin]

If I had to shoot immediately it'd be one of DJ/Feregein. I'd not shoot right away though.

[borkjerfkin]

Why is that?

[borkjerfkin]

Jacob's as high as he is because I feel he's being victimized and used as an easy target here.

This doesn't match your reads -- who is the scum pushing a Jacob shot if he's an easy target?

[borkjerfkin]

On a more serious note, that's how I play. My ego is big. Doesn't have anything to do with my alignment.

I'm having trouble reconciling this with your mantra that town shouldn't care how they look (I've seen you say this more than once as town)

[borkjerfkin]

not only that, but [don's] reaction to Borky looks weird and a few posts after stating that he trusts me, he states that he would shoot us not because we are scum but because we are a hydra... I still don't understand the mindset behind trading one hydra for another

Glad somebody fucking noticed.

[borkjerfkin]

NS is still town and is ESPECIALLY not scum if d_j flips scum due to the post above this one.

(Don, AA, Feg) right now. AA is definitely active lurking at this point -- she is active elsewhere. Feg came out looking weird when Oil said they were shooting TIP -- his best denunciation of that was "well his meta should indicate that his playstyle this game could come from either alignment" which is hardly a ringing endorsement of TIP town, yet it still seemed he wanted to denounce that shot choice pretty definitively.

Maybe Bert as an outlier just cause I don't have a good handle on him -- everyone else I feel decently about.

[borkjerfkin]

The situation changed:

AA is posting all over the site and not here. That wasn't determinable at the beginning of the game, and Jacob is not doing that.

That "joke" is something i made outside of this game and before it even started, but it's good that you're willing to parrot other people's arguments without understanding what the hell they're talking about.

[borkjerfkin]

You mentioned that you feel decently about everyone else (which includes Jacob).

Why do you feel decently about Jacob now?

He hasn't done anything scummy (#456 in particular reads gut town); why is Jacob a special case here? Why don't you care about my other reads?

And if this is parroting, it's adding to your aura of suspiciousness, which is why I mentioned something that a confirmed townie mentioned.

You really want to play the "I'm just repeating something confirmed town said" card? Especially when you obviously didn't understand the context behind the point you repeated? I don't know if OT was just gauging my reaction to the question, but he never tried to push that point as something scummy, which you conveniently ignored when you parroted him.

Or are you trying to tell me that whatever I said to/about AA in the open queue is something I'm obligated to bring up once the game starts? That is a standard I should be held to? Because that is dishonest.

You call others weird for leaving people out of reads, and I am here calling you weird for not being as consistent as you demand others to be.

The situation changed:

AA is posting all over the site and not here. That wasn't determinable at the beginning of the game, and Jacob is not doing that.

Why are you ignoring my response?

[borkjerfkin]

Has Arcangel said anything particularly scummy?

No.

Jacob is posting elsewhere too?

His posts in this game are commensurate with his overall activity level on the site and in other games. AA's are not (even close).

p-edit:

His thoughts are of significance here, so I don't see anything wrong with making that point. Defensive much?

You attacked me, and you attacked me for something idiotic that you did not read up on, so instead of trying to weasel in a semantic argument by calling my response "defensive", go ahead and explain how that response is scummy (since you're implying it is by making this comment) and prove to me that you're not just flinging shit.

Thoughts are still thoughts, regardless if Oil felt the need to push forward that point.

He barely pushed it, I responded, and we moved on. I'll ask again: what do YOU think: should I be admonished for not bringing in outside game influences (that involve other people in this game) voluntarily at the start of a game?

[borkjerfkin]

Also, I did not say I did not care for your reads. Do you expect me to say I care about your other reads? I point out things I find suspicious. I do not see you telling me that you care about my reads. How about acknowledging mine? And everyone else in the room's?

Considering that my grievances with don and Fegelein (and earlier TIP, but he looks town now) had everything to do with reads: what are you talking about? Why are you inferring that I don't care about your reads? I never said nor implied it.

I found it odd that your initial angle only had to do with Jacob, which is why I asked the question.

[borkjerfkin]

All you said was "fuck hydras" after your post on Remilia, so that leaves US all in the dark about what your reads are unless we go back and connect the dots (for those of us who don't know your hydra name).

