Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Smudger]

there is a mighty Dick? I bet all the girls love him,

VOTE: TMTOLBTWNTOF

for being a scrabble players tile rack

[Smudger]

touché Stryker, touché.

[Smudger]

UNVOTE:

Random other trends I noticed in PyP games.

The highest number ends up as the 4th number (although this one was sheer luck in one case as it only 2 unique and only 2 pairs lol)
The number 4 is always doubled up, and often last. (You guys suck.)

I am not very good with numbers, never have been, that's probably why I married an accountant. Anyway, while I see what is being offered here as a way of identifying scum through the numbers they pick for the draft I don't fully see it how it works. What I understand from Siveure is that scum will go for the low numbers in most games? using the theory (which seems to be misguided, based on what I have now seen linked and quoted in this thread) that they will be ignored because they believe town will go after a low number, but it is in fact the reverse. thus they usually end up wellplaced on the draft order after the draw?

But then when I looked at the linked game here 51. in all the linked games scum are spread through the draft but their number choices are, on the whole higher numbers thus giving them the chance to have a higher position after the draw? In fact when you look at the Post linked in #54 from the game linked in #54 its rather confusing as scum would appear well spread through the draft pick,

so basically there are 2 schools of thought here and they are contradictory to each other?

Belisarius then points out what is automatically on my mind after seeing that post in that game and the successive posts where this is dicussed

Why not me or Smudger, if you're going by Hoopla's hypothesis?

[Smudger]

rom reading those posts, their logic is similar to mine; i thought 4 was a low but safe number but of course i was wrong. i think if you gave two neighbors a quicktopic before the game, their discussion would be similar as well. i actually think this is more likely to be a manufactured ploy by scum Siveure DtTrikyp (he had those quicktopics on hand pretty fast) than town seeing scum voting 1 (although a bus with one of the two who voted 1 could be in the works), seeing as he voted a ridiculously low number to make sure he would not be implicated in his theory while being protected by the idea that that strategy guarantees you a unique vote, albeit the last one. i agree with the lottery fallacy by Xdaamno. btw, did i IC one of you newbie games? your name is very familiar to me.

why would you think Siveure is scum based solely him bringing to the table a meta that had anyone known about they would have probably done exactly the same thing if they knew about it. In particular considering the discussion that is now ensuing? IMO he was/is under no pressure to have actually revealed that information at that time, he could have kept it back and then only used it when he was pressured.

As for his choice of number, so what? he choose a number that probably no one would have thought about, and considering the information he has imparted regarding number choices and how they could be read then its a pretty good choice for a townie to ensure a good role pick and equally the same for scum. the difference is he chose to tell us about the number analysis, so why shoot himself in the foot?

[Smudger]

Mutley's behavior so am waiting to see how that pans out between him and pieceofpeacanpie. Any reason why you have not pursued this pieceofpeacanpie?

[Smudger]

Mutley's behavior

is strange

so am waiting to see how that pans out between him and pieceofpeacanpie. Any reason why you have not pursued this pieceofpeacanpie?

Fixed

[Smudger]

Guys, sorry RL in the way, but will catch up early tomorrow (live in Dubai so +4GMT) interesting to se e the wagon on Stryker although it was building when I was last here, but do also want to look at Mutley... and that will be tomorrow win the AM...

[Smudger]

OK so Mutley plays like the way he is all the time is what I now read and the discussion that is on going with regard to this is how is that beneficial and why should we not lynch him(Policy Lynch)? I don't get it though? if he is like this in most games and practically walks through D1 unhindered by adopting this playing style how does that help anyone determine his alignment, and why does he get away with it? I take it from this comment that it is worth the wait?

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?

