Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Belisarius]

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie

because OMGUS.

[Belisarius]

It's super risky

Elaborate. Risky for scum, or risky for everyone? Because I frankly don't see any risk there for town. It is guaranteed that there will be VTs in this game, what's wrong with being one?

[Belisarius]

Why not me or Smudger, if you're going by Hoopla's hypothesis?

[Belisarius]

Sure, if there's a reason for it besides "picking at random from amongst the top five"

If there's no actual reason, it's still RVS.

[Belisarius]

UNVOTE:

I don't like that case enough to vote Stryker, but I do like it too much to leave my RVS vote in play.

[Belisarius]

You know PPP's town? Or you have a townread on PPP, so a vote for him is scummy?

That's a hard misrep -- he's voting me because

I

declared a soft townread on PPP and he missed my unvote. I can tell this much and I'm the one being voted.

[Belisarius]

But why are you calling it a "hard misrep", Beli? That line of questioning was directed

at

TMTOL, not you. And neither TMTOL or YTWC appear to have any agenda towards misrepping you.

It's a hard misrep of TMTOL, not of me.[/quote]

Also, is that the only aspect of the game you feel is worth commenting on?

So far, yes.

[Belisarius]

Beli, why does your avi remind me of fuzzybutternut? Too lazy to check.

Both my current avatar and his former avatar are Kenneth Branagh as Hamlet.

The mafiascum.net user Hamlet (with another Branagh avatar) is a hydra of me and fuzzy.

My first pass through the thread using the Driver method hasn't been spectacularly fruitful, possibly because it was interrupted about 68 times, but I'm not liking the diction in #91 and #93. I want to do a couple more passes in a more well-rested, unrushed state before I drop a vote, though. The way things are going that might not be until Saturday.

P-edit: Yes you will.

[Belisarius]

I wouldn't laugh too hard. Xdaamno's methodology reminds me of Mark McClish. I'm hoping to have more in that same vein (albeit on other players) tomorrow. Tonight, work permitting, but I doubt it will the way things have been going.

[Belisarius]

Okay, I've now finished my passthrough using the Driver method as promised.

Every other time I've mentioned the Driver method, I've been queried on it, so I'll just answer the question before it's asked : The Driver method refers to using an aggregate of the methods taught by Janine "The Lyin' Tamer" Driver, which is something I've only been familiar with for about a week. I expect one of the ongoing games I've used it in to be completed before this one is, so I'll link to that if I'm still alive when the time comes.

My final thought on the result is that D1 is too early for it to be of significant utility. I've saved my notes, but won't be posting them in their entirety until a) we have a scumflip, or b) I'm posting them in the Dead QT, whichever comes first. This early, you're not missing much, since it just reads like an English professor with severe hemorrhoids ripping into everybody's diction, but later on rates of change in the quantity of Drivertells can be significant.

Anyone who wants to start using this method

exclusively

for Mafia would be better off reading up on Mark McClish's Statement Analysis method -- Most of Driver's work requires face-to-face content, and the part that doesn't is based on McClish.

Results are in the format of

Player

: Total Drivertells (line break)

Conclusion

.
Don't forget to take into account the length of each player's ISO when looking at their total Drivertells
Conclusions were written immediately prior to completing each player's ISO, so the early ones don't take the results of the later ones into account

Results:

Alabaska J

: 31

Extensive meta needed -- My gut's telling me that with a proper baseline I may be able to eliminate some or even all of the red flags noted.

Cade

: 1

Cade has only one post to analyse and it is a short one, so there's no help here.

Crimml

: 0

One post, no Driver-tells due to lack of content

Deckard

: 12, -1 for reverse-tell in #159 for a total of 11.

Deckard can be town forever given the high content:drivertell ratio

Mutleyddmc

: 2

Sadly, Mutleyddmc is probably town, although lack of non one-liner content renders the Driver method largely useless in a webforum context

Susan

: 16

Also has an exceptionally high content:drivertell ratio, verdict is probTown

Sakura

: 1

Null; only 8 posts in ISO, and only one slight drivertell. More content needed

Siveure

: 12

High content:drivertell ratio again...I'm starting to think D1 is probably too early to apply the Driver method, since I'm running out of players to ISO and still don't see scum :\ I *have*, however, discovered that I smoke and pace a lot more while fruitlessly Driver-diving, especially after the first hour.

Smudger

: 8

Yup, high content:drivertell ratio again

Stryker

: 2

insufficient content for Driver method to be useful

FREEDOM!