I don't know what to tell you -- I thought it was obvious that was me and that it was a hydra slip. It was an honest mistake and I apologize for the confusion, but:

All you said was "fuck hydras" after your post on Remilia, so that leaves US all in the dark about what your reads are unless we go back and connect the dots

Please please tell me you're not hinting that you think I did this intentionally (I am honestly not sure how to read this sentence)

[borkjerfkin]

Do you have a handle now on whether you think I am scum then? Of course you will say my play is shit, and I'm not arguing with that - I've never lasted past a game day before - but still, I'm interested to hear now since I am your 'outlier.'

Well:

I think Don is scum -- I want him to be the first shot.

Between (TIP, NS, Feg) I think Feg is most likely the one scum there; they all have heavy interactions (which is why I don't think there is more than one scum there) but NS is gut towning for me and if one of TIP/Feg is scum pushing him it's definitely Feg.

AA is an active lurker which is suspicious due to her activity elsewhere. She is shootable.
JS is a passive lurker with a minor towntell. He is not shootable.

Wisdom is holding at a solid barely north of null right now but as I've previously mentioned his play is EXACTLY like a game I just got out of with him in it, and he was town there. If there's anything I don't like about his play it's that he will not interact with me so far -- I've asked him 1 or 2 questions that have not been answered.

I think Kerb is pretty town for her high level of paranoia, picking up on my point about Don, reading NS as town, and I just like Maragal's #492 overall.

You're the outlier in the sense that I didn't really know where to put you prior to this talk. Now that we've had it, I don't like the initial reasons behind your push on me, and before you posted #571 I might have called you scum over AA, but #571 looks like you're legitimately trying to figure me out. Additionally:

Of course you will say my play is shit, and I'm not arguing with that - I've never lasted past a game day before - but still, I'm interested to hear now since I am your 'outlier.'

This sort of pathos generally comes from town. So you're not one of my top shot preferences.

[borkjerfkin]

Also I like the majority of your reads so that's ++ for you too

[borkjerfkin]

^^ nice omgus.

Nice misrep

[borkjerfkin]

I've already mentioned this:

the fact that you think hydra is your best shot because they're a hydra and "more heads are better and there's scientific research that can totes be applied to this particular game with these particular people" is total bullshit.

You're also throwing down scumreads but not adding them to your list (asking NS who his partners are implies you think he's scum) but you're still favoring people that are "flying under the radar" (AA/me?) and hydras (kerb) simply because they're a hydra OVER PEOPLE YOU THINK ARE SCUM? Nope.

Whereas it has nothing to do with the fact that I'm pissed that I'm on your list simply because I am me. THAT would be OMGUS.

its a win win. like i said earlier. marangals not playing nice. i thought she would. tips the scale ever so slightly.

What does this even mean?

Jacob was on your list and then he was off your list. What changed?
Wisdom was off your list and then he was on your list. What changed?

[borkjerfkin]

That should not tell you that I am town; who says I can't play the way I played last game as scum too?

I am aware of this; at the same time I see a lot of parallels in your play this game to your play last game. I think it's appropriate to say that that meta analysis is enough for a slight townread. It's inductive reasoning, but all mafia is inductive reasoning.

[borkjerfkin]

@don -- you said earlier in the game:

have you ever heard the saying "two heads are better than one?" there is basically thousands of years of evidence to support it. so whatevz.

This was, and still is, awful justification for having kerberos on your list, compared to standard scumhunting. Orders of magnitude worse. That "thousands of years of evidence" does not allow you to generalize, for this the specific situation, that the hydra will necessarily make good decisions if you shoot them and they flip town just because three people occupy that slot. You should be shooting for scum, period - hitting scum SO SEVERELY outweighs any consolation prize you receive by shooting a "useful townie"

I am so done talking about this.

http://www.google.com/webhp?hl=en&tab=n ... 24&bih=684

Don't be obtuse. How does Maragal's not being nice translate to anything?

wisdom asked to be on the list. so i obliged.

what

[borkjerfkin]

you act as thought i am making a HUGE push to solely get the hydra shot. that simply isn't the case. just because i'm not townreading the hydra, doesn't mean they are my only suspect. also, you seem to have little faith in oil. the decision at this point is theirs. not mine. i am here to offer suggestions.

No?

did i miss some stuff? if anyone still needs a question answered, just ask.

wisdom: not sure what you said a few pages back about my reads. can you restate that?

my list is not difficult to decipher.

kerb: i actually laughed. thanks for that. what "reaction" to bork are you talking about? their play has been totally unimpressive so far.

feg: so wait. i put you on my list, and suddenly i am on your list?

oil: shoot the hydra.

[borkjerfkin]

Jacob's possible scum for sure, but Feg is more likely to me. Wisdom is possible but I'd shoot Jacob over Wisdom right now.

I agree on the other two.

[borkjerfkin]

I am leaning town on you, but I'm townreading TIP, Kerb, and NS town over you, so somewhere on the PoE chain if I'm wrong about the others I'd come back to you.

[borkjerfkin]

NS I thought you were reading TIP as scum?

[borkjerfkin]

I'm "willing to call you scum" if I'm more confident in other townreads and other scumreads turn up wrong, but really that's not a bridge I'd cross until it came to that -- interactions at that point would be more important. I don't get your beef with this.

I'm also not sure why you would in one post try to denigrate my townreading you via meta (#580) and then in the post above me complain that the read isn't that strong. Explain how those lines of thought aren't at odds with each other.

[borkjerfkin]

I acknowledge the read on you is weak. I don't think you play the same all the time, nor was that what I said.

Why are you postulating that I might "change it at any second" when I haven't done that?

[borkjerfkin]

My read on you is weak = I'm not sure if I'm correct or not, therefore you're worth mentioning. It was also a reference to where Jacob stands in relation to my other, non-scum reads.

p-edit: you're like 5th:

don, feg, aa, jacob are all before you. You interpreted whatever you read wrong.

[borkjerfkin]

Jacob's possible scum for sure, but

Feg

is more likely to me. Wisdom is possible but I'd shoot Jacob over Wisdom right now.

I agree on the other two

. [AA and Don]

The underlined are my scumreads, and this was a response to NS where he put two of them in there, which I was agreeing with.

[borkjerfkin]

I see no reason to mention your townread there and say you'd shoot one of the three scumreads over it.

You see no reason to mention someone I'm barely leaning town on? You're wrong.

p-edit: that's not fucking out of nowhere, it's, as I just said, showing you're a weaker read than the other three as well as where Jacob fits in the order.

[borkjerfkin]

Why am I only allowed to talk about what he asks me about?

[borkjerfkin]

Pretend I quoted 612 here. I have no desire to repeat myself.

[borkjerfkin]

Hey, Borkie when did you start town-reading us? I don't remember you mentioning us as town at all

I think Kerb is pretty town for her high level of paranoia, picking up on my point about Don, reading NS as town, and I just like Maragal's #492 overall.

Slight scumread [on bork]

Why?

Bork you’re once again using the circumstances to look like town. This is what you have been doing with me from past two games where you were scum. And why exactly Jacob is minor town while he didn’t’ say anything either? And I also see you being soft with Hydra.. something is cooking..

What the hell is this? "Using the circumstances to look like town?" Explain what that means and how it's scummy because that just looks like you want to read me as scum but you have no reason to. I looked like town all the times I've beaten you as scum so I must be scum again? Are you fucking serious?

I said exactly the post I read as town from Jacob. How am I being "soft" with kerberos? The fact that I'm townreading them? How

should

I be acting toward them instead?

[borkjerfkin]

Again when did I say i read you scum?

I am leaning scum on Wisdom, slightly on bork and probably POPE

Says pretty definitively you're leaning scum slightly on me.

Where did I say Jacob was probably scum? The only people I want shot right now are (don/Feg/You). Jacob is 2nd tier with Wisdom/Bert.

You're not attacking the reasons I have for reading Kerb as town, you're attacking the number of reasons I'm giving.

[borkjerfkin]

AA I have no idea what point you're trying to make in #686.

[borkjerfkin]

@AA: Considering I was answering a leading question about the prospect of Jacob being scum, I answered honestly: I've not ruled him out as scum (how could I from the amount of content he's given) but he's not on my shortlist like he's on NS' shortlist. I read him as minor town; there are others I read as stronger town.

And again, I said I read you slightly scum, not entirely scum

*shrug* you asked why I thought I said you read me as scum, so I don't know what else to say to this.

And about your read on Kerbious, its not the number of reasons that you're basing to read them as town. its how you suddenly started reading them as town out of one post.

It was a good post with a lot of content. Again, you're attacking the amount of evidence I'm giving, not the quality of it. That is disingenuous.

I have no idea why you're bringing friends and enemies into this...I was scum and you were bleeding obvtown in that game so I had no choice but to read you as town. Neither of those apply to this game.

[borkjerfkin]

Yeah, my play is weird
[sarcasm]

Guys I am actually the Town Doctor

[/sarcasm]

I never wanted the gun, it just annoys me that Oil doesn't tell us anything about who he thinks he will shoot or who he finds scummy or whatever
Just give us something for the love of god

Bert has not convinced me of being town
Kerb has still not convinced me of being town
Kerb how can you say I am tunneling if only three of us are posting
I'm not completely sure on NS being scum because he is acting weird, but I'll be surprised if he's not scum
Wisdom is totally scum, just ISO him and look for the silly paradoxes and contradictions

Can you rank your scumreads rather than just throwing them into a pool and saying "shoot any of these?" If you had to choose now, who do you pick?

[borkjerfkin]

Eurgh. I've kinda been reading another game at the same time and I'm getting confused between the two.

Uh.

Lessee.

Don looked like scum for something.

Btw I'm a jailkeeper.

I like you

[borkjerfkin]

@NS -- when did I enter your scumlist?

@Kerb --

The tactics Wisdom is using to avoid the gun amuses me

What does this mean?

[borkjerfkin]

This is not at all acceptable, Bork.

Why?

Arc is slightly scum for you?
That doesn't seem right to me.
Also I thought your read on Wisdom was a bit stronger; you were attacking him decently heavily earlier.

I think his spat with me was fucking dumb -- I'm not sure where you're getting that I think it's disingenuous.

I explained why I have AA where I have AA.

She's avoided doing anything meaningful in the game and her entire interaction with me is filled with a lingering butthurt from another game; I've taken her to the cleaners as scum recently in a few games, but that's seeped into almost every post she's made about me and feels contrived at this point -- would not town AA be at least entertaining the possibility that I'm town being town?

[borkjerfkin]

Btw bork what? Why would you like me off that one post?

Your initial scumread is my top scumread

@Bork- I liked a lot of Wisdoms points against you, and it shifted it a bit. I'm kinda shaky on your slot though, I could easily see it being feg instead.

Pretty sure I remember you calling it bunk:

And now you're doing the same with me. I don't get it.

...And Wisdom, I kinda side with him on this one. Although I see your point, look at how many people he has to look through. 9. You're his 5th worst, also his 5th best(in terms of towniness). So, while I don't see why he brought it up, I can see his point. You're right on the border, and if he's wrong about one of them below you, that puts you with them. You're essentially in the null spot right now, which is kinda what I saw him saying.

So...? Where/why did that shift in opinion happen?

[borkjerfkin]

Man my heart was not in this one.

But anyway: list of people allowed to call me borky:

Spoiler:

Everyone, i love that shit

[borkjerfkin]

this is such an unfun setup to be scum in

[borkjerfkin]

moderation was good. thanks for the game

[borkjerfkin]

I am not even going to remotely attempt to defend my play this game, which was basically me unable to get over the hump of getting into the game when I didn't roll town. I feel like replacing out would have been a worse decision and tried to stick with it but it just wasn't happening.

I think it was pretty obvious that all 4 of us scum were pretty demotivated, but I was probably the worst compared to my normal play and it showed.

[borkjerfkin]

mollie if I ever hear the words "scum theater" out of your mouth this game as you're wont to say I will be upset

his and borky's exchanges smelled like scum theatre.