[Smudger]

i'm sorry if you got the wrong impression, but it was his reaction to my post that was more the cause of my vote as opposed to the presentation of the theory itself, which is, in my mind, a nulltell. again, in a later post, i point out that the reason i brought up his number was NOT because it was a scumtell (another nulltell) but that i felt it was relevant info that he conveniently didn't fit into his theory and in fact didn't in a spectacular way. again, his response made me more suspicious.

but, his reasoning would in my eyes appear sound and, in isolation, work to an extent, the problem is though, and as it has been pointed out in thread, it is very much random and there are opposing possibilities, again which have been presented in the thread. , As for his reaction, taking into context, is that a reason for a vote?

[Smudger]

Case on Stryker:

post 12 - Posts a picture instead of RVS, Deckard calls him out for it in #14, which gets ignored

post 24 - I really dislike this post, needlessly discredits Siveure when I consider his #23 a pretty decent resource of quotes. If anything Siv's draft number pick is WIFOM, so there's no reason not to take Siv seriously if he's posting useful material, unlike the pointless fluff that Stryker throws down at the end of this post.

post 28 - Complaining about WIFOM when his last post was full of it. Strikes me as pretty contradictory, and looks like Stryker's beginning a pattern of reacting to other people's posts and criticising them while showing no initiative.

post 31 - Here come the major scumpoints. Take a look at that last sentence,

"There is not much point discussing why someone chose 1 over another numbers imo"

, but wait a minute wasn't Stryker critiquing Siv's number choice and speculating over town choosing number 1 in post 24? Wasn't Stryker speculating that scum wouldn't double up with numbers in post 28? So there's not much point in discussing numbers, but why is that all I've seen from Stryker? Although, to be more accurate, I'd label it reactionary critique and discrediting of other peoples posts while throwing out some waffly comments related to the draft order.

The only aspect of Hoopla's theory from the other game that I looked at was to consider where Stryker falls in the draft order. He chose 10, which is unique, so I still like my scum read. At this stage I would've only reconsidered the read if he'd been a 2 or a 4. That's not to say scum can't be in those numbers, it's just favourable for them to have unique numbers higher up the draft order.

@Belisarius

And that's why I'm

not

voting you or Smudger.

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

Well, yes and no.

It's not definitive, but it's a great indicator. Scum still could've deliberately doubled up - it's been done in one game before, by Hoopla no less - and I could also be scum who is now just misleading people with theories. The bottom line is go search for scummy players, that's what I'm doing as well, however once you've identified suspect players I reckon draft order theories have a good role to play in developing lynch lists or helping with PoE.

The two posts I'm referencing currently from Open 427's PYP game are Hoopla's #100 (which I'd already linked) and Hoopla's #230.

The #230 is very interesting as it introduces the concept of randomness and how people tend to interpret what is random a lot differently from what is truly random. The gist of it is that when you get 3 people (ie. the scum team) to pick 3 numbers in consultation with each other, they'll try to make the numbers look a bit "random" lest they leave an obvious link to one of their scumbuddies. What that means is that they usually avoid patterns like 4,6,8 or 6,7,8 or other number sequences, even though these are just as likely to come up in a random number generator.

So if we take that line of thinking and put it into context: I'm currently voting Stryker (10), so I consider it very unlikely that he's in a scum team with both Smudger (6) and Belisarius (8), although there could still be one scum among them. So 6, 10, ? and 8, 10, ? are possible, but I'd consider a sequence of 6, 8, 10 highly unlikely for the scum team.

Just some food for thought.

In both theses posts we go back to the number analysis theories presented, and I know getting caught up in them is not helping at this stage of the game as IIRC PPP (Pecan) has suggested. But here is a thought, the 2 people who have introduced these theories are obviously versed in them and have bought them in as guides for us, but as there is so much randomness involved here, would not throwing a dart at a board with the numbers selected by those in a game be just as good at saying, "this person is probably scum because their number is high or low"? What I am trying to say could this just not be a way of confusing us and focusing attention on those that fit the criteria both models present so we tunnel away at those holding those numbers? I know this has been suggested but could not one of PPP and Siveure, or both, actually be using this to their advantage?

[Smudger]

Ok, so Siveure is town.
So is pecan

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

And how the hell is my pick of over 9000 relevant? I could have picked TWO and I wouldn't be implicating myself.

I see it as relevant, but I think it implicates him as town.

VOTE: Belisarius leaving an RVS on a town?

So the two people who have introduced opposing number theories to us are town? theories that basically I find confusing and of no use other than to make me look at everyone at the top of the draft pick and the persons holding number 1 and possibly number 4?

thanks that is a great comfort.

[Smudger]

My weekend begins tomorrow so will not be that active until Sunday

[Smudger]

Well that an interesting way of assessing who is who, or is it? Currently its based on what you term Driver Tell, and I will go Google this to see what it is all about. I don't understand though you state I have a high driver tell? what does this mean? to introduce this now and then say it is not much help, is not much help really. But as I understand it the reason for this is people have not posted a lot, especially those who are lurking?

I went and had a look at the site www.lyintamer.com all I could find was a lot of archive video footage of interviews, I could not actually find any links to a method that takes the content of a written document and gives you a result based on that content? Maybe I missed something? What I do see is that to truly understand her method I have to buy her book?

So not only do we have the number theories we have the Driver method and then from all that we can say so and so is scum? forgive me but I thought this game was about enjoying the hunt and doing it with what god gave us? our own brains and instinct? all this is doing is causing me more confusion right now as to who to believe. as and again do correct me if I am not reading this right but the tentative results of the number theories presented don't actually stack up against the Driver results?

number theory 1. we should be looking at those who chose number 1: Cade and Troubles
number theory 2. we should look at those who picked a particularly high number: Smudger, Belisarius, Stryker and Siveure DtTrikyp
Driver Method: what should we look at? it is confusing but basically you are stating that Freedom is giving the biggest scum read with a 10??

you say Freedom is scum with a 10, and yet there is a spread of numbers above and below that number, this is what I do not understand.
and can I ask why you do not analysis yourself?

[Smudger]

One further question, and I don't mean to offend any one:

Uh, who the hell is susan?

pieceofpecanpie

Pecans Bio says Male?

[Smudger]

Just completing a wall post as I know some questions have been asked of me, this will hopefully be covered in that post

[Smudger]

Getting back to the game and to answer a question directed at me. , my feelings so far regarding everyone:

I can’t get any reads on

Cade, Crimml or Sakura

, as there is nothing to go on.

Mutley

No idea? could be Scum could be Town, could even be TP (if we had any in game), his interaction, it is dismissive, bordering on arrogant and somewhat frustrating. But I am being subjective here. Mutley give us something to go on please?

Pecan

, leans town with me. IMO an ability to be active and present a good argument within the discussion gives a town read first and foremost. This is further augmented by the ability to focus primarily on the content of questions and not the negativity, thus able to give balanced responses.

Troubles

leaning town for the same reasons as stated for Pecan but not as strong as Pecan.

Xdaamno

slight scum read, but based on lack of content than much else. Although this rather off handed comment here regarding town has my interest

Yes it would. That information is already available to you.

Yeah man, that's true, but I don't really have the time... haha. I would usually think that's up to you, since otherwise you've presented the town with entirely nonfunctional information which 'might' be able to be turned into something useful? Also, wanna speak a bit more about the methodology?

Freedom

Scum leaning here also, and this is due to post content, there is actually not a lot of hunting going on, some agreement to others comments, some other unrelated BS regarding an Avi but not much else. So in this respect maybe I do agree with Janine.

Beli

null read to be honest even after the Driver method posts, I don't know if he is trying to be a help or hindrance, I suppose some more explanation regarding his offered Method would not hurt and the reason why he is not in his list.

Siveure DtTrikyp

town reading here, again actively hunting and providing food for thought, even with the number theory, which is causing my head to hurt.

Deckard

leaning very slight scum as I am interested to understand how contradiction is not a scummy trait as IMO, it is, but only if reasonable and acceptable explanation can be given to explain it. But repeated and consistent contradiction is a sign of lying is it not?

Alabaska J

Slightly tipping town. Can’t really put a finger on it, his post content again would seem to be balanced and responsive to questions asked, and I cannot find much that would at this stage be contentious IMO.

Stryker

I have to agree with all those who have placed there vote here and in particular the case that has been presented by Pecan in 84. I will add to this though as since the case was presented Stryker has not been on to defend himself. In fact has gone particularly quite. So unless the player is replaced then it would seem that Stryker is a strong lynch candidate. Three posts with very little content plus a picture in a forth post.

So I have more scum reads than possible in the game, I agree, but that is what I am getting at this moment in time. So based on everything so far:

VOTE: Stryker

[Smudger]

Huh, you really buy pecan's case on Stryker? Stryker's made 4 post, and pecan's case was worded to imply he found all of them extremely scummy - and yet, looking at them, the most I get out of them is disinterested/idiosyncratic.

I agree, but then the case is a least a case, and Stryker's lack of responses and being in thread don't help the game. Hopefully the player will be replaced out, and we can get on. If you pushed me to vote on another player then I would say my vote would go to you or Freedom, based on my observations above, and then those are slight. The trouble is with all this talk about numbers and "driver Method", in essence we have a small number of players consistently posting and then 4 who are absent, this does not help at all.

[Smudger]

Huh, you really buy pecan's case on Stryker? Stryker's made 4 post, and pecan's case was worded to imply he found all of them extremely scummy - and yet, looking at them, the most I get out of them is disinterested/idiosyncratic.

I agree, but then the case is a least a case, and Stryker's lack of responses and being in thread don't help the game. Hopefully the player will be replaced out, and we can get on. If you pushed me to vote on another player then I would say my vote would go to you or Freedom, based on my observations above, and then those are slight. The trouble is with all this talk about numbers and "driver Method"

my appreciation of the play of those people providing the methods is clouded,

in essence we have a small number of players consistently posting and then 4 who are absent, this does not help at all.

Fixed

[Smudger]

darn it...

[Smudger]

Smudged why feel the need to bring up TP. When there clearly isn't one?

the bit in brackets hopefully gave it away, however to expand more, because until right now your responses were not helping the game, so call it frustration call it whatever you want the point I was trying to make is that the posts you have made were of no help in me determining your alignment.

[Smudger]

Eg the yes or no answer shit. I never give a yes or no answer in real life cos I like to wind people up

never? really??

[Smudger]

Smudged why feel the need to bring up TP. When there clearly isn't one?

the bit in brackets hopefully gave it away, however to expand more, because until right now your responses were not helping the game, so call it frustration call it whatever you want the point I was trying to make is that the posts you have made were of no help in me determining your alignment.

My point being there was no need to even mention it. Seems like you were trying to add more doubt over me somehow.

Nope just want you active that is all,

[Smudger]

Sakura, I do qualify why there is a difference and I actually quote the post that makes me lean more towards Xdaamo as scum that you. Yes you have both been as active as each other in the number of posts. but content wise you do not stand out for me as much as Xdaamo.

[Smudger]

This is not a defense of any kind, but I believe Deckard and I picked the same number, so do you believe that him and I picked the same numbers?

what?

[Smudger]

Troubles leaning town for the same reasons as stated for Pecan but not as strong as Pecan.

I'm not sure of this, but are all of those inherently town? Because it seems to me scum could do the same things.[/quote]

yes agreed, but that is how I am interpreting what is happening at the moment, I may well be wrong, but that is how I am leaning on those 2.

[Smudger]

^^ that should be a quote of

Troubles leaning town for the same reasons as stated for Pecan but not as strong as Pecan.
I'm not sure of this, but are all of those inherently town? Because it seems to me scum could do the same things.

but as there is an "end quote" mid way through it ended the quote. I have removed the "end quote" here to make it read better

[Smudger]

If you're gonna use meta against me at least do your research properly.

so you go from strong defensive, to oh well lynch me:

Smudger/sakura/deckard is a little weird just b/c 4/5/6.

just kill me, and good luck Town.

don't get it tbh.

201 by Smudger is a slight improvement of Deckard, but giving a list of complete reads is something that bothers me. If you are town, it gives scum a roadmap as to who they should NK and who they can mislynch.

Good point had never thought about it in that way, so why do people push for players to give their reads? and should we be considering those who do, or at least the reasons behind them asking?

e.g.

Hey, so um, I'd kindof like smudger to say what reads he's gotten so far.

[Smudger]

UNVOTE:

Yesterday welcome, so far a greater improvement on Stryker.

[Smudger]

Oh yeah. I messed up on the first quote. Was I trying to trick you...?

Incidentally, I was discussing a particular scumtell with my friend yesterday. My opinion is that things which could be

construed

as scummy, but aren't really, are jumped on by scum more often. Now, whether or not my post was objectionable, I hope it's obvious that a) it was intended as an out-of-game aside, nothing to do with scumhunting or trying to implicate Elyse - what I said is NOT a scumtell on Elyse, and b) I'm a slightly better player than to try and misquote somebody else as Elyse presuming nobody will notice.

My original PBPA of pecan had a lot more posts I found scummy, so I'll review those later if I have time.

(shiiiiiiit so busy)

So this was a test to see who would jump on you and vote? You are saying that your post was deliberately constructed by you to highlight the discussion between you and your friend on scum tells? So during your conversation did you discuss the possibility that town would jump on the same types of posts, in particular if they were actively looking and saw an opportunity to question a player about their play? What I get as a flip to your discussion is that you are suggesting players should ignore these types of posts if town as they could easily be branded as scum by those who have bought into this theory?

[Smudger]

that is how your follow up post reads to me

you start out with "Oh yeah. I messed up on the first quote. Was I trying to trick you...?"

was I trying to trick you...? a question, was that a true question? or in fact rhetorical when considered against the following paragraph? thus the inference I picked up on

[Smudger]

Ok, am on my phone and was reading the threads saw this threads activity and logged in. So having now caught up with the thread and you all seem to have been busy over the last few hours. First and foremost it is interesting to see that Sakura has done a 360 on the giving up lunch me attitude, in particular as the connection between Declard and her has grown, Well that is what it seems to me.

The case against Deckard looks conclusive and in particular Yesterday's picks on the list and timing issues are, IMO, spot on they cannot be faulted. Yesterday any reason you keep calling Deckard Decklan? Small point and of no real consequence,

VOTE: Deckard

[Smudger]

My weekend so my input will be down.

I acknoeledge Pecans vote and will answer any questions come Sunday. Also see the call for mass claim. This is my first time on this set up so dont know how it would affect the game or not. Probably not and tbh I have no problem with it in particular as I am rightly where many are focused as I got first pick. Also Pecan is correct to look at me with regard to my position in the draft, but what I can Say is the reasoning why works both ways And it is just as likely that my position would be used to set me up so to speak, and look Forward also to hearing from all but Especially Yesterday, on what he may have for us?

[Smudger]

Hello everyone, seems I am lynch candidate number still, I also see the discussion about claiming etc and see that Yesterday has claimed Cop.. which is interesting to be honest because last night I was blocked/prevented while trying to investigate him. Whether you believe that or not seems immaterial at this point in time as it would appear you have mostly made your minds up. It seemed to me that the slot needed to be looked at considering that the previous incumbent had taken it close to being lynched, I was also probably like many of you, reading Yesterdays inputs and thinking, "town, has to be town", but then I am conscious that he would appear to be an experienced player with a track record, his opening post on taking over says as much, and the intimation that his playing style is well known was something that made me stop and think. therefore I tried to investigate him as it seemed too good to be true.

[Smudger]

what do you think I am claiming Yesterday, is it that difficult?

[Smudger]

why would I claim tracker?

[Smudger]

does this sound like the statement a tracker would make?

which is interesting to be honest because last night I was blocked/prevented while trying to investigate him

I am claiming Cop.

[Smudger]

LOL LOL LOL LOL

Another confirmed scum; no one put him to L-1 since he'll self-hammer and there's still more stuff I want to get out.

if you would care to explain, why you think I am fake claiming here, you are the one with the fake claim and of course know who Town are thus your list of "town players" is your buddy in there, should be somewhere I think

[Smudger]

Seems you are getting a little ahead of yourself, so your buddy is either Xdaamno or TMT

[Smudger]

I don't "think" you're fake-claiming. I know you are. I'm cop and I wouldn't fake-claim a role I didn't have as scum since that's well..stupid.

You had to though since you didn't have a fake-claim option due to picking roleblocker and being caught roleblocking me.

this smacks of WIFOM. I know I am the cop and tried to investigate you last night but was blocked?

[Smudger]

This basically says to me that it is you who is the roleblocker or JT, you knew I had to have a least the Cop PR and so you blocked me, thus enabling you to set up this current situation.

[Smudger]

Lol you realize the more you post the more you help us have content to read your partner from?

I mean there's no point for you to even pretend you're town anymore. If I've read correctly someone has a report of you visiting me last night; if you visited me last night you wouldn't have been roleblocked since roleblocked people cannot visit meaning you're 100% confirmed scum from that alone. Add to that I wouldn't randomly claim a role I didn't have as scum since it'd lead towards being lynched if not that day guaranteed the following day and I wouldn't be bussing a 1-shot vig partner without them getting their vig shot of first. So really you're as confirmed scum as they come.

I don't agree at all with what you are saying, you say that you have read that some one saw me visiting you last night, I don't see that, all I know is that I tried to investigate you and could not. As for how you seem to be able to twist the way the roles have been chosen well that's great, but then of course you are doing that to ensure you remain safe, the only difference being that its the other way around and you are the one who is fake claiming and this is a setup to have me mis-lynched, thud ensuring the one PR available to win this game for town is taken out, leaving the way open for a scum win.

[Smudger]

Look I'm not going to back-and-forth with you. Anyone walking in here will realize you're confirmed scum; you can keep trying to deny it all you want but it's a fact.

Anyway don't think I'm going to glean too much more from re-reading at the moment. Will take a break and try again later.

then stop trying to have the last say and leave it alone. If you don't want a back and forth with me, but I do with you, you are lying and trying to set me up that is the simple fact, you are the JK your slot was dodgy before you took it over and now you are trying to remove that stigma by being active and with your reads. But the simple fact it they are your reads and you are manipulating what has been a very quite game. So I am not going to leave it alone.

[Smudger]

can we get this done please as it would seem I have no way of recovering this situation,

[Smudger]

I can't believe you are still debating this.....

[Smudger]

where am I currently L-2?

[Smudger]

VOTE: Smudger

[Smudger]

anyone that hasn't hypojailed

can you explain this to me please?

[Smudger]

ahh I see, that will happen sooner than you think..

[Smudger]

Night night....

[Smudger]

Yesterday... all my troubles seem so far away,

then you came and I got Lynched. Well played Sir if you want a hat to eat as Sakura suggest you can have mine as I take it off to you.


Anyway, I was lost to be honest, my Partners kept disappearing and as you will see from the scum QT http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/6YyfEaVVSZ4

we were inexperienced and I was on my own for a lot of the time even to a point where, when AA joined she forgot she was scum! go figure. Anyway at first I thought I hate this setup, but now I will play it again on either side and know where to try and not make the wrong choices/decisions.