: 10

This is the first ISO that leaves me with a scumread -- There are more drivertells than posts, and multiple tells in several of them

Xdaamno

: 7

Lower content:drivertell ratio, but weak drivertells lead me to wanting more content before coming to a conclusion

Troubles

: 15

As in the case with Alabaska J, I think most of these red flags are stylistic in nature

[Belisarius]

VOTE: TMTOLBTWNTOF

[Belisarius]

pieceofpecanpie

[Belisarius]

One problem with your post, Beli, is nowhere in the post do you explain what a driver tell is, and what tells you claim to have found.

Actually I did, at the beginning where I explained what the Driver method is. This gives you enough information to google Janine Driver, learn about the method, and draw your own conclusions instead of relying exclusively on someone (me) who has just started using it.

Not sure what the system is, but shouldn't average tells per post be a better metric, with number of posts included for a precision estimation?

Yes it would. That information is already available to you.

Whatever conclusions you draw are irrelevant if you're scum, naturally,

The conclusions themselves would be; how I wrote them would not.

so you're an important one to read.

Why thank you.

PPP's driver to content ratio is WAAAAY higher than deckard.

Deckard is "town forever"

PPP is "probtown"

o_O

The order is important; you can see from my phrasing how much less confidence I have in content:tell ratio as I continue to find sweet fuck all this early in the game.

Also, Deckard has a reverse-tell. PPP does not.

[Belisarius]

I don't really have the time

My uninterrupted pass took four and a half hours. This is to establish a

baseline

, when I might not even be alive later on to take advantage of it. I do not feel bad about not putting in enough work.

I went and had a look at the site www.lyintamer.com all I could find was a lot of archive video footage of interviews, I could not actually find any links to a method that takes the content of a written document and gives you a result based on that content? Maybe I missed something? What I do see is that to truly understand her method I have to buy her book?

Well, of course her own site is going to try to encourage you to buy her books. My advice is not to do that unless you encounter a lot of face-to-face deception in real life. Her source material is much more useful in Mafia terms, but I studied that method over the run of about a month before trying to use it, frequently googling the subject matter independently, so if you just read her book your style of apporaching the method would differ from my own. The only source I directly remember that applies in a forum Mafia environment is McClish. If you're going to buy a book just for Mafia, buy his instead.

But you don't have to do that. All you have to do is wait and see. I fully intend to do further passes through the thread as the game progresses and post them for comparison with this baseline. If I'm alive, it'll be in this thread, if not it'll be in the Dead QT. Either way you'll get to see the results.

This is the first game I've used this method in from Page 1, so it's as much an experiment for me as for anyone else. I'm aware that what I've posted so far is insufficient in isolation and may well annoy the town enough to lynch me or scare the scum enough for them to shoot me, and that's a risk I'm willing to take in the name of SCIENCE!

you are stating that Freedom is giving the biggest scum read with a 10??

Yes, as the higher numbers are filled with more circumstantial tells. I expect the content:tell ratio of the scum to increase as the game goes on, but town's will remain consistent.

why you do not analysis yourself?

I already

know

my own alignment. Biased data is unscientific.

One further question, and I don't mean to offend any one:

Uh, who the hell is susan?

pieceofpecanpie

Pecans Bio says Male?

It's a pisstake based on a prior game I was in with him

So, direct responses done, the summary of what I'm doing with the Driver analysis is to pick apart everyone's diction and compare it to a list of things dishonest people say as compiled by a bunch of American cops (Driver was ATF, McClish was (maybe still is?) a US Marshal, both polled their colleagues for additional tells) and observe how that diction changes over time. Hence, posting all of my notes at this phase of the game would skew the results since the scum would know exactly what to stop doing long before any reliable results could be obtained.

[Belisarius]

I'm confident that it will show value by D3 that wouldn't have been present if it wasn't introduced D1. What each of you needs to decide is if you want to find out in-game, or afterwards when the Dead QT is posted. I will keep the experiment running alive or dead.

[Belisarius]

Well, that was eventful.

I initially thought Yesterday's case on Deckard was circumstantial, but Deckard and Sakura's responses to it strike me as flail-y. I'm fine with L-1 at the moment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Deckard

[Belisarius]

A hammer without a claim is one of the few policy lynches I can get behind, yeah.

PEDIT: God dammit, Mutley.

[Belisarius]

Do you honestly think someone would hammer without a claim?

It's happened before, it'll happen again.

With that being said, I 100%, absolutely, positively knew that Mutley was trolling at the t...oh fuck it who am I kidding

[Belisarius]

I'm definitely

never

using McClish (Driver) before mylo/lylo again. Townreading 2/3 of the scumteam and scumreading the cop is

not

the result I was hoping for